Author Topic: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?  (Read 26372 times)

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Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #75 on: February 28, 2015, 10:22:48 AM »

Offline Celtics18

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And you still drop very quickly from Dirk/Kobe/Pierce level players to Tony Parker + Jason Terry type guys.

Tony Parker is closer to Dirk/Kobe/Pierce than to Jason Terry.

I think you're underestimating Jason Terry.

I wasn't trying to make the case against. 

The team we have is not going to finish bottom 5.  That's our situation. 

Is it hopeless? No.

Would it have been better if Ainge tore the team down further to guarantee a high draft pick? 

You might be right.

I don't like tanking, but the notion that we could finish with a crappy draft pick and still get our next franchise cornerstone is so much more unlikely than it seems to some posters (not you, necessarily) that I think it needs reiterating.

Kawhii Leonard was brought up earlier -- he went 15th to a different team, cost the Spurs their starting point guard of the future, and couldn't shoot the three until San Antonio got ahold of him. He's an example of everything tilting exactly right, not something that could be feasibly replicated.

You make the point that franchise cornerstones are much more unlikely to be picked outside the top five.  The flip side of that is that "franchise cornerstone" type players are fairly unlikely to be picked in the top five as well.

If you count Pierce, Nowitzki, and Bryant as the only franchise cornerstone type players picked later in the lottery in the past twenty years, I would counter that the amount of that caliber of players picked in the top five in the past twenty years, only includes one more player.

I would say that Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Lebron James, and Kevin Durant fit that bill.

That makes seven franchise players picked within the past twenty years.  Four of them were picked in the top seven, three of them were picked outside the top seven.

What this indicates to me is not that if you want a transcendent franchise changing level talent you better get a pick in the top half of the lottery, but rather that the type of player you are talking about comes along extremely rarely.

Basically, I would say that your transcendent level superstar comes around on average less than once every other draft.

 
« Last Edit: March 01, 2015, 04:50:31 AM by Celtics18 »
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #76 on: March 01, 2015, 04:46:20 AM »

Offline 255 Rings

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The NBA landscape is a land of uncertainty. A #1 pick doesn't automatically make it the best player of that particular draft and neither can the other players ranging all the way down to #10. To me it has always been about proper development over rushed development. Highly touted rookies can be pressured to succeed immediately and sometimes they might have issues dealing with that type of pressure, whereas a player picked lower might be able to deal with that pressure. A lot of folks here downplay Marcus Smart and already stamp him as an average 13-15 PPG career player without even giving him the time to be developed. Who ever thought Ben McLemore was gonna break out the way he did. What about 30th pick Jimmy Butler? 10th pick Paul George? Isaiah Thomas was the freakin' 60th pick in the 2nd round back in 2011 and NOBODY thought he was gonna average 15 PPG like he's doing now! Dragic was also a 2nd round pick. Manu Ginobili. Lance Stephenson. For all we know we can unearth a stud right out of the 2nd round and not even notice it until a few years down the road. I have a feeling we already have a player that will break through down the road and will be our All-Star player of the future. If Brad Stevens flipped Evan Turner and has made him into a much better player I have no doubt he can turn James Young into a possible Bradley Beal!

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #77 on: March 01, 2015, 08:08:38 AM »

Offline tyrone biggums

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And you still drop very quickly from Dirk/Kobe/Pierce level players to Tony Parker + Jason Terry type guys.

Tony Parker is closer to Dirk/Kobe/Pierce than to Jason Terry.

I think you're underestimating Jason Terry.

I wasn't trying to make the case against. 

The team we have is not going to finish bottom 5.  That's our situation. 

Is it hopeless? No.

Would it have been better if Ainge tore the team down further to guarantee a high draft pick? 

You might be right.

I don't like tanking, but the notion that we could finish with a crappy draft pick and still get our next franchise cornerstone is so much more unlikely than it seems to some posters (not you, necessarily) that I think it needs reiterating.

Kawhii Leonard was brought up earlier -- he went 15th to a different team, cost the Spurs their starting point guard of the future, and couldn't shoot the three until San Antonio got ahold of him. He's an example of everything tilting exactly right, not something that could be feasibly replicated.

You make the point that franchise cornerstones are much more unlikely to be picked outside the top five.  The flip side of that is that "franchise cornerstone" type players are fairly unlikely to be picked in the top five as well.

If you count Pierce, Nowitzki, and Bryant as the only franchise cornerstone type players picked later in the lottery in the past twenty years, I would counter that the amount of that caliber of players picked in the top five in the past twenty years, only includes one more player.

I would say that Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Lebron James, and Kevin Durant fit that bill.

That makes seven franchise players picked within the past twenty years.  Four of them were picked in the top seven, three of them were picked outside the top seven.

What this indicates to me is not that if you want a transcendent franchise changing level talent you better get a pick in the top half of the lottery, but rather that the type of player you are talking about comes along extremely rarely.

Basically, I would say that your transcendent level superstar comes around on average less than once every other draft.

Iverson wasn't a franchise cornerstone? I see. Regardless I agree with your overall point that the draft can be an absolute crap shoot. I would also add guys such as Melo and Kevin Love to that list as well as Vince Carter (the Toronto version was amazing).

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #78 on: March 01, 2015, 08:13:59 AM »

Offline mctyson

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I don't like tanking, but the notion that we could finish with a crappy draft pick and still get our next franchise cornerstone is so much more unlikely than it seems to some posters (not you, necessarily) that I think it needs reiterating.

I don't think anyone who is anti-tanking (me) is saying that you are less likely to draft an All-Star in the 20's than in the Top 10.  The problem I have is no one who is pro-tanking or pro-losing more (not you, necessarily) is quantifying these alternate likelihoods so his/her argument can be taken seriously.  And I am sure that some blogger has already done the work, someone just needs to post it.

This isn't a thorough analysis by any means, but look at this list and tell me there aren't some frequently scary outcomes of drafting 1st overall:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/


Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #79 on: March 01, 2015, 08:30:18 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I don't think Danny is stockpiling draft picks because he thinks that they are all going to give us a shot at the next Paul Pierce or Paul George (star players that slipped into a get-able range).  I think Danny knows full well that drafting is a crap shoot at best but we now have a lot more rolls of the dice.

I suspect that Danny will look for other trades like the 1st for Thomas or maybe larger scale trades with multiple players and picks for hopefully an established top player.  He can do that and still have enough picks to take some chances in the draft and find the next Butler or Paul George.

Making the playoffs or not this year affects only one draft pick (actually two but I am not worrying about second rounders too much).  We are probably going to be using about 2 first rounders per year for the next 3-4 years.  That one pick being 6 or 10 or whatever just does not make that much difference in the big scheme of things.  It is going to seem like a bigger deal up to the draft but we will pick someone, probably not exactly who we hoped for, they maybe be better or worse than expected, then we move on to the next pick.

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #80 on: March 01, 2015, 11:06:06 AM »

Offline Celtics18

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And you still drop very quickly from Dirk/Kobe/Pierce level players to Tony Parker + Jason Terry type guys.

Tony Parker is closer to Dirk/Kobe/Pierce than to Jason Terry.

I think you're underestimating Jason Terry.

I wasn't trying to make the case against. 

The team we have is not going to finish bottom 5.  That's our situation. 

Is it hopeless? No.

Would it have been better if Ainge tore the team down further to guarantee a high draft pick? 

You might be right.

I don't like tanking, but the notion that we could finish with a crappy draft pick and still get our next franchise cornerstone is so much more unlikely than it seems to some posters (not you, necessarily) that I think it needs reiterating.

Kawhii Leonard was brought up earlier -- he went 15th to a different team, cost the Spurs their starting point guard of the future, and couldn't shoot the three until San Antonio got ahold of him. He's an example of everything tilting exactly right, not something that could be feasibly replicated.

You make the point that franchise cornerstones are much more unlikely to be picked outside the top five.  The flip side of that is that "franchise cornerstone" type players are fairly unlikely to be picked in the top five as well.

If you count Pierce, Nowitzki, and Bryant as the only franchise cornerstone type players picked later in the lottery in the past twenty years, I would counter that the amount of that caliber of players picked in the top five in the past twenty years, only includes one more player.

I would say that Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Lebron James, and Kevin Durant fit that bill.

That makes seven franchise players picked within the past twenty years.  Four of them were picked in the top seven, three of them were picked outside the top seven.

What this indicates to me is not that if you want a transcendent franchise changing level talent you better get a pick in the top half of the lottery, but rather that the type of player you are talking about comes along extremely rarely.

Basically, I would say that your transcendent level superstar comes around on average less than once every other draft.

Iverson wasn't a franchise cornerstone? I see. Regardless I agree with your overall point that the draft can be an absolute crap shoot. I would also add guys such as Melo and Kevin Love to that list as well as Vince Carter (the Toronto version was amazing).

If you want to start adding to the list, I submit pre-injury T-Mac, who was a dominant player, Tony Parker, who somewhat quietly has been chugging along as Duncan's top sidekick for all those titles in San Antonio, Shawn Marion, the Phoenix years (so underrated), Paul George, who was becoming a young superstar prior to his knee injury, Marc Gasol, who is reaching his superstar prime in his early thirties . . . Nash, Amare, Zach Randolph, Paul Millsap . . . Deandre Jordan . . . Kawhii Leonard? . . . Giannis? . . . Gobert? . . .

Stars can and do happen from outside the top half of the lottery. 
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #81 on: March 01, 2015, 11:55:44 AM »

Offline BballTim

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And you still drop very quickly from Dirk/Kobe/Pierce level players to Tony Parker + Jason Terry type guys.

Tony Parker is closer to Dirk/Kobe/Pierce than to Jason Terry.

   Much as I hate to say it, while Parker might be closer to PP than Terry, he's much closer to Terry than he is to Dirk/Kobe.

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #82 on: March 01, 2015, 01:06:15 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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We make the playoffs, get knocked out... And then pick 16th while a team better than us wins the lotto and adds Okafor.

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #83 on: March 01, 2015, 01:33:47 PM »

Offline Redz

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Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #84 on: March 01, 2015, 08:15:09 PM »

Offline Boston Garden Leprechaun

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welcome to nba hell.  :P

LET'S GO CELTICS!

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #85 on: March 01, 2015, 08:31:59 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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We make the playoffs, get knocked out... And then pick 16th while a team better than us wins the lotto and adds Okafor.
If they are better than us why are they in the lottery? If we get the 16th pick I wouldn't be surprised if we moved up to the 8-10 range using our extra assets. Not a big deal.

The team that was last used as the consensus purgatory team was the Hawks. Then with some solid free agent signings they are the best team in the east. We have a lot more quality picks to improve our team than they ever did.
DKC:  Rockets
CB Draft: Memphis Grizz
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Next 3 picks: 4.14, 4.15, 4.19

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #86 on: March 01, 2015, 09:08:01 PM »

Offline jonaslopes

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We make the playoffs, get knocked out... And then pick 16th while a team better than us wins the lotto and adds Okafor.

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It's nice seeing him get exposed as overrated after having argued with fellow fans for years that he was overrated.. but I don't hate him. I'm looking forward to seeing him [...] bounce around to a couple more teams... eventually come back to Boston[...] and helps us as a role player until he runs himself out of the league.
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Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #87 on: March 01, 2015, 09:08:02 PM »

Offline mr. dee

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People around here don't really know the term NBA hell. Is making the playoffs (with up and coming team) only to be bounced in the 1st/2nd round a bad thing?

Things you need to consider:

1. Cap Space

When was the last time we have this during rebuild? Danny had to work with lots of baggage during his first few years. He needed to dump many bad contracts and acquire assets. The only bad contract we have right now is Wallace. Everyone else is movable.

I hope you guys are not comparing us to Gilbert Arenas Wizards, Joe Johnson Hawks and the Current Brooklyn Nets. Those teams crippled their cap flexibility by overpaying their star players. Bradley might be slightly overpaid, but it's not like he signed a 100 million contract like those teams did with their stars.

2. Future Assets

The last time we cashed out our young fellas was for KG and Ray which brought us banner 17. Before that, we gave away Chauncey Billups and Joe Johnson for rental of role players who didn't have future with our team. We lost both Rodney Rogers after our ECF run and Joe Johnson turned out to be an all-star player. We just robbed Brooklyn their picks for an aging KG and Pierce. We might cash our young players but not this year just to get in the playoffs or any short term success that wouldn't lead us to banner 18. It will be for an established superstar or anyone who will be a part of the future.


Compare our team to Brooklyn Nets. Now that's an NBA hell. No promising prospects, no draft picks and no cap flexibility.

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #88 on: March 01, 2015, 09:50:56 PM »

Offline BleedGreen97

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"If they are better than us why are they in the lottery? If we get the 16th pick I wouldn't be surprised if we moved up to the 8-10 range using our extra assets. Not a big deal.

The team that was last used as the consensus purgatory team was the Hawks. Then with some solid free agent signings they are the best team in the east. We have a lot more quality picks to improve our team than they ever did."

People keep using this comparison about the hawks getting the 8 seed then becoming the best team in the East. The thing many people forget is that the Hawks had lost Al Horford to an injury and prior to that injury they were the 3 seed in an eastern conference much stronger than today's.
I am as anti-tank as I can get I just think it is extremely unreasonable to think if this same team takes the floor next season that they have a legitimate chance at running the table.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2015, 09:57:03 PM by BleedGreen97 »

Re: We make the playoffs...get knocked out. then what?
« Reply #89 on: March 01, 2015, 09:54:28 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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"If they are better than us why are they in the lottery? If we get the 16th pick I wouldn't be surprised if we moved up to the 8-10 range using our extra assets. Not a big deal.

The team that was last used as the consensus purgatory team was the Hawks. Then with some solid free agent signings they are the best team in the east. We have a lot more quality picks to improve our team than they ever did."

People keep using this comparison
moving up to 8 or 10 from 16 would take serious assets, which the celtics have.

but moving up to 7-8 from the 10 spot would take fewer assets, and maybe get a better player.

at this point i see the arguments for both side of the "lottery's great" versus "less lossing, make the playoffs." possibly in 3 years it wont matter and either route will have achieved the same goal. but for me, increasing the chances of getting talent trumps the immediate indulgence of the celtics making, then being whipped in the playoffs.
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