Out-Tanking Tankers not realistic, Hawks-like Playoff Experience best option

[jonaslopes]

Ok, children, no more fights. We are not bad enough to get a top 7 pick and we are not good enough to go beyond the first round of playoffs. That's it. Deal with it. You can discuss tank/don't tank again after the off season - this is really pointless and useless now. End of discussion, everybody shake hands.

[jpotter33]

Never attribute to maliciousness what should instead be attributed to a tight schedule.

Haha TP, that was good.

[D.o.s.]

Never attribute to maliciousness what should instead be attributed to a tight schedule.

Haha TP, that was good.

Back at you. Good discussion.

Ok, children, no more fights. We are not bad enough to get a top 7 pick and we are not good enough to go beyond the first round of playoffs. That's it. Deal with it. You can discuss tank/don't tank again after the off season - this is really pointless and useless now. End of discussion, everybody shake hands.

I don't think there's any real animosity between any CBers. That's the charm. I sincerely doubt that this is the end of the argument, though.

[celticsclay]

D.o.s I totally agree on Jefferson, he is far and away the best player on the court tonight. However, I can't say I understand your assessment of Stephenson. He plays about 25 minutes a night and has cracked double figures in any statistical category (pt, rebounds or assists) twice in the last 11 games (11 points twice). He also is shooting 36% on the year and 15% from 3. Not sure how he is the talent that is going to make or break tonights game (unless he helps the celtics with terrible shooting and turnovers).

[D.o.s.]

D.o.s I totally agree on Jefferson, he is far and away the best player on the court tonight. However, I can't say I understand your assessment of Stephenson. He plays about 25 minutes a night and has cracked double figures in any statistical category (pt, rebounds or assists) twice in the last 11 games (11 points twice). He also is shooting 36% on the year and 15% from 3. Not sure how he is the talent that is going to make or break tonights game (unless he helps the celtics with terrible shooting and turnovers).

hence the 'underachieving all season' bit. As far as basketball talent is concerned, I think Jefferson and Stephenson are far and away at the top of anyone on either roster right now. Stephenson, though he has been playing like someone took his toys away all season, is still a tremendous player having an awful year.

[celticsclay]

D.o.s I totally agree on Jefferson, he is far and away the best player on the court tonight. However, I can't say I understand your assessment of Stephenson. He plays about 25 minutes a night and has cracked double figures in any statistical category (pt, rebounds or assists) twice in the last 11 games (11 points twice). He also is shooting 36% on the year and 15% from 3. Not sure how he is the talent that is going to make or break tonights game (unless he helps the celtics with terrible shooting and turnovers).

hence the 'underachieving all season' bit. As far as basketball talent is concerned, I think Jefferson and Stephenson are far and away at the top of anyone on either roster right now. Stephenson, though he has been playing like someone took his toys away all season, is still a tremendous player having an awful year.

Pretty sure the Celtics could get him for a late first round pick at this point. Would you jump at that trade?

[D.o.s.]

Absolutely.

A) we have roughly a million draft picks to send out

B) it would certainly p--- off Evan Turner, which is good, because Evan Turner sucks

C) Stephenson is likely to be a better player than the average late 1st rounder, so at worst he's an asset to flip later.

[Moranis]

As to the 10th and 15th pick, that should be self evident, but:
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/10th-overall/100509/
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/15th-overall/150509/
http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

Well, more like the 12th versus the 17th:
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/12th-overall/120509/
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/17th-overall/170509/

Solid bench players picked at both spots.
Just so everyone is clear here, that is, realistically, what we are comparing when picking at #12 versus #17. A slightly better chance at a solid bench player versus a slightly worse chance at a solid bench player.

um Boston is currently the 9th worst team in the league.  If Boston makes the playoffs it will almost certainly be as the 8th seed in the east, which is the 15th pick.  10 and 15 is much closer to reality than 12 and 17.  10 might get us a guy like WCS, Porzingis, or Turner, none of which are going to be available at 15.

You're right. I did my math wrong.
It is more like the 12th spot vs. the 15th spot, not 12th vs. 17th.
I know we are 9th worst in the league right now, but as I wrote, I'm comparing "just making the playoffs versus just missing the playoffs".

So, the comparison would be

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/12th-overall/120509/
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/15th-overall/150509/

The point is that... there isn't much difference. Both will get you solid bench guys, if you're lucky.

The problem with that of course is that anyone available at 15 was also available at 12.  So just because people are bad drafters, doesn't mean you should aim to be worse.  If you went back through and redrafted all drafts, I think you would find that there actually is a fairly significant difference between 10, 11 or 12 and 15. 

[celticsclay]

As to the 10th and 15th pick, that should be self evident, but:
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/10th-overall/100509/
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/15th-overall/150509/
http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

Well, more like the 12th versus the 17th:
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/12th-overall/120509/
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/17th-overall/170509/

Solid bench players picked at both spots.
Just so everyone is clear here, that is, realistically, what we are comparing when picking at #12 versus #17. A slightly better chance at a solid bench player versus a slightly worse chance at a solid bench player.

um Boston is currently the 9th worst team in the league.  If Boston makes the playoffs it will almost certainly be as the 8th seed in the east, which is the 15th pick.  10 and 15 is much closer to reality than 12 and 17.  10 might get us a guy like WCS, Porzingis, or Turner, none of which are going to be available at 15.

You're right. I did my math wrong.
It is more like the 12th spot vs. the 15th spot, not 12th vs. 17th.
I know we are 9th worst in the league right now, but as I wrote, I'm comparing "just making the playoffs versus just missing the playoffs".

So, the comparison would be

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/12th-overall/120509/
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/15th-overall/150509/

The point is that... there isn't much difference. Both will get you solid bench guys, if you're lucky.

The problem with that of course is that anyone available at 15 was also available at 12.  So just because people are bad drafters, doesn't mean you should aim to be worse.  If you went back through and redrafted all drafts, I think you would find that there actually is a fairly significant difference between 10, 11 or 12 and 15.

Your point is completely valid and true, and this gets to be pretty random, but it is funny to me that the 15th picks over the last 10 years have been significantly better than the 12th picks. Swift, Korolev and Armstrong as 3 lottery picks in a row in the 12th spot. Ouch

[MBunge]

As to the 10th and 15th pick, that should be self evident, but:
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/10th-overall/100509/
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/15th-overall/150509/
http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

Well, more like the 12th versus the 17th:
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/12th-overall/120509/
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/17th-overall/170509/

Solid bench players picked at both spots.
Just so everyone is clear here, that is, realistically, what we are comparing when picking at #12 versus #17. A slightly better chance at a solid bench player versus a slightly worse chance at a solid bench player.

um Boston is currently the 9th worst team in the league.  If Boston makes the playoffs it will almost certainly be as the 8th seed in the east, which is the 15th pick.  10 and 15 is much closer to reality than 12 and 17.  10 might get us a guy like WCS, Porzingis, or Turner, none of which are going to be available at 15.

You're right. I did my math wrong.
It is more like the 12th spot vs. the 15th spot, not 12th vs. 17th.
I know we are 9th worst in the league right now, but as I wrote, I'm comparing "just making the playoffs versus just missing the playoffs".

So, the comparison would be

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/12th-overall/120509/
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/15th-overall/150509/

The point is that... there isn't much difference. Both will get you solid bench guys, if you're lucky.

The problem with that of course is that anyone available at 15 was also available at 12.  So just because people are bad drafters, doesn't mean you should aim to be worse.  If you went back through and redrafted all drafts, I think you would find that there actually is a fairly significant difference between 10, 11 or 12 and 15.

11th picks

2013   Michael Carter-Williams   
2012   Meyers Leonard   
2011   Klay Thompson   
2010   Cole Aldrich   
2009   Terrence Williams   
2008   Jerryd Bayless   
2007   Acie Law   
2006   JJ Redick   
2005   Fran Vazquez   
2004   Andris Biedrins


15th picks

2013   Giannis Adetokunbo   
2012   Moe Harkless   
2011   Kawhi Leonard   
2010   Larry Sanders   
2009   Austin Daye   
2008   Robin Lopez   
2007   Rodney Stuckey   
2006   Cedric Simmons   
2005   Antoine Wright   
2004   Al Jefferson

How big of a difference is that?

Mike