Author Topic: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector  (Read 15242 times)

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Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #30 on: March 06, 2015, 10:22:43 AM »

Offline Eja117

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Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.
If analytics are trying to tell us that Tyler Zeller is in any way, shape, or form a better rim protector than D Howard than analytics have failed us and are a farce.
I like Zeller, but lets not get over analytical here.

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #31 on: March 06, 2015, 10:31:18 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.
No, it's not, but before people go absolutely gaga about how Tyler Zeller is a GREAT rim protector (something which absolutely doesn't pass the eye test), they have to understand that IN THIS PARTICULAR stat, he's rated highly because he contests a large amount of shots at a pretty mediocre rate and not because he's efficient in contesting shots.

I agree with you that this data alone doesn't prove that he's a great rim protector, but likewise maybe you need to be reminded that it doesn't prove that he's bad rim protector as you implied by comparing him to a volume shooter.

The opponent FG% is a pretty clear cut stat that doesn't require much interpretation to understand, but the contest % stat isn't so definitive.  If you want to claim that he's just a low efficiency "volume contester", you're going to have to convince us that his contest % is born out of something other than elite defensive instincts.  If you can't do that, what basis is there for saying that contesting a lot of shots inefficiently is worse than contesting a few very well?
I don't think that a high level of contest indicates any sort of superior defensive ability. If one contests every shot, but the opposition still makes layups at or above league-average rate, how does that make you anything but an average defender?

High contest rate may be a necessary, but decidedly not sufficient condition. Don't mistake activity for achievement.
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Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #32 on: March 06, 2015, 10:31:51 AM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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hwangjini, those are some great questions. I can't think of any ways where scheme would come through in the stats.

However, the Pacers run a very similar style of defense with Hibbert and Mahinimi inside. They "ice" the pick and rolls and beg the ball-handler to shoot the mid-range shot. If the ball-handler attacks, the rim protectors are in perfect position to contest straight up and down. Generally, the Celtics run Zeller and Olynyk the same way, whereas Bass, Crowder, Jerebko, and Sullinger will switch or hedge to give the other defender time to recover.

You are dead-on about CBS's system forcing players to the baseline and bringing a defender over to help. Sometimes, that defender is actually the weakside wing defender (typically Smart), who tries to take a charge (BTW, that is how the Heat protected the rim over the past four years with LeBron, Wade, Chalmers, and Battier). But it can also be the weakside big (the Pacers try to get Hibbert in that defensive position). Their job is to move their feet and get vertical. Olynyk did a beautiful job in one play like this last night.

The big wrinkle that I see in CBS's system is that he sometimes brings the strong-side big defender as the rim protector. In other words, if Zeller is defending his man at the 18 foot elbow extended, and Bradley is guarding the ball on the same wing, then Bradley forces the ball-handler to the baseline and it is Zeller's job to meet the ball-handler at the rim and get vertical. Obviously, only a very agile big man can get there that quickly.

Why does CBS use this wrinkle? I think the reason is because it is easier for the ball-handler to drive and kick to the opposite corner or wing than it is for the ball-handler to spin in the air and kick it back out to the big man that Zeller was guarding. This wrinkle allows the other Celtic defenders to stay on their man and guard the all-important drive-and-kick three (especially the corner). If Zeller (or Olynyk) is able to get to his helpside spot, then the ball-handler is forced into a tough finish or a difficult pass.

Schemes are designed to maximize player's strengths. In the Pacers' scheme, Hibbert basically hangs around the basket, because that is his strength. In the Celtics' scheme, Zeller ices pick-and-rolls and meets drivers at the rim. His quickness also allows him to help as a strong-side defender. That's just good coaching.

I don't think the Celtics are convinced that Zeller is a starting center yet, either. Obviously, Ainge sees a bit of a need for a rangy athlete inside. Wright was a rangy athlete who struggled with some of these defensive reactions and concepts of CBS's system. That was one of the reasons why he was traded. CBS needs intelligent players. Zeller is that. He is also young and still developing. He is also much more skilled offensively than a typical rim protector.

I think he skilled enough offensively to be a starting center. I continue to make the case that he is a good enough rim protector to be a starting center. I think the real concern is his rebounding.

Advanced stats indicate that he is only able to pull in 55% of rebounds per opportunity. That would put him in the bottom fifth of the league. There are other good bigs in that range (Thompson, Motiejunas, Gibson, Dieng, Mozgov, Ibaka, Pachulia, Ma. Plumlee), but in order to be our anchor, he needs to rebound better. Right now, the Celtics play at a slower pace because everyone is forced to help on the boards, but if our bigs were more efficient rebounders, I think the Celtics could run more, which would increase scoring efficiency and give a boost to our offense.
good stuff dwc. tp for sure. thanks for taking the time to explain the details to someone who has only the most rudimentary grasp of Xs and Os in basketball. (that means me.  ;D )

next, given seller's strengths, and rebounding "weakness", what sort of pf would suit him best as a partner? since seller does not rebound all that well so far, would a "sully" type player who can rebound be the best pairing? or, would an outside shooter, ala olly, be better suited since he would draw out defenders and maybe give zeller more room to rebound?
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Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #33 on: March 06, 2015, 10:33:51 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.
If analytics are trying to tell us that Tyler Zeller is in any way, shape, or form a better rim protector than D Howard than analytics have failed us and are a farce.
I like Zeller, but lets not get over analytical here.

You are right. They are not comparable, but I don't think that was his point. Howard has not been as elite of a rim protector since his back surgery a few years ago, and the stats back that up, but he is still better than most bigs in the NBA, including Zeller.

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #34 on: March 06, 2015, 10:36:16 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.
No, it's not, but before people go absolutely gaga about how Tyler Zeller is a GREAT rim protector (something which absolutely doesn't pass the eye test), they have to understand that IN THIS PARTICULAR stat, he's rated highly because he contests a large amount of shots at a pretty mediocre rate and not because he's efficient in contesting shots.

I agree with you that this data alone doesn't prove that he's a great rim protector, but likewise maybe you need to be reminded that it doesn't prove that he's bad rim protector as you implied by comparing him to a volume shooter.

The opponent FG% is a pretty clear cut stat that doesn't require much interpretation to understand, but the contest % stat isn't so definitive.  If you want to claim that he's just a low efficiency "volume contester", you're going to have to convince us that his contest % is born out of something other than elite defensive instincts.  If you can't do that, what basis is there for saying that contesting a lot of shots inefficiently is worse than contesting a few very well?
I don't think that a high level of contest indicates any sort of superior defensive ability. If one contests every shot, but the opposition still makes layups at or above league-average rate, how does that make you anything but an average defender?

High contest rate may be a necessary, but decidedly not sufficient condition. Don't mistake activity for achievement.

Agree. You cannot mistake activity for achievement. But hustle is a skill, and when combined with above average rim protecting numbers, Zeller ranks in the top 15 in the NBA in points saved per 48 minutes.

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #35 on: March 06, 2015, 10:42:51 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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hwangjini, those are some great questions. I can't think of any ways where scheme would come through in the stats.

However, the Pacers run a very similar style of defense with Hibbert and Mahinimi inside. They "ice" the pick and rolls and beg the ball-handler to shoot the mid-range shot. If the ball-handler attacks, the rim protectors are in perfect position to contest straight up and down. Generally, the Celtics run Zeller and Olynyk the same way, whereas Bass, Crowder, Jerebko, and Sullinger will switch or hedge to give the other defender time to recover.

You are dead-on about CBS's system forcing players to the baseline and bringing a defender over to help. Sometimes, that defender is actually the weakside wing defender (typically Smart), who tries to take a charge (BTW, that is how the Heat protected the rim over the past four years with LeBron, Wade, Chalmers, and Battier). But it can also be the weakside big (the Pacers try to get Hibbert in that defensive position). Their job is to move their feet and get vertical. Olynyk did a beautiful job in one play like this last night.

The big wrinkle that I see in CBS's system is that he sometimes brings the strong-side big defender as the rim protector. In other words, if Zeller is defending his man at the 18 foot elbow extended, and Bradley is guarding the ball on the same wing, then Bradley forces the ball-handler to the baseline and it is Zeller's job to meet the ball-handler at the rim and get vertical. Obviously, only a very agile big man can get there that quickly.

Why does CBS use this wrinkle? I think the reason is because it is easier for the ball-handler to drive and kick to the opposite corner or wing than it is for the ball-handler to spin in the air and kick it back out to the big man that Zeller was guarding. This wrinkle allows the other Celtic defenders to stay on their man and guard the all-important drive-and-kick three (especially the corner). If Zeller (or Olynyk) is able to get to his helpside spot, then the ball-handler is forced into a tough finish or a difficult pass.

Schemes are designed to maximize player's strengths. In the Pacers' scheme, Hibbert basically hangs around the basket, because that is his strength. In the Celtics' scheme, Zeller ices pick-and-rolls and meets drivers at the rim. His quickness also allows him to help as a strong-side defender. That's just good coaching.

I don't think the Celtics are convinced that Zeller is a starting center yet, either. Obviously, Ainge sees a bit of a need for a rangy athlete inside. Wright was a rangy athlete who struggled with some of these defensive reactions and concepts of CBS's system. That was one of the reasons why he was traded. CBS needs intelligent players. Zeller is that. He is also young and still developing. He is also much more skilled offensively than a typical rim protector.

I think he skilled enough offensively to be a starting center. I continue to make the case that he is a good enough rim protector to be a starting center. I think the real concern is his rebounding.

Advanced stats indicate that he is only able to pull in 55% of rebounds per opportunity. That would put him in the bottom fifth of the league. There are other good bigs in that range (Thompson, Motiejunas, Gibson, Dieng, Mozgov, Ibaka, Pachulia, Ma. Plumlee), but in order to be our anchor, he needs to rebound better. Right now, the Celtics play at a slower pace because everyone is forced to help on the boards, but if our bigs were more efficient rebounders, I think the Celtics could run more, which would increase scoring efficiency and give a boost to our offense.
good stuff dwc. tp for sure. thanks for taking the time to explain the details to someone who has only the most rudimentary grasp of Xs and Os in basketball. (that means me.  ;D )

next, given seller's strengths, and rebounding "weakness", what sort of pf would suit him best as a partner? since seller does not rebound all that well so far, would a "sully" type player who can rebound be the best pairing? or, would an outside shooter, ala olly, be better suited since he would draw out defenders and maybe give zeller more room to rebound?

I think the answer is to continue to coach and train Zeller, Olynyk, and Sullinger to be able to defend the rim, rebound, and shoot the three (comon Zeller!). They have 8 years of experience between them, the same as Bass. Generally speaking, the longer a player is in a system and the more NBA experience he has, the better his rebounding and defensive abilities. They are young. They are not the players they will be in three years, or even next year. If our bigs get patience and continuity, I think they each could improve their weaknesses.

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #36 on: March 06, 2015, 10:44:59 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Agree. You cannot mistake activity for achievement. But hustle is a skill, and when combined with above average rim protecting numbers, Zeller ranks in the top 15 in the NBA in points saved per 48 minutes.
I think his rim protecting number is pretty average (currently at 50% and sitting pretty much in the middle of the pack). So he's average at challenging shots, but hustles a lot  (55% is a top ten rate). I guess that's better than an average "shot challenger" that doesn't hustle a lot, but still not much to write home about.

I like Zeller. He just won't be confused for any sort of defensive force in the paint right now.
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Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #37 on: March 06, 2015, 10:58:03 AM »

Offline e4e5sesame

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Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.
No, it's not, but before people go absolutely gaga about how Tyler Zeller is a GREAT rim protector (something which absolutely doesn't pass the eye test), they have to understand that IN THIS PARTICULAR stat, he's rated highly because he contests a large amount of shots at a pretty mediocre rate and not because he's efficient in contesting shots.

I agree with you that this data alone doesn't prove that he's a great rim protector, but likewise maybe you need to be reminded that it doesn't prove that he's bad rim protector as you implied by comparing him to a volume shooter.

The opponent FG% is a pretty clear cut stat that doesn't require much interpretation to understand, but the contest % stat isn't so definitive.  If you want to claim that he's just a low efficiency "volume contester", you're going to have to convince us that his contest % is born out of something other than elite defensive instincts.  If you can't do that, what basis is there for saying that contesting a lot of shots inefficiently is worse than contesting a few very well?
I don't think that a high level of contest indicates any sort of superior defensive ability. If one contests every shot, but the opposition still makes layups at or above league-average rate, how does that make you anything but an average defender?

High contest rate may be a necessary, but decidedly not sufficient condition. Don't mistake activity for achievement.

I think you're moving the posts here.  I never said (and I don't think anyone else in this thread did, for that matter) that contest rate alone makes for a good rim protector.  The point of the data is that it takes the product of contest rate and OFG.  So, as you say, it doesn't matter how many shots you contest if you are completely ineffectual at altering them.  But I'm pointing out to you that, likewise, it doesn't matter how effective you are at altering shots if you don't actually try to alter any shots.  Obviously, those are two extremes and there is plenty in between.

Now, I haven't tried to use the data to pass any kind of judgement, good or bad, on Zeller.  I'm just focusing on one statistic (contest rate) that causes Zeller to be ranked highly here and imploring others to explain why this should be ignored.  And you do need to explain why it should be ignored, because on face value, total production equals efficiency times volume, and that's simply a mathematical identity.

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #38 on: March 06, 2015, 11:02:01 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Agree. You cannot mistake activity for achievement. But hustle is a skill, and when combined with above average rim protecting numbers, Zeller ranks in the top 15 in the NBA in points saved per 48 minutes.
I think his rim protecting number is pretty average (currently at 50% and sitting pretty much in the middle of the pack). So he's average at challenging shots, but hustles a lot  (55% is a top ten rate). I guess that's better than an average "shot challenger" that doesn't hustle a lot, but still not much to write home about.

I like Zeller. He just won't be confused for any sort of defensive force in the paint right now.

Think about it like this: Player A contests 10 shots at the rim a game, holding drivers to only 4 makes with 2 BPG. However, Player A is sometimes nearby but fails to contest 5 more shots a game-all makes. His OFG% at the rim would be 40%, but the scheme dictates that he should have protected the rim five more times and failed to do so. In other words, in reality, he is allowing 9/15 drives to score, or about 60%.

Player B contests 13 shots at the rim a game, holding drivers to 6 makes with 1 BPG. Player B is sometimes nearby but fails to contest 2 more shots a game-both makes. His OFG% at the rim would be 46%, but the scheme dictates that he should have protected the rim two more times and failed to do so. In other words, in reality, he is allowing 8/15 drives to score, or about 53%

Activity does not mean everything if Player B fails to prevent the shot from going in, but Player A's BPG and OFG% can look better than Player B's simply because it is difficult to quantify a lack of effort.

I would always choose an average player with good hustle over a good player with average hustle. You can coach skills. You can't coach heart.

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #39 on: March 06, 2015, 11:02:24 AM »

Offline Cman

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I like Zeller. He just won't be confused for any sort of defensive force in the paint right now.

Agreed. Zeller, like most of the current roster, is an *excellent* off the bench guy. Our problem is that we don't have enough starting caliber (All Star nod) type players.
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Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #40 on: March 06, 2015, 11:04:05 AM »

Offline e4e5sesame

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Did you actually understand how the stat is calculated?

It's a function of the percentage shot at rim by player opponents and the percentage of shots contested. Zeller gives up a relatively high percentage at rim, but contest a lot of shots, hence the high amount of points prevented. That's the equivalent of a volume shooter and not exactly a glowing endorsement of his defenaive prowess.

It's nowhere near that simple.

This is one instance where statistics fall a little bit short of giving you the full picture.  What you need to decide for yourself, after looking at the data, is whether his high contest % is a product of the system that he's playing in or if it's because he reads the play well, uses his feet to get to the right spots, doesn't bite on pump fakes, etc.

For example, Serge Ibaka's ranking is seriously deflated here, because he's a PF.  A lot of the time he's not in a position to contest a shot, because the system has him guarding a stretch four on the perimeter.  But if you put him in at center and ask him to just patrol the paint for 24 seconds, his contest % would probably rise to around the 50% mark without much loss of efficiency, which would put him in the top 5.

On the other hand, a guy like Dwight Howard lives in the paint and yet he's still only contesting 42.1% of possible shots at the rim, according to this data.  This is very interesting, and may go some way towards challenging the widespread belief that he's an elite rim protector.  Sure, he's effective when he contests a shot, but what good is that if he's not getting himself in the right places to contest the shot in the first place.

I'm not an expert on big man defensive positioning, so hopefully someone else can do an analysis of why Zeller's contest % is so high.  Maybe then we can decide if this data means he's an elite rim protector or just an average one.
If analytics are trying to tell us that Tyler Zeller is in any way, shape, or form a better rim protector than D Howard than analytics have failed us and are a farce.
I like Zeller, but lets not get over analytical here.

Data never tries to tell anyone anything.  The point of my post was to illustrate that we need to interpret the data before use it to make any conclusions.

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #41 on: March 06, 2015, 11:10:31 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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I am a Zeller fan... as our back up 5 long term.

If we don't add someone in the offseason with the potential to eventually take his starting role I will not be happy. I would be fine drafting WCS or Turner and then having Zeller start until the guy we drafted is ready.

As a free agent I think a non crazy salary option would be Asik.
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Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #42 on: March 06, 2015, 11:13:43 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Agree. You cannot mistake activity for achievement. But hustle is a skill, and when combined with above average rim protecting numbers, Zeller ranks in the top 15 in the NBA in points saved per 48 minutes.
I think his rim protecting number is pretty average (currently at 50% and sitting pretty much in the middle of the pack). So he's average at challenging shots, but hustles a lot  (55% is a top ten rate). I guess that's better than an average "shot challenger" that doesn't hustle a lot, but still not much to write home about.

I like Zeller. He just won't be confused for any sort of defensive force in the paint right now.

Think about it like this: Player A contests 10 shots at the rim a game, holding drivers to only 4 makes with 2 BPG. However, Player A is sometimes nearby but fails to contest 5 more shots a game-all makes. His OFG% at the rim would be 40%, but the scheme dictates that he should have protected the rim five more times and failed to do so. In other words, in reality, he is allowing 9/15 drives to score, or about 60%.

Player B contests 13 shots at the rim a game, holding drivers to 6 makes with 1 BPG. Player B is sometimes nearby but fails to contest 2 more shots a game-both makes. His OFG% at the rim would be 46%, but the scheme dictates that he should have protected the rim two more times and failed to do so. In other words, in reality, he is allowing 8/15 drives to score, or about 53%

Activity does not mean everything if Player B fails to prevent the shot from going in, but Player A's BPG and OFG% can look better than Player B's simply because it is difficult to quantify a lack of effort.

I would always choose an average player with good hustle over a good player with average hustle. You can coach skills. You can't coach heart.
There's an awful lot of assumptions in this narrative, the most egregious being the one that when you don't challenge a shot, you're ALWAYS in the area and ALWAYS supposed to be challenging it (as well as that it's ALWAYS scored).

Let's just look at Dwight Howard's contest rate for a second -- starting with the fact that BECAUSE he is a well-established rim protector, teams can and will actively scheme to keep him away from the paint on high picks. This may effectively lower the rate, even though there's really little to do about it if you're the player. On the other hand, if you look at Zeller, you don't exactly think, "Oh, gotta win the game by keeping Zeller out of the paint".
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #43 on: March 06, 2015, 11:16:13 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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The best example of teams are eager to attack some players rather than others I think of Kris Humphries.

The smallest PGs in the league had/have no fear about taking it straight at him in the lane.

Re: Tyler Zeller Rated Highly as Rim Protector
« Reply #44 on: March 06, 2015, 11:17:53 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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I am a Zeller fan... as our back up 5 long term.

If we don't add someone in the offseason with the potential to eventually take his starting role I will not be happy. I would be fine drafting WCS or Turner and then having Zeller start until the guy we drafted is ready.

As a free agent I think a non crazy salary option would be Asik.

Asik has no hands, no offensive ability, and is averaging the same as Zeller in OFG% at the rim (50% this year and 47% last year). He would be a step back for us. I'm all for a better rim protector, but in order for it to be worth it, they need to be significantly better as a defender and as skill offensively as Zeller.