NCAA draft prospects positional breakdown

[CFAN38]

looking at the college players likely to be in the upcoming NBA draft. I have ranked them in the order from best prospect to worst and listed the skills that I feel they already possess at an NBA level and where they will struggle. I also included role I see them filling at their primes.

To give an example from the last draft of what I would have said about the Cs rookies

M Smart, + perimeter D, strength, - perimeter shooting (starting PG)

J Young, Shooting, Length, - shot selection (scoring 6th man)




2015 draft class (excluding over seas players)

PG

Russell, + shooting, court vision - perimeter D (#2/#1 scoring option)
Grant,   + size, attacking rim - nba 3pt range (3rd guard 6th man)
Jones,   + passing, court vision - defense (backup PG)


SG

Booker, + shooting - strength (#3 option)
LaVert,  + ball handling, length - strength (3rd guard)

SF

Johnson, + elite strength, athleticism, D -NBA 3pt range (#3 option)
Oubre  , + scoring, rebounding -strength, IQ (bench scorer 6th man)
Winslow, + athleticism, perimeter D, - shooting (bench role player)
Anderson, + strength, athleticism, D, corner 3 - ball handing (3-D 5th starter)
Hollis-Jefferson, + elite perimeter D, Athleticism, - shooting (defensive specialist)
Dekker, + size, IQ - nba 3pt shot (bench backup 3/4)

PF

Looney,+ length, athleticism, ball handling, rebounding - outside shot ( double double PF)
Harrell, + strength, length  athleticism, perimeter and post D - height , offensive skill set (PF 5th starter)
Kaminsky, +size, shooting, IQ - athleticism (stretch 4/5 3rd big)
Alexander, + strength, length, athleticism - offensive skill set, really a center (3rd big hustle guy)
Wood, + length, athleticism, skill set - strength (bench big)

Center

Okafor + post scoring, passing, size - defense (#1 option)
Towns + shot blocking, athleticism, face up game - consistency (#2 option)
Cauley Stein, + shot blocking, post D, pick and role D - offense (starting 5 4th defensive anchor)
Turner + shooting range, shot blocking - mobilitiy (5th starter)
Poeltl + mobility, hustle - strength (defensive 5th starter)
D Johnson + post scoring - mobility (rotational big)
Upshaw + size, shot blocking - mobility (rotational big)


I may have missed guys and will update as I go.

To clarify,

5th starter, by this I mean a specialist who is good enough to start. Ex Bruce Bowen 3-D, Perk defensive anchor

scoring 6th man, offensive spark like JR Smith, J Crawford, R Jackson

4th starter, not a top 3 scoring option but a key well rounded player

[hwangjini_1]

tp for the good post and good homework. my only suggestion is to include mudaiy in the pg category. it seems that he will be a great nba player. i would take him with the #1 overall pick.

[Boris Badenov]

tp for the good post and good homework. my only suggestion is to include mudaiy in the pg category. it seems that he will be a great nba player. i would take him with the #1 overall pick.

I think OP is focusing only on NCAA players.

[hwangjini_1]

tp for the good post and good homework. my only suggestion is to include mudaiy in the pg category. it seems that he will be a great nba player. i would take him with the #1 overall pick.

I think OP is focusing only on NCAA players.

right you are. wrong i am. thanks for  pointing this out boris. i had thought "draft available."

[coffee425]

tp for the good post and good homework. my only suggestion is to include mudaiy in the pg category. it seems that he will be a great nba player. i would take him with the #1 overall pick.

I think OP is focusing only on NCAA players.

right you are. wrong i am. thanks for  pointing this out boris. i had thought "draft available."

TP for the breakdown.
So far, i think my Celtics Big Board (assuming a top 10 pick) is pretty simple. In order: Okafor, Stanley Johnson, the next 4 Centers, Looney. I figure we'd get a shot at those 7.

As for Mudiay and Russell, i don't trust Mudiay's attitude and Russell's lack of athleticism looks more and more like Evan Turner by the day.

[krumeto]

Thank you for keeping us up-to-date with the prospects in this and other threads!

One question - do you think Poeltl will declare this year? I like him a lot and would like us to package the Clips 1st and some 2nd rounder(s) to move up and grab him.

[celticmania]

very good job !!

I hope you dont mind me doing a few international players:

Emmanuel Mudiay +size, scoring/attacking rim,athleticism -inconsistent shooting (franchise pg)

Mario hezonja +athleticism, shooting, potential -character/intangibles (super 6th man)

Kristas Porzingiz +perimeter skills, shot blocking -strength (#3 option)

[CFAN38]

tp for the good post and good homework. my only suggestion is to include mudaiy in the pg category. it seems that he will be a great nba player. i would take him with the #1 overall pick.

I think OP is focusing only on NCAA players.

right you are. wrong i am. thanks for  pointing this out boris. i had thought "draft available."

TP for the breakdown.
So far, i think my Celtics Big Board (assuming a top 10 pick) is pretty simple. In order: Okafor, Stanley Johnson, the next 4 Centers, Looney. I figure we'd get a shot at those 7.

As for Mudiay and Russell, i don't trust Mudiay's attitude and Russell's lack of athleticism looks more and more like Evan Turner by the day.

I personally dont think Russell athleticism will be a problem. He is not an elite athlete but he has great size at the PG and an exemplary skill set. His physical profile is very similar to Austin Rivers but his skill set is better at every facet of the game. Lets not forget that Steph Curry is not an elite athlete for a PG.

very good job !!

I hope you dont mind me doing a few international players:

Emmanuel Mudiay +size, scoring/attacking rim,athleticism -inconsistent shooting (franchise pg)

Mario hezonja +athleticism, shooting, potential -character/intangibles (super 6th man)

Kristas Porzingiz +perimeter skills, shot blocking -strength (#3 option)

I left our any non NCAA player for the simple fact that I have not really watched them play. Mudiay I saw in the Nike and the other two just on youtube.

Based on youtube, write ups and stats I think your evaluation is spot on.

[CFAN38]

Thank you for keeping us up-to-date with the prospects in this and other threads!

One question - do you think Poeltl will declare this year? I like him a lot and would like us to package the Clips 1st and some 2nd rounder(s) to move up and grab him.

No idea I hope he does declare. My gut says he stays in college. With the abundance of big men this year his stock will be lower. If he stays a year and improves like I think he will he will be a lock for the top 10 next draft.

[coffee425]

tp for the good post and good homework. my only suggestion is to include mudaiy in the pg category. it seems that he will be a great nba player. i would take him with the #1 overall pick.

I think OP is focusing only on NCAA players.

right you are. wrong i am. thanks for  pointing this out boris. i had thought "draft available."

TP for the breakdown.
So far, i think my Celtics Big Board (assuming a top 10 pick) is pretty simple. In order: Okafor, Stanley Johnson, the next 4 Centers, Looney. I figure we'd get a shot at those 7.

As for Mudiay and Russell, i don't trust Mudiay's attitude and Russell's lack of athleticism looks more and more like Evan Turner by the day.

I personally dont think Russell athleticism will be a problem. He is not an elite athlete but he has great size at the PG and an exemplary skill set. His physical profile is very similar to Austin Rivers but his skill set is better at every facet of the game. Lets not forget that Steph Curry is not an elite athlete for a PG.

I respectfully disagree. Steph is lightning quick off the dribble and his shot has extremely quick release. I am seeing so much Evan Turner in Russell. Ironic that they went to the same school. Don't forget, Evan was putting up 20pt-9rbs-6ast as tall point guard in college.

My point is, unless you have extreme quickness like Westbrook/Rose, being a large point guard actually hurts your game in the league. How can he guard the first-steps of the elite pgs? And honestly, how is he gonna drive by elite pg defenders like Bradley and Smart??

[Evantime34]

tp for the good post and good homework. my only suggestion is to include mudaiy in the pg category. it seems that he will be a great nba player. i would take him with the #1 overall pick.

I think OP is focusing only on NCAA players.

right you are. wrong i am. thanks for  pointing this out boris. i had thought "draft available."

TP for the breakdown.
So far, i think my Celtics Big Board (assuming a top 10 pick) is pretty simple. In order: Okafor, Stanley Johnson, the next 4 Centers, Looney. I figure we'd get a shot at those 7.

As for Mudiay and Russell, i don't trust Mudiay's attitude and Russell's lack of athleticism looks more and more like Evan Turner by the day.

I personally dont think Russell athleticism will be a problem. He is not an elite athlete but he has great size at the PG and an exemplary skill set. His physical profile is very similar to Austin Rivers but his skill set is better at every facet of the game. Lets not forget that Steph Curry is not an elite athlete for a PG.

I respectfully disagree. Steph is lightning quick off the dribble and his shot has extremely quick release. I am seeing so much Evan Turner in Russell. Ironic that they went to the same school. Don't forget, Evan was putting up 20pt-9rbs-6ast as tall point guard in college.

My point is, unless you have extreme quickness like Westbrook/Rose, being a large point guard actually hurts your game in the league. How can he guard the first-steps of the elite pgs? And honestly, how is he gonna drive by elite pg defenders like Bradley and Smart??

While I don't think D'Angelo Russell is on Steph Curry's level as a shooter comparing him to Evan Turner is kind of ridiculous. Turner shot 33% on 1.4 3's a game, Russell is shooting 46% on 6.3 3's a game. For reference Curry shot 41% on 8.8 3's a game his freshman year against much easier competition than Russell faced.

Steph is lightning quick off the dribble because almost every time he drives someone is running full speed at him trying to close out on his shot, it's easier to go by people when they are running in the opposite direction.

 I personally don't see the lack of athleticism in his game that you speak of and think that even if he weren't a great athlete his craftiness with the ball would make up for it.

I see him guarding more 2's in the NBA than 3's so not being quick enough to stay with the elite 1's isn't that big of a problem (similar to how Curry always guards the other teams lesser guard with Klay Thompson taking the tough defensive responsibility).

Having a Smart/Russell back court would set us great for the long term, but I think it's extremely unlikely we have the opportunity to draft him.

[Smartacus]

Great list,

I'd add Delon Wright as a PG and take him over Jones and Jerian Grant.

Rashad Vaughn to the Sgs. Greater shooter solid athlete freshman
Wayne Seldin might be starting to come on too and he's an interesting choice with his size and shooting stroke.

Other than that I'd just raise Dekker up over Rondae and Anderson.

Nice work!

[CFAN38]

Great list,

I'd add Delon Wright as a PG and take him over Jones and Jerian Grant.

Rashad Vaughn to the Sgs. Greater shooter solid athlete freshman
Wayne Seldin might be starting to come on too and he's an interesting choice with his size and shooting stroke.

Other than that I'd just raise Dekker up over Rondae and Anderson.

Nice work!

Thanks, I am planning on adding more guys and giving more break down as the college season goes on. I put RHJ and Anderson over Dekker for the simple fact that the later two have set defensive positions in the NBA. I worry if Dekker will be able to guard NBA SFs every night He also is a bit of a jack of all trades master of none which can be a scary thing for a role player.

[PickNRoll]

Nice list, TP.  This lines up pretty much exactly with my thoughts.

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=75904.msg1815315#msg1815315

Re: D'Angelo Russell - this kid can flat out play.  Superb court vision, superb feel for the game, very good shooter, albeit with low release point.  Should have NBA 3pt range.  Plus rebounder for a PG.  Sneaky quick, excellent hesitation moves, no trouble getting his shot, can stop on a dime with good pull-up mechanics, scores from anywhere.  And he's 18 years old!!

You'd be absolutely crazy to pass on Russell.  He's one of maybe 3 or 4 guys with All-Star potential in this draft.

CFAN38 - can I put you on the spot and ask who your 2,3, and 4 picks would be without regard for need (assuming Okafor is 1)?  Also, any thoughts on Bobby Portis?

[PhoSita]

I appreciate this breakdown because it sets modest projections for the players.

Confirms the sense I already had, i.e. that Okafor and Towns are the real prizes in this draft, with Johnson, Russell, and Mudiay as pretty nice consolation.  Aside from that, there are some guys who have good tools and may become quality role players.

I think if the Celtics fall outside of the top 4-5, as they probably will, snagging Cauley-Stein or Porzingis would be a good way to go.  I don't think either will ever be a star, but if you're going to draft a role player, getting a rim protecting 4/5 is good value even in the top 10. 

Cauley-Stein would immediately slot into a time-share role with Zeller and solidify things up front for this team pretty nicely, I believe.  Porzingis has a higher ceiling but I think he'll take a few years to come into his own, and might not even come over right away.