Playoff Stock Watch

[celticsclay]

Yesterday was a perfect day for the Celtics in their playoff bid. Charlotte looked absolutely horrendous in a game that was not really competitive 5 minutes after the opening tip.

We beat a fellow contender in the Heat in a road game that Wade played very well. As a side note the Heat are now only 1 game away from being in position to keep their top 10 protected pick. If they lose their next two against Brooklyn and in Toronto, I would be surprised if they didn't shut down some of their injured veterans because they desperately need that first round pick after dealing away future one's for Dragic.

Tonight's slate sees Indiana continue their run of soft opponents with a home game against Orlando. The only other game of note is Brooklyn against  Pelicans where it would be really nice to see the nets continue their struggles.

[mef730]

I've changed my tank/don't tank opinion so many times that I can't keep track, but it's been one of those kinds of seasons.  20 games left, and I have to come down on one side or the other: Don't tank.  If we had a chance of a 1-3 pick, it would be one thing, but we're looking at a 10-11 pick.  Meh, I might as well enjoy the last 20 games and root for the wins.

Having said that, I don't think it's going to happen this year.  I think it'll be close but no shamrock.  A lot of it is simply math: With each passing game, it becomes incrementally more difficult to catch up, and the size of those increments accelerate as we get toward the end of the season.  We need two, possibly three games to catch Indy/Charlotte.  That's actually a lot, with only 20 left to play.  Assuming we do catch one of them, the first tie breaker is head to head, where we are 1-2 against Charlotte YTD and 1-1 against Indy.  Our last game against Charlotte is there and we have home and away against Indy.  I'm not actually as worried about a better Indy team with Paul George possibly returning.  It will take him the rest of the season just to shake off the cobwebs.  Obviously, we have to pass Miami, also. 

There's one other big wild card, and that is how the standings look.  Atlanta will obviously have a chance to rest some players, but if Cleveland/Toronto (and maybe Chicago) are still battling it out, they won't.  Our last four games include two against Cleveland and one against Toronto.

Reality, however, will not stop me from rooting for wins.

Mike

[celticsclay]

I've changed my tank/don't tank opinion so many times that I can't keep track, but it's been one of those kinds of seasons.  20 games left, and I have to come down on one side or the other: Don't tank.  If we had a chance of a 1-3 pick, it would be one thing, but we're looking at a 10-11 pick.  Meh, I might as well enjoy the last 20 games and root for the wins.

Having said that, I don't think it's going to happen this year.  I think it'll be close but no shamrock.  A lot of it is simply math: With each passing game, it becomes incrementally more difficult to catch up, and the size of those increments accelerate as we get toward the end of the season.  We need two, possibly three games to catch Indy/Charlotte.  That's actually a lot, with only 20 left to play.  Assuming we do catch one of them, the first tie breaker is head to head, where we are 1-2 against Charlotte YTD and 1-1 against Indy.  Our last game against Charlotte is there and we have home and away against Indy.  I'm not actually as worried about a better Indy team with Paul George possibly returning.  It will take him the rest of the season just to shake off the cobwebs.  Obviously, we have to pass Miami, also. 

There's one other big wild card, and that is how the standings look.  Atlanta will obviously have a chance to rest some players, but if Cleveland/Toronto (and maybe Chicago) are still battling it out, they won't.  Our last four games include two against Cleveland and one against Toronto.

Reality, however, will not stop me from rooting for wins.

Mike

Really nice post Mike. TP. I am personally really focused on Charlotte and what they will do. Other's haven't really agreed with me, but the Heat are a game away from being in a position to keep a top ten pick. With Bosh out, Deng, Dragic and Wade all banged up, it really doesn't make sense to run those guys into the ground for a first round playoff series. It is not like it will excited the fan base after 4 straight finals and puts unneeded mileage on Wade.

2 games in 20 is a lot but Charlotte has a west coast swing coming up. I see that as an opportunity for us to pick up some games on them. I really hope we are still focused on this stuff for that final week.

[celticsclay]

Solid night for the Celtics hopes. Orlando couldn't pull a massive shocker and beat Indiana in Indy, but after a slow start the pelicans are up 17 on the nets at the end of the third after trailing by 14 early.

[celticsclay]

In tonight's action the Celtics have a very challenging game against Memphis. In my opinion Memphis represents one of the worst matchups in the NBA for the Celtics because they have two really strong post players in Randolph and Gasol.

This is one of the few teams I don't think the Celtics can compete with, but I hope I am wrong.

In other games the Nets and Heat game should be kind of interesting. The Heat will not have Whiteside due to suspension. Haslem, Anderson and Wade are all game time decisions. If Anderson does not play they probably will get destroyed.

The Kings could do the Celtics a solid and beat the Hornets, but I would not hold my breathe with them coming off a 30 point thrashing at the hands of the Hawk. It would be a great night if the Celtics somehow don't lose ground.

I am also no longer including Detroit after their embarrassing loss last night against the Lakers. It is a 5 team race. I predict Nets or Heat will be next team to drop off.

[Quetzalcoatl]

Charlotte and Indy News Today:

1.) Kemba Walker is going to be back in the line up tonight:

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12460816/kemba-walker-back-charlotte-hornets

Cliff Notes of an already short article: Williams will still start, Kemba will get 20 min max and they will eventually close out games together when Kemba is fully healthy since they're two of the three best scorers on the team.

2.) Paul George "still a ways away" from playing

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/03/11/paul-george-still-a-ways-away-not-playing-march-14/

They've still won 12 of their last 14, but they're not truly dangerous until they get George back

I still don't think we're catching either of them, but theres still plenty of bball left

[celticsclay]

Charlotte and Indy News Today:

1.) Kemba Walker is going to be back in the line up tonight:

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12460816/kemba-walker-back-charlotte-hornets

Cliff Notes of an already short article: Williams will still start, Kemba will get 20 min max and they will eventually close out games together when Kemba is fully healthy since they're two of the three best scorers on the team.

2.) Paul George "still a ways away" from playing

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/03/11/paul-george-still-a-ways-away-not-playing-march-14/

They've still won 12 of their last 14, but they're not truly dangerous until they get George back

I still don't think we're catching either of them, but theres still plenty of bball left

Last night was a huge night for us that went about as perfectly as it could. While some remain bullish on Charlotte they are starting to slip. Coming of a blowout at hands of a struggling Wizards team they lost again last night at home to sacremento as heavy favorites. Coupled with our upset win against Memphis we actually gained ground on Charlotte. I would have been very happy just not losing ground based on the schedule.

The Heat beat the Nets in a somebody has to win game. The Nets could very well be the next team to be eliminated from the playoff race as they are riding a 5 game losing streak. It is of note the Nets get a chance to pick up some easy wins against Philly and Minnesota in their next two.


 You have to like our chances a lot better if it becomes a 4 team race instead of the 6 it was when this thread started.

[celticsclay]

ughh just wrote a longer update of this and it times out. With a win tonight and other favorable outcomes the Celtics could be in 7th. Milwaukee could also be added to this conversation later in the week as they have an absolutely brutal upcoming schedule

[celticsclay]

I haven't had as much time to recap this as I would like lately, but good things continue to happen.

Last night's loss by Charlotte dropped them all the way down to 10th place (albeit only 1 loss back of the 7 seed. The Celtics are now in a three way tie for 7th, with the Bucks threatening to add another team and "race" for the 6th seed.

Tonight the Celtics get to play a thunder team without Ibaka and most likely without Durant. We are still underdogs because Westbrook has morphed into some sort of lion robot human hybrid that dunks at will. Will be interesting to see if Smart can bother him even just a little bit (really nobody has been able to do that).

Our primary competitors all have games they could lose tonight

The Pacers play on the road in Chicago against a Bulls team that hasn't been the same since they lost Butler. The bulls with Noah, Gasol and Mirotic do matchup well with the Pacers in the frontcourt.

The Heat play at home against the Trailblazers in a game that really could go either way. The Heat will remain an interesting team to watch over the next few weeks. Their Vets (Wade, Deng and probably to a lesser extent Dragic) really want to win. However, they have no depth at all and it seems clear the front office would prefer for them to keep their top 10 pick. A slight slide by them could definitely lead to them shutting things down.

The Bucks, appearing seriously in this thread for the first time on official watch, have an opportunity to continue their free fall with a game against what should be a p---ed off spurs teams.

The Nets play at Cleveland in a game that Cleveland should be at full strength (Love is playing). Already two games down in the loss column (and with 3 less wins) the Nets seems on the verge of falling out of the race a la Detroit.

The Hornets, after falling short last night, are off until Friday for a game in Sacramento as they finish their west coast swing.

[fairweatherfan]

Thanks CC, appreciate you updating this, TP. 

I know free time is a factor, but maybe a mini-standings update every so often to put things into context?

[j804]

Yup nice update Clay, TP. Things should be interesting today.

[viking]

At the time of this post, we are currently in 8th after the win over the Nets

Above

Miami-  1 1/2 games ahead
Milwaukee - 3 games ahead

Below

Charlotte- 1/2 game behind
Indiana- 1 game behind
Brooklyn- 1 1/2 games behind

Upcoming games

Miami V Milwaukee- On Tuesday. Go Bucks! Keep the Heat close to us, with a chance for us to catch up.
Brooklyn V Charlotte- Wednesday. Huge for both these teams.
a Nets win would keep both teams below us for now
Miami V Boston- Wednesday. Second night of a back to back for Miami. Another huge game for all the teams mentioned in this group of games.
Indiana V Washington- Hopefully the truth does us a favor!

By the way Clay, hope you don't mind a little bit of help!

[celticsclay]

At the time of this post, we are currently in 8th after the win over the Nets

Above

Miami-  1 1/2 games ahead
Milwaukee - 3 games ahead

Below

Charlotte- 1/2 game behind
Indiana- 1 game behind
Brooklyn- 1 1/2 games behind

Upcoming games

Miami V Milwaukee- On Tuesday. Go Bucks! Keep the Heat close to us, with a chance for us to catch up.
Brooklyn V Charlotte- Wednesday. Huge for both these teams.
a Nets win would keep both teams below us for now
Miami V Boston- Wednesday. Second night of a back to back for Miami. Another huge game for all the teams mentioned in this group of games.
Indiana V Washington- Hopefully the truth does us a favor!

By the way Clay, hope you don't mind a little bit of help!

Viking thanks so much for the update. I have been slammed with work and life stuff lately and haven't had time to go through with the longer schedule update and standings post yet. Really good to see someone else pumped for this topic. TP for you.

Another thing I would point out is how bad charlotte is playing since Kemba returned. There was a debate earlier in this thread about whether his return would actually improve them or hurt them. Extremely small sample size, but early results are not super encouraging. They are 2-5 in 7 games including two really bad losses to Sacramento (twice, once without cousins). He is back to putting up numbers, but I wonder if it as the risk of better shots for his teammates.

Milwaukee continues to be a really interesting team as they have plummeted into this "race." They play two games against the playoff contenders (Indiana and Miami) before games against Golden State, Atlanta and Chicago. I really wonder how many games they will win the rest of the year and our games against them in April appear way more winnable than they did a few weeks ago. Lets go Celtics! I want the playoffs!

[celticsclay]

I don't even know who to root for in Heat versus Bucks. The Heat seem to be making a really ill fated push to try and get the 8th seed considering it is costing them a top 10 draft pick. With Bosh and Mcroberts out for the season and Wade battling injuries it would make a lot of sense to regroup in the offseason, resign Dragic, trade the 9th or 10th pick for a veteran big and try to make one last run with Bosh, Wade, Deng, Whiteside, Dragic, McRoberts and a few other vets. Unfortunately for the Heat, I think Riley's ego is driving them to a short sighted decision here.

On the other hand, if the Bucks free fall and add a lottery pick to their core of Greek, MCW, Parker and Middleton they could be really exciting next year.

[saltlover]

I don't even know who to root for in Heat versus Bucks. The Heat seem to be making a really ill fated push to try and get the 8th seed considering it is costing them a top 10 draft pick. With Bosh and Mcroberts out for the season and Wade battling injuries it would make a lot of sense to regroup in the offseason, resign Dragic, trade the 9th or 10th pick for a veteran big and try to make one last run with Bosh, Wade, Deng, Whiteside, Dragic, McRoberts and a few other vets. Unfortunately for the Heat, I think Riley's ego is driving them to a short sighted decision here.

On the other hand, if the Bucks free fall and add a lottery pick to their core of Greek, MCW, Parker and Middleton they could be really exciting next year.

I'm rooting for the Heat.  I don't see us getting the 6th seed, and I think we match up better with the Hawks than the Cavs.  So anything that moves us closer to 7th is sub-optimal in my book.