Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector

[loco_91]

Calling BS on this stat based on the fact that Anthony Davis rates out as a below average rim protector, with NEGATIVE .73 points saved per 36. Other players rated as defensive liabilities include Marc Gasol (-.38), Joakim Noah (-1.61), and Chris Bosh (-2). There are good stats and bad stats... I'm putting this one firmly in the 'bad' bin.

[Eja117]

Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.

If analytics are trying to tell us that Tyler Zeller is in any way, shape, or form a better rim protector than D Howard than analytics have failed us and are a farce.
I like Zeller, but lets not get over analytical here.

Data never tries to tell anyone anything.  The point of my post was to illustrate that we need to interpret the data before use it to make any conclusions.

If you have data that shows one guy gets three blocks a game and the other guy gets one and you have data that shows one guy holds opponent fg% lower than the other that's all the data you need and it's usually pretty obvious right away. T Zeller is an ok defender. He is nowhere near elite. I would be more inclined to be interested in what other players would say. Who do you fear in the paint? Do you fear Zeller?

Your criteria for rim protection is just blocks and OFG%?

Player	bp36	OFG%
David Lee	1.7	48.4
Tyson Chandler	1.5	51.3

you can easily take numbers out of context. These are

I really don't understand why you're arguing with me then.  That's what I've been saying from the very beginning.

You've been saying from the very beginning that numbers have been taken out of context and interpreted to show that Ty Zeller is an above average defender? Ok. In that case I agree with you

I never took any position on Zeller's ability.  I've just been saying that raw data doesn't tell you anything until you interpret it.

You seem to be saying that as long as a player passes your eye test, you can pick and choose whatever data you please to support your conclusion.  (Saying blocks and OFG% is "all the data you need" about Howard and Zeller, but "taken out of context" when it's about Lee and Chandler).

If you just want to evaluate players with your eyes, that's completely fine.  I wouldn't judge anyone for doing that.  It many/most cases it works.  Just don't turn around and say that your conclusions are backed up by data that you chose selectively.

the raw data doesn't tell you anything until you interpret it? So 3 blocks a game has to be interpreted? A guy that hits 100% fts in 100 attempts has to be interpreted?

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Calling BS on this stat based on the fact that Anthony Davis rates out as a below average rim protector, with NEGATIVE .73 points saved per 36. Other players rated as defensive liabilities include Marc Gasol (-.38), Joakim Noah (-1.61), and Chris Bosh (-2). There are good stats and bad stats... I'm putting this one firmly in the 'bad' bin.

This stat is incomplete by itself, but the OFG% at the rim is the best way to determine the ability to defend the rim.

Davis (48%), Gasol (49%), Noah (54%), and Bosh (55%) are not as good at the rim as many think. The value of Bosh, Noah, and Davis is their agility to switch or hedge on the pick-and-roll. In other words, they may keep players out of the paint before they even get to the rim. We really need to be careful not to equate dynamic blocks with rim protection. BPG have both numerical and non-numerical effects at protecting the rim, but there are other factors at play.

Largely, the difference statistically between these guys and a player like Zeller is fouls. Young bigs struggle with foul trouble, just like Noah as a rookie (5.5 fouls per 48 minutes). If bigs are able to stay out of foul trouble, defend the rim between 45-50 OFG%, and contest at a high rate, then they are a solid defensive bigs. I have hope that both Zeller and Olynyk can lessen their FPG while maintaining their contest rate and OFG% at the rim.

The difference between those guys and a player like Zeller is also reputation, which is generally formed from getting big blocks or big stops at the rim. That can scare people away a bit.

[kozlodoev]

the raw data doesn't tell you anything until you interpret it? So 3 blocks a game has to be interpreted? A guy that hits 100% fts in 100 attempts has to be interpreted?

Of course it has to be interpreted. Everything has to be interpreted, albeit to a different level.

Let me give you an example: baseball was a relatively late add for me. So I'm sitting there one day looking at JD Drew's stats: .280 avg, .390 OBP, 20 HR. Does this tell me anything on its own merits? No, not really. Being able to score a base hit in 28% of one's at bats is, in vacuum, an awfully low number. On the other hand, if you know how to interpret baseball stats, you'd realize that in a league where the top hitters barely reach the mid-30%, 28% is kind of decent.

Same thing for basketball. You can't evaluate stats in a vacuum, you have to have a reference point.