Author Topic: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?  (Read 26388 times)

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Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #90 on: March 01, 2015, 10:07:39 PM »

Offline ImShakHeIsShaq

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People around here don't really know the term NBA hell. Is making the playoffs (with up and coming team) only to be bounced in the 1st/2nd round a bad thing?

Things you need to consider:

1. Cap Space

When was the last time we have this during rebuild? Danny had to work with lots of baggage during his first few years. He needed to dump many bad contracts and acquire assets. The only bad contract we have right now is Wallace. Everyone else is movable.

I hope you guys are not comparing us to Gilbert Arenas Wizards, Joe Johnson Hawks and the Current Brooklyn Nets. Those teams crippled their cap flexibility by overpaying their star players. Bradley might be slightly overpaid, but it's not like he signed a 100 million contract like those teams did with their stars.

2. Future Assets

The last time we cashed out our young fellas was for KG and Ray which brought us banner 17. Before that, we gave away Chauncey Billups and Joe Johnson for rental of role players who didn't have future with our team. We lost both Rodney Rogers after our ECF run and Joe Johnson turned out to be an all-star player. We just robbed Brooklyn their picks for an aging KG and Pierce. We might cash our young players but not this year just to get in the playoffs or any short term success that wouldn't lead us to banner 18. It will be for an established superstar or anyone who will be a part of the future.


Compare our team to Brooklyn Nets. Now that's an NBA hell. No promising prospects, no draft picks and no cap flexibility.

Our starting lineup has 1 player over 25, only around 4 on the entire team over 25 (full 15 players), we have 1 player on the team making $10m or more (racks up DNP), have been through 30 or so new faces, around 3 players with 5 FULL seasons of NBA ball played, best player makes under $7m and been here 5 games, the avg NBA fan probably can't name more than 2 of our players (varies), Sully and KO out, and a coach with 1 1/2 seasons of NBA coaching/experience!

Those aren't excuses, those are great things to overcome and we have been. Fighting for a NBA spot through all the adversity! GM did everything he could (except being stupid and clearing all solid players out) to get us losses but we are still fighting. He had no choice but to add IT for that price but he tried his best before that and we still managed to not fall apart before IT.

I love this team and it seems other coaches/gms around the league agree that CBS has us playing as well as you could considering what we've been dealt!
It takes me 3hrs to get to Miami and 1hr to get to Orlando... but I *SPIT* on their NBA teams! "Bless God and bless the (Celts)"-Lady GaGa (she said gays but she really meant Celts)

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #91 on: March 01, 2015, 10:17:21 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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The NBA landscape is a land of uncertainty. A #1 pick doesn't automatically make it the best player of that particular draft and neither can the other players ranging all the way down to #10. To me it has always been about proper development over rushed development. Highly touted rookies can be pressured to succeed immediately and sometimes they might have issues dealing with that type of pressure, whereas a player picked lower might be able to deal with that pressure. A lot of folks here downplay Marcus Smart and already stamp him as an average 13-15 PPG career player without even giving him the time to be developed. Who ever thought Ben McLemore was gonna break out the way he did. What about 30th pick Jimmy Butler? 10th pick Paul George? Isaiah Thomas was the freakin' 60th pick in the 2nd round back in 2011 and NOBODY thought he was gonna average 15 PPG like he's doing now! Dragic was also a 2nd round pick. Manu Ginobili. Lance Stephenson. For all we know we can unearth a stud right out of the 2nd round and not even notice it until a few years down the road. I have a feeling we already have a player that will break through down the road and will be our All-Star player of the future. If Brad Stevens flipped Evan Turner and has made him into a much better player I have no doubt he can turn James Young into a possible Bradley Beal!
so, you would be as happy with the celtics having the #30 pick as you would were they to have the #1 pick? somehow, i dont think you would be. because at the end of the day, we all know that it is a heck of a lot easier to pick really good players from #1-5 than from #25-30. and a lot more stars are selected from the #1-5 range than from #25-30.
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Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #92 on: March 01, 2015, 10:41:49 PM »

Offline oldtype

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There's no point to the tanking debate.

We tried. We traded every veteran player we could get anything of value for.

More marginal moves like giving away Bass for nothing wouldn't have moved the needle that much. The team is just playing too well and there's nothing more the front office can do beyond actively asking the players to lose games.

For better or worse, we're over-preforming and there's nothing we can do about it. Might as well enjoy the ride.


Great words from a great man

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #93 on: March 01, 2015, 10:46:45 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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We make the playoffs, get knocked out... And then pick 16th while a team better than us wins the lotto and adds Okafor.
If they are better than us why are they in the lottery? If we get the 16th pick I wouldn't be surprised if we moved up to the 8-10 range using our extra assets. Not a big deal.

There are two lottery teams in the western conference that have better records than the 7th and 8th seeds in the east. 

Hence playoff reform potentially coming.  Rich getting richer.


Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #94 on: March 01, 2015, 11:24:57 PM »

Online jpotter33

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There's no point to the tanking debate.

We tried. We traded every veteran player we could get anything of value for.

More marginal moves like giving away Bass for nothing wouldn't have moved the needle that much. The team is just playing too well and there's nothing more the front office can do beyond actively asking the players to lose games.

For better or worse, we're over-preforming and there's nothing we can do about it. Might as well enjoy the ride.

This might be the most intelligent post this forum has ever seen. Spot on. TP.

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #95 on: March 02, 2015, 03:47:52 AM »

Offline kraidstar

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Keep in mind, the two best players we've drafted in recent years came at #15 (Big Al) and #21 (Rondo).  In fact, we landed Big Al in a very similar situation to this one, where many fans were rooting for us to lose and miss the playoffs, but we snuck in largely due to the Chucky Atkins pickup at the trade deadline.

We'll be okay, so long as Danny doesn't miss on the picks we do have.

And if we had been worse we would have ended up with Robert Swift instead of Al, if you believe the stories.

One thing regarding expectations though: Rondo might be the best player taken at #21 in the modern era (depending on what you think of Michael Finley), and Al is probably in the top 3 taken at #15 too.

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/21st-overall/210509/

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/15th-overall/150509/

You can view this as a testament to Danny's draft skill, or as luck, or some combination of the two. But getting All-Star caliber guys even in the 10-15 range is pretty rare.

especially elite franchise players like russell, hondo, bird, pierce, etc.
very, very hard to win a title without an all-time great on your squad, and it'll be tough to get that player in the draft if we're out of the top-8 picks or so.
the good news is that having a young playoff team here greatly increases our odds of landing a stud via trade or free agency. i could see this team making noise in the playoffs next year, and other players wanting to come here. smart and co are a likable bunch, fun to watch and probably fun to play with.


Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #96 on: March 02, 2015, 07:21:45 AM »

Offline mctyson

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There's no point to the tanking debate.

We tried. We traded every veteran player we could get anything of value for.

More marginal moves like giving away Bass for nothing wouldn't have moved the needle that much. The team is just playing too well and there's nothing more the front office can do beyond actively asking the players to lose games.

For better or worse, we're over-preforming and there's nothing we can do about it. Might as well enjoy the ride.

A real tanking effort would be our front office trading Sully along with Rondo and Green, not re-signing Bradley last year, and not hiring Brad Stevens as your coach.

Instead they are getting Stevens the kind of players he likes and the team is playing better.  Not rocket science.

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #97 on: March 02, 2015, 08:10:20 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Boston is 11 games under .500.  In most years that is no where near a playoff birth.  This just isn't most years.
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Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #98 on: March 02, 2015, 08:17:40 AM »

Offline kne

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But getting All-Star caliber guys even in the 10-15 range is pretty rare.

especially elite franchise players like russell, hondo, bird, pierce, etc.
very, very hard to win a title without an all-time great on your squad, and it'll be tough to get that player in the draft if we're out of the top-8 picks or so.

Except we drafted PP with the 10th pick, in the same year that Dallas got Dirk at 9. Paul George was the tenth pick, Kawhi was there at 15, etc etc.

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #99 on: March 02, 2015, 09:18:15 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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And you still drop very quickly from Dirk/Kobe/Pierce level players to Tony Parker + Jason Terry type guys.

Tony Parker is closer to Dirk/Kobe/Pierce than to Jason Terry.

I think you're underestimating Jason Terry.

I wasn't trying to make the case against. 

The team we have is not going to finish bottom 5.  That's our situation. 

Is it hopeless? No.

Would it have been better if Ainge tore the team down further to guarantee a high draft pick? 

You might be right.

I don't like tanking, but the notion that we could finish with a crappy draft pick and still get our next franchise cornerstone is so much more unlikely than it seems to some posters (not you, necessarily) that I think it needs reiterating.

Kawhii Leonard was brought up earlier -- he went 15th to a different team, cost the Spurs their starting point guard of the future, and couldn't shoot the three until San Antonio got ahold of him. He's an example of everything tilting exactly right, not something that could be feasibly replicated.

You make the point that franchise cornerstones are much more unlikely to be picked outside the top five.  The flip side of that is that "franchise cornerstone" type players are fairly unlikely to be picked in the top five as well.

If you count Pierce, Nowitzki, and Bryant as the only franchise cornerstone type players picked later in the lottery in the past twenty years, I would counter that the amount of that caliber of players picked in the top five in the past twenty years, only includes one more player.

I would say that Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Lebron James, and Kevin Durant fit that bill.

That makes seven franchise players picked within the past twenty years.  Four of them were picked in the top seven, three of them were picked outside the top seven.

What this indicates to me is not that if you want a transcendent franchise changing level talent you better get a pick in the top half of the lottery, but rather that the type of player you are talking about comes along extremely rarely.

Basically, I would say that your transcendent level superstar comes around on average less than once every other draft.

Iverson wasn't a franchise cornerstone? I see. Regardless I agree with your overall point that the draft can be an absolute crap shoot. I would also add guys such as Melo and Kevin Love to that list as well as Vince Carter (the Toronto version was amazing).

If you want to start adding to the list, I submit pre-injury T-Mac, who was a dominant player, Tony Parker, who somewhat quietly has been chugging along as Duncan's top sidekick for all those titles in San Antonio, Shawn Marion, the Phoenix years (so underrated), Paul George, who was becoming a young superstar prior to his knee injury, Marc Gasol, who is reaching his superstar prime in his early thirties . . . Nash, Amare, Zach Randolph, Paul Millsap . . . Deandre Jordan . . . Kawhii Leonard? . . . Giannis? . . . Gobert? . . .

Stars can and do happen from outside the top half of the lottery.

The wonderful thing about the NBA draft is that all the wonderful players you'd want to draft at #5 will still be there at #1, and so on.

So. If we take the premise that Ainge isn't an idiot -- even if his drafting record has misses as well as hits -- then we have to assume giving him more options is a good thing. Because if you're utterly inept (see: Cleveland), then many years at the top of the lottery won't help you get out of it: only serendipitous luck will
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #100 on: March 02, 2015, 09:42:16 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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So I agree that it would be better long term to get a higher pick? The problem is, in order to  support this happening I would need to root against the Celtics, which would sap some of the enjoyment out of their games.

The C's traded everyone of value who won't be around long term, in my mind Ainge made every effort to improve the team's future asset base at the expense of the present.

At the deadline Danny traded for picks and under valued players to improve our asset base. 100% of the time I would prefer that to getting rid of assets to make the team worse and ensure a higher draft pick.

So I think Danny did his best to improve the future, and if this team overachieves and makes the playoffs then so be it.
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Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #101 on: March 02, 2015, 09:46:58 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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I agree, sort of. I don't root for losses, and I don't root for tanking. Because I don't enjoy watching the Celtics lose games, though, any entrance into the playoffs would seem to me to increase the number of losses our team would be forced to endure this year.

Watching the Celtics lose games 20 years ago wasn't fun. We had an ancient Dominique Wilkins, Dino, and Dee Brown. We won 35 games. We got trounced by the Magic in the first round, which was fun... because I got to watch Shaq and Penny.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2015, 09:53:01 AM by D.o.s. »
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #102 on: March 02, 2015, 11:05:49 AM »

Offline mgent

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If we make the playoffs, we're making noise.
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Andre Iguodala    Josh Childress    Marquis Daniels
Dwyane Wade    Leandro Barbosa
Kirk Hinrich    Toney Douglas   + the legendary Kevin McHale

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #103 on: March 02, 2015, 12:16:43 PM »

Offline djbilly33

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This team is entertaining yes but close to building a contender we are not. If we make the playoffs great, if not great. We already know the draft isn't lucky to us so there's no point in tanking. Besides there's no guarantee in the lottery. How many #1-5 picks turned out to be Superstars??

As for our current roster, there isn't much to get excited about. Not sure why everyone is so high on AB? The past 2 season people wanted him out of here because he's a deer in headlights. He still is, the only difference now is that we suck so someone needs to score. AB is too undersized to play SG and can't handle the pressure. We need a knockdown shooter who's deadly and can play tenacious defense. He is not that!! Thomas is a good backup PG, again too small to be an everyday starter. KO isn't developing and I feel is a waste of time. We have no dominant scorer, no big man and no bench. Yes we are playing better but that's mostly because Thomas needs to score a lot for us to do so.

Since I am not Ainge I know my thoughts don't matter but I figured I'd share them anyways.

Players I would keep:

Thomas as a back up PG
Smart, not sure if he would be a better SG or PG, I am in NY so I don't get to see them play
Bass, veteran leadership, bench player
Turner, back up SF

The rest I would trade away for a starting line up, lol

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #104 on: March 02, 2015, 01:23:02 PM »

Offline MBunge

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And you still drop very quickly from Dirk/Kobe/Pierce level players to Tony Parker + Jason Terry type guys.

Tony Parker is closer to Dirk/Kobe/Pierce than to Jason Terry.

I think you're underestimating Jason Terry.

I wasn't trying to make the case against. 

The team we have is not going to finish bottom 5.  That's our situation. 

Is it hopeless? No.

Would it have been better if Ainge tore the team down further to guarantee a high draft pick? 

You might be right.

I don't like tanking, but the notion that we could finish with a crappy draft pick and still get our next franchise cornerstone is so much more unlikely than it seems to some posters (not you, necessarily) that I think it needs reiterating.

Kawhii Leonard was brought up earlier -- he went 15th to a different team, cost the Spurs their starting point guard of the future, and couldn't shoot the three until San Antonio got ahold of him. He's an example of everything tilting exactly right, not something that could be feasibly replicated.

You make the point that franchise cornerstones are much more unlikely to be picked outside the top five.  The flip side of that is that "franchise cornerstone" type players are fairly unlikely to be picked in the top five as well.

If you count Pierce, Nowitzki, and Bryant as the only franchise cornerstone type players picked later in the lottery in the past twenty years, I would counter that the amount of that caliber of players picked in the top five in the past twenty years, only includes one more player.

I would say that Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Lebron James, and Kevin Durant fit that bill.

That makes seven franchise players picked within the past twenty years.  Four of them were picked in the top seven, three of them were picked outside the top seven.

What this indicates to me is not that if you want a transcendent franchise changing level talent you better get a pick in the top half of the lottery, but rather that the type of player you are talking about comes along extremely rarely.

Basically, I would say that your transcendent level superstar comes around on average less than once every other draft.

Iverson wasn't a franchise cornerstone? I see. Regardless I agree with your overall point that the draft can be an absolute crap shoot. I would also add guys such as Melo and Kevin Love to that list as well as Vince Carter (the Toronto version was amazing).

If you want to start adding to the list, I submit pre-injury T-Mac, who was a dominant player, Tony Parker, who somewhat quietly has been chugging along as Duncan's top sidekick for all those titles in San Antonio, Shawn Marion, the Phoenix years (so underrated), Paul George, who was becoming a young superstar prior to his knee injury, Marc Gasol, who is reaching his superstar prime in his early thirties . . . Nash, Amare, Zach Randolph, Paul Millsap . . . Deandre Jordan . . . Kawhii Leonard? . . . Giannis? . . . Gobert? . . .

Stars can and do happen from outside the top half of the lottery.

The wonderful thing about the NBA draft is that all the wonderful players you'd want to draft at #5 will still be there at #1, and so on.


Drafting a player at #1 when you could get them at #5 is a horrible waste of resources.  That's where you trade down and received additional assets.

Mike