The Huge Drop Off in Talent from Tier to Tier in the 2015 Draft

[TwinTower14]

Sadly, I am preparing for two of the level three guys.  We never tank fully and we rarely have a top three pick.

With the trade deadline past and the new of Bosh's injury I expect an ugly battle for the 7th and 8th seeds. I expect the bucks to take a step back after the knight trade but still hold onto the 6th seed. After that the Hornets, Heat, Nets, Pistons, Pacers and Celtics should all be in the running for the last two spots. The NYK, 76ers and Magic are locks for the bottom 3. Ultimately I think the Cs finish with the 5th worst record in the east and ahead of LAL, Minn and Utah in the west. Giving them the 8th pick.

I don't think this is a total draft loss. The 8th pick will give the Cs their choice of two prospects in the 3rd tier. My guess would be Hezonja will be available then either Turner (if not red flagged for injury concerns) or WCS. I am not sold on Turner because his awkwardness running the court scream injury concerns but his skill set / length is very intriguing. WCS will obviously give the Cs a defensive anchor down the road. Hezonja could be a steal as he is showing in the ACB to be an elite scoring prospect. Outside of Okafor, Russell and Mudiay I would say Hezonja is the most likely prospect to average over 20ppg in an NBA season.   

I am not as high on Okafor as everyone else.  Don't get me wrong he is going to score in the NBA but on defense he is TERRIBLE!  Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks and Isiah Hicks had there way with him ( not exactly lottery talent ) . They combined for 48 pts and shot a combined 20/29.  I know it's not all on him but he was bad.  He will get destroyed on defense if he doesn't improve a lot.  I think Russell is the best player in this draft...

[celticsclay]

I dont mean to be a downer on this, and I appreciate the effort the original poster put into this, but saying there are clearly 12 players and putting them in tiers at this point is a bit ridiculous in my opinion. I would bet just about anything that a player not on your current top 12 will go in the top 12. Between now and the draft players will rise and fall based on injuries, how they play in the conference and NCAA tournament (there is at least once player every year that really helps themselves in these) and measurements at the combine (not to mention interviews with teams).

On top of that there will be players that surprisingly stay in school and perhaps international players that will or will not become eligible. I think the Celtics just made their most significant veteran addition since we still had the big 3 and it is pretty exciting to see how the players fight and finish for the rest of the year.  Trying to predict the Celtics place of finish and what player will be there seems premature. Is anyone else pumped about a winnable game tonight?

[Quetzalcoatl]

Yeah I mean if we somehow miraculously got Okafor I wouldn't complain, but if we drafted 3rd and got Russell, Mudiay or Johnson I'd be equally happy (if not more so). 

I'd say we could try what New Orleans is doing with Davis and play Okafor essentially as a PF and have a defensive big man next to him, but that isn't working out so hot for them and Okafor is no Davis.  Sully / Okafor would be a lay up line, I cringe thinking about watching them trying to make a crucial stop in the playoffs together. 

If we could get Embiid or Noel from the 6ers without giving up Smart or Okafor in that scenario though, it might work.  Sully + a Nets pick + our 2016 pick or something like that.  Ok nevermind I'm hallucinating, this will never happen

[Jonny CC]

Isn't the draft a total crapshoot after the top 2 or 3 every year??  There aren't too many superstars in any draft and there are as many misses as hits in the first round. 

[CFAN38]

Yeah I mean if we somehow miraculously got Okafor I wouldn't complain, but if we drafted 3rd and got Russell, Mudiay or Johnson I'd be equally happy (if not more so). 

I'd say we could try what New Orleans is doing with Davis and play Okafor essentially as a PF and have a defensive big man next to him, but that isn't working out so hot for them and Okafor is no Davis.  Sully / Okafor would be a lay up line, I cringe thinking about watching them trying to make a crucial stop in the playoffs together. 

If we could get Embiid or Noel from the 6ers without giving up Smart or Okafor in that scenario though, it might work.  Sully + a Nets pick + our 2016 pick or something like that.  Ok nevermind I'm hallucinating, this will never happen

You lost me with playing Okafor as a PF? I agree his defensive limitations will warrent playing a long defensive 4 next to him. The same can be said for Cousins and Big AL. Players like Ibaka and Gibson who can protect the rim at the PF are ideal with those types of bigs. Also A Davis is a PF not a center if anything NO has messed up by playing him with a defensive center where an offesive center maybe a better fit.

[jonaslopes]

Yeah I mean if we somehow miraculously got Okafor I wouldn't complain, but if we drafted 3rd and got Russell, Mudiay or Johnson I'd be equally happy (if not more so). 

If we're talking about miracles, I'd rather have Towns. I'm afraid of Okafor's defense. Towns is raw next to Jahlil, but has a higher ceiling in my opinion.

[Evantime34]

At this point I've given up on any of those guys. If we are able to get WCS and a wing prospect in the draft I will be happy.

[footey]

Averaging Mock Drafts to come up with an ultimate value is a noble, but failed enterprise.

Some of the Mocks are really bad, or old, or both.  They just weaken the value of the good ones.

I have followed them for enough years to say that ESPN and DE tend to be the most accurate.  That being said, how on earth could you drop Porzingis to tier 3? 

[Mr October]

Devon booker is getting consideration at the bottom of the lottery

Yeah I have Booker ranked 13 right now. I think there are some potential rough diamonds to be found throughout the first round. Prior to the Thomas trade, I was focused on Jones out of Duke with the Clipper pick. Now I think they'll land one of the many bigs like Upshaw, Johnson, Lyles, etc

[Quetzalcoatl]

Yeah I mean if we somehow miraculously got Okafor I wouldn't complain, but if we drafted 3rd and got Russell, Mudiay or Johnson I'd be equally happy (if not more so). 

I'd say we could try what New Orleans is doing with Davis and play Okafor essentially as a PF and have a defensive big man next to him, but that isn't working out so hot for them and Okafor is no Davis.  Sully / Okafor would be a lay up line, I cringe thinking about watching them trying to make a crucial stop in the playoffs together. 

If we could get Embiid or Noel from the 6ers without giving up Smart or Okafor in that scenario though, it might work.  Sully + a Nets pick + our 2016 pick or something like that.  Ok nevermind I'm hallucinating, this will never happen

You lost me with playing Okafor as a PF? I agree his defensive limitations will warrent playing a long defensive 4 next to him. The same can be said for Cousins and Big AL. Players like Ibaka and Gibson who can protect the rim at the PF are ideal with those types of bigs. Also A Davis is a PF not a center if anything NO has messed up by playing him with a defensive center where an offesive center maybe a better fit.

Yeah not my best work