Would you trade this years picks+Brooklyn picks for a top 3 pick ?

[mef730]

I'm going with the OP's original question which sounds like all 3 picks.  The short answer to that one is no.  I don't see how we aren't going to end up with a couple of lottery picks.  They have not cap room this year, so their best player next year will be Thaddeus Young.  In the meantime, a lot of the teams with injuries or who just played below potential (eg Indy, Minnesota, Charlotte) will overtake them.  We are one injury away from a top 10 Nets pick in 2016. 

There are a ton of FAs in 2016, but also a ton of teams in hot cities that have both cap room and a future.  I guess the Nets could, theoretically, sign two top guys with the hope of winning it all in 16, but if you're a true star, why not go to Miami, NY or LA (either LA) if you want the cool city?   All of those teams have some or all of their draft picks in the future.  The Nets only have Atlanta's this year and ours in 2017 (assuming we switch).  Also, as good as the crop in 16 is, the best players are already likely spoken for.  Durant likely goes to DC, LeBron stays in Cleveland, Love goes west.

Last thought: i would have to get the data to prove it, but my feeling is that draft picks are overvalued the most as we get closer to the draft.  The media hypes up the draftees, scouts have a chance to salivate, coaches and fans begin to think "what if," etc.  is Thon Maker the next Garnett?  Maybe.  Or maybe he's just the guy who is like the last guy who is the next Garnett. 

One of the things I love about Ainge is his seeming ability to evaluate his team without emotions.  Put a hoodie on him and call him Belichick.  I think he could get a lot more than one player by waiting.  Patience has proven to be a virtue. 

Having said that, if the OP meant one Brooklyn draft pick and this year for a top 3, I'd do it.   

Mike

[oldtype]

Four first round picks (most likely including 1~2 lottery) is the kind of package that could get you a bona fide star when one becomes available.

Unless we're talking about a 90% sure-thing prospect who is more or less guaranteed to play in an all-star game within two years, it's a ridiculous overpay no matter how our own pick is positioned.

I don't think consolidating that many high-level picks into one is a good strategy in general either. What you're doing is comparable to taking a highly diversified low-risk stock portfolio and selling it off to bet heavily on one blue-chip stock. You're taking on a massive amount of risk just for the sake of a slightly increased ROI. That sort of move could torpedo or rebuild entirely if things go wrong.

[saltlover]

Yes, assuming we are picking #12-15 this year, which is most likely outcome.
But, more to the point, I doubt any team in the Top 3 this year would make such a trade.

EDIT -- Waew, I see we are thinking along the same lines

If I were Philly, and you offered me #10 overall, and three future unprotected firsts from a team that either was in the late lottery itself or barely made the playoffs, not to mention is aging and in cap hell for a year or two, I'd say yes and patch in the league office for the trade call before you could hange your mind.

Yes, but more likely: #15 pick (not #10) plus two unprotected firsts (not three) for a Top 3 pick this year. A bird in hand....

1) Definitely more likely 10 than 15.  There are too many teams competing with the C's for those last playoff spots to say it's probable they make it.  Possible yes, but not most likely.

2) The OP's poll said give up pick 7-10 this year.

3) We essentially have the Nets pick for 2016-2018.  While technically 2017 is a swap, we still control that Nets pick.  If soneome says "trade all the picks we have from the Nets" you have to include all three.

[slamtheking]

depends what the picks this year are.

Yeah where our pick is matters a lot. If we're 15th, its a lot different than 10th for example.

I'm not sold on any of the top 3 to send 3 quailty first round picks to move up.

this. 

the top 4 players this year could be all-star level but I'm extremely reluctant to give up 3 chances of getting that type of player for 1 chance.   

I was thinking of putting together a thread to pose the opposite question: if the C's landed a top 3 pick and a team that figures to land in the 5-8 range came to Danny asking what it would take to trade -- if you were Danny would you entertain that offer and if so, what would it take to make that deal?  The 4 teams I'd offer for consideration would have a pick in that range and young players to add in a deal: Orlando, Utah, Philly and Minny.

[Csfan1984]

I think there's decent parity near the top of the draft this year. Okafor has been the consensus #1 I suppose, but we're talking an Al Jefferson here not a Tim Duncan. Then there are a whole lot of prospects any of which could end up the best in the class, in no particular order:

Towns
Mudiay
Russell
Porzingis
Hezonja
Johnson

How big is the drop-off, really, from #1 to #7? I'd support moving up a few spots but I don't see anyone in this draft who's really worth selling the farm.

+1, some would add in Oubre, Turner and WCS as "very good pro potential" and the value of any top 10 pick is good. Prospects aren't all elite but its deep 1-10.

[Moranis]

I think there's decent parity near the top of the draft this year. Okafor has been the consensus #1 I suppose, but we're talking an Al Jefferson here not a Tim Duncan. Then there are a whole lot of prospects any of which could end up the best in the class, in no particular order:

Towns
Mudiay
Russell
Porzingis
Hezonja
Johnson

How big is the drop-off, really, from #1 to #7? I'd support moving up a few spots but I don't see anyone in this draft who's really worth selling the farm.

+1, some would add in Oubre, Turner and WCS as "very good pro potential" and the value of any top 10 pick is good. Prospects aren't all elite but its deep 1-10.

I think Okafor is a lot closer to a Tim Duncan than an Al Jefferson prospect.  Okafor is the real deal.  If you can get Okafor for those 4 picks, I think you make that trade.  I think he will be that good.  Anyone else, probably not worth it.

[mef730]

depends what the picks this year are.

Yeah where our pick is matters a lot. If we're 15th, its a lot different than 10th for example.

I'm not sold on any of the top 3 to send 3 quailty first round picks to move up.

this. 

the top 4 players this year could be all-star level but I'm extremely reluctant to give up 3 chances of getting that type of player for 1 chance.   

I was thinking of putting together a thread to pose the opposite question: if the C's landed a top 3 pick and a team that figures to land in the 5-8 range came to Danny asking what it would take to trade -- if you were Danny would you entertain that offer and if so, what would it take to make that deal?  The 4 teams I'd offer for consideration would have a pick in that range and young players to add in a deal: Orlando, Utah, Philly and Minny.

That would be a great thread.  I would absolutely entertain that offer from three of the above teams (ex-Minny), with this year's and next year's pick being the price.  I don't know those teams well enough to know what players to ask for.

Mike

[Old Wine]

I would watch  the Timberwolfs position in the draft. If they draft Okafor I would make an offer for G. Dieng, a very good offer. This years first, Nets first next year and with a broken hart, Young.

[Roy H.]

Four #1s -- three of which could be in the lottery -- for a guy who is unlikely to be a superstar?

I'd take my chances on the picks.

[jpotter33]

You only trade that kind of package for established talent not potential talent.  Would you trade those picks for DMC? Yes. Would you trade those picks for a player who might someday have a chance to be as good as DMC? Probably Not.

[Roy H.]

Yes, assuming we are picking #12-15 this year, which is most likely outcome.
But, more to the point, I doubt any team in the Top 3 this year would make such a trade.

EDIT -- Waew, I see we are thinking along the same lines

If I were Philly, and you offered me #10 overall, and three future unprotected firsts from a team that either was in the late lottery itself or barely made the playoffs, not to mention is aging and in cap hell for a year or two, I'd say yes and patch in the league office for the trade call before you could hange your mind.

Yes, but more likely: #15 pick (not #10) plus two unprotected firsts (not three) for a Top 3 pick this year. A bird in hand....

The bird in hand may not be a bird at all...  It could be a bust.

Also, isn't the hypothetical 2 picks this year (ours + the Clippers) + two future Brooklyn picks?  So, currently, something like the #9 pick, the #23 pick, a 2016 Brooklyn pick (unprotected) and 2018 Brooklyn pick (unprotected) for a top-3 pick in this year's draft.

No thank you.

[JBcat]

I'm keeping the nets picks, and the right to swap the 2017 pick off the table for now.  That could be 3 lottery picks in a row.  Even the Memphis pick in 2019 I want to hold on to.  All other picks imo are fair game to trade, and we have plenty of those.

[Moranis]

Yes, assuming we are picking #12-15 this year, which is most likely outcome.
But, more to the point, I doubt any team in the Top 3 this year would make such a trade.

EDIT -- Waew, I see we are thinking along the same lines

If I were Philly, and you offered me #10 overall, and three future unprotected firsts from a team that either was in the late lottery itself or barely made the playoffs, not to mention is aging and in cap hell for a year or two, I'd say yes and patch in the league office for the trade call before you could hange your mind.

Yes, but more likely: #15 pick (not #10) plus two unprotected firsts (not three) for a Top 3 pick this year. A bird in hand....

The bird in hand may not be a bird at all...  It could be a bust.

Also, isn't the hypothetical 2 picks this year (ours + the Clippers) + two future Brooklyn picks?  So, currently, something like the #9 pick, the #23 pick, a 2016 Brooklyn pick (unprotected) and 2018 Brooklyn pick (unprotected) for a top-3 pick in this year's draft.

No thank you.

I tend to think Okafor is going to be a monster.  I mean if you look at the would you trade the #1 pick for Cousins, there are a lot of people that would not.  So if you could get Okafor for the 4 picks, I think you have to do it.  I really do think he is going to be that good. 

[e4sym0de]

I don't think consolidating that many high-level picks into one is a good strategy in general either. What you're doing is comparable to taking a highly diversified low-risk stock portfolio and selling it off to bet heavily on one blue-chip stock. You're taking on a massive amount of risk just for the sake of a slightly increased ROI. That sort of move could torpedo or rebuild entirely if things go wrong.

Perfect explanation imho

[Roy H.]

Yes, assuming we are picking #12-15 this year, which is most likely outcome.
But, more to the point, I doubt any team in the Top 3 this year would make such a trade.

EDIT -- Waew, I see we are thinking along the same lines

If I were Philly, and you offered me #10 overall, and three future unprotected firsts from a team that either was in the late lottery itself or barely made the playoffs, not to mention is aging and in cap hell for a year or two, I'd say yes and patch in the league office for the trade call before you could hange your mind.

Yes, but more likely: #15 pick (not #10) plus two unprotected firsts (not three) for a Top 3 pick this year. A bird in hand....

The bird in hand may not be a bird at all...  It could be a bust.

Also, isn't the hypothetical 2 picks this year (ours + the Clippers) + two future Brooklyn picks?  So, currently, something like the #9 pick, the #23 pick, a 2016 Brooklyn pick (unprotected) and 2018 Brooklyn pick (unprotected) for a top-3 pick in this year's draft.

No thank you.

I tend to think Okafor is going to be a monster.  I mean if you look at the would you trade the #1 pick for Cousins, there are a lot of people that would not.  So if you could get Okafor for the 4 picks, I think you have to do it.  I really do think he is going to be that good.

I don't know enough about Okafor to have a good feeling about how good he will turn out.  I think the people who wouldn't trade the #1 pick for Cousins are...  people I strongly disagree with. 

It just seems like almost every year there's a top-3 pick that misses.  The odds of any individual Celtics pick being a bust are greater than missing on that top-3 pick, but I'd rather have four bites at the apple.

But, if I was convinced that Okafor (or whoever else) was going to be special, I might be more willing to gamble.  The only guys in the past decade who I thought were going to be truly special were Greg Oden and Anthony Davis, though, and even that turned out less than spectacularly.