Author Topic: Clippers Collapse  (Read 21516 times)

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Re: Clippers Collapse
« Reply #45 on: February 08, 2015, 08:00:14 PM »

Offline mef730

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I am excited about the clippers falling in the standings. The celtics should get the 20th pick from them.

However I did the math, and unless we see 2 miracle runs from the Suns, Hornets, Thunder, there is no way the Clippers are going to fall out of the playoffs.

Let's say Griffin is out a month, I expect them to go 4-7 in his absence. The schedule is rough for them. But then the schedule softens a ton, and they should get back to .600 ball.

I think the clips still win 50 games. The other mentioned teams would have to go between .700 and .750 the rest of the season in order to have a shot at catching 50 wins.

Suppose they do go 4-7 over the four weeks Griffin is out, and that they do go 11-8 over the rest of the season (approximately that .600 ball you're talking about) -- that's 15-15 over the final 30 games, which would give them a 48-34 record.  Below are the records and winning percentages the 8-10 teams would need to equal a 48-34 record (I don't remember how tiebreakers work to know if 49 wins is the target they should have):

Phoenix -- 19-11, .633 winning pct (currently .558)
New Orleans -- 21-10, .677 winning pct (currently .529)
Oklahoma City --22-9, .710 winning pct (currently .510)

It's certainly unlikely, but it's not ridiculous to think it could happen either.  Phoenix is on a 46-win pace currently -- getting to 48 isn't out of the question at all.  New Orleans would probably have to play at a different level than they've been at all year to get there.  So too would OKC, obviously, but they definitely have the capacity to play championship level basketball for the rest of the season.

Also, this assumes that Griffin does come back after 4 weeks and is playing at Blake Griffin levels pretty much the day he returns.  If he is out longer and/or is not at full strength when he returns, 48 wins on the year might be pushing it.  And it's much less of a stretch to think that two of those teams could get to 46 wins, for example, rather than 48.  I still wouldn't bet on it at even odds, but at the same point it makes sense to start considering odds now.

And a +1 for some realistic math.  OKC could actually do it, I'm not so sure about the other two.  But your point is a good one.  In order for us to end up with a lottery pick, we need them to perform even worse than a strength of schedule calendar says they would.  Unfortunately, I don't think we can count on Phoenix to pick up the slack.

Mike

Re: Clippers Collapse
« Reply #46 on: February 08, 2015, 08:05:33 PM »

Offline Ogaju

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Doc Rivers will probably have to learn how to coach in a hurry.

Re: Clippers Collapse
« Reply #47 on: February 08, 2015, 08:54:52 PM »

Offline byennie

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I think OKC going on a tear is the best best. With Westbrook and Durant playing, they've been a .700 team the last two years.

LAC have a good chance of losing their next 2 at Dallas and Houston. If that happens, we could be running up against the All-Star break where they have 4.5 games on OKC.

Say OKC goes 21-9 over the final 30.
LAC goes 16-14.

That's about what it would take in the optimistic world...

Re: Clippers Collapse
« Reply #48 on: February 08, 2015, 11:14:32 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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However I did the math, and unless we see 2 miracle runs from the Suns, Hornets, Thunder, there is no way the Clippers are going to fall out of the playoffs.

There's always a chance that Deandre Jordan tears his ACL.
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Re: Clippers Collapse
« Reply #49 on: February 08, 2015, 11:58:55 PM »

Offline Mr October

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However I did the math, and unless we see 2 miracle runs from the Suns, Hornets, Thunder, there is no way the Clippers are going to fall out of the playoffs.

There's always a chance that Deandre Jordan tears his ACL.

Yup. Griffin's injury going 6 weeks MINIMUM, or another key player getting a big time injury are what it should take for the Clippers to fall below 50 wins.

Re: Clippers Collapse
« Reply #50 on: February 09, 2015, 12:01:51 AM »

Offline Mr October

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I am excited about the clippers falling in the standings. The celtics should get the 20th pick from them.

However I did the math, and unless we see 2 miracle runs from the Suns, Hornets, Thunder, there is no way the Clippers are going to fall out of the playoffs.

Let's say Griffin is out a month, I expect them to go 4-7 in his absence. The schedule is rough for them. But then the schedule softens a ton, and they should get back to .600 ball.

I think the clips still win 50 games. The other mentioned teams would have to go between .700 and .750 the rest of the season in order to have a shot at catching 50 wins.

Suppose they do go 4-7 over the four weeks Griffin is out, and that they do go 11-8 over the rest of the season (approximately that .600 ball you're talking about) -- that's 15-15 over the final 30 games, which would give them a 48-34 record.  Below are the records and winning percentages the 8-10 teams would need to equal a 48-34 record (I don't remember how tiebreakers work to know if 49 wins is the target they should have):

Phoenix -- 19-11, .633 winning pct (currently .558)
New Orleans -- 21-10, .677 winning pct (currently .529)
Oklahoma City --22-9, .710 winning pct (currently .510)

It's certainly unlikely, but it's not ridiculous to think it could happen either.  Phoenix is on a 46-win pace currently -- getting to 48 isn't out of the question at all.  New Orleans would probably have to play at a different level than they've been at all year to get there.  So too would OKC, obviously, but they definitely have the capacity to play championship level basketball for the rest of the season.

Also, this assumes that Griffin does come back after 4 weeks and is playing at Blake Griffin levels pretty much the day he returns.  If he is out longer and/or is not at full strength when he returns, 48 wins on the year might be pushing it.  And it's much less of a stretch to think that two of those teams could get to 46 wins, for example, rather than 48.  I still wouldn't bet on it at even odds, but at the same point it makes sense to start considering odds now.

.600 wasn't meant to be a literal number. A healthy clippers team finishing on a soft-ish schedule should win at least 2/3 of their games when Blake comes back in a month.

I predict a 50 win season for the Clippers.

Trust me, I hope they fall into the lottery too. The odds are against it, baring more injuries though.

Re: Clippers Collapse
« Reply #51 on: February 09, 2015, 12:27:13 AM »

Offline loco_91

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The Clippers are in serious trouble.  They have very little room available under the hard cap.  Their only expiring of greater than a minimum salary is DeAndre Jordan, whom they really can't trade right now.  They can't trade a first until 2019, and can't trade an unprotected 2nd until that time either.  They've been getting nothing from the small forward, in large part because Griffin can carry the frontcourt scoring load.  Now he's gone, they still have that hole at small forward, and Redick is out too.  Their trade assets amount to Matt Barnes' partially guaranteed contract, rookie CJ Wilcox, and picks 5 or so drafts out. 

Right now their healthy roster is Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, and a bunch of players who probably wouldn't start for the Celtics (although Crawford would get starter minutes, I admit.)  Given their upcoming schedule, things really can go south in a hurry for them.  If Griffin misses 6 weeks, and the Clips are still in the top 8 when he returns, Doc will have earned the draft pick they gave up to get him.

Indeed. They have a brutal rest of the month, featuring one Western playoff team after the next, including the Spurs, Grizz twice and the Rockets twice. After four consecutive losses already, there is a non-trivial chance they finish the month 0-9, which could derail their season. They could also respond well to the adversity - don't count out Doc - and limp through at 3-6, a less desperate state of affairs.

Re: Clippers Collapse
« Reply #52 on: February 09, 2015, 12:59:02 AM »

Offline saltlover

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I am excited about the clippers falling in the standings. The celtics should get the 20th pick from them.

However I did the math, and unless we see 2 miracle runs from the Suns, Hornets, Thunder, there is no way the Clippers are going to fall out of the playoffs.

Let's say Griffin is out a month, I expect them to go 4-7 in his absence. The schedule is rough for them. But then the schedule softens a ton, and they should get back to .600 ball.

I think the clips still win 50 games. The other mentioned teams would have to go between .700 and .750 the rest of the season in order to have a shot at catching 50 wins.

Suppose they do go 4-7 over the four weeks Griffin is out, and that they do go 11-8 over the rest of the season (approximately that .600 ball you're talking about) -- that's 15-15 over the final 30 games, which would give them a 48-34 record.  Below are the records and winning percentages the 8-10 teams would need to equal a 48-34 record (I don't remember how tiebreakers work to know if 49 wins is the target they should have):

Phoenix -- 19-11, .633 winning pct (currently .558)
New Orleans -- 21-10, .677 winning pct (currently .529)
Oklahoma City --22-9, .710 winning pct (currently .510)

It's certainly unlikely, but it's not ridiculous to think it could happen either.  Phoenix is on a 46-win pace currently -- getting to 48 isn't out of the question at all.  New Orleans would probably have to play at a different level than they've been at all year to get there.  So too would OKC, obviously, but they definitely have the capacity to play championship level basketball for the rest of the season.

Also, this assumes that Griffin does come back after 4 weeks and is playing at Blake Griffin levels pretty much the day he returns.  If he is out longer and/or is not at full strength when he returns, 48 wins on the year might be pushing it.  And it's much less of a stretch to think that two of those teams could get to 46 wins, for example, rather than 48.  I still wouldn't bet on it at even odds, but at the same point it makes sense to start considering odds now.

.600 wasn't meant to be a literal number. A healthy clippers team finishing on a soft-ish schedule should win at least 2/3 of their games when Blake comes back in a month.

I predict a 50 win season for the Clippers.

Trust me, I hope they fall into the lottery too. The odds are against it, baring more injuries though.

Their schedule is soft, but not that soft.  Road games at OKC, Dallas, portland, and Phoenix.  Golden State.  They pretty much have to win every other game to get your 2/3 winning record... It's just hard to do, and the Clips havent been a .667 winning pct team all year.  If Griffin misses only for weeks, I'd be surprised if they get to 50.  If he misses any more than that, which is very, very possible, no chance at all. 

I still agree that the odds are against that the Clips fade into the lottery, but 50 games feels pretty hard to reach unless Blake comes back in two weeks instead of four.  And as 9th place is probably somewhere between 45 and 47 wins, it could get interesting.

Re: Clippers Collapse
« Reply #53 on: February 09, 2015, 01:13:38 AM »

Offline Ogaju

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The Clippers are in serious trouble.  They have very little room available under the hard cap.  Their only expiring of greater than a minimum salary is DeAndre Jordan, whom they really can't trade right now.  They can't trade a first until 2019, and can't trade an unprotected 2nd until that time either.  They've been getting nothing from the small forward, in large part because Griffin can carry the frontcourt scoring load.  Now he's gone, they still have that hole at small forward, and Redick is out too.  Their trade assets amount to Matt Barnes' partially guaranteed contract, rookie CJ Wilcox, and picks 5 or so drafts out. 

Right now their healthy roster is Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, and a bunch of players who probably wouldn't start for the Celtics (although Crawford would get starter minutes, I admit.)  Given their upcoming schedule, things really can go south in a hurry for them.  If Griffin misses 6 weeks, and the Clips are still in the top 8 when he returns, Doc will have earned the draft pick they gave up to get him.

Indeed. They have a brutal rest of the month, featuring one Western playoff team after the next, including the Spurs, Grizz twice and the Rockets twice. After four consecutive losses already, there is a non-trivial chance they finish the month 0-9, which could derail their season. They could also respond well to the adversity - don't count out Doc - and limp through at 3-6, a less desperate state of affairs.

Don't count out Doc? LOL!!! On what evidence do you make this charge?

Re: Clippers Collapse
« Reply #54 on: February 09, 2015, 03:28:55 AM »

Offline greenhead85

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I wish the staph infection on Blake Griffin's elbow is susceptible to available antibiotics. It could get serious. I wish him well.

Their standing in the Western Conference is still not solid, playoff-wise. Phoenix, Oklahoma and New Orleans are still very much in the hunt for a place in the post-season play. So yeah, losing Griffin ( I think he could be missing more games than the projected one) could get the Celts a better position in the 2015 Draft.

Re: Clippers Collapse
« Reply #55 on: February 09, 2015, 06:59:39 AM »

Offline mctyson

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Quite frankly I don't really care where they end up.  Remember...we go this pick for TRADING A COACH.

Danny is a boss.

Re: Clippers Collapse
« Reply #56 on: February 09, 2015, 07:11:43 AM »

Offline tyrone biggums

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There is no possible way this team misses the playoffs. Jordan has been great all year and CP3 is always a great player to watch. Doc will clearly be put to the test since the knock on him is that he's overrated. I would love to be wrong and get a pick between 12-14 for letting Doc out of his contract but that will never happen.

Re: Clippers Collapse
« Reply #57 on: February 09, 2015, 02:17:54 PM »

Offline Ed Hollison

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A key thing to remember is that Doc is essentially the Clippers' GM, in that he has final say on all personnel decisions.

What that suggests to me is that the Clippers will be very aggressive in the trade market with Griffin down in an effort to keep the ship afloat, even if the cost is extremely high. If the Clippers miss the playoffs, that would be a huge embarrassment for Doc.

On another note... This episode is yet another reminder of how ridiculous it is to criticize Ainge at this juncture. He squeezed four unprotected first round picks out of two diminished hall of famers and a coach who wanted to leave anyway.
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Re: Clippers Collapse
« Reply #58 on: February 09, 2015, 02:22:53 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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A key thing to remember is that Doc is essentially the Clippers' GM, in that he has final say on all personnel decisions.

What that suggests to me is that the Clippers will be very aggressive in the trade market with Griffin down in an effort to keep the ship afloat, even if the cost is extremely high. If the Clippers miss the playoffs, that would be a huge embarrassment for Doc.

On another note... This episode is yet another reminder of how ridiculous it is to criticize Ainge at this juncture. He squeezed four unprotected first round picks out of two diminished hall of famers and a coach who wanted to leave anyway.

But what disposable salaries do the Clips have to trade with? Aside from a couple of vet min contracts, I see nothing that can be used to bring back help, without disrupting the rotation.

Clips are also right up against the lux tax threshold, I believe. They are pretty much strapped.
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Re: Clippers Collapse
« Reply #59 on: February 09, 2015, 02:32:02 PM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

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A key thing to remember is that Doc is essentially the Clippers' GM, in that he has final say on all personnel decisions.

What that suggests to me is that the Clippers will be very aggressive in the trade market with Griffin down in an effort to keep the ship afloat, even if the cost is extremely high. If the Clippers miss the playoffs, that would be a huge embarrassment for Doc.

On another note... This episode is yet another reminder of how ridiculous it is to criticize Ainge at this juncture. He squeezed four unprotected first round picks out of two diminished hall of famers and a coach who wanted to leave anyway.

I wonder what it's like to be 2 weeks from a trade deadline, to be coaching your team through the toughest stretch of the year, to lose your #1A star player, add your own son to the roster to try to re-generate his career, to be saddled with a mediocre bench in the middle of a highly competetive conference -- while hanging onto the playoffs, and perhaps your job, for dear life.   All this, and he's got the GM job too.   

I'd say that even though i am sure that he's got a crack crew of scouts and assistant GMs working with him, Doc is in a pretty stressful situation.  It's these situations that can lead to desperate or knee-jerk decisions.  Will be interesting to see what he does.