Author Topic: We shouldn't use a 2016 first round pick in a trade for Demarcus Cousins  (Read 13595 times)

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Offline Vermont Green

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Trying to pick the odds of landing the #1 or a top 3 pick in a draft more than a year away is pretty hard to do but in 2016, it is possible (although highly unlikely) that we will have 4 lottery picks (Our own, Brooklyn, Dallas, Cleveland).  LeBron and Love might opt out and Irving might get hurt but let's say that is not likely.  Boston, Brooklyn, and Dallas all could realistically be in the lottery though.

So we can be conservative and say that we get picks 12, 13 and 14.  If that were the case, we would have a 1.8% chance of the #1 pick and a 2.6% chance at a top 3.  Not great odds and certainly not good enough odds to start planning your future around.

A more optimistic scenario is that Brooklyn craters, Boston is mediocre, and Dallas just misses the playoffs and we end up in position of #6, #10, and #14.  Our odds balloon up to 6.9% for #1 and 9.25% for top 3.  I know these odds are diminished because Dallas has protections but not by all that much if you assume they are in the 14th position.  I think my point is that <1% prediction is possible but pretty pessimistic.

Do what you will with these odds but I think it is Danny's plan that having more picks will lead to more chances and then something good will finally happen to one of them.  That something good could be a ping pong ball result or a trade.
I believe the Cleveland 1st went to the Suns in the IT trade.

Yes, correct, I missed that.  This is just another confirmation that this is a very difficult probability to calculate accurately at this point.  Some others pointed out the flaw in Nickgenta's original assumption so it seems that is settled.  I think we all get the idea now.  We have a much better chance of getting a top pick because we have 3 picks.  Hopefully every can agree on that.

And yes, I would trade any of these 2016 picks in a package for Cousins, but probably not all of them.

Offline EWP43

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I haven't seen a lot of Cousins, but know that he is a beast.  I was really enjoying watching the highlights, specifically he has a pretty nice looking jump shot, especially for a big.

Offline fairweatherfan

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Trying to pick the odds of landing the #1 or a top 3 pick in a draft more than a year away is pretty hard to do but in 2016, it is possible (although highly unlikely) that we will have 4 lottery picks (Our own, Brooklyn, Dallas, Cleveland).  LeBron and Love might opt out and Irving might get hurt but let's say that is not likely.  Boston, Brooklyn, and Dallas all could realistically be in the lottery though.

So we can be conservative and say that we get picks 12, 13 and 14.  If that were the case, we would have a 1.8% chance of the #1 pick and a 2.6% chance at a top 3.  Not great odds and certainly not good enough odds to start planning your future around.

A more optimistic scenario is that Brooklyn craters, Boston is mediocre, and Dallas just misses the playoffs and we end up in position of #6, #10, and #14.  Our odds balloon up to 6.9% for #1 and 9.25% for top 3.  I know these odds are diminished because Dallas has protections but not by all that much if you assume they are in the 14th position.  I think my point is that <1% prediction is possible but pretty pessimistic.

Do what you will with these odds but I think it is Danny's plan that having more picks will lead to more chances and then something good will finally happen to one of them.  That something good could be a ping pong ball result or a trade.
I believe the Cleveland 1st went to the Suns in the IT trade.

Yes, correct, I missed that.  This is just another confirmation that this is a very difficult probability to calculate accurately at this point.  Some others pointed out the flaw in Nickgenta's original assumption so it seems that is settled.  I think we all get the idea now.  We have a much better chance of getting a top pick because we have 3 picks.  Hopefully every can agree on that.

Dallas pick is top-7 protected next year, so even if it's in the lottery we have no chance of securing a top 3 pick with it. 

EDIT: Ah looks like you mentioned that.

Offline Celtics4ever

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Cousins is a sure thing, the draft pick is not.  How guys cannot see this simple matter is beyond me.

I don't think he will be available.