Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector

[Eja117]

Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.

If analytics are trying to tell us that Tyler Zeller is in any way, shape, or form a better rim protector than D Howard than analytics have failed us and are a farce.
I like Zeller, but lets not get over analytical here.

Data never tries to tell anyone anything.  The point of my post was to illustrate that we need to interpret the data before use it to make any conclusions.

If you have data that shows one guy gets three blocks a game and the other guy gets one and you have data that shows one guy holds opponent fg% lower than the other that's all the data you need and it's usually pretty obvious right away. T Zeller is an ok defender. He is nowhere near elite. I would be more inclined to be interested in what other players would say. Who do you fear in the paint? Do you fear Zeller?

[e4e5sesame]

Agree. You cannot mistake activity for achievement. But hustle is a skill, and when combined with above average rim protecting numbers, Zeller ranks in the top 15 in the NBA in points saved per 48 minutes.

I think his rim protecting number is pretty average (currently at 50% and sitting pretty much in the middle of the pack). So he's average at challenging shots, but hustles a lot  (55% is a top ten rate). I guess that's better than an average "shot challenger" that doesn't hustle a lot, but still not much to write home about.

I like Zeller. He just won't be confused for any sort of defensive force in the paint right now.

Think about it like this: Player A contests 10 shots at the rim a game, holding drivers to only 4 makes with 2 BPG. However, Player A is sometimes nearby but fails to contest 5 more shots a game-all makes. His OFG% at the rim would be 40%, but the scheme dictates that he should have protected the rim five more times and failed to do so. In other words, in reality, he is allowing 9/15 drives to score, or about 60%.

Player B contests 13 shots at the rim a game, holding drivers to 6 makes with 1 BPG. Player B is sometimes nearby but fails to contest 2 more shots a game-both makes. His OFG% at the rim would be 46%, but the scheme dictates that he should have protected the rim two more times and failed to do so. In other words, in reality, he is allowing 8/15 drives to score, or about 53%

Activity does not mean everything if Player B fails to prevent the shot from going in, but Player A's BPG and OFG% can look better than Player B's simply because it is difficult to quantify a lack of effort.

I would always choose an average player with good hustle over a good player with average hustle. You can coach skills. You can't coach heart.

There's an awful lot of assumptions in this narrative, the most egregious being the one that when you don't challenge a shot, you're ALWAYS in the area and ALWAYS supposed to be challenging it (as well as that it's ALWAYS scored).

Let's just look at Dwight Howard's contest rate for a second -- starting with the fact that BECAUSE he is a well-established rim protector, teams can and will actively scheme to keep him away from the paint on high picks. This may effectively lower the rate, even though there's really little to do about it if you're the player. On the other hand, if you look at Zeller, you don't exactly think, "Oh, gotta win the game by keeping Zeller out of the paint".

TP. This is exactly the kind of analysis I was asking for so that we can decide what the data means.

Thank you.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Agree. You cannot mistake activity for achievement. But hustle is a skill, and when combined with above average rim protecting numbers, Zeller ranks in the top 15 in the NBA in points saved per 48 minutes.

I think his rim protecting number is pretty average (currently at 50% and sitting pretty much in the middle of the pack). So he's average at challenging shots, but hustles a lot  (55% is a top ten rate). I guess that's better than an average "shot challenger" that doesn't hustle a lot, but still not much to write home about.

I like Zeller. He just won't be confused for any sort of defensive force in the paint right now.

Think about it like this: Player A contests 10 shots at the rim a game, holding drivers to only 4 makes with 2 BPG. However, Player A is sometimes nearby but fails to contest 5 more shots a game-all makes. His OFG% at the rim would be 40%, but the scheme dictates that he should have protected the rim five more times and failed to do so. In other words, in reality, he is allowing 9/15 drives to score, or about 60%.

Player B contests 13 shots at the rim a game, holding drivers to 6 makes with 1 BPG. Player B is sometimes nearby but fails to contest 2 more shots a game-both makes. His OFG% at the rim would be 46%, but the scheme dictates that he should have protected the rim two more times and failed to do so. In other words, in reality, he is allowing 8/15 drives to score, or about 53%

Activity does not mean everything if Player B fails to prevent the shot from going in, but Player A's BPG and OFG% can look better than Player B's simply because it is difficult to quantify a lack of effort.

I would always choose an average player with good hustle over a good player with average hustle. You can coach skills. You can't coach heart.

There's an awful lot of assumptions in this narrative, the most egregious being the one that when you don't challenge a shot, you're ALWAYS in the area and ALWAYS supposed to be challenging it (as well as that it's ALWAYS scored).

Let's just look at Dwight Howard's contest rate for a second -- starting with the fact that BECAUSE he is a well-established rim protector, teams can and will actively scheme to keep him away from the paint on high picks. This may effectively lower the rate, even though there's really little to do about it if you're the player. On the other hand, if you look at Zeller, you don't exactly think, "Oh, gotta win the game by keeping Zeller out of the paint".

I honestly think we probably agree on how skilled Zeller is, but I am trying to get people to appreciate him more and you are trying to make sure I don't over-evaluate him.

I think he is a high-end backup center or low-end starting center. But I also want people to recognize that he is only in his third year, and NBA bigs take more time to develop.

[Evantime34]

I am a Zeller fan... as our back up 5 long term.

If we don't add someone in the offseason with the potential to eventually take his starting role I will not be happy. I would be fine drafting WCS or Turner and then having Zeller start until the guy we drafted is ready.

As a free agent I think a non crazy salary option would be Asik.

Asik has no hands, no offensive ability, and is averaging the same as Zeller in OFG% at the rim (50% this year and 47% last year). He would be a step back for us. I'm all for a better rim protector, but in order for it to be worth it, they need to be significantly better as a defender and as skill offensively as Zeller.

Asik is absolutely significantly better than Zeller on defense (and rebounding).

Earlier someone made the argument that scheme matters in terms of rim protection stats. Well the C's scheme is to force ball handlers away from screens so our bigs only have to defend straight line drives and don't have to slide over in the pick and roll.

Zeller is putting up good numbers in a scheme where he is only defending drives right at him rather than having to move laterally to defend. In other words the scheme is as big friendly as possible because our bigs aren't great defending the pick and roll.

Asik protects the rim, but more importantly he can effectively play any type of pick and roll defense not just in a system that is favorable for him. Zeller's numbers in this system are not equal to Asik numbers in a system that requires him to hedge, recover then get back into the lane in time to contest a shot.

[e4e5sesame]

Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.

If analytics are trying to tell us that Tyler Zeller is in any way, shape, or form a better rim protector than D Howard than analytics have failed us and are a farce.
I like Zeller, but lets not get over analytical here.

Data never tries to tell anyone anything.  The point of my post was to illustrate that we need to interpret the data before use it to make any conclusions.

If you have data that shows one guy gets three blocks a game and the other guy gets one and you have data that shows one guy holds opponent fg% lower than the other that's all the data you need and it's usually pretty obvious right away. T Zeller is an ok defender. He is nowhere near elite. I would be more inclined to be interested in what other players would say. Who do you fear in the paint? Do you fear Zeller?

Your criteria for rim protection is just blocks and OFG%?

Player	bp36	OFG%
David Lee	1.7	48.4
Tyson Chandler	1.5	51.3

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I am a Zeller fan... as our back up 5 long term.

If we don't add someone in the offseason with the potential to eventually take his starting role I will not be happy. I would be fine drafting WCS or Turner and then having Zeller start until the guy we drafted is ready.

As a free agent I think a non crazy salary option would be Asik.

Asik has no hands, no offensive ability, and is averaging the same as Zeller in OFG% at the rim (50% this year and 47% last year). He would be a step back for us. I'm all for a better rim protector, but in order for it to be worth it, they need to be significantly better as a defender and as skill offensively as Zeller.

Asik is absolutely significantly better than Zeller on defense (and rebounding).

Earlier someone made the argument that scheme matters in terms of rim protection stats. Well the C's scheme is to force ball handlers away from screens so our bigs only have to defend straight line drives and don't have to slide over in the pick and roll.

Zeller is putting up good numbers in a scheme where he is only defending drives right at him rather than having to move laterally to defend. In other words the scheme is as big friendly as possible because our bigs aren't great defending the pick and roll.

Asik protects the rim, but more importantly he can effectively play any type of pick and roll defense not just in a system that is favorable for him. Zeller's numbers in this system are not equal to Asik numbers in a system that requires him to hedge, recover then get back into the lane in time to contest a shot.

I disagree with your assessment on our scheme vs. the Pelicans scheme, but there is really no way to see who is right and who is wrong. I think our bigs are required to have good agility and to stop more than just direct drives at them. I also think Asik does not do a particularly good job at pick-and-roll defense. I think Zeller is more agile than Asik, and that he can "hedge" better than Asik. Asik is best as a weakside defender.

You are right that he is a better rebounder though.

Edit: I was wrong. Asik ranks in the 80% in pick and roll defense. Zeller is in the 44%. Sully actually ranks in the 71%.

Edit: Edit: I was wrong again. that is defense on the roll man's shots, not on pick-and-rolls in general. Still looking.

[Eja117]

Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.

If analytics are trying to tell us that Tyler Zeller is in any way, shape, or form a better rim protector than D Howard than analytics have failed us and are a farce.
I like Zeller, but lets not get over analytical here.

Data never tries to tell anyone anything.  The point of my post was to illustrate that we need to interpret the data before use it to make any conclusions.

If you have data that shows one guy gets three blocks a game and the other guy gets one and you have data that shows one guy holds opponent fg% lower than the other that's all the data you need and it's usually pretty obvious right away. T Zeller is an ok defender. He is nowhere near elite. I would be more inclined to be interested in what other players would say. Who do you fear in the paint? Do you fear Zeller?

Your criteria for rim protection is just blocks and OFG%?

Player	bp36	OFG%
David Lee	1.7	48.4
Tyson Chandler	1.5	51.3

you can easily take numbers out of context. These are

[e4e5sesame]

Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.

If analytics are trying to tell us that Tyler Zeller is in any way, shape, or form a better rim protector than D Howard than analytics have failed us and are a farce.
I like Zeller, but lets not get over analytical here.

Data never tries to tell anyone anything.  The point of my post was to illustrate that we need to interpret the data before use it to make any conclusions.

If you have data that shows one guy gets three blocks a game and the other guy gets one and you have data that shows one guy holds opponent fg% lower than the other that's all the data you need and it's usually pretty obvious right away. T Zeller is an ok defender. He is nowhere near elite. I would be more inclined to be interested in what other players would say. Who do you fear in the paint? Do you fear Zeller?

Your criteria for rim protection is just blocks and OFG%?

Player	bp36	OFG%
David Lee	1.7	48.4
Tyson Chandler	1.5	51.3

you can easily take numbers out of context. These are

I really don't understand why you're arguing with me then.  That's what I've been saying from the very beginning.

[kozlodoev]

I honestly think we probably agree on how skilled Zeller is, but I am trying to get people to appreciate him more and you are trying to make sure I don't over-evaluate him.

I think he is a high-end backup center or low-end starting center. But I also want people to recognize that he is only in his third year, and NBA bigs take more time to develop.

I don't think many people fail to recognize Zeller. He's a modestly talented young player who's asked to do a job that's a little above his pay grade right now. He may still improve over the next couple of years, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

[Eja117]

Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.

If analytics are trying to tell us that Tyler Zeller is in any way, shape, or form a better rim protector than D Howard than analytics have failed us and are a farce.
I like Zeller, but lets not get over analytical here.

Data never tries to tell anyone anything.  The point of my post was to illustrate that we need to interpret the data before use it to make any conclusions.

If you have data that shows one guy gets three blocks a game and the other guy gets one and you have data that shows one guy holds opponent fg% lower than the other that's all the data you need and it's usually pretty obvious right away. T Zeller is an ok defender. He is nowhere near elite. I would be more inclined to be interested in what other players would say. Who do you fear in the paint? Do you fear Zeller?

Your criteria for rim protection is just blocks and OFG%?

Player	bp36	OFG%
David Lee	1.7	48.4
Tyson Chandler	1.5	51.3

you can easily take numbers out of context. These are

I really don't understand why you're arguing with me then.  That's what I've been saying from the very beginning.

You've been saying from the very beginning that numbers have been taken out of context and interpreted to show that Ty Zeller is an above average defender? Ok. In that case I agree with you

[Evantime34]

I am a Zeller fan... as our back up 5 long term.

If we don't add someone in the offseason with the potential to eventually take his starting role I will not be happy. I would be fine drafting WCS or Turner and then having Zeller start until the guy we drafted is ready.

As a free agent I think a non crazy salary option would be Asik.

Asik has no hands, no offensive ability, and is averaging the same as Zeller in OFG% at the rim (50% this year and 47% last year). He would be a step back for us. I'm all for a better rim protector, but in order for it to be worth it, they need to be significantly better as a defender and as skill offensively as Zeller.

Asik is absolutely significantly better than Zeller on defense (and rebounding).

Earlier someone made the argument that scheme matters in terms of rim protection stats. Well the C's scheme is to force ball handlers away from screens so our bigs only have to defend straight line drives and don't have to slide over in the pick and roll.

Zeller is putting up good numbers in a scheme where he is only defending drives right at him rather than having to move laterally to defend. In other words the scheme is as big friendly as possible because our bigs aren't great defending the pick and roll.

Asik protects the rim, but more importantly he can effectively play any type of pick and roll defense not just in a system that is favorable for him. Zeller's numbers in this system are not equal to Asik numbers in a system that requires him to hedge, recover then get back into the lane in time to contest a shot.

I disagree with your assessment on our scheme vs. the Pelicans scheme, but there is really no way to see who is right and who is wrong. I think our bigs are required to have good agility and to stop more than just direct drives at them. I also think Asik does not do a particularly good job at pick-and-roll defense. I think Zeller is more agile than Asik, and that he can "hedge" better than Asik. Asik is best as a weakside defender.

You are right that he is a better rebounder though.

Edit: I was wrong. Asik ranks in the 80% in pick and roll defense. Zeller is in the 44%. Sully actually ranks in the 71%.

Edit: Edit: I was wrong again. that is defense on the roll man's shots, not on pick-and-rolls in general. Still looking.

What scheme do you think the C's run. I see our guards going out of there way to force the ball away from the screener often making contact with the screener and giving the opposing pg a direct line to the hoop. I'll try to find some clips to show this.

[e4e5sesame]

Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.

If analytics are trying to tell us that Tyler Zeller is in any way, shape, or form a better rim protector than D Howard than analytics have failed us and are a farce.
I like Zeller, but lets not get over analytical here.

Data never tries to tell anyone anything.  The point of my post was to illustrate that we need to interpret the data before use it to make any conclusions.

If you have data that shows one guy gets three blocks a game and the other guy gets one and you have data that shows one guy holds opponent fg% lower than the other that's all the data you need and it's usually pretty obvious right away. T Zeller is an ok defender. He is nowhere near elite. I would be more inclined to be interested in what other players would say. Who do you fear in the paint? Do you fear Zeller?

Your criteria for rim protection is just blocks and OFG%?

Player	bp36	OFG%
David Lee	1.7	48.4
Tyson Chandler	1.5	51.3

you can easily take numbers out of context. These are

I really don't understand why you're arguing with me then.  That's what I've been saying from the very beginning.

You've been saying from the very beginning that numbers have been taken out of context and interpreted to show that Ty Zeller is an above average defender? Ok. In that case I agree with you

I never took any position on Zeller's ability.  I've just been saying that raw data doesn't tell you anything until you interpret it.

You seem to be saying that as long as a player passes your eye test, you can pick and choose whatever data you please to support your conclusion.  (Saying blocks and OFG% is "all the data you need" about Howard and Zeller, but "taken out of context" when it's about Lee and Chandler).

If you just want to evaluate players with your eyes, that's completely fine.  I wouldn't judge anyone for doing that.  It many/most cases it works.  Just don't turn around and say that your conclusions are backed up by data that you chose selectively.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I am a Zeller fan... as our back up 5 long term.

If we don't add someone in the offseason with the potential to eventually take his starting role I will not be happy. I would be fine drafting WCS or Turner and then having Zeller start until the guy we drafted is ready.

As a free agent I think a non crazy salary option would be Asik.

Asik has no hands, no offensive ability, and is averaging the same as Zeller in OFG% at the rim (50% this year and 47% last year). He would be a step back for us. I'm all for a better rim protector, but in order for it to be worth it, they need to be significantly better as a defender and as skill offensively as Zeller.

Asik is absolutely significantly better than Zeller on defense (and rebounding).

Earlier someone made the argument that scheme matters in terms of rim protection stats. Well the C's scheme is to force ball handlers away from screens so our bigs only have to defend straight line drives and don't have to slide over in the pick and roll.

Zeller is putting up good numbers in a scheme where he is only defending drives right at him rather than having to move laterally to defend. In other words the scheme is as big friendly as possible because our bigs aren't great defending the pick and roll.

Asik protects the rim, but more importantly he can effectively play any type of pick and roll defense not just in a system that is favorable for him. Zeller's numbers in this system are not equal to Asik numbers in a system that requires him to hedge, recover then get back into the lane in time to contest a shot.

I disagree with your assessment on our scheme vs. the Pelicans scheme, but there is really no way to see who is right and who is wrong. I think our bigs are required to have good agility and to stop more than just direct drives at them. I also think Asik does not do a particularly good job at pick-and-roll defense. I think Zeller is more agile than Asik, and that he can "hedge" better than Asik. Asik is best as a weakside defender.

You are right that he is a better rebounder though.

Edit: I was wrong. Asik ranks in the 80% in pick and roll defense. Zeller is in the 44%. Sully actually ranks in the 71%.

Edit: Edit: I was wrong again. that is defense on the roll man's shots, not on pick-and-rolls in general. Still looking.

What scheme do you think the C's run. I see our guards going out of there way to force the ball away from the screener often making contact with the screener and giving the opposing pg a direct line to the hoop. I'll try to find some clips to show this.

I agree, but typically if the screen is on the wings, pick comes to open a drive to the middle. Our guards force them away from this to the baseline, and typically, it is the job of the pick defender to beat him to the rim and contest him.

Again, I will need to do some research on pick-and-roll defense stats, because right now I am not finding anything. I would be really interested in seeing how Zeller compares to Asik.

[Future Celtics Owner]

In a 7 game series against a good team Zeller would not fair as well....imo

[clover]

http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/

Nylon calculus has a lot of cool advanced stats, but their rim protection stat is really cool. They combine the player tracking opponent fg% at the rim with a percentage of the shots that a player actually contests.

Zeller rated 9th at points saved per 36 minutes, ahead of guys like Asik, Noel, and Duncan. His OFG% at the rim was good (50%), but his contest rate (56%) is fifth in the NBA, which means he is really putting forth the effort to be a rim protector.

According to this stat, Zeller slots in right between Ibaka and Robin Lopez at points saved per 36 minutes, both of whom people on this forum have said we should try to get.

I know this isn't necessarily a popular opinion, but I think we have a decent rim protector/finisher on our team already, and he is on a rookie contract. I just don't think a player like Lopez, or Sanders, or Ibaka, or Biyumbo, would provide much more value than what Zeller is giving us on a really good contract. Guys like Hibbert, Whiteside, or Gobert might be worth the extra money or draft picks to get, but that's about it.

Maybe we ought to let the third-year center continue to develop under Stevens?

Interesting--I wasn't familiar with this site.

By their calculations, Bass is terrible, Sully is bad, KO is less bad, and Zeller is decent.

I believe that.