Author Topic: Playoff Stock Watch  (Read 15715 times)

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Playoff Stock Watch
« on: March 02, 2015, 01:59:45 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Hey everyone it is the start of a new week and the Celtics are still in the hunt. Despite blowing an 11 point 4th quarter lead and missing out on the chance for a 4th straight win, the Celtics are still very much in the thick of the eastern conference playoff race. Here is a quick take on how the other teams are performing, upcoming schedule and a look ahead.

Indiana - I am very worried the Pacers are going to make everyone else on this list compete for 1 playoff spot. They have won 8 of their last 10 with a two point loss to San Antonio and a road game to Oklahoma City as the only blemishes. They also are rumored to get Paul George back in a few weeks. Their next 4 games also include 2 games against the Knicks, the Bulls and Orlando. A 3-1 week would really put them in the drivers seat for getting a playoff birth in advance of George's return.

Miami- They would be in much better shape if they had not lost twice to the pelicans without Davis. Since losing Bosh they have a really mismatched roster. Dragic, Wade (when playing) and Deng form a nice starting team at the 1-3, but their frontcourt really lacks for bodies overall and their bench lacks any depth. They have been relying on Henry "don't you dare call me Billy" Walker for offense. Whiteside is still playing very well, but Birdman and Haslem don't have a ton left in the tank. Haslem may not even be in the league if it wasn't for the Godfather taking care of him when he thought Lebron was sticking around. They have some winnable games this week starting tonight at home versus Phoenix. They then play the Lakers, Sacramento and at the wizards. Would be awesome if they could somehow go 1-3, but I would even be happy with 2-2.

Detroit - They were viewed as being in pretty good shape at the trade deadline after acquiring Reggie Jackson. Fortunately for the Celtics, they have had both a tough schedule and a bad loss in the past week losing to Cleveland, the Knicks d-league affiliate and a really struggling wizards team. 7 of their next 8 games are on the road including a west coast swing that includes the Golden State, Portland, Houston and a New Orleans team playing shockingly well without Davis. This trip could actually bury the Pistons since they are already two games out. Would be great (if you want the Celtics to make the playoffs) to see one less team in the mix.

Brooklyn had a pretty good week at 2-2 on a west coast trip. They lost to Pelicans and Rockets, but had a big win in Dallas yesterday (also beat a stripped down Denver team that is playing lousy). A few weeks ago I would have said they were the team that scared me the least of the other teams jockeying with the Celtics, but they seemed to have figured things out with the addition of Young, a fairly rejuvenated D Will, Lopez playing very off the bench and solid contributions from role players. They are also the team I would least like to see make the playoffs because I don't want them building any positive momentum or having a frisky playoff performance that makes there owner decide to do something crazy to build the roster.
Brooklyn plays Golden State, Charlotte and Phoenix this week. I would be pleased with a 1-2 week.

Charlotte- - The Hornets won for just the second time in their last 8 games yesterday pulling away from the Magic in a game that was pretty close most of the way. Their next 4 games may provide some clarity to the playoff picture. After a game they should win at home against the Lakers, they get fellow playoff contenders Detroit and Brooklyn sandwiched around a game against the Raptors. After waiting most of the season for the team to build off last season's promising campaign, it seems like the Hornets are what they are. They are a good defensive team with an elite post player that is extremely inconsistent. The addition of Stephenson has been a net negative for them. Even though they get Kemba back soon, it seems like they will lose enough games to not run away with a playoff spot.

Boston The win yesterday would have really been sweet. In addition to being a win over one of the best teams in the NBA it would have given the Celtics a 4th straight win and temporarily put them in 8th place and holding a playoff spot for the first time since November or early December. The Celtics have a week that opens with a tough match up and probably loss at Cleveland followed by 3 games that could go either way (Utah, @ New Orleans (No Davis) and at Orlando). A 3-1 week would be amazing and would keep the Celtics in a very good position. 2-2 would definitely be acceptable. Worse than that and the Celtics hopes get a lot more bleak. While doing this I couldn't help but really cringe at the losses to Sacramento and LA. If the Celtics had managed to win those they would have been riding a 6 game winning streak and in 7th place.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2015, 02:18:55 PM by celticsclay »

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2015, 02:11:50 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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TP for the analysis.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2015, 02:13:57 PM »

Offline mef730

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We've got a bipolar schedule coming up.  March doesn't look too bad, but we could end up losing every game in April.  I'd love to get that 7-seed in the playoffs (even though we will likely be playing Cleveland), but it's going to be tough.

Mike

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2015, 02:25:06 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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We've got a bipolar schedule coming up.  March doesn't look too bad, but we could end up losing every game in April.  I'd love to get that 7-seed in the playoffs (even though we will likely be playing Cleveland), but it's going to be tough.

Mike

The thing about the April games is that they are very hard to predict. For example, the Cavs could really be giving Lebron, Love or Irving significant rest that month depending on where they stand with seeding. Same thing with the Bucks the last game of the season. I agree that it would be a lot nicer if it included a few matchups against Philadelphia or New York, but if there is a month to play heavy level teams it is probably April. Another thing to look out for is teams doing some strategy that could help us. If you asked the Cavs or Raptors who they would rather have in the playoffs in April. A physical and veteran heavy team in the Pacers integrating Paul George or the upstart overachieving Celtics with 1 player over 6'10 and missing Sullinger, you may see them selectively resting players versus the Celtics without really explaining why (I realize this comment can open up a big can of worms). 

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2015, 02:43:50 PM »

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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TP for a great post.  I agree that the Pacers are basically a lock right now for the playoffs - especially if George comes back.  The Nets though have to pick swap with Atlanta this year, so if they're in the lottery, they end up giving the Hawks a decent player which is frankly kind of scary.  They also then have no incentive to be out of the playoffs, so I see them going extra hard to get the extra revenue from two playoff games minimum.  The Heat will probably adjust and go on a run soon, too.  I'm not saying we're ruled out, but it's looking pretty unlikely.

I think that if we had played with this roster + Sullinger from the beginning of the season, we'd be a 6 seed, but we lost too much over the first half.  It's hard to come back from an 11 game deficit below .500.

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2015, 02:57:43 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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TP for a great post.  I agree that the Pacers are basically a lock right now for the playoffs - especially if George comes back.  The Nets though have to pick swap with Atlanta this year, so if they're in the lottery, they end up giving the Hawks a decent player which is frankly kind of scary.  They also then have no incentive to be out of the playoffs, so I see them going extra hard to get the extra revenue from two playoff games minimum.  The Heat will probably adjust and go on a run soon, too.  I'm not saying we're ruled out, but it's looking pretty unlikely.

I think that if we had played with this roster + Sullinger from the beginning of the season, we'd be a 6 seed, but we lost too much over the first half.  It's hard to come back from an 11 game deficit below .500.

TP for the response. To be clear I also believe we are an underdog for the playoffs clearly, if nothing else than being one of many teams competing for 2 (or possibly only 1 spot). I do disagree a bit about the Heat. I think it is easy to look at them having a few sexier names (Dragic, Wade when he plays, Deng and possibly Whiteside), but not realize the serious problems they have inside right now after the loss of Bosh.

Three games ago they Let Nerlens Noel and Henry Sims combine for 30 points 10 rebounds and 5 blocks. Noel had 18 himself, his second highest scoring game of the season.

The next game Vucevic put up 26 on them ( he is a good player but still ate them alive), followed by 24 points from Alex Ajinca in 22 minutes.

Yesterday the Hawks rested Teague, Horford, Antic and Carrol against a full strength heat squad and still won in Miami.

In the past two weeks the Heat have signed both Michael Beasely and former Celtics draft pick Bill Walker. Yesterday Walker started and Beasely played 25 minutes. If that doesn't show the status of their team and depth behind their big names I don't know what does.


Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2015, 06:29:21 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Is there a chance Javale McGee signs on with one of these teams and completely swings the playoff race?  :o

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2015, 06:35:23 PM »

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Is there a chance Javale McGee signs on with one of these teams and completely swings the playoff race?  :o

He might not even clear waivers, who knows?

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2015, 06:58:19 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Is there a chance Javale McGee signs on with one of these teams and completely swings the playoff race?  :o

He might not even clear waivers, who knows?

I was more making a joke of there being a 4 page thread on a guy that hasn't been a significant NBA player in over two years and it is like someone told a racist joke (deafening silence) when you try to discuss the other playoff contending teams and their performance.

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #9 on: March 02, 2015, 09:01:31 PM »

Offline mgent

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Is there a chance Javale McGee signs on with one of these teams and completely swings the playoff race?  :o

He might not even clear waivers, who knows?

I was more making a joke of there being a 4 page thread on a guy that hasn't been a significant NBA player in over two years and it is like someone told a racist joke (deafening silence) when you try to discuss the other playoff contending teams and their performance.

The analysis is appreciated, but I'm not sure if even necessary.  I tend to consider point differential the most important measurement to watch in terms of power rankings/playoff success.  And according to that, we're top 8 in the East.

Which is where we've been most of the season, so it makes sense we've closed it down to only 1 game behind the 8 seed.
Philly:

Anderson Varejao    Tiago Splitter    Matt Bonner
David West    Kenyon Martin    Brad Miller
Andre Iguodala    Josh Childress    Marquis Daniels
Dwyane Wade    Leandro Barbosa
Kirk Hinrich    Toney Douglas   + the legendary Kevin McHale

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2015, 09:55:40 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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Brooklyn squeaks past Golden State.  Big win for them. 

And Miami still up on Phoenix late.

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #11 on: March 02, 2015, 10:00:53 PM »

Offline rocknrollforyoursoul

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Brooklyn squeaks past Golden State.  Big win for them. 

And Miami still up on Phoenix late.

Thanks for nothing, Golden State.
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Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #12 on: March 02, 2015, 10:21:26 PM »

Offline JBcat

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The Bucks have lost 4 out of the last 5 with the last 2 losses against the Lakers and Jazz.  I think they should have held onto Brandon Knight.  I wonder if they will continue to slide but they have a comfortable 6 1/2 game lead on the 7th seed.

Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #13 on: March 03, 2015, 10:59:29 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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I really think all 5 of those other teams should finish better than the C's by the time the season is over.  They all have better talent and should be ashamed if they finish lower than a Celtics team whose frontcourt has been hurt with injuries, traded their best 2 players and had a revolving-door roster this year. 


Re: Playoff Stock Watch
« Reply #14 on: March 03, 2015, 03:58:17 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I really think all 5 of those other teams should finish better than the C's by the time the season is over.  They all have better talent and should be ashamed if they finish lower than a Celtics team whose frontcourt has been hurt with injuries, traded their best 2 players and had a revolving-door roster this year.

It is not so clearcut that all of the teams have more talent than the celtics do right now. I would say that the Pistons probably have the most pure "talent" in Drummond, Monroe and Jackson. However, they really lack depth and it is unclear how much getting a guy for the last two months of his contract year with a proclivity for gunning (Jackson) helps two post players develop. They also traded away a guy that was playing great for them in Augustin to get that piece.

How much talent do the Hornets have? They have a bigger star on their roster their Boston in Jefferson but he is his still a one way player that is constantly banged up. Their younger players Zeller, Bismack, Vonleh, MKG and Hairston all range from prospect to rotation player right now with MKG probably topping out as a solid starter (not good start for a bunch of lottery picks). Is that any better than Smart, KO, Bradley, Thomas and Zeller? I think it is a pretty comparable group of mid prospects.

How much talent to the Pacers have sans George? Hibbert seems like a solid defensive piece that i would love, but disappears for large stretches. George Hill seems like an average NBA starting point guard at best and West is solid but 36 years old. The rest of their rosters is d leaguesrs, late first round or early second round picks and journeyman like Stuckey and Scola.

I've already outlined the extreme frontcourt and depth problems the heat have, but i will just repeat that they signed Beasely off the street and are starting Bill Walker.

I have given up figuring out how talented the Nets are. I kind of thought they were the worst team of the group three weeks ago, but they definitely seem to have the most NBA level talent when Lopez, Williams and Johnson play at even 60% of what they were.

The bottom line, there are reasons all these teams are 10 games under .500 two thirds into the season and none of would be that bad if they had significantly more talent.