The Huge Drop Off in Talent from Tier to Tier in the 2015 Draft

[Ilikesports17]

I have been looking at the upcoming draft and there seems to be a clear drop off after the top 12. I looked at 5 mock drafts, written in the past 15 days and I found a clear set of tiers dividing the prospects:

Name:   adp in 5 mocks/big boards;   range

1st:
1-Okafor:   1.0;   1-1

2nd:
2-Mudiay:   2.6;   2-4
3-Towns:   4.0;   2-5
4-Russell:   4.2;   2-9
5-Johnson:   4.6;   3-7

3rd:
6-Turner:   6.4;   4-10
7-Cauley-Stein:   9.0;   7-13
8-Hezonja:   9.0;   6-15
9-Looney:   9.0;   6-11
10-Porzingis:   9.8;   8-14
11-Oubre:   11.0;   9-13
12-Winslow:   11.4;   8-16

4th:(only players inside top 12 in at least 1 bigboard/mock)
13-Harrell:   14.2;   10-20
14-Portis:   15.6;   12-20
15-Lyles:   18.6;   9-30
16-Dekker:   21.2;   12-26

Now inside the top 12 there is a lot of fluidity. Everyone will have their favorites and the ones they really dont like for me, I like Oubre and Johnson, but Dont like Turner or the Europeans at all. Putting all that aside there is a huge dropoff after this top 12.

This for me is the only thing that gives me trepidation about a playoff push. For the record, I am in favor of making a run at the 8 seed. I think the experience would be great and Sully, KO, Smart, Young, and Bradley would all have great opportunity to grow and establish themselves as big time players. It would also be good for CBS as well as the overall momentum of the Celtics organization (I think this is actually somewhat important).

However, this could mean missing out on some good prospects. I think it may be best for the team to make a hard push and wind up 9th in the East. This would still provide high intensity minutes for Smart, Young, Sully, etc while still giving us the opportunity to probably grab whoever Danny likes that third tier as out assets (late 1s and all those [dang] 2s) would let us move up from 12 to 8-11 if someone is available.

In closing: I hope we push for the playoffs and I would be really excited if we made it but if we just miss then that might be just fine too. Does anyone have any thoughts on the quirky nature of this draft? Any favorites or least favorites? I just thought the draft had an interesting dynamic that I thought I'd share.

[celticmania]

I wouldn't mind anyone in the top 2 tiers... Its actually a pretty solid draft but Okafor doesn't  have the upside of most number one picks. The 2-14 picks can be better than most drafts as far as talent in this range. Outside of the lottery range is average

So:
Number 1 - below average
Pick 2 to 14- good
Outside lottery- average

[Msimonetta2]

TP, thanks for this breakdown really helpful for me looking at tiers.  Who knows how the rest of the year will play out but I'd guess we will end up in tier 3, let's say 9-12.  Man, Danny has to hit on this one....Oubre seems to have a higher ceiling, Winslow maybe more of a three and d guy?  Maybe we can trade up for WCS...

[Csfan1984]

I would probably combine 1 and 2 tiers. Okafor has not distanced himself to be a separate tier. The 6-12 guys all have great potential. Imo a lotto pick even in 6-12 range would help this club more than a 1st round exit.

[BornReady]

I disagree I think we would be giving up too much just to move up a couple of spots in the draft
When we could potentially win the lottery or at least get a top 10 pick

It wouldn't make sense to try get the 8th seed at this point

Also it would be disappointing for us to try make the playoffs only to miss by one game and end up having the worst odds to win the lottery

I agree with your top 2 tiers but disagree with the 3rd and 4th tier.
I have Porzingis is in the top 2 tier and have Winslow and Cayley stein in the 4th tier

Also no Devon booker

[BornReady]

Devon booker is getting consideration at the bottom of the lottery

[mahcus smaht]

We are not in the running for Stanley Johnson or Okafor or Towns so I think it is best to make a playoff push. If we wind up 9th in the East, that would put us at 12, as you said, then we just have to use a little bit of the ammunition we have built up(say a 2nd or two could do the trick) to move up a pick or two to grab the big man/ wing we like. (WCS, Turner, Winslow, and Oubre come to mind)

If we grab the 8 seed than we just have to use more amo. I think that the Clips pick and our pick (say they end up as 22 and 15) and a 2nd round pick could vault us up into the 8-12 range. I am basing that idea off of Chicago's trade last year moving 16 and 19 for 11.

[Emmette Bryant]

We are not in the running for Stanley Johnson or Okafor or Towns so I think it is best to make a playoff push. If we wind up 9th in the East, that would put us at 12, as you said, then we just have to use a little bit of the ammunition we have built up(say a 2nd or two could do the trick) to move up a pick or two to grab the big man/ wing we like. (WCS, Turner, Winslow, and Oubre come to mind)

If we grab the 8 seed than we just have to use more amo. I think that the Clips pick and our pick (say they end up as 22 and 15) and a 2nd round pick could vault us up into the 8-12 range. I am basing that idea off of Chicago's trade last year moving 16 and 19 for 11.

I agwee with my vewy gweat fwiend mahcus smaht.

[Ilikesports17]

I would probably combine 1 and 2 tiers. Okafor has not distanced himself to be a separate tier. The 6-12 guys all have great potential. Imo a lotto pick even in 6-12 range would help this club more than a 1st round exit.

I agree that the talent gap between tiers 1 and 2 is basically nonexistant, but I made a seperate tier because Okafor is #1 EVERWHERE and no one else is ranked that consistently high, so I figured all the draft experts out there know something I dont so I gave him his own category. That being said is he in a league of his own as my tier system suggests? No, I think you are on pint there.

I also agree on the stance that if we are in that 6-12 range we could have a star if not, we probably wont. Its just so [dang] hard to root for the C's to lose! I cant do it! Thats why I sorta compromised with the hard push that just comes up a bit short idea. because it gets both high intensity experience and a lotto pick.

I disagree I think we would be giving up too much just to move up a couple of spots in the draft
When we could potentially win the lottery or at least get a top 10 pick

It wouldn't make sense to try get the 8th seed at this point

Also it would be disappointing for us to try make the playoffs only to miss by one game and end up having the worst odds to win the lottery

I agree with your top 2 tiers but disagree with the 3rd and 4th tier.
I have Porzingis is in the top 2 tier and have Winslow and Cayley stein in the 4th tier

Also no Devon booker

Booker is probably better than most of the guys in my 4th tier I just havent seen him in the top 12 yet and it was getting annoying figuring out these ADP's. Also I dont know enough about him to feel strongly one way or another.

Also, I see where you are going with the bit about porzingis and Winslow etc. and Im glad you wrote that. I think the top 5 is fairly consistent and so is  post lottery group. It is tier 3 where its just personal preference. I think you could make the argument that nearly all of them could be all stars and you could also argue they are doomed to be busts! As C's fans we just have to hope that the guy Danny likes falls to us (wherever we pick) and that he turns out to be [dang] good.

[GreenShooter]

Booker can flat out shoot and score. I have no problem with getting him if we slide out of the top 8 picks. Book'er Danno!

[vjcsmoke]

My favorite non-big in this draft is Stanley Johnson.  I feel he can be a starting SF for us who also has the strength to bang with power forwards.  This guy has been a leader and winner at all levels.  I would love to see him playing with Marcus Smart.  That would be something special.

[CFAN38]

I have been looking at the upcoming draft and there seems to be a clear drop off after the top 12. I looked at 5 mock drafts, written in the past 15 days and I found a clear set of tiers dividing the prospects:

Name:   adp in 5 mocks/big boards;   range

1st:
1-Okafor:   1.0;   1-1

2nd:
2-Mudiay:   2.6;   2-4
3-Towns:   4.0;   2-5
4-Russell:   4.2;   2-9
5-Johnson:   4.6;   3-7

3rd:
6-Turner:   6.4;   4-10
7-Cauley-Stein:   9.0;   7-13
8-Hezonja:   9.0;   6-15
9-Looney:   9.0;   6-11
10-Porzingis:   9.8;   8-14
11-Oubre:   11.0;   9-13
12-Winslow:   11.4;   8-16

4th:(only players inside top 12 in at least 1 bigboard/mock)
13-Harrell:   14.2;   10-20
14-Portis:   15.6;   12-20
15-Lyles:   18.6;   9-30
16-Dekker:   21.2;   12-26

Nice research,

I actually think that Tier 1-4 will shake out a little different based on what I have read. Particular from Chad Ford that a number of teams place Prozingis as a top 5 prospect.

Tier 1 Okafor

Tier 2
Mudiay
Towns
Russell

Tier 3
Johnson
Prozingis
WCS
Turner
Hezonja

Tier 4
Looney
Winslow
Oubre
Harrell

[Celtics4ever]

Sadly, I am preparing for two of the level three guys.  We never tank fully and we rarely have a top three pick.

[CFAN38]

Sadly, I am preparing for two of the level three guys.  We never tank fully and we rarely have a top three pick.

With the trade deadline past and the new of Bosh's injury I expect an ugly battle for the 7th and 8th seeds. I expect the bucks to take a step back after the knight trade but still hold onto the 6th seed. After that the Hornets, Heat, Nets, Pistons, Pacers and Celtics should all be in the running for the last two spots. The NYK, 76ers and Magic are locks for the bottom 3. Ultimately I think the Cs finish with the 5th worst record in the east and ahead of LAL, Minn and Utah in the west. Giving them the 8th pick.

I don't think this is a total draft loss. The 8th pick will give the Cs their choice of two prospects in the 3rd tier. My guess would be Hezonja will be available then either Turner (if not red flagged for injury concerns) or WCS. I am not sold on Turner because his awkwardness running the court scream injury concerns but his skill set / length is very intriguing. WCS will obviously give the Cs a defensive anchor down the road. Hezonja could be a steal as he is showing in the ACB to be an elite scoring prospect. Outside of Okafor, Russell and Mudiay I would say Hezonja is the most likely prospect to average over 20ppg in an NBA season.   

[Quetzalcoatl]

As long as we get one of the top 12 that isn't Kevon Looney I'm happy.  No more PFs under 6'10" please for the love of god.

So any of these are fine: Okafor, Russell, Mudiay, Towns, Johnson, Hezonja, Porzingis, WCS, Myles Turner, Oubre or Winslow.  I will be happy with literally any of those.

If we make the playoffs, we're going to draft someone like Frank Kaminsky, Montrezel Harrell or another player that won't work in the pros.  We'll also be eliminated in the first round.  I really don't get the point.  People need to learn how to delay gratification.