Author Topic: Jared Sullinger doesn't need to chuck his way into shooting ability  (Read 3197 times)

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Offline littleteapot

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I understand why the C's want Sully to be a threat from the three-point line. However, is there any evidence that you need to do this by turning games into your own personal 3 point shooting practice?

Boris Diaw didn't have a good 3PT% until year 6. The 5 previous years he took a total of 192 3 PT attempts. He was clearly working on his shot and trying to take a few when he was really wide open in the middle of games. However, he was not shooting them willy nilly until he got good at it.

So how did he ever get good at it if he took less than 1 per game for the first 5 years of his career? Because you can practice 3's at ANY time! I understand getting used to the crowd and all of that, but the actual muscle memory that you're trying to build up is the exact same in a game as it is in practice, warmups or the offesason.

Contrast this to Sully (by the way a much better interior player than Diaw) who has taken almost 400 threes in his 2 and a half year career. I don't think we have any evidence this will give him a faster learning curve with his shot than Diaw - he hasn't shown much improvement at all and still might not get it until he's 25ish. Meanwhile possessions where we could get the best practice possible running our offense and working together as a team against real competition are being wasted as Sully's shot clanks off the rim.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2015, 02:25:51 PM by Redz »
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Re: Jared Sullinger doesn't need to chuck his way into shoting ability
« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2015, 11:20:08 AM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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I understand why the C's want Sully to be a threat from the three-point line. However, is there any evidence that you need to do this by turning games into your own personal 3 point shooting practice?

Boris Diaw didn't have a good 3PT% until year 6. The 5 previous years he took a total of 192 3 PT attempts. He was clearly working on his shot and trying to take a few when he was really wide open in the middle of games. However, he was not shooting them willy nilly until he got good at it.

So how did he ever get good at it if he took less than 1 per game for the first 5 years of his career? Because you can practice 3's at ANY time! I understand getting used to the crowd and all of that, but the actual muscle memory that you're trying to build up is the exact same in a game as it is in practice, warmups or the offesason.

Contrast this to Sully (by the way a much better interior player than Diaw) who has taken almost 400 threes in his 2 and a half year career. I don't think we have any evidence this will give him a faster learning curve with his shot than Diaw - he hasn't shown much improvement at all and still might not get it until he's 25ish. Meanwhile possessions where we could get the best practice possible running our offense and working together as a team against real competition are being wasted as Sully's shot clanks off the rim.
while your basic point is good and worth discussing, this one point is not entirely accurate. in his three years, sully has shot from 3 point range:

20%, 27% 30%

none of them are great percentages, but it is as steady an improvement as you can ask for three years.

diaw's first three years were:

23%, 18%, and 27%. so sully is "ahead" of diaw, whose shooting was inconsistent.

further, is CBS telling sully to shoot 3s when open? did diaw's coach do this? indeed, a counter argument might be that diaw's improvement was delayed due to a lack of shooting. (i am not convinced by this, i just making a possible counter argument here.)

yes, sully's 3 point percentage this is season is poor, improved, but still poor. but if he is going to "chuck" 3s as part of his shooting development, THESE SEASONS WHEN THE CELTICS ARE TANKING are the time to do so.

this team stinks with or without sully's 3 pointers, so, for the sake of improving quickly, let him chuck away.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2015, 11:26:17 AM by hwangjini_1 »
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Re: Jared Sullinger doesn't need to chuck his way into shoting ability
« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2015, 11:35:02 AM »

Offline Scottie

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In late game situations like today where we were playing from behind, I'd like one of our other shooters taking the shot and Sully down on the glass looking for the rebound.

Re: Jared Sullinger doesn't need to chuck his way into shoting ability
« Reply #3 on: January 31, 2015, 12:00:05 PM »

Offline jambr380

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In late game situations like today where we were playing from behind, I'd like one of our other shooters taking the shot and Sully down on the glass looking for the rebound.

Yeah, I mean we should at least try to get AB open off of a screen or bring in James Young to see what we have. I know KO is injured, but he is way better than Sully is at threes. The thing is, Sullinger actually has post skills and a soft touch, I don't understand why we don't see more of that.

By letting guys like Sully and Smart fire away at will from three, we are also taking away what made them top prospects in the first place.

Re: Jared Sullinger doesn't need to chuck his way into shoting ability
« Reply #4 on: January 31, 2015, 12:07:21 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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In late game situations like today where we were playing from behind, I'd like one of our other shooters taking the shot and Sully down on the glass looking for the rebound.

Yeah, I mean we should at least try to get AB open off of a screen or bring in James Young to see what we have. I know KO is injured, but he is way better than Sully is at threes. The thing is, Sullinger actually has post skills and a soft touch, I don't understand why we don't see more of that.

By letting guys like Sully and Smart fire away at will from three, we are also taking away what made them top prospects in the first place.
maybe. but then maybe CBS is thinking that if both of these players could learn to shoot three pointers then they would be even better players. that is, they will be adding to what made them top prospects.

if so, now is certainly the time to experiment and let them learn.
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Re: Jared Sullinger doesn't need to chuck his way into shoting ability
« Reply #5 on: January 31, 2015, 12:09:09 PM »

Offline littleteapot

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further, is CBS telling sully to shoot 3s when open? did diaw's coach do this? indeed, a counter argument might be that diaw's improvement was delayed due to a lack of shooting. (i am not convinced by this, i just making a possible counter argument here.)

yes, sully's 3 point percentage this is season is poor, improved, but still poor. but if he is going to "chuck" 3s as part of his shooting development, THESE SEASONS WHEN THE CELTICS ARE TANKING are the time to do so.

this team stinks with or without sully's 3 pointers, so, for the sake of improving quickly, let him chuck away.
You're right that Sully is slightly better than Diaw was in the early years, but I don't think it's a big difference.

I don't think Diaw's shooting development was delayed by not shooting enough in-game. I think it just takes years to go from where Sully is to being a good 3 pt shooter. It's not like there was a year where Diaw shot a lot of 3's for a low percentage and got him in game practice. He just became a good 3pt shooter by shooting them outside of games and working with coaches.

I do think this is coming from the coach. The is the same formula they're trying with many other guys.

We were successful with this strategy with Bradley, but he's a guard and he always had form and release that I think were better than Sully's, even if he didn't have the reps. Can you name a big man on any team who chucked his way into shooting ability?
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Re: Jared Sullinger doesn't need to chuck his way into shoting ability
« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2015, 12:13:59 PM »

Offline Chris22

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Sullinger was shooting 40% for a while, but now his shot seems to have flattened out.

I think he may have a hand injury.

Re: Jared Sullinger doesn't need to chuck his way into shoting ability
« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2015, 01:38:37 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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further, is CBS telling sully to shoot 3s when open? did diaw's coach do this? indeed, a counter argument might be that diaw's improvement was delayed due to a lack of shooting. (i am not convinced by this, i just making a possible counter argument here.)

yes, sully's 3 point percentage this is season is poor, improved, but still poor. but if he is going to "chuck" 3s as part of his shooting development, THESE SEASONS WHEN THE CELTICS ARE TANKING are the time to do so.

this team stinks with or without sully's 3 pointers, so, for the sake of improving quickly, let him chuck away.
You're right that Sully is slightly better than Diaw was in the early years, but I don't think it's a big difference.

I don't think Diaw's shooting development was delayed by not shooting enough in-game. I think it just takes years to go from where Sully is to being a good 3 pt shooter. It's not like there was a year where Diaw shot a lot of 3's for a low percentage and got him in game practice. He just became a good 3pt shooter by shooting them outside of games and working with coaches.

I do think this is coming from the coach. The is the same formula they're trying with many other guys.

We were successful with this strategy with Bradley, but he's a guard and he always had form and release that I think were better than Sully's, even if he didn't have the reps. Can you name a big man on any team who chucked his way into shooting ability?
i am not sure how we are defining "chucking his way into shooting ability" but will go with "increased shooting corresponded with increased percentage made." not perfect, but arguably one valid way to look at this topic.

a quick search showed these centers who only took relatively few 3 pointer early in their careers, but when they started shooting a higher volume their percentages went up. please note that NONE of them match sullinger exactly - no one does that i found - but they do show that with time and shooting, some big men do indeed increase their 3 point shooting percentages.

charlie villaneua - he started a good shooter, but improved.

those below fit a general and squishy category of "started off with low volume, low percentage. then shot at a higher volume and and their percentage went up."
- bill laimbeeer
- mehmet okur
- troy murphy
- channing frye

not many and not exact matches (it was a quick search), but some big men have indeed been able to get better at 3 pointers as their volume increased.

again, this is a simple point. for some players, increased shooting = increased percentage through repetition, both in practice and in games. it does not guarantee sullinger will continue to increase his shooting percentage each year, but he has increased it so far. so its not impossible either.

for me, since sullinger's three point shooting does not matter in terms of w/l this year, i agree with CBS's choice to gamble and see if sully can increase his 3 point percentage. if sully can, he becomes a far more valuable player. but if after 2 or so more years sully still stinks at 3 pointers AND the celtics are returning to playoff relevance (i.e. the games really count),THEN, yes, shut him down.

i see your points and they are good ones. but i also see the logic to what i assume to be CBS' approach as well.
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Re: Jared Sullinger doesn't need to chuck his way into shoting ability
« Reply #8 on: January 31, 2015, 01:53:36 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Re: Jared Sullinger doesn't need to chuck his way into shoting ability
« Reply #9 on: January 31, 2015, 01:54:12 PM »

Offline littleteapot

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You know what? Troy Murphy is the perfect example of a guy who developed a shot with the trajectory we're trying to get out of Sully. I stand corrected.

I still don't like it but I can't say that it doesn't work.

EDIT: Never mind, I read to fast and didn't see that in Murphy's 4th year (the first one with high volume 3pt shooting, he shot 40%. I still haven't seen someone who shot 400 threes in 3 years at a low percentage and it caused him to quickly develop a 3 point shot.

Those guys are a little murky, because they had seasons like Murphy's 5th year where the percentage dropped off but they kept taking them, but I still haven't seen an example of a big shooting high volume 3s before he had any years of good shooting.
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Re: Jared Sullinger doesn't need to chuck his way into shooting ability
« Reply #10 on: January 31, 2015, 02:47:35 PM »

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I still think Sully could be a great midrange shooter.

It really ticks me off how little Stevens is encouraging him to develop & perfect this area of his game. That midrange shot with his screen-setting ability, passing ability and offensive rebounding threat = Sully is one of the most well rounded PFs in the league from 15-18 feet.

The three point shot is a useful weapon but I think the midrange game should be Sully's bread and butter. Interior game should be vary in usage. High usage against smaller PFs but lower usage against bigger more athletic PFs that Sully can struggle against. Perimeter game (three point shot) only used for occasional offense (5-10% of shot attempts) rather than large chunk (25+%) that is currently is.

I have believed since his rookie year that the midrange game is vital to Sully's development as a pro PF and I still believe so. Being good there isn't enough. He needs to become exceptional. To become one of the most accurate and prolific midrange shooters in the league. It'll setup everything else (offense) for him. Allow him to be consistent night in night out against the toughest defenders / team defenses in the league (unlike current shot selection which leads to increased inconsistency and vulnerability to strong defensive players/teams).

Re: Jared Sullinger doesn't need to chuck his way into shooting ability
« Reply #11 on: January 31, 2015, 04:03:20 PM »

Offline flybono

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How about this player learning how to play defense first, rebound second and becoming an inside post threat.
The last handful of games this guy is hard to watch. Cannot defend in the paint, plays slow and looks as if he has weight issues.
If I'm Ainge I would package this guy or trade him at the deadline. You want a three point shooter find one in the draft who can run the floor!

Re: Jared Sullinger doesn't need to chuck his way into shooting ability
« Reply #12 on: January 31, 2015, 04:13:50 PM »

Offline littleteapot

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Well I think he has the rebounding part figured out lol.
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