DeMarcus Cousins is NOT a star..Boxscoregeeks.com explains why...

[chambers]

Interesting article. They've convinced me for the most part.
Would I trade the number one pick for Boogie? If Okafur is there, then I don't think I do now...
Please visit their site, they are simply amazing, and their main man Arturo is a die hard Celtics fan.
You'll have to go to the site to see the graphs anyway.

http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/we-agree-demarcus-cousins-isn-t-an-all-star

The fans and coaches have spoken, and Demarcus Cousins isn't an All-Star. By conventional methods, sure, he's a star. He makes lots of money and scores lots of points. The reason for the snub is because he's on a bad team. While we certainly never hold a bad team against a star, the reality is that part of the reason the Kings aren't a top team is because Cousins isn't a star. He's an above average player, but not a star. Let's review why!

A quick primer
The Wins Produced formula estimates how many wins a player contributed to their team. This is based on point differential -- how much their team outscored the opponent. Points over Par (PoP) is a variant of Wins Produced that examines what spread a player earns their team in a game. This is done by comparing a player to the average performance at their given position. However much they overperform (or underperform) can be mapped into what edge they would give their team in a match. Also, we can directly map this back to the statistics. We can tell you why a player is good or bad according to the metric, unlike, say RPM. We'll be using PoP throughout this article to explain DeMarcus Cousins' game.

jsFiddle for charts below.

Boxscore Geeks Comparison Engine for Numbers

Offensively...he hurts his team
A significant reason people think Cousins is such a good player is his high points per game average. At 23.8 points per game, DeMarcus Cousins is top seven in scoring this season. Tack on 3.2 assists and, at first glance, DeMarcus Cousins appears to be a dominant player on offense. Except, not quite.


In regards to scoring, DeMarcus Cousins is superb at free throws. He earns his team a two-point edge per game with them. Except, he's quite bad – compared to other centers – at shooting from the field. His assists do help, but Cousins has a glaring weakness in his offense. He turns the ball over way too much. All the "good" his scoring and assists do? It's completely eaten by his inability to hold onto the ball. And, at least on offense, his rebounds are pretty much average for a center. In short, DeMarcus's offense can't overcome his poor ball handling.

Defensively ... he's ok

Despite this odd meme, that "we can't capture defense" with the stats, we do keep four defensive boxscore stats. It turns out this is where DeMarcus "shines"...well, kind of. DeMarcus is excellent at getting defensive rebounds. Of course, it turns out this is one of the statistics impacted by your team. For every defensive rebound you nab, you can pretty much know your team would have gotten it half the time. So despite getting 3.5 more defensive rebounds than the average center, it amounts to less than 1.5 points. His blocks, like his offensive boards, are pretty much spot on for a center. He is good at stealing the ball. And, while not as bad as his turnovers, Cousins is quite foul prone. As a result, Cousins ends up helping his team on defense. But at 1.6 Points over Par, it just covers his poor offensive stats.

More Defense
The boxscore does capture all of the defensive information we need. The problem is that it can't attribute some of it to individuals. This amounts to opponent shooting (ignoring blocks) and turnovers not assigned to individual players. The Kings have an appalling defense, so in respect to these numbers, without having a better way to measure it, DeMarcus Cousins defensive numbers could take a hit. But, we can do an extreme thought experiment. What if, hypothetically, DeMarcus Cousins' defense that was not already captured by the boxscore was as good as the best team defense in the league? The Milwaukee Bucks have this. Additionally, let's pretend DeMarcus was as good as two players playing at this level. Adjusting for this factor, DeMarcus Cousins' Points over Par per game would be...+1.25. For perspective, if we assumed every forward/center in the West better than him was responsible for twice the defense of the worst team in the league (the Timberwolves), here's how our frontcourt in the West would shake out:

Anthony Davis - 5.6 PoP per game with the defensive penalty
DeAndre Jordan - 4.95 PoP per game with the defensive penalty
Tyson Chandler - 4.4 PoP per game with the defensive penalty
Kevin Durant - 4.2 PoP per game with the defensive penalty
Kawhi Leonard - 2.7 PoP per game with the defensive penalty
Rudy Gobert - 2.38 PoP per game with the defensive penalty
Zach Randolph - 2.34 PoP per game with the defensive penalty
Harrison Barnes - 1.64 PoP per game with the defensive penalty
Draymond Green - 1.55 PoP per game with the defensive penalty
Brandan Wright - 1.46 PoP per game with the defensive penalty
Derrick Favors - 1.38 PoP per game with the defensive penalty
Andrew Bogut - 1.31 PoP per game with the defensive penalty
P.J. Tucker - 1.30 PoP per game with the defensive penalty
DeMarcus Cousins - 1.25 PoP per game with a defensive boost
Yes, even if we gave DeMarcus Cousins an enormous defensive lift and penalized every other big in the West, DeMarcus Cousins wouldn't crack the top 10! His stats say he's an above average player. If we assume his defense is spectacular, he'd be a good, not great player. The reality is that Cousins is not a star player. All you need to do is look at his shooting efficiency and turnovers to see he's not at the same level as other players. The only real way DeMarcus Cousins could be considered a star is if he won a massive popularity contest, which he didn't. At least, DeMarcus Cousins' team thinks he's a star, or at least, pays him like one.

One last word on star criteria
One of the "easy" ways to make DeMarcus Cousins look like a star is to use the following logic: look at what he does well, and ignore what he does poorly. Except, this doesn't make sense. We can't credit DeMarcus Cousins with being good at defense and then ignore those very same stats in regards to his offense. The reality is turnovers and fouls are bad. The reality is Cousins' shooting, while better than average, does not compare with other elite players. To call DeMarcus Cousins a star requires making a lot of assumptions and ignoring reality. And thankfully, the fans and coaches didn't do that.

[Who]

His turnovers are an eye sore. Over 4 turnovers a game as a center? That is terrible. Dragging his offensive efficiency way down. Needs to get that under control back down around 3.0 to 3.5 TOs per game like he was in previous two seasons. 

[Roy H.]

Any statistic that comes to this conclusion is a joke. 

DeMarcus Cousins doesn't contribute to wins?  Despite being on a horrific team, he's a +143 on the season.  His team is 18.9 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court versus him off the court!  At least of a couple of weeks ago, the Kings starting lineup was the very best defensive lineup in the NBA, and were among the leaders in point differential.  His defense has been elite, near the top of league in FG% at the rim and on pick-and-rolls.

I am dumber for having tried to read this article.  It's time for them to re-work what is obviously a very flawed stat.  Sure, he has too many turnovers, because he's asked to do too much.  However, even with those turnovers, the Kings are a *dominant* team with Cousins on the floor.  The reasons the Kings don't win more isn't because of Cousins; it's because in the 14 minutes or so where he has to go to the bench, they get destroyed.

[chambers]

Any statistic that comes to this conclusion is a joke. 

DeMarcus Cousins doesn't contribute to wins?  Despite being on a horrific team, he's a +143 on the season.  His team is 18.9 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court versus him off the court!  At least of a couple of weeks ago, the Kings starting lineup was the very best defensive lineup in the NBA, and were among the leaders in point differential.  His defense has been elite, near the top of league in FG% at the rim and on pick-and-rolls.

I am dumber for having tried to read this article.  It's time for them to re-work what is obviously a very flawed stat.  Sure, he has too many turnovers, because he's asked to do too much.  However, even with those turnovers, the Kings are a *dominant* team with Cousins on the floor.  The reasons the Kings don't win more isn't because of Cousins; it's because in the 14 minutes or so where he has to go to the bench, they get destroyed.

Here's a comment at the bottom of the article...

whoever says demarcus cousins deserves to be an all-star is a fool among the 19 centers who play at least 25 min per game he is ranked 1st in most fouls and turnovers per minute, 8th in blocks, 11th in off rebounds, 16th in efg and 10th in ts, yes he ranks 1st in steals and 4th in assist but that's not his primary role when it comes to big man duties such as rebounding and defense he fails miserably.

[PickNRoll]

There is no statistic that could convince me Cousins isn't a dominant center.  Complete rubbish.

[FreddieJ]

Any statistic that comes to this conclusion is a joke. 

DeMarcus Cousins doesn't contribute to wins?  Despite being on a horrific team, he's a +143 on the season.  His team is 18.9 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court versus him off the court!  At least of a couple of weeks ago, the Kings starting lineup was the very best defensive lineup in the NBA, and were among the leaders in point differential.  His defense has been elite, near the top of league in FG% at the rim and on pick-and-rolls.

I am dumber for having tried to read this article.  It's time for them to re-work what is obviously a very flawed stat.  Sure, he has too many turnovers, because he's asked to do too much.  However, even with those turnovers, the Kings are a *dominant* team with Cousins on the floor.  The reasons the Kings don't win more isn't because of Cousins; it's because in the 14 minutes or so where he has to go to the bench, they get destroyed.

Here's a comment at the bottom of the article...

whoever says demarcus cousins deserves to be an all-star is a fool among the 19 centers who play at least 25 min per game he is ranked 1st in most fouls and turnovers per minute, 8th in blocks, 11th in off rebounds, 16th in efg and 10th in ts, yes he ranks 1st in steals and 4th in assist but that's not his primary role when it comes to big man duties such as rebounding and defense he fails miserably.

Comment doesn't make sense.. Rebounding, he is probably the best defensive rebounder in the league and according to that piece average on offensive boards.. Defensively he rates very well and the Kings are much better with him on the court

[sahara]

DMC is a beast. A young beast. If he gets to play with another superstar, you can´t stop that team.

[Roy H.]

Cousins is first in RPM (Real Plus Minus), first in DRPM, and second to Tyson Chandler (weirdly) in WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/9

He's the best center in the league.

[FreddieJ]

Cousins is first in RPM (Real Plus Minus), first in DRPM, and second to Tyson Chandler (weirdly) in WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/9

He's the best center in the league.

Absolutely Roy.. The only thing I will give the writer credit for is pointing out the turnovers and fouls, which drive me to wanting to ring his neck a lot.. But those two facets are traits that can be improved upon with maturity and stem from the fact that he is learning being the focal point of an offense like few other centers have the ability to do

[Granath]

Any statistic that comes to this conclusion is a joke. 

DeMarcus Cousins doesn't contribute to wins?  Despite being on a horrific team, he's a +143 on the season.  His team is 18.9 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court versus him off the court!  At least of a couple of weeks ago, the Kings starting lineup was the very best defensive lineup in the NBA, and were among the leaders in point differential.  His defense has been elite, near the top of league in FG% at the rim and on pick-and-rolls.

I am dumber for having tried to read this article.  It's time for them to re-work what is obviously a very flawed stat.  Sure, he has too many turnovers, because he's asked to do too much.  However, even with those turnovers, the Kings are a *dominant* team with Cousins on the floor.  The reasons the Kings don't win more isn't because of Cousins; it's because in the 14 minutes or so where he has to go to the bench, they get destroyed.

TP

Mr. BoxScoreGeeks, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

[The Fawb]

  Wow that comment was incredibly rude and against the forum rules to boot. Anyway.
Box score geeks base their analysis of the Wins Produced metric, which uses statistacal regression on the our modern box score to find the correlation to actual team wins each stat has. It is backed up by actual data and years of proof. Please present a better statistical analysis for nba wins. DMC is a good player, as this article says. Just not one of the top 5 big men. One place where alot of you give him the benefit of the doubt is on fouls and T.O.s, saying that they get better with maturity, but this metric does not say what he will be, only what he is right now, and has been his whole career, above average. High point totals don't make a good player by themselves. Also RPM, DRPM and on off stats are terribly noisy and do not take away contributions by teammates.

[pearljammer10]

Any statistic that comes to this conclusion is a joke. 

DeMarcus Cousins doesn't contribute to wins?  Despite being on a horrific team, he's a +143 on the season.  His team is 18.9 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court versus him off the court!  At least of a couple of weeks ago, the Kings starting lineup was the very best defensive lineup in the NBA, and were among the leaders in point differential.  His defense has been elite, near the top of league in FG% at the rim and on pick-and-rolls.

I am dumber for having tried to read this article.  It's time for them to re-work what is obviously a very flawed stat.  Sure, he has too many turnovers, because he's asked to do too much.  However, even with those turnovers, the Kings are a *dominant* team with Cousins on the floor.  The reasons the Kings don't win more isn't because of Cousins; it's because in the 14 minutes or so where he has to go to the bench, they get destroyed.

"I am dumber for having tried to read this article"

My exact thoughts halfway through the first paragraph. I think the Cousins haters are funny. Cousins is a dominate player on a bad team and he is still helping them be competitive. Ican't wait til he gets out of Sacramento. What a mess there.

[pearljammer10]

Any statistic that comes to this conclusion is a joke. 

DeMarcus Cousins doesn't contribute to wins?  Despite being on a horrific team, he's a +143 on the season.  His team is 18.9 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court versus him off the court!  At least of a couple of weeks ago, the Kings starting lineup was the very best defensive lineup in the NBA, and were among the leaders in point differential.  His defense has been elite, near the top of league in FG% at the rim and on pick-and-rolls.

I am dumber for having tried to read this article.  It's time for them to re-work what is obviously a very flawed stat.  Sure, he has too many turnovers, because he's asked to do too much.  However, even with those turnovers, the Kings are a *dominant* team with Cousins on the floor.  The reasons the Kings don't win more isn't because of Cousins; it's because in the 14 minutes or so where he has to go to the bench, they get destroyed.

TP

Mr. BoxScoreGeeks, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Haha priceless. TP to you here.

[Roy H.]

Wow that comment was incredibly rude and against the forum rules to boot. Anyway.
Box score geeks base their analysis of the Wins Produced metric, which uses statistacal regression on the our modern box score to find the correlation to actual team wins each stat has. It is backed up by actual data and years of proof. Please present a better statistical analysis for nba wins. DMC is a good player, as this article says. Just not one of the top 5 big men. One place where alot of you give him the benefit of the doubt is on fouls and T.O.s, saying that they get better with maturity, but this metric does not say what he will be, only what he is right now, and has been his whole career, above average. High point totals don't make a good player by themselves. Also RPM, DRPM and on off stats are terribly noisy and do not take away contributions by teammates.

First, the statement isn't against forum rules, as public figures can be criticized.  Plus, it's a quote from Billy Madison.

Second, just because there isn't a "better" stat doesn't mean this is a good stat.  DMC has been amazing defensively this year, backed up by points per possession numbers.  Last I checked, he led all players in DRB%.  He ranks extremely highly in stats that focus on plus-minus.  His team has been very successfully while he's been on the court, and completely terrible when he's been sitting.  Oh, and he's the only player in the past 15 years other than KG to average 23+ points, 12+ rebounds, 1.5 blocks, and 1.5 steals.

A stat that suggests that that guy isn't a star is a stat I put no stock in.  Basketball is more than statistically manipulating a box score.

[Csfan1984]

If they had said super star it would be a debate because Boogie does have some flaws. But he is a Star for sure and he is still going to get better. He also out played Davis the NBA's newest darling each matchup. Cousins pretty much out performs any big on the other team and is a true force in a game.