Author Topic: Playoff Stock Watch  (Read 15716 times)

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Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #15 on: March 03, 2015, 04:03:11 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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I really think all 5 of those other teams should finish better than the C's by the time the season is over.  They all have better talent and should be ashamed if they finish lower than a Celtics team whose frontcourt has been hurt with injuries, traded their best 2 players and had a revolving-door roster this year.

We have the best organization.  It's not just about the talent with jerseys on.  Coaching and front office are invisible winners. 

EDIT: Not entirely fair to Indiana, their injuries weren't really their fault.  Everyone else though, absolutely.


The Bucks have lost 4 out of the last 5 with the last 2 losses against the Lakers and Jazz.  I think they should have held onto Brandon Knight.  I wonder if they will continue to slide but they have a comfortable 6 1/2 game lead on the 7th seed.

Yeah that was a puzzling move with Jason Kidd's fingerprints all over it.  I think he sees more in MCW than Knight, but it's threatening to make one of the better stories of the season sputter to a disappointing finish.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2015, 04:15:59 PM by foulweatherfan »

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #16 on: March 03, 2015, 04:59:02 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I think the Bucks could really regress, but they have a substantial lead. However, this trade, at least for the short term, changed them from a frisky team that played really well together to a team that rebuilding mid stream. They weren't winning the east this year, but i do wonder what their ceiling would have been with a healthy Parker and a free agent piece or two.

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2015, 03:22:31 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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The other teams in the chase have not been doing the Celtics any favors.

Charlotte won by 1 point against LA, following the victories by the Nets and the Heat before. Only the Nets truly scored an upset, but these are all flawed teams that have been losing to bad teams all year. Last night's thrashing aside, it will be interesting to see how the Celtics matchup with a Jazz team that has been playing much better since trading Kanter. They really need a win tonight to keep any sort of momentum.

 I hope that this thread does not prove to be completely unnecessary in a few games time. Let's enjoy it while we can folks.

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #18 on: March 04, 2015, 04:13:29 PM »

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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The other teams in the chase have not been doing the Celtics any favors.

Charlotte won by 1 point against LA, following the victories by the Nets and the Heat before. Only the Nets truly scored an upset, but these are all flawed teams that have been losing to bad teams all year. Last night's thrashing aside, it will be interesting to see how the Celtics matchup with a Jazz team that has been playing much better since trading Kanter. They really need a win tonight to keep any sort of momentum.

 I hope that this thread does not prove to be completely unnecessary in a few games time. Let's enjoy it while we can folks.

Defensive Cs like Gobert really mess up our team - especially without Sully.  It's definitely a winnable game, but the Jazz are coming together right now.

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #19 on: March 05, 2015, 01:04:06 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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So quick recap after last night's games

Charlotte beat fellow playoff contender Detroit in a game Detroit probably needed more. Detroit had now lost 4 in a row (including a real head scratcher to the knicks) and are 4 losses out of the 8th seed. 5 out of their next 6 are on the road and against Western conference teams so Detroit really could be the first team to drop out of the race.

Miami - Had a home win, but it was hardly an impressive one. They were down to the Laker's halfway through the 4th quarter before Wade started a parade to the free throw lane (11-12). Would have been awesome to see a loss, but I remain unimpressed with their prospects of running away with a playoff spot. Their second team remains an abomination and I laugh every time I see Beasely or bill walker in the game for this team.  Our home game against the next week will be a big test.

Brooklyn got completely routed by Charlotte and never made it a contest. It was a pretty big turnaround after the Nets held off Golden State a few nights ago. Will be interesting to see what they do in their next game against the Suns in the Plumlee super bowl.

Overall, much needed win last night keeps this thread going!
« Last Edit: March 05, 2015, 01:14:57 PM by celticsclay »

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #20 on: March 05, 2015, 01:16:48 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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So quick recap after last night's games

Charlotte beat fellow playoff contender Detroit in a game Detroit probably needed more. Detroit had now lost 4 in a row (including a real head scratcher to the knicks) and are 4 losses out of the 8th seed. 5 out of their next 6 are on the road and against Western conference teams so Detroit really could be the first team to drop out of the race.

Miami - Had a home win, but it was hardly an impressive one. They were down to the Laker's halfway through the 4th quarter before Wade started a parade to the free throw lane (11-12). Would have been awesome to see a loss, but I remain unimpressed with their prospects of running away with a playoff spot. Their second team remains an abomination and I laugh every time I see Beasely or bill walker in the game for this team.  Our home game against the next week will be a big test.

Brooklyn got completely routed by Charlotte and never made it a contest. It was a pretty big turnaround after the Nets held off Golden State a few nights ago. Will be interesting to see what they do in their next game against the Suns in the Plumlee super bowl.

Overall, much needed win last night keeps this thread going!

I'd venture to say Detroit is out of it now. And I thought if we lost last night we were out of it. As well as the other teams in the race are playing right now, I think we need every winnable game we can get. Mcgee should definitely help if he can keep his head on straight, and I think Brad is just the guy to do it.

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #21 on: March 05, 2015, 01:56:38 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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Kemba Walker is supposed to be back next week.  Paul George will probably be back in a couple weeks.  If both of those occur, it is hard to see us getting past Indy or Charlotte. 

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #22 on: March 05, 2015, 02:23:55 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Kemba Walker is supposed to be back next week.  Paul George will probably be back in a couple weeks.  If both of those occur, it is hard to see us getting past Indy or Charlotte.

Kemba walker is probably pretty highly overrated from his run with UConn and ability to hit big shots. The fact is, the hornets actually played worse with him this season than without him. He was shooting 39% from the field which is pretty bad and he gets his 19 points on 17 shots. His return will most likely send Mo Williams to the bench more, who has playing amazingly (almost 20 pts and 10 assists per game on 44% shooting).

I tend to agree with you about George because the Pacers may already be a bit ahead of the other teams because of their veterans and team cohesion. However, to expect much from a guy that has been out of basketball for almost a year is asking a lot. I have no idea how a broken leg impacts explosiveness timing etc. If the Celtics can't make it, my second favorite thing would be to see the pacers with George play the Cavs in the playoffs.

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #23 on: March 06, 2015, 02:32:23 AM »

Offline LatterDayCelticsfan

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Is Miles Plumlee still with the Suns? I thought he was traded
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Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #24 on: March 06, 2015, 01:06:44 PM »

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Is Miles Plumlee still with the Suns? I thought he was traded
Yes, he is in Milwaukee now.

Suns have Alex Len and Brandon Wright at center now.

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #25 on: March 06, 2015, 02:50:30 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Is Miles Plumlee still with the Suns? I thought he was traded
Yes, he is in Milwaukee now.

Suns have Alex Len and Brandon Wright at center now.

That was my mistake. Back on playoffs watch, tonight has a lot of action going on.
We have a very challenging game ahead of us with the pelicans. I think they represent a particularly bad matchup for us between Davis and Asik. The idea of Zeller trying to stop Davis is pretty overwhelming. We could get some help tonight with Brooklyn, Charlotte and the Pacers all have games that could go either way. If they all lose, I will less discouraged by a beatdown from the pelicans.

It would be pretty amazing if we could win!

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #26 on: March 06, 2015, 02:56:06 PM »

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Betting lines according to ESPN for the important games tonight:

Toronto vs Hornets: Toronto are 1 point favorites
Bulls vs Pacers: Indiana are 6 point favorites (wait, what???)
Heat vs Wizards: Wiz are 4.5 point favorites
Suns vs Nets: Nets are 2.5 point favorites (odd, but I guess that's ok)
Pistons vs Rockets: Houston are 6.5 point favorites
Celtics vs Pelicans: NO are 7 point favorites

Hold on though, Indy is favored by 6 vs Chicago?  That is crazy.  If I gambled I'd be all over that

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #27 on: March 06, 2015, 03:15:57 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Betting lines according to ESPN for the important games tonight:

Toronto vs Hornets: Toronto are 1 point favorites
Bulls vs Pacers: Indiana are 6 point favorites (wait, what???)
Heat vs Wizards: Wiz are 4.5 point favorites
Suns vs Nets: Nets are 2.5 point favorites (odd, but I guess that's ok)
Pistons vs Rockets: Houston are 6.5 point favorites
Celtics vs Pelicans: NO are 7 point favorites

Hold on though, Indy is favored by 6 vs Chicago?  That is crazy.  If I gambled I'd be all over that

Now you are talking my language! Excellent addition to the thread so TP for that. As someone that dabbles in studying lines for entertainment purposes only, I can explain the bulls line for you. Teams on the second half of back to backs usually get a 1.5 pts less than they normally would as they historically perform worse at this level. Home court is worth 3 to 3.5 points, so if this game was in Chicago and not on a back to back for either team, Chicago would be favored by a few points. The linesmakers also view Butler's injury as pretty significant and have taken away about 2 pts for his absence. So a lot of factors going against the Bulls in that particular line.

For what it's worth, I still think it is high.

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #28 on: March 07, 2015, 10:06:07 AM »

Offline Al91

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Celtics need to play hard to close this month. They have a great opportunity to pick up some easy wins playing Orlando twice in one week, Philly, and New York. Big games against Brooklyn and Indiana plus a trap game against Detroit.

The last two weeks of the season feature games against four EC playoff teams, playing three of those teams twice. I can only hope that the Cavs sit their stars the last week when they face the Celtics twice I believe.
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Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #29 on: March 09, 2015, 12:48:34 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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So it is a new week and the Celtics find themselves in a very similar position as least week with the negative factor of having one less week to make up ground. The loss yesterday was really a painful won because it is one the Celtics should have won, and also easily could have.

1) is that the Celtics still are only 2 losses back despite the Hornets and Pacers both winning 5 in a row. 1 good week for us and two bad ones for them and we are right back in it.

2) I now feel confident that we can eliminate 1 team from this watch, the Pistons, who have played very poorly since acquiring Reggie Jackson from OKC. It was a trade to get on board with at the time because they lost a number of role players that were playing well for them, most notably Augistine. They Pistons have lost 6 straight, are 5 games back and are headed out for a west Coast trip. Here is a look at the week ahead for the 5 teams still left in it.

Miami - They are probably in the worst shape of the 5 teams still battling for the final two. In addition to the loss of Bosh, Deng, Dragic and Wade are all banged up. There have also been writers mentioning that the Heat can keep their first round pick if it is in the top 10. As of now they would pick 12th, but there are 3 teams within 2 losses of them. The Celtics have a big opportunity to get an important win against them tonight. For what it is worth, the Celtics are favored by 1.

Brooklyn - They also had a very bad week losing to a Suns team at home after leading by 7 midway through the 4th. They also lost at home to a pretty mediocre Jazz team. In the week ahead they have a matchup against fellow playoff contender Miami and a home tilt with the pelicans and then a favorable matchup against the 76ers.
 
Hornets - They have been playing really well. I actually can't wait till they get Kemba Walker back. Since he got injured the Hornets have completely turned around their season. They are 13-8 after being 10 games under .500 at the time of the injury. I think he prevents proper ball movement, shoots a poor percentage (.39%) and can only disrupt the good things going on. They have a week similar to Brooklyn with an easier game against Sacremento and two games that could go either way (reeling Washinton and injury depleted Chicago). A few weeks ago this projected as a much tougher week for them. I am starting to think if the Celtics make the playoffs it will be from catching the hornets.

Pacers- The pacers have really had the scheduling gods smiling on them recently facing a Cavs team without Lebron or Irving, the knicks twice, beat up Chicago and Philadelphia in their 5 game winning streak. The easy run continues this week against Orlando, Bucks and the C's. I still hope they lose but am not holding my breath.

Celtics - The Celtics had a really frustrating loss yesterday with the opportunity to grab a 3 game win streak after a really nice victory over the pelicans. This week starts with the huge game against the Heat, a really tough matchup for us against Memphis and a revenge chance against Orlando. A 2-1 week should be enough to keep us in the race for another week.

Let's all root for the Celtics to beat the heat tonight!
« Last Edit: March 09, 2015, 01:04:51 PM by celticsclay »