I am excited about the clippers falling in the standings. The celtics should get the 20th pick from them.
However I did the math, and unless we see 2 miracle runs from the Suns, Hornets, Thunder, there is no way the Clippers are going to fall out of the playoffs.
Let's say Griffin is out a month, I expect them to go 4-7 in his absence. The schedule is rough for them. But then the schedule softens a ton, and they should get back to .600 ball.
I think the clips still win 50 games. The other mentioned teams would have to go between .700 and .750 the rest of the season in order to have a shot at catching 50 wins.
Suppose they do go 4-7 over the four weeks Griffin is out, and that they do go 11-8 over the rest of the season (approximately that .600 ball you're talking about) -- that's 15-15 over the final 30 games, which would give them a 48-34 record. Below are the records and winning percentages the 8-10 teams would need to equal a 48-34 record (I don't remember how tiebreakers work to know if 49 wins is the target they should have):
Phoenix -- 19-11, .633 winning pct (currently .558)
New Orleans -- 21-10, .677 winning pct (currently .529)
Oklahoma City --22-9, .710 winning pct (currently .510)
It's certainly unlikely, but it's not ridiculous to think it could happen either. Phoenix is on a 46-win pace currently -- getting to 48 isn't out of the question at all. New Orleans would probably have to play at a different level than they've been at all year to get there. So too would OKC, obviously, but they definitely have the capacity to play championship level basketball for the rest of the season.
Also, this assumes that Griffin does come back after 4 weeks and is playing at Blake Griffin levels pretty much the day he returns. If he is out longer and/or is not at full strength when he returns, 48 wins on the year might be pushing it. And it's much less of a stretch to think that two of those teams could get to 46 wins, for example, rather than 48. I still wouldn't bet on it at even odds, but at the same point it makes sense to start considering odds now.
.600 wasn't meant to be a literal number. A healthy clippers team finishing on a soft-ish schedule should win at least 2/3 of their games when Blake comes back in a month.
I predict a 50 win season for the Clippers.
Trust me, I hope they fall into the lottery too. The odds are against it, baring more injuries though.
Their schedule is soft, but not that soft. Road games at OKC, Dallas, portland, and Phoenix. Golden State. They pretty much have to win every other game to get your 2/3 winning record... It's just hard to do, and the Clips havent been a .667 winning pct team all year. If Griffin misses only for weeks, I'd be surprised if they get to 50. If he misses any more than that, which is very, very possible, no chance at all.
I still agree that the odds are against that the Clips fade into the lottery, but 50 games feels pretty hard to reach unless Blake comes back in two weeks instead of four. And as 9th place is probably somewhere between 45 and 47 wins, it could get interesting.