Author Topic: Brad Stevens has no intentions of starting Isaiah Thomas  (Read 29481 times)

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Re: Brad Stevens has no intentions of starting Isaiah Thomas
« Reply #90 on: March 03, 2015, 06:09:50 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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I suppose I'll have to repeat myself here:

Quote
I've followed Thomas' career since he came into the league. He's a fun player, and a bad defender. He is not an average defender. He is a below average defender. There is no metric you can find that will support your assertion that " Isaiah Thomas has already been matched up against the NBA's best starting point guards, night after night.... [And] He held his own defensively about as well as any other PG in the league."

What you're saying is demonstrably incorrect. I'm not sure how else to say that.
You haven't exactly demonstrated how it is not correct. A fuzzy, rudimentary statistic such as individual defensive win shares is absolutely worthless.

Looking at Thomas' advanced stats for the season when he started, I see nothing that indicates he was a defensive liability:

http://www.82games.com/1314/13SAC1.HTM

For reference, league-average PER is set at 15 for each season. Therefore, Thomas gave up about an average PER at his position in 13-14.
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Re: Brad Stevens has no intentions of starting Isaiah Thomas
« Reply #91 on: March 03, 2015, 06:12:20 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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http://bkref.com/tiny/kIsE8

You asked for 2014-2015, there's the list. As to your proposed metric:

Quote
you raise interesting points and make intriguing arguments. but would you please also provide some data that supports this?

Go through the box score of each of the 54 games he started in '14 and try to detect a pattern of opposing point guards going off on him versus having average games or even worse games than they usually have.


I think you should be told that correlation is not equal to causation. Or that the burden of proof lies with the person making the original claim.  Also, why the continued hostility? Did someone pee in your coffee this morning?
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Re: Brad Stevens has no intentions of starting Isaiah Thomas
« Reply #92 on: March 03, 2015, 06:13:05 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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So, you're using a single game against the league's most elite shooting backcourt to judge Thomas's viability as a starting PG, and he failed in your eyes because one of the best shooters in NBA history wound up shooting the ball well? Against whom does Curry not shoot the ball well? If being burned by Curry's shooting were something that disqualified a player from being a starting PG, the league would only have one starting PG, Curry himself.
I'm using the entire history of NBA basketball to say that undersized shooting guards like Bradley rarely have long-term starter potential.

Okay, that's Bradley, at SG. (And it's still just a pattern based on players who are not Avery Bradley. What in the entire history of Avery Bradley indicates that he individually is not a viable defender of starting shooting guards? He's played for years. What's his data, his pattern say?)

Quote
Micro-guards like Earl Boykins/Isaiah Thomas can typically only be used as change-of-pace bench players, because they become a liability defensively.

Players like...typically. But individually, in real versus speculative outcomes, Isaiah Thomas was no worse than average defensively as a starting PG. Sometimes he got burned; most of the time he was average; sometimes he even clamped down on premier starting PG. All the while he was above average offensively most of the time.

Quote
There's a reason why Thomas is playing on his 3rd team in a couple years and it's due to his size.

It's due to perception about his size, it's due to conventional wisdom about his size. The point of being a wise general manager is to locate and acquire undervalued players. The whole idea with Isaiah Thomas is that the whole league's conventional thinking might be wrong in his individual case. That idea cannot possibly be judged by using...more conventional wisdom.

Quote
The Golden State game was a wonderful example of why the world is the way it is.

Nor can it be judged by using one game against the best shooting PG in the world and using that PG's completely unsurprising great shooting as proof that IT can't cut it. That's not moving the goalposts. It's more like re-spotting the ball a mere 10 yards from the goalposts. In other words, it is the easiest test of your thesis possible, one that every single PG in the league no matter how bad or average or great has probably failed multiple times.

Quote
One solution... trading Bradley for a larger guard?  Or if someone like James Young (6'6 215) supplants Bradley and we trade Bradley in a package to upgrade one of our other major needs (SF, PF, C), that means no matter what the combo (Thomas + Young, Thomas + Smart, Smart + Young) you'll have almost enough size to deal with the opposing team's back court.   Our issue is the Thomas + Bradley lineup.  That's a size mis-match no matter who they are going against.

Possibly. Or could just start Smart. Bradley could then sub for either, and as a SG against second units his height would be less of an issue. But it's not certain that his height is an issue, yet. How does Bradley do defensively against starting SG, particularly taller ones? There is data. Game footage. Game logs. Advanced metrics. There is no need to rely on conventional wisdom to answer these questions. In fact, that's exactly what the smartest GMs in sports have been doing for a good while now, examining conventional wisdom for flaws in order to discover underrated gems. Isaiah Thomas may someday be a textbook example, might someday have a rule of thumb named after him at a Sloan Conference, etc.

Quote
Find me a team that has successfully started a 5'9 PG next to a 6'2 shooting guard.

It's always nice to have a precedent, but sometimes good and great things have no exact precedent. Or even a remotely similar precedent. And it could even be foolish to require such a precedent for a league where the style of play is in flux, where values may have shifted to the point that the unprecedented is more possible than ever.
you raise interesting points and make intriguing arguments. but would you please also provide some data that supports this?
I agree. Great verbosity but no actual hard evidence with stats makes Dino's take hard to believe.

Re: Brad Stevens has no intentions of starting Isaiah Thomas
« Reply #93 on: March 03, 2015, 06:16:24 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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I suppose I'll have to repeat myself here:

Quote
I've followed Thomas' career since he came into the league. He's a fun player, and a bad defender. He is not an average defender. He is a below average defender. There is no metric you can find that will support your assertion that " Isaiah Thomas has already been matched up against the NBA's best starting point guards, night after night.... [And] He held his own defensively about as well as any other PG in the league."

What you're saying is demonstrably incorrect. I'm not sure how else to say that.
You haven't exactly demonstrated how it is not correct. A fuzzy, rudimentary statistic such as individual defensive win shares is absolutely worthless.

Looking at Thomas' advanced stats for the season when he started, I see nothing that indicates he was a defensive liability:

http://www.82games.com/1314/13SAC1.HTM

For reference, league-average PER is set at 15 for each season. Therefore, Thomas gave up about an average PER at his position in 13-14.

My web connection is on the fritz right now, but I'd like to point out that the point of contention is that " Isaiah Thomas has already been matched up against the NBA's best starting point guards, night after night.... [And] He held his own defensively about as well as any other PG in the league."

I'm calling bull on that. And so far I've yet to hear anything except why I'm a bad person for doubting the assertion.
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Re: Brad Stevens has no intentions of starting Isaiah Thomas
« Reply #94 on: March 03, 2015, 06:17:18 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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http://bkref.com/tiny/kIsE8

You asked for 2014-2015, there's the list. As to your proposed metric:

Quote
you raise interesting points and make intriguing arguments. but would you please also provide some data that supports this?

Go through the box score of each of the 54 games he started in '14 and try to detect a pattern of opposing point guards going off on him versus having average games or even worse games than they usually have.


I think you should be told that correlation is not equal to causation. Or that the burden of proof lies with the person making the original claim.  Also, why the continued hostility? Did someone pee in your coffee this morning?
I also highly question the statement about opposing PGs. 82games data indicates average to slightly below average opposing PG PER against him that season. And given that PER is precisely a measure of average statistical production, the "going off pattern" statement is obviously bogus.
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Re: Brad Stevens has no intentions of starting Isaiah Thomas
« Reply #95 on: March 03, 2015, 06:19:28 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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I suppose I'll have to repeat myself here:

Quote
I've followed Thomas' career since he came into the league. He's a fun player, and a bad defender. He is not an average defender. He is a below average defender. There is no metric you can find that will support your assertion that " Isaiah Thomas has already been matched up against the NBA's best starting point guards, night after night.... [And] He held his own defensively about as well as any other PG in the league."

What you're saying is demonstrably incorrect. I'm not sure how else to say that.
You haven't exactly demonstrated how it is not correct. A fuzzy, rudimentary statistic such as individual defensive win shares is absolutely worthless.

Looking at Thomas' advanced stats for the season when he started, I see nothing that indicates he was a defensive liability:

http://www.82games.com/1314/13SAC1.HTM

For reference, league-average PER is set at 15 for each season. Therefore, Thomas gave up about an average PER at his position in 13-14.

My web connection is on the fritz right now, but I'd like to point out that the point of contention is that " Isaiah Thomas has already been matched up against the NBA's best starting point guards, night after night.... [And] He held his own defensively about as well as any other PG in the league."

I'm calling bull on that. And so far I've yet to hear anything except why I'm a bad person for doubting the assertion.
You may call it whatever you want; it doesn't mean it's true. The fact that opposing PGs had a PER of 14.5 against IT in 13-14 indicates that their overall stat production that year was slightly below league average. Make of that what you will.
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Re: Brad Stevens has no intentions of starting Isaiah Thomas
« Reply #96 on: March 03, 2015, 06:22:55 PM »

Offline mctyson

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I just don't quite get the obsession with Thomas' height and individual defensive ratings.  NBA defense is a team concept.  Yes, if you have a really incompetent and weak link, the team defense will breakdown.  But I don't think IT has been or will be that kind of defender.

He was brought here to be (1) our main offensive producer off the bench and (2) our best crunch-time scorer.  We get some good assists and guard play along with that.  What he subtracts individually in defense he more than makes up for on offense. 

In other words....a major upgrade over Rondo.


Re: Brad Stevens has no intentions of starting Isaiah Thomas
« Reply #97 on: March 03, 2015, 06:23:29 PM »

Offline inverselock

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PnR ball handler defence.   Min 100 possessions

http://stats.nba.com/playtype/#!/ball-handler/?OD=defensive&CF=Poss*G*100&dir=-1&sort=PPP

Isolation defence.  Min 30 possessions

http://stats.nba.com/playtype/#!/isolation/?CF=Poss*G*30&dir=-1&sort=PPP&OD=defensive

Don't have the time to get in to this.  A quick look at some defensive stats,  IT's not that bad.

Re: Brad Stevens has no intentions of starting Isaiah Thomas
« Reply #98 on: March 03, 2015, 06:31:37 PM »

Offline Jonny CC

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I just don't quite get the obsession with Thomas' height and individual defensive ratings.  NBA defense is a team concept.  Yes, if you have a really incompetent and weak link, the team defense will breakdown.  But I don't think IT has been or will be that kind of defender.

He was brought here to be (1) our main offensive producer off the bench and (2) our best crunch-time scorer.  We get some good assists and guard play along with that.  What he subtracts individually in defense he more than makes up for on offense. 

In other words....a major upgrade over Rondo.

Well said.  His role is not to be a defensive stopper.  His role is to score.  And if the team plays well with him in the lineup, then I don't care what his PnR, PER, or Ps and Qs are.   
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Re: Brad Stevens has no intentions of starting Isaiah Thomas
« Reply #99 on: March 03, 2015, 06:46:32 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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"He held his own defensively about as well as any other PG in the league." Meaning, except for a handful of the league's premier PG defenders and absolute worst defenders, every starting PG is going to give up to opposing PGs about the same ratio of big games, medium games, and little games. Isaiah's '14 game log shows that same ratio, more or less. (I didn't understand your correlation/causation point about game logs...but to be fair, I don't think you did, either.) He's not great defensively, he's not bad. That is the original claim, by the way, that Isaiah is too undersized to handle other starting points every night. His game log the last season he started, last year, says otherwise. His opposing PER says otherwise.* Even the DWS you cited have him only slightly trailing the middle of the starting PG pack in '14. You now seem to want to crop and reframe my opinion of Isaiah's defense into "He's good!" where I've only been arguing for his averageness and not-badness.

*TP for that, I don't really know where to look for stats like that.
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Re: Brad Stevens has no intentions of starting Isaiah Thomas
« Reply #100 on: March 03, 2015, 07:38:50 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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"He held his own defensively about as well as any other PG in the league." Meaning, except for a handful of the league's premier PG defenders and absolute worst defenders, every starting PG is going to give up to opposing PGs about the same ratio of big games, medium games, and little games. Isaiah's '14 game log shows that same ratio, more or less. (I didn't understand your correlation/causation point about game logs...but to be fair, I don't think you did, either.) He's not great defensively, he's not bad. That is the original claim, by the way, that Isaiah is too undersized to handle other starting points every night. His game log the last season he started, last year, says otherwise. His opposing PER says otherwise.* Even the DWS you cited have him only slightly trailing the middle of the starting PG pack in '14. You now seem to want to crop and reframe my opinion of Isaiah's defense into "He's good!" where I've only been arguing for his averageness and not-badness.

*TP for that, I don't really know where to look for stats like that.

Cute slights aside, that's fair enough. My mistake, and TP for you.
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Re: Brad Stevens has no intentions of starting Isaiah Thomas
« Reply #101 on: March 03, 2015, 08:48:49 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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I suppose I'll have to repeat myself here:

Quote
I've followed Thomas' career since he came into the league. He's a fun player, and a bad defender. He is not an average defender. He is a below average defender. There is no metric you can find that will support your assertion that " Isaiah Thomas has already been matched up against the NBA's best starting point guards, night after night.... [And] He held his own defensively about as well as any other PG in the league."

What you're saying is demonstrably incorrect. I'm not sure how else to say that.
You haven't exactly demonstrated how it is not correct. A fuzzy, rudimentary statistic such as individual defensive win shares is absolutely worthless.

Looking at Thomas' advanced stats for the season when he started, I see nothing that indicates he was a defensive liability:

http://www.82games.com/1314/13SAC1.HTM

For reference, league-average PER is set at 15 for each season. Therefore, Thomas gave up about an average PER at his position in 13-14.

My web connection is on the fritz right now, but I'd like to point out that the point of contention is that " Isaiah Thomas has already been matched up against the NBA's best starting point guards, night after night.... [And] He held his own defensively about as well as any other PG in the league."

I'm calling bull on that. And so far I've yet to hear anything except why I'm a bad person for doubting the assertion.
You may call it whatever you want; it doesn't mean it's true. The fact that opposing PGs had a PER of 14.5 against IT in 13-14 indicates that their overall stat production that year was slightly below league average. Make of that what you will.

Doesn't PER disadvantage PGs (because of low shooting %s and high TOs) almost as much as it favors big men?  Could be relevant if the average is below 15, but some lazy Googling doesn't bring anything up.

Outside of the random vitriol this is one of the more interesting discussions in a while.

Re: Brad Stevens has no intentions of starting Isaiah Thomas
« Reply #102 on: March 03, 2015, 08:48:50 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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So, you're using a single game against the league's most elite shooting backcourt to judge Thomas's viability as a starting PG, and he failed in your eyes because one of the best shooters in NBA history wound up shooting the ball well? Against whom does Curry not shoot the ball well? If being burned by Curry's shooting were something that disqualified a player from being a starting PG, the league would only have one starting PG, Curry himself.
I'm using the entire history of NBA basketball to say that undersized shooting guards like Bradley rarely have long-term starter potential.

Okay, that's Bradley, at SG. (And it's still just a pattern based on players who are not Avery Bradley. What in the entire history of Avery Bradley indicates that he individually is not a viable defender of starting shooting guards? He's played for years. What's his data, his pattern say?)

Quote
Micro-guards like Earl Boykins/Isaiah Thomas can typically only be used as change-of-pace bench players, because they become a liability defensively.

Players like...typically. But individually, in real versus speculative outcomes, Isaiah Thomas was no worse than average defensively as a starting PG. Sometimes he got burned; most of the time he was average; sometimes he even clamped down on premier starting PG. All the while he was above average offensively most of the time.

Quote
There's a reason why Thomas is playing on his 3rd team in a couple years and it's due to his size.

It's due to perception about his size, it's due to conventional wisdom about his size. The point of being a wise general manager is to locate and acquire undervalued players. The whole idea with Isaiah Thomas is that the whole league's conventional thinking might be wrong in his individual case. That idea cannot possibly be judged by using...more conventional wisdom.

Quote
The Golden State game was a wonderful example of why the world is the way it is.

Nor can it be judged by using one game against the best shooting PG in the world and using that PG's completely unsurprising great shooting as proof that IT can't cut it. That's not moving the goalposts. It's more like re-spotting the ball a mere 10 yards from the goalposts. In other words, it is the easiest test of your thesis possible, one that every single PG in the league no matter how bad or average or great has probably failed multiple times.

Quote
One solution... trading Bradley for a larger guard?  Or if someone like James Young (6'6 215) supplants Bradley and we trade Bradley in a package to upgrade one of our other major needs (SF, PF, C), that means no matter what the combo (Thomas + Young, Thomas + Smart, Smart + Young) you'll have almost enough size to deal with the opposing team's back court.   Our issue is the Thomas + Bradley lineup.  That's a size mis-match no matter who they are going against.

Possibly. Or could just start Smart. Bradley could then sub for either, and as a SG against second units his height would be less of an issue. But it's not certain that his height is an issue, yet. How does Bradley do defensively against starting SG, particularly taller ones? There is data. Game footage. Game logs. Advanced metrics. There is no need to rely on conventional wisdom to answer these questions. In fact, that's exactly what the smartest GMs in sports have been doing for a good while now, examining conventional wisdom for flaws in order to discover underrated gems. Isaiah Thomas may someday be a textbook example, might someday have a rule of thumb named after him at a Sloan Conference, etc.

Quote
Find me a team that has successfully started a 5'9 PG next to a 6'2 shooting guard.

It's always nice to have a precedent, but sometimes good and great things have no exact precedent. Or even a remotely similar precedent. And it could even be foolish to require such a precedent for a league where the style of play is in flux, where values may have shifted to the point that the unprecedented is more possible than ever.

So I guess your overall point is that you hope Baby Napoleon will be the first micro-guard to break the mold and not be a liability defensively?  Would be nice. 

I remember Earl Boykins in his prime putting up 14-15 points off the bench.   I saw Nate Rob drop 45 points before.  It's possible for little guys with quickness and shooting ability to score.   It's a big man's game, though.  They'll get punished eventually on the other end. Again, for the same reason Dirk's shot is basically unguardable (he's taller than the majority of players that cover him), opponents getting covered by a 5'9 guard will have an advantage. 

Btw... I'm not going to get into the nitty gritty of advanced stats proving whether or not Thomas' defense is a tick above horrible.  He's a good offensive player.  Bit of a chucker, but he's fun.  I think if you stick him next to a large guard, you can probably get away with having a bit of a weak defensive PG.   Issue is if you attempt to play 5'9 Thomas with 6'2 Bradley.  I think the majority of teams will have the size to punish that back court.   

Long story short... he'll probably continue to come off the bench.

Re: Brad Stevens has no intentions of starting Isaiah Thomas
« Reply #103 on: March 03, 2015, 09:12:27 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Doesn't PER disadvantage PGs (because of low shooting %s and high TOs) almost as much as it favors big men?  Could be relevant if the average is below 15, but some lazy Googling doesn't bring anything up.

Outside of the random vitriol this is one of the more interesting discussions in a while.
Perhaps. The formula is way too complicated for me to be able to tell whether there is straight position bias (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_efficiency_rating). But it's worth noting that Thomas posted +5 in the PER department, so on the balance he seems considerably more productive than the opposition.
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Re: Brad Stevens has no intentions of starting Isaiah Thomas
« Reply #104 on: March 03, 2015, 09:51:02 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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"He held his own defensively about as well as any other PG in the league." Meaning, except for a handful of the league's premier PG defenders and absolute worst defenders, every starting PG is going to give up to opposing PGs about the same ratio of big games, medium games, and little games. Isaiah's '14 game log shows that same ratio, more or less. (I didn't understand your correlation/causation point about game logs...but to be fair, I don't think you did, either.) He's not great defensively, he's not bad. That is the original claim, by the way, that Isaiah is too undersized to handle other starting points every night. His game log the last season he started, last year, says otherwise. His opposing PER says otherwise.* Even the DWS you cited have him only slightly trailing the middle of the starting PG pack in '14. You now seem to want to crop and reframe my opinion of Isaiah's defense into "He's good!" where I've only been arguing for his averageness and not-badness.

*TP for that, I don't really know where to look for stats like that.
good for you. but you still havent addressed whether someone peed in your coffee and that is the reason you wrote a series of abusive posts.
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