Is this correct? Because I'd love it to be.
"Minnesota (or will convert to second rounders if outside top 12)"
No way this falls outside of 12. Minn will be back in the lottery next year.
Might be a disconnect here. Not sure why you would love that unless you are reading it differently than I intended.
We are talking about picks, so when I say it will convert to second rounders if outside the top 12, that means the pick is outside the top 12 (protected 1-12). It sounds like you might have thought I meant if Minnesota doesn't finish top 12.
So it is very likely that this pick will convert to 2016 and 2017 second rounders as the top 10 in the West seem pretty locked in.
However, don't sleep on Minnesota. A lot of their issues this year is from having 3 veteran starters injured almost the entire season and giving their young players a lot of burn.
Remember just last season, they picked #13. From that squad they did lose Kevin Love (and Corey Brewer) but have added Wiggins and Lavine (and Thad Young but he might not be around much longer) both who are developing quickly and have seen Dieng and Muhammad improve dramatically over year #1. Add continue improvement from that young core with hopefully healthy seasons from Pekovic, Martin, and Rubio, add in someone like Jahlil Okafor and this team can make a run at a top 10 seed in the West and the #10 seed in the West is likely #18 overall and would be picking #13.
They have Dieng playing some at PF to get him and Pekovic in the lineup at the same time and Okafor I think can play there as well.
A top 8 shortened rotation of Wiggins, Martin, Okafor, Rubio, Pekovic, Dieng, Muhammad, and Lavine is not a bad squad.
Of course this means someone in the current top #10 will need to drop and they all seem pretty set and improving. The most likely is if someone can convince Dragic to leave Phoenix, they may backslide just a bit or one someone is going to have to run into injury issues.
Again, in the West, it is still most likely to convert to 2 second rounders, but it is far from a sure thing.