New article takes in depth look at 76ers strategy

[colincb]

The hype over Ricky Rubio was WAAAAAAAY greater than for Saric and how has he turned out?  Rubio doesn't quite deserve my favorite nickname for him, "El Busto", but he's like a worse-shooting version of Rondo who can't pass or rebound quite as well.

Having said that, having the rights to Saric isn't a bad thing.  He could turn out to be a player.  But what are the odds of Saric being a lot better than MCW, who Philly just chucked over the side?

Mike

Ricky Rubio is starting to look legit and he's only 24.  He's been really good this season since he's come back.

Also, look at Nikola Mirotic this year.  He's was hyped about the same as Saric and he's the #2 rookie after Wiggins easily.  He is really helping that Bulls team.  Europe isn't the bball backwater it once was

I was a Rubio hater last year.  His shooting was Rondo-esque.  But unbelievably, he seems to have corrected his form somewhat and he looks a lot more natural shooting the ball since his injury.  Rondo should hire his shooting coach.

He shoots 23% from 3 and 20% from 0-3 feet and 37% overall.  His PER's pretty much the same and his defensive rating has gone backwards. Other than being pretty much the same offensively and regressing defensively, he's great.

[colincb]

The hype over Ricky Rubio was WAAAAAAAY greater than for Saric and how has he turned out?  Rubio doesn't quite deserve my favorite nickname for him, "El Busto", but he's like a worse-shooting version of Rondo who can't pass or rebound quite as well.

Having said that, having the rights to Saric isn't a bad thing.  He could turn out to be a player.  But what are the odds of Saric being a lot better than MCW, who Philly just chucked over the side?

Mike

Ricky Rubio is starting to look legit and he's only 24.  He's been really good this season since he's come back.

Also, look at Nikola Mirotic this year.  He's was hyped about the same as Saric and he's the #2 rookie after Wiggins easily.  He is really helping that Bulls team.  Europe isn't the bball backwater it once was

See my last post for Rubio. He still sucks.

Mirotic came over and was much more hyped than Saric.  I'd be very surprised if Saric ends up being great despite his Youtube highlights.  Not a great shooter.

[celticsclay]

The hype over Ricky Rubio was WAAAAAAAY greater than for Saric and how has he turned out?  Rubio doesn't quite deserve my favorite nickname for him, "El Busto", but he's like a worse-shooting version of Rondo who can't pass or rebound quite as well.

Having said that, having the rights to Saric isn't a bad thing.  He could turn out to be a player.  But what are the odds of Saric being a lot better than MCW, who Philly just chucked over the side?

Mike

Ricky Rubio is starting to look legit and he's only 24.  He's been really good this season since he's come back.

Also, look at Nikola Mirotic this year.  He's was hyped about the same as Saric and he's the #2 rookie after Wiggins easily.  He is really helping that Bulls team.  Europe isn't the bball backwater it once was

Mirotic is 24 and has been playing professionally, so comparing him to a draft class where half the top ten is injured and the guys are 19-21 is a bit unfair. Don't get me wrong, I think he is a really solid player, but it definitely isn't clear he will ever be an all star at this point. Same thing with Rubio, I am not down on him by any stretch but think his limitations prevent him from being a "hit" as a high lottery pick. If you have to wait a few seasons after drafting a guy you would really need him to be a total star to make up for that waiting time.

[PickNRoll]

The hype over Ricky Rubio was WAAAAAAAY greater than for Saric and how has he turned out?  Rubio doesn't quite deserve my favorite nickname for him, "El Busto", but he's like a worse-shooting version of Rondo who can't pass or rebound quite as well.

Having said that, having the rights to Saric isn't a bad thing.  He could turn out to be a player.  But what are the odds of Saric being a lot better than MCW, who Philly just chucked over the side?

Mike

Ricky Rubio is starting to look legit and he's only 24.  He's been really good this season since he's come back.

Also, look at Nikola Mirotic this year.  He's was hyped about the same as Saric and he's the #2 rookie after Wiggins easily.  He is really helping that Bulls team.  Europe isn't the bball backwater it once was

I was a Rubio hater last year.  His shooting was Rondo-esque.  But unbelievably, he seems to have corrected his form somewhat and he looks a lot more natural shooting the ball since his injury.  Rondo should hire his shooting coach.

He shoots 23% from 3 and 20% from 0-3 feet and 37% overall.  His PER's pretty much the same and his defensive rating has gone backwards. Other than being pretty much the same offensively and regressing defensively, he's great.

He's shooting .297 on threes for the year, but yeah, not good.  I haven't checked in on the wolves lately and he's on another brutal shooting stretch.  I was optimistic after seeing his first game back.

[colincb]

The hype over Ricky Rubio was WAAAAAAAY greater than for Saric and how has he turned out?  Rubio doesn't quite deserve my favorite nickname for him, "El Busto", but he's like a worse-shooting version of Rondo who can't pass or rebound quite as well.

Having said that, having the rights to Saric isn't a bad thing.  He could turn out to be a player.  But what are the odds of Saric being a lot better than MCW, who Philly just chucked over the side?

Mike

Ricky Rubio is starting to look legit and he's only 24.  He's been really good this season since he's come back.

Also, look at Nikola Mirotic this year.  He's was hyped about the same as Saric and he's the #2 rookie after Wiggins easily.  He is really helping that Bulls team.  Europe isn't the bball backwater it once was

I was a Rubio hater last year.  His shooting was Rondo-esque.  But unbelievably, he seems to have corrected his form somewhat and he looks a lot more natural shooting the ball since his injury.  Rondo should hire his shooting coach.

He shoots 23% from 3 and 20% from 0-3 feet and 37% overall.  His PER's pretty much the same and his defensive rating has gone backwards. Other than being pretty much the same offensively and regressing defensively, he's great.

He's shooting .297 on threes for the year, but yeah, not good.  I haven't checked in on the wolves lately and he's on another brutal shooting stretch.  I was optimistic after seeing his first game back.

You're right, I pulled my numbers in error from his % of shot from each distance stats. 

Still shot only 31% from 0-3 feet, 29% from beyond the arc, and under 37% overall. 2015 TS% is 47.9% which is 359th in the NBA and quite a bit worse than Rondo's career 50.3% TS% for comparison.

[MBunge]

I'm way to lazy to do it myself but I'd love to see somebody take on the fact that the media types who seem most in love with Hinkie's strategy appear to be the analytics crowd.  But I've never seen anyone actually crunch the numbers on whether what Hinkie is doing will lead to any statistically meaningful advantages.  Like how much of a correlation can you draw in NBA history between having one of the bottom two records in a season and getting a franchise-level star in the draft because of it.

Mike

Duncan's the easy one (obviously). Hakeem.

If you give me a barometer of 'franchise level' I can whip something up. It's a slow day for me.

Nope, Duncan does not count.  San Antonio only had the third worst record in the league, they won 5 and 6 more games than the bottom two teams and had only one more loss than the 4th worst record.

And since the pro-tanking argument is all about championships, the standard should probably be best player on a team that makes it to the Finals with the team that drafted him.

Mike

[Moranis]

I'm way to lazy to do it myself but I'd love to see somebody take on the fact that the media types who seem most in love with Hinkie's strategy appear to be the analytics crowd.  But I've never seen anyone actually crunch the numbers on whether what Hinkie is doing will lead to any statistically meaningful advantages.  Like how much of a correlation can you draw in NBA history between having one of the bottom two records in a season and getting a franchise-level star in the draft because of it.

Mike

Duncan's the easy one (obviously). Hakeem.

If you give me a barometer of 'franchise level' I can whip something up. It's a slow day for me.

Nope, Duncan does not count.  San Antonio only had the third worst record in the league, they won 5 and 6 more games than the bottom two teams and had only one more loss than the 4th worst record.

And since the pro-tanking argument is all about championships, the standard should probably be best player on a team that makes it to the Finals with the team that drafted him.

Mike

Well I know the Cavs did that.  They tied for the worst record in the league, landed the #1 pick, took Lebron, and reached the finals in Lebron's 4th season (same draft the Heat had the 4th worst record and drafted Wade).

Magic were the 2nd worst team in the league, landed the #1 pick, took Shaq, and reached the finals in Shaq's 3rd season (it did help that they won the lottery the next year after barely missing the playoffs).

Houston was the worst team in the league took Ralph Sampson at #1 and then was the 2nd worst team in the league the next year and took Hakeem at #1.  That seemed to work out fairly well for them. 

It is much more about being bad in the right draft then being bad. 

[D.o.s.]

I'm way to lazy to do it myself but I'd love to see somebody take on the fact that the media types who seem most in love with Hinkie's strategy appear to be the analytics crowd.  But I've never seen anyone actually crunch the numbers on whether what Hinkie is doing will lead to any statistically meaningful advantages.  Like how much of a correlation can you draw in NBA history between having one of the bottom two records in a season and getting a franchise-level star in the draft because of it.

Mike

Duncan's the easy one (obviously). Hakeem.

If you give me a barometer of 'franchise level' I can whip something up. It's a slow day for me.

Nope, Duncan does not count.  San Antonio only had the third worst record in the league, they won 5 and 6 more games than the bottom two teams and had only one more loss than the 4th worst record.

And since the pro-tanking argument is all about championships, the standard should probably be best player on a team that makes it to the Finals with the team that drafted him.

Mike

Whoops, you're right about San Antonio.

Much Busier today, but for anyone that might be interested:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/
http://bkref.com/tiny/Opild

[GetLucky]

Dwight Howard also carried the Magic to the Finals in 2009.

[D.o.s.]

Dwight Howard Stan Van Gundy also carried the Magic to the Finals in 2009.

 

[GetLucky]

Dwight Howard Stan Van Gundy also carried the Magic to the Finals in 2009.

 

hahah You'd've thought all that work would burn more Calories

Regardless, there are other progressive methods of losing weight without excercising, like pushing tires, digging ditches, and building f****** walls.

[Donoghus]

Dwight Howard also carried the Magic to the Finals in 2009.

I remember Dickie V ranting & raving in outrage for ORL taking Howard over Okafor. 

[LHR]

Great read.

Not mentioned in this column, and I discussed it with Brent Barry and Sean Deveney back on my show a few weeks ago - this was a strategy employed by Jerry Krause in the late 90s, early 2000s.  In fact, Krause wanted to rip apart the Bulls as soon as the summer of '97 to deliberately take them into the lottery year-after-year hoping he could rebuild another championship nucleus through a slew of lottery picks.

He got his slew of lotto picks, but so many of them never worked out largely because they were playing for a team that didn't implement any accountability upon their players.  The one pick that did work out for them (Brand) was traded because they felt he was going to put them in the "dreaded NBA middle" - thus costing the Bulls a chance at drafting the next superstar.

The Celtics are doing this the right way.  I'll be writing a column on this shortly on CLNS Radio. They've created so many options for themselves, where - if they win the lottery, great.  But if they lose it, it's no big deal because they've just created endless possibilities.

The future is very, very bright ...

[D.o.s.]

^The Bulls example is a great one for looking at the sort of middling disaster that can emerge from this strategy, particularly when you're impatient.

Off the top of my head (i.e. I think, but I'd need to double check), they could've fielded a team that featured some combination of (a motivated) Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, (pre-ACL) Brand, and LaMarcus Aldridge. That's an intimidating frontcourt, to say the least.

Dwight Howard also carried the Magic to the Finals in 2009.

I remember Dickie V ranting & raving in outrage for ORL taking Howard over Okafor.

IIRC Simmons did the same thing. The split was pretty even between the two camps.

[slamtheking]

Dwight Howard Stan Van Gundy also carried the Magic to the Finals in 2009.

 

also throw in that KG and Powe going down with injuries that year is the only reason they weren't bounced by the C's in the second round.  That Orlando team barely got by what was left of the C's that year which was very telling since the C's were gassed after the battle with Chicago in the prior round.