Author Topic: 11 draft picks next year  (Read 9215 times)

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Re: 11 draft picks next year
« Reply #15 on: January 30, 2015, 05:39:40 AM »

Offline Depalma2002

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Is this correct? Because I'd love it to be.

"Minnesota (or will convert to second rounders if outside top 12)"

No way this falls outside of 12. Minn will be back in the lottery next year.

Might be a disconnect here. Not sure why you would love that unless you are reading it differently than I intended.

We are talking about picks, so when I say it will convert to second rounders if outside the top 12, that means the pick is outside the top 12 (protected 1-12). It sounds like you might have thought I meant if Minnesota doesn't finish top 12.

So it is very likely that this pick will convert to 2016 and 2017 second rounders as the top 10 in the West seem pretty locked in.

However, don't sleep on Minnesota. A lot of their issues this year is from having 3 veteran starters injured almost the entire season and giving their young players a lot of burn.

Remember just last season, they picked #13. From that squad they did lose Kevin Love (and Corey Brewer) but have added Wiggins and Lavine (and Thad Young but he might not be around much longer) both who are developing quickly and have seen Dieng and Muhammad improve dramatically over year #1. Add continue improvement from that young core with hopefully healthy seasons from Pekovic, Martin, and Rubio, add in someone like Jahlil Okafor and this team can make a run at a top 10 seed in the West and the #10 seed in the West is likely #18 overall and would be picking #13.

They have Dieng playing some at PF to get him and Pekovic in the lineup at the same time and Okafor I think can play there as well.

A top 8 shortened rotation of Wiggins, Martin, Okafor, Rubio, Pekovic, Dieng, Muhammad, and Lavine is not a bad squad.

Of course this means someone in the current top #10 will need to drop and they all seem pretty set and improving. The most likely is if someone can convince Dragic to leave Phoenix, they may backslide just a bit or one someone is going to have to run into injury issues.

Again, in the West, it is still most likely to convert to 2 second rounders, but it is far from a sure thing.

Re: 11 draft picks next year
« Reply #16 on: January 30, 2015, 07:32:21 AM »

Offline konkmv

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by the end of february we could get more... i think the plan is to have at least plus 2 good players every year the next two seasons... 2015 he will keep the first pick and will try with the second rounders to go higher... at the 5-8 and 15-18 range will be our picks.. expect the 2 johnsons to be picked... next year we can hope that the nets pick will be in the lottery

Re: 11 draft picks next year
« Reply #17 on: January 30, 2015, 09:56:17 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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Is this correct? Because I'd love it to be.

"Minnesota (or will convert to second rounders if outside top 12)"

No way this falls outside of 12. Minn will be back in the lottery next year.

Might be a disconnect here. Not sure why you would love that unless you are reading it differently than I intended.

We are talking about picks, so when I say it will convert to second rounders if outside the top 12, that means the pick is outside the top 12 (protected 1-12). It sounds like you might have thought I meant if Minnesota doesn't finish top 12.


So it is very likely that this pick will convert to 2016 and 2017 second rounders as the top 10 in the West seem pretty locked in.

However, don't sleep on Minnesota. A lot of their issues this year is from having 3 veteran starters injured almost the entire season and giving their young players a lot of burn.

Remember just last season, they picked #13. From that squad they did lose Kevin Love (and Corey Brewer) but have added Wiggins and Lavine (and Thad Young but he might not be around much longer) both who are developing quickly and have seen Dieng and Muhammad improve dramatically over year #1. Add continue improvement from that young core with hopefully healthy seasons from Pekovic, Martin, and Rubio, add in someone like Jahlil Okafor and this team can make a run at a top 10 seed in the West and the #10 seed in the West is likely #18 overall and would be picking #13.

They have Dieng playing some at PF to get him and Pekovic in the lineup at the same time and Okafor I think can play there as well.

A top 8 shortened rotation of Wiggins, Martin, Okafor, Rubio, Pekovic, Dieng, Muhammad, and Lavine is not a bad squad.

Of course this means someone in the current top #10 will need to drop and they all seem pretty set and improving. The most likely is if someone can convince Dragic to leave Phoenix, they may backslide just a bit or one someone is going to have to run into injury issues.

Again, in the West, it is still most likely to convert to 2 second rounders, but it is far from a sure thing.
The way you worded it originally is very confusing.  it basically states that the pick converts to second rounders if they're outside the top 12.  completely different meaning from top 12 protected. 

top-12 protected would be a lot simpler for everyone to follow.

Re: 11 draft picks next year
« Reply #18 on: January 30, 2015, 10:02:25 AM »

Offline colincb

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I think You've got them a little mixed up. I believe we have 9 probable picks in 2016.

The Boston Second rounder is going to Memphis or Utah(the team on the far right column is the team that has the current rights to the pick).The Jazz get the better of the Celtics pick or Toronto's from Memphis

The Memphis/Dallas 2nd rounders are either or. We get the better of the two, not both.

They also only show the protected picks from Dallas and Minnesota in the 2015 column. They are unlikely to convey and if they don't, they will be in 2016.

So right now, we are looking at:

1st round:
Brooklyn
Boston
Minnesota (or will convert to second rounders if outside top 12)
Dallas (unless it falls within top 7)
Cleveland

2nd round:
Philly
Miami
Memphis/Dallas (the better of the two)
Cleveland

At least, I'm pretty sure that's correct. This is getting pretty [dang] confusing ???

This is correct after the clarification of the Minnesota pick(s). I'd assume that the Minn picks are 2nd rounders though it's not inconceivable that it ends up a mid-1st rounder. Either way that likely gives us 6-7 picks in the top 40, which are too many to use. That comes after 4 top-40 picks this year which is one more than what NBA peiople say can be reasonably be developed each year. That's 10-11 top 40 and 3-4 late 2nd rounders.

For the OP, a better site to review future draft pick status is:
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed

Easier to read and kept more current.

Re: 11 draft picks next year
« Reply #19 on: January 30, 2015, 10:13:00 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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With all our picks next year, I will be shocked if we don't trade up in the draft this year. I think the cost will be prohibitive to move into the top 3 or 4 but I bet we are able to move up into the late lottery if we don't make the playoffs or package the Clippers pick with a future pick to move into the teens.

I like the idea of stashing a bunch of euros, if just one pans out then all those 2nd rounders we traded for will be worth it.
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Re: 11 draft picks next year
« Reply #20 on: January 30, 2015, 11:15:20 AM »

Offline PaulAllen

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Its 5 this year and 9 next year unless something drastic happens like the 76ers making the playoffs of the mavs not making the plauyoffs but here is the most likely scenarios ..

 2 first-round picks in 2015 (Celtics, Clippers); 3 second-round picks (Celtics, 76ers, Wizards)

 4 first-round picks in 2016 (Celtics, Nets, Cavaliers, Mavericks); 5 second-round picks (76ers, Wolves, Heat, Cavaliers, Mavericks)

Re: 11 draft picks next year
« Reply #21 on: January 30, 2015, 11:29:16 AM »

Offline PaulAllen

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With all our picks next year, I will be shocked if we don't trade up in the draft this year. I think the cost will be prohibitive to move into the top 3 or 4 but I bet we are able to move up into the late lottery if we don't make the playoffs or package the Clippers pick with a future pick to move into the teens.

I like the idea of stashing a bunch of euros, if just one pans out then all those 2nd rounders we traded for will be worth it.

Usually big trades involving multiple picks to move up are rare in the NBA.. The idea is teams that may rebuild in the forthcoming years with a superstar they are exploring a trade.. Really the same way the Celtics are now (Rondo, Green)..

If Danny smells blood He will do his best to strike .. Remember he offered three firsts and KO for Love... so we know the way he is looking

Re: 11 draft picks next year
« Reply #22 on: January 30, 2015, 12:36:43 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Its 5 this year and 9 next year unless something drastic happens like the 76ers making the playoffs of the mavs not making the plauyoffs but here is the most likely scenarios ..

 2 first-round picks in 2015 (Celtics, Clippers); 3 second-round picks (Celtics, 76ers, Wizards)

 4 first-round picks in 2016 (Celtics, Nets, Cavaliers, Mavericks); 5 second-round picks (76ers, Wolves, Heat, Cavaliers, Mavericks)
good recap/summary.  much clearer.  TP

Re: 11 draft picks next year
« Reply #23 on: January 30, 2015, 01:15:23 PM »

Offline Depalma2002

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With all our picks next year, I will be shocked if we don't trade up in the draft this year. I think the cost will be prohibitive to move into the top 3 or 4 but I bet we are able to move up into the late lottery if we don't make the playoffs or package the Clippers pick with a future pick to move into the teens.

I like the idea of stashing a bunch of euros, if just one pans out then all those 2nd rounders we traded for will be worth it.

Usually big trades involving multiple picks to move up are rare in the NBA.. The idea is teams that may rebuild in the forthcoming years with a superstar they are exploring a trade.. Really the same way the Celtics are now (Rondo, Green)..

If Danny smells blood He will do his best to strike .. Remember he offered three firsts and KO for Love... so we know the way he is looking

Not all that rare.

Huges moves into the top 5 might be rare, but every year there are some first round picks moving for multiple picks.

This year, the Bulls swapped #16, #19, and a 2nd for #11
The Sixers swapped #10, for #13, a second, and a future first
The Hornets swapped #24 for #26, a second, and a future second.

The year before
Utah swapped #14 and #21 to move up #9
The Celtics swapped #16 and 2 future seconds to move up to #13 for Olynyk

There is always movement in the first round. It's mostly in the middle and late thirds but there will opportunites to move around if Ainge wishes to do so.

Re: 11 draft picks next year
« Reply #24 on: January 30, 2015, 01:47:31 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Lots and lots of Euro stashes.

Do you really think so, given Ainge's track record, I agree it might be time to take some risks in that regard.   I just don't think Ainge will do it.

Re: 11 draft picks next year
« Reply #25 on: January 30, 2015, 01:58:14 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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With all our picks next year, I will be shocked if we don't trade up in the draft this year. I think the cost will be prohibitive to move into the top 3 or 4 but I bet we are able to move up into the late lottery if we don't make the playoffs or package the Clippers pick with a future pick to move into the teens.

I like the idea of stashing a bunch of euros, if just one pans out then all those 2nd rounders we traded for will be worth it.

Usually big trades involving multiple picks to move up are rare in the NBA.. The idea is teams that may rebuild in the forthcoming years with a superstar they are exploring a trade.. Really the same way the Celtics are now (Rondo, Green)..

If Danny smells blood He will do his best to strike .. Remember he offered three firsts and KO for Love... so we know the way he is looking

Not all that rare.

Huges moves into the top 5 might be rare, but every year there are some first round picks moving for multiple picks.

This year, the Bulls swapped #16, #19, and a 2nd for #11
The Sixers swapped #10, for #13, a second, and a future first
The Hornets swapped #24 for #26, a second, and a future second.

The year before
Utah swapped #14 and #21 to move up #9
The Celtics swapped #16 and 2 future seconds to move up to #13 for Olynyk

There is always movement in the first round. It's mostly in the middle and late thirds but there will opportunites to move around if Ainge wishes to do so.
true, there's a little movement but look at the price paid to move just a few slots.

there are a handful of people (not saying you) that's repeatedly said Danny could just trade his way into a top 2 (top 3, top 5, top 8, etc...) pick if he misses in the lottery.  that's just not going to happen.  The only 2 times I recall the top pick being moved on draft night were:
1) the C's moving the #1 (Joe Barry Carroll and another first) for #3 (Mchale and Parish)
2) Orlando moving the #1 (Chris Webber) for #3 and change (Penny Hardaway).
    --> leads in to what I think would have been the best comment in ESPN studios with Shaq
         and Webber  ==> Shaq: Ha, Webber, you were so bad as a player you were traded for a
         Penny

If Danny wants a top 2/3 pick to get either Okafor or Towns, he isn't going to be able to do it unless he's only sliding up 1-2 spots.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2015, 02:04:55 PM by slamtheking »

Re: 11 draft picks next year
« Reply #26 on: January 30, 2015, 02:18:31 PM »

Offline PaulAllen

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With all our picks next year, I will be shocked if we don't trade up in the draft this year. I think the cost will be prohibitive to move into the top 3 or 4 but I bet we are able to move up into the late lottery if we don't make the playoffs or package the Clippers pick with a future pick to move into the teens.

I like the idea of stashing a bunch of euros, if just one pans out then all those 2nd rounders we traded for will be worth it.

Usually big trades involving multiple picks to move up are rare in the NBA.. The idea is teams that may rebuild in the forthcoming years with a superstar they are exploring a trade.. Really the same way the Celtics are now (Rondo, Green)..

If Danny smells blood He will do his best to strike .. Remember he offered three firsts and KO for Love... so we know the way he is looking

Not all that rare.

Huges moves into the top 5 might be rare, but every year there are some first round picks moving for multiple picks.

This year, the Bulls swapped #16, #19, and a 2nd for #11
The Sixers swapped #10, for #13, a second, and a future first
The Hornets swapped #24 for #26, a second, and a future second.

The year before
Utah swapped #14 and #21 to move up #9
The Celtics swapped #16 and 2 future seconds to move up to #13 for Olynyk

There is always movement in the first round. It's mostly in the middle and late thirds but there will opportunites to move around if Ainge wishes to do so.

I wasnt refering to moving up a few spots or a mid to late round pick.. Thinking more top 5-7 where the top level talent is..

Re: 11 draft picks next year
« Reply #27 on: January 30, 2015, 02:24:19 PM »

Offline Depalma2002

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true, there's a little movement but look at the price paid to move just a few slots.

there are a handful of people (not saying you) that's repeatedly said Danny could just trade his way into a top 2 (top 3, top 5, top 8, etc...) pick if he misses in the lottery.  that's just not going to happen.  The only 2 times I recall the top pick being moved on draft night were:
1) the C's moving the #1 (Joe Barry Carroll and another first) for #3 (Mchale and Parish)
2) Orlando moving the #1 (Chris Webber) for #3 and change (Penny Hardaway).
    --> leads in to what I think would have been the best comment in ESPN studios with Shaq
         and Webber  ==> Shaq: Ha, Webber, you were so bad as a player you were traded for a
         Penny

If Danny wants a top 2/3 pick to get either Okafor or Towns, he isn't going to be able to do it unless he's only sliding up 1-2 spots.

Totally agree there. Basically no one is trading a top tier pick (this year it looks like 1-3) unless they are getting another top tier pick in return. The value gap is just too large between the very top guys in the next group.

Most likely is if Danny sees someone that is 10-13 on his board sitting there in the late teens, he should be able to move up from the Clippers pick using a future first and a second, for example.

Re: 11 draft picks next year
« Reply #28 on: January 30, 2015, 02:27:23 PM »

Offline Depalma2002

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With all our picks next year, I will be shocked if we don't trade up in the draft this year. I think the cost will be prohibitive to move into the top 3 or 4 but I bet we are able to move up into the late lottery if we don't make the playoffs or package the Clippers pick with a future pick to move into the teens.

I like the idea of stashing a bunch of euros, if just one pans out then all those 2nd rounders we traded for will be worth it.

Usually big trades involving multiple picks to move up are rare in the NBA.. The idea is teams that may rebuild in the forthcoming years with a superstar they are exploring a trade.. Really the same way the Celtics are now (Rondo, Green)..

If Danny smells blood He will do his best to strike .. Remember he offered three firsts and KO for Love... so we know the way he is looking

Not all that rare.

Huges moves into the top 5 might be rare, but every year there are some first round picks moving for multiple picks.

This year, the Bulls swapped #16, #19, and a 2nd for #11
The Sixers swapped #10, for #13, a second, and a future first
The Hornets swapped #24 for #26, a second, and a future second.

The year before
Utah swapped #14 and #21 to move up #9
The Celtics swapped #16 and 2 future seconds to move up to #13 for Olynyk

There is always movement in the first round. It's mostly in the middle and late thirds but there will opportunites to move around if Ainge wishes to do so.

I wasnt refering to moving up a few spots or a mid to late round pick.. Thinking more top 5-7 where the top level talent is..

Oh, OK, then we are in agreement.

It's just that you repsonded to the poster who was looking to move up into the teens who had already conceeded that it was unlikely to move into the top, so it made it appear that you thought any movement (even into the teens) was unlikely.

Re: 11 draft picks next year
« Reply #29 on: January 30, 2015, 02:36:18 PM »

Offline Mass_1081

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You have to overpay to move up in the lottery, sometimes it works(Aldridge), and sometimes it doesnt(mayo). I predict the C's getting the tenth pick, so it's unlikely they would get into the top three. If they got say the fith pick and NY got three, then maybe they could send another first to move up two spots. I think Okafor and Mundaiy have distance themselves from Russell and Johnson, ANC I think Towns will stay in school.