1 NOH Anthony Davis University of Kentucky
2 CHA Michael Kidd-Gilchrist University of Kentucky
3 WAS Bradley Beal University of Florida
4 CLE Dion Waiters Syracuse University
5 SAC Thomas Robinson University of Kansas
1 CLE Kyrie Irving Duke
2 MIN Derrick Williams Arizona
3 UTA Enes Kanter Turkey
4 CLE Tristan Thompson Texas
5 TOR Jonas Valanciunas Lithuania
1 WAS John Wall Kentucky
2 PHI Evan Turner Ohio State
3 NJN Derrick Favors Georgia Tech
4 MIN Wesley Johnson Syracuse
5 SAC DeMarcus Cousins Kentucky
2009
1 LAC Blake Griffin Oklahoma
2 MEM Hasheem Thabeet Connecticut
3 OKC James Harden Arizona State
4 SAC Tyreke Evans Memphis
5 MIN Ricky Rubio Spain
2008
1 CHI Derrick Rose Memphis
2 MIA Michael Beasley Kansas State
3 MIN O.J. Mayo Southern California
4 SEA Russell Westbrook UCLA
5 MEM Kevin Love UCLA[/b]
2007
1 POR Greg Oden Ohio State
2 SEA Kevin Durant Texas
3 ATL Al Horford Florida
4 MEM Mike Conley Ohio State
5 BOS Jeff Green Georgetown
2006
1. Andrea Bargnani, Italy Toronto
2.LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas Chicago
3.Adam Morrison, Gonzaga Charlotte
4.Tyrus Thomas, Louisiana State Portland
5.Shelden Williams, Duke Atlanta
By my count that is 10 stars and 10 busts over 35 top picks from 2012 to 2006. I may have missed a few as you could argue favors, Conley and Horford are all stars and also MKG and Waiters could be argued as busts, but of this group only the OKC trio have led their teams to championships. I didnt include the last two drafs because I think it is premature but for what its worth 2013 looks like 3 busts and 0 stars to me and 2014 could have up to 5 stars, but wiggins and Parker seem like the best bets. And exum and Embiid could be busts.
Tanking is probably the easiest route to a star but a top 5 pick does not guarantee you a star. Top 3 is pretty good odds, but then you are relying on ping pong balls and that can kill you.
Also with so many teams tanking its tough to out tank teams. We got PP at 10 Indiana got Paul George at 10 Ainge has drafted Big Al and Rondo late in the first. All is not lost if we pick at 15 instead of 5 this year. In my oppinion Id rather add some solid players (isiah) and see the team develop then suck on purpose and marginally increase the odds of getting a star. (over those 14 4th and 5th picks I count 2 stars at 4/5)
TP for the research
I looked at the top 4 in each conference:
Atlanta:
Horford pick 4, Teague pick 19, Millsapp (FA)
Toronto: Lowry Trade,
Derozan pick 9,
Valunciunas pick 5Chicago:
Rose 1, Gasol FA, Butler 30,
Noah 9Cleveland:James FA,
Irving 1, Love trade (took #1 pick)Golden State:
Curry 7, Thompson 11, Green 35
Memphis: Gasol Trade, Randolph Trade,
Conley 4Houston: Harden Trade, Howard FA
Portland:
Aldridge 2,
Lilliard 6Honestly Im not sure what to make of this. Nearly all of these teams (except the rockets) has had to find a star in the top 10, and based on your research a there is usually 1 star to be had in the top 5.
Im against tanking but Im aware that if in 06 we had pick # 15 instead of # 5 we dont get Ray, the we dont get KG then we dont get banner 17.
I could see Smart becoming that star but I certainly wouldnt bet on it. We need to knock our #1 out of the park this year and same with brooklyn '16 as I suspect that to be around pick #10 as well. If we do that we will be fine.