Author Topic: How good is Isaiah Thomas' Contract?  (Read 6789 times)

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Re: How good is Isaiah Thomas' Contract?
« Reply #15 on: March 01, 2015, 02:16:06 AM »

Offline BornReady

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Just to expand on the OP:



And these stats were both on bad teams, too.

This also doesn't count for defence which Irving seems like a sieve while Thomas hustles a lot more
Bball breakdown did a comparison of them in favour of Thomas

Irving has more potential but Thomas looks like the better valued player

Re: How good is Isaiah Thomas' Contract?
« Reply #16 on: March 01, 2015, 05:18:09 AM »

Offline Salesgod

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Thomas is a scorer. A Bobby Jackson. A Damon Stoudamire. He's not someone to go cookoo over, but he's a good player. He draws a crowd.

He's a guy that belongs on a good team. He makes the C's better and he's the first somewhat of a capping piece to this team.

Emotionally I love him, but on the 08 team, he'd be nothing more than a very capable backup. An Eddie House with game. Darn, I miss Eddie House. Come to think of it, I miss Leon Powe as well. And that P.J. Brown thing, that was great.

Also, in closing, I like Isiah Thomas.

P.S. - Sam Cassell was the man.

Good contract.
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Re: How good is Isaiah Thomas' Contract?
« Reply #17 on: March 01, 2015, 07:55:45 AM »

Offline mctyson

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In my view, the whole point of the analytics revolution in nearly all of sports is the value of player contracts.

IT is just another example of how advanced stats find the valuable contracts and bad ones too (ie Kendrick Perkins).
mc, this is a very interesting point, and one in which i am not well versed. would you be able to expand on your points above and show precisely how advanced stats (and which advanced stats) are related to contracts, bad ones include.

thanks in advance.

I can't say how each team uses them, and which ones they use, but we know the Celtics use advanced statistics for player evaluation.  So it doesn't surprise me that they are obsessed with guys like Thomas, because of his value.

Re: How good is Isaiah Thomas' Contract?
« Reply #18 on: March 01, 2015, 08:08:49 AM »

Offline clover

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Thomas is a scorer. A Bobby Jackson. A Damon Stoudamire. He's not someone to go cookoo over, but he's a good player. He draws a crowd.

He's a guy that belongs on a good team. He makes the C's better and he's the first somewhat of a capping piece to this team.

Emotionally I love him, but on the 08 team, he'd be nothing more than a very capable backup. An Eddie House with game. Darn, I miss Eddie House. Come to think of it, I miss Leon Powe as well. And that P.J. Brown thing, that was great.

Also, in closing, I like Isiah Thomas.

P.S. - Sam Cassell was the man.

Good contract.

Rondo was a 21yo, second-year PG on the '08 team. He was coming off a PER of 13.1 and a TS% of .472. Do you really think Doc would have gone with him over Thomas if he had the choice?

Re: How good is Isaiah Thomas' Contract?
« Reply #19 on: March 01, 2015, 11:06:13 AM »

Offline Rosco917

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Really good, and here's my proof.

Player A averages 36 MPG, 19PPG, 5 APG, 4 RPG, and 1.5 SPG on 40%/32%/82% splits. He  signed a contract for 4 years/48 million dollar contract.

Thomas averages 26 MPG, 16PPG, 4 APG, 2 RPG, and 1 SPG on 42%/39%/89% splits. He just signed a 4 years/27 million dollar contract.

Player A is Kemba Walker. Dig further, and you find that in their contract years (2013-2014), the numbers are even closer. Walker was at 18, 6, 4, and 1.2 on 38%/33%/84% in 36 MPG. Thomas was 20, 6, 3, 1.2 on 45%/35%/85% in 34 MPG. For some reason, Thomas couldn't get anywhere close to the 12 million a year that Walker got, and had to settle for a contract that averaged about 6.7 million a year, almost half of Walker.

Advanced stats say the same things. In fact, they are both defensive liabilities according to the DRPM stat: Walker at -1.68 and Thomas at -1.9. However, Thomas has a better ORPM stat than Walker: Walker at 2.82 and Thomas at 3.25 (Thomas is the tenth best in the NBA at the ORPM stat).

The WAR stat indicates the estimated number of wins a particular player adds to his team: Walker is at 3.15 and Thomas is at 2.77.

If you argue, "But more of the offense falls on Walker's shoulders, and therefore his production won't look as good." Actually, the usage stats say that Thomas has a much higher responsibility for his team's offense. His usage rate is 35% to Walker's 25%.

Oh, and Thomas also wins the PER at 20.06 to Walker's 18.73.

I think you could make the argument that Thomas is a better player than Walker from these stats, although I'm not convinced of that myself. If Kemba Walker's contract sets the level for players of his production (and it approximately does), then we got a little more production than that for almost half the price.

That's a player that's worth a late first round pick.



thank you ^
very informative.

Re: How good is Isaiah Thomas' Contract?
« Reply #20 on: March 01, 2015, 11:46:36 AM »

Offline BballTim

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Thomas is a scorer. A Bobby Jackson. A Damon Stoudamire. He's not someone to go cookoo over, but he's a good player. He draws a crowd.

He's a guy that belongs on a good team. He makes the C's better and he's the first somewhat of a capping piece to this team.

Emotionally I love him, but on the 08 team, he'd be nothing more than a very capable backup. An Eddie House with game. Darn, I miss Eddie House. Come to think of it, I miss Leon Powe as well. And that P.J. Brown thing, that was great.

Also, in closing, I like Isiah Thomas.

P.S. - Sam Cassell was the man.

Good contract.

Rondo was a 21yo, second-year PG on the '08 team. He was coming off a PER of 13.1 and a TS% of .472. Do you really think Doc would have gone with him over Thomas if he had the choice?

   Thomas generally doesn't do much more than score. It's fairly likely Doc would have preferred Rondo's defense, rebounding and ability to run an offense.

Re: How good is Isaiah Thomas' Contract?
« Reply #21 on: March 01, 2015, 01:07:57 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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Thomas is a scorer. A Bobby Jackson. A Damon Stoudamire. He's not someone to go cookoo over, but he's a good player. He draws a crowd.

He's a guy that belongs on a good team. He makes the C's better and he's the first somewhat of a capping piece to this team.

Emotionally I love him, but on the 08 team, he'd be nothing more than a very capable backup. An Eddie House with game. Darn, I miss Eddie House. Come to think of it, I miss Leon Powe as well. And that P.J. Brown thing, that was great.

Also, in closing, I like Isiah Thomas.

P.S. - Sam Cassell was the man.

Good contract.

Rondo was a 21yo, second-year PG on the '08 team. He was coming off a PER of 13.1 and a TS% of .472. Do you really think Doc would have gone with him over Thomas if he had the choice?

   Thomas generally doesn't do much more than score. It's fairly likely Doc would have preferred Rondo's defense, rebounding and ability to run an offense.

In that situation Rondo would have probably started but only because Allen, Pierce, and KG are all 20 ppg scorers. That offense needed I guy like Rondo to distribute the ball and play D.

Thats not to say that Isaiah cant start on a contender. He just needs to start on a contender which does not already have 3 hall of fame scorers.
Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.

Re: How good is Isaiah Thomas' Contract?
« Reply #22 on: March 01, 2015, 01:09:55 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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Really good, and here's my proof.

Player A averages 36 MPG, 19PPG, 5 APG, 4 RPG, and 1.5 SPG on 40%/32%/82% splits. He  signed a contract for 4 years/48 million dollar contract.

Thomas averages 26 MPG, 16PPG, 4 APG, 2 RPG, and 1 SPG on 42%/39%/89% splits. He just signed a 4 years/27 million dollar contract.

Player A is Kemba Walker. Dig further, and you find that in their contract years (2013-2014), the numbers are even closer. Walker was at 18, 6, 4, and 1.2 on 38%/33%/84% in 36 MPG. Thomas was 20, 6, 3, 1.2 on 45%/35%/85% in 34 MPG. For some reason, Thomas couldn't get anywhere close to the 12 million a year that Walker got, and had to settle for a contract that averaged about 6.7 million a year, almost half of Walker.

Advanced stats say the same things. In fact, they are both defensive liabilities according to the DRPM stat: Walker at -1.68 and Thomas at -1.9. However, Thomas has a better ORPM stat than Walker: Walker at 2.82 and Thomas at 3.25 (Thomas is the tenth best in the NBA at the ORPM stat).

The WAR stat indicates the estimated number of wins a particular player adds to his team: Walker is at 3.15 and Thomas is at 2.77.

If you argue, "But more of the offense falls on Walker's shoulders, and therefore his production won't look as good." Actually, the usage stats say that Thomas has a much higher responsibility for his team's offense. His usage rate is 35% to Walker's 25%.

Oh, and Thomas also wins the PER at 20.06 to Walker's 18.73.

I think you could make the argument that Thomas is a better player than Walker from these stats, although I'm not convinced of that myself. If Kemba Walker's contract sets the level for players of his production (and it approximately does), then we got a little more production than that for almost half the price.

That's a player that's worth a late first round pick.

TP, I love that you brought this up because I am a huge Kemba fan and I think they have very similar games. Both guys are predicated on quickness and both guys have the clutch gene. 
Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.

Re: How good is Isaiah Thomas' Contract?
« Reply #23 on: March 01, 2015, 02:03:28 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Thomas is a scorer. A Bobby Jackson. A Damon Stoudamire. He's not someone to go cookoo over, but he's a good player. He draws a crowd.

He's a guy that belongs on a good team. He makes the C's better and he's the first somewhat of a capping piece to this team.

Emotionally I love him, but on the 08 team, he'd be nothing more than a very capable backup. An Eddie House with game. Darn, I miss Eddie House. Come to think of it, I miss Leon Powe as well. And that P.J. Brown thing, that was great.

Also, in closing, I like Isiah Thomas.

P.S. - Sam Cassell was the man.

Good contract.

Rondo was a 21yo, second-year PG on the '08 team. He was coming off a PER of 13.1 and a TS% of .472. Do you really think Doc would have gone with him over Thomas if he had the choice?

   Thomas generally doesn't do much more than score. It's fairly likely Doc would have preferred Rondo's defense, rebounding and ability to run an offense.

In that situation Rondo would have probably started but only because Allen, Pierce, and KG are all 20 ppg scorers. That offense needed I guy like Rondo to distribute the ball and play D.

Thats not to say that Isaiah cant start on a contender. He just needs to start on a contender which does not already have 3 hall of fame scorers.
Wouldn't have been shocked to see THomas get more minutes.  Something to be said about being able to spread the floor, creating opportunities by penetrating, and being able to hit free throws (so you know he wouldn't disappear down the stretch).   As far as "running the offense" and "racking up assists", pretty much any competent point guard could have done that in that system with Rondo's amount of touches. 

If we've learned anything since watching Rondo crack double digit assists once in his entire tenure with the Mavs... dude was supremely overrated.

Re: How good is Isaiah Thomas' Contract?
« Reply #24 on: March 01, 2015, 02:12:46 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Gross exaggerations bolstered by the glee of being right.

Rondo certainly hasn't been the kind of player he was since 2012, and he's still worth roughly his trade package, but he's hardly as bad as you make him out to be.

At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.