Author Topic: Celtics already have the talent equivalent of 8 top 10 picks on their roster  (Read 7131 times)

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Offline Alleyoopster

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Below is listed most of players on the Celtics roster. 
Judging only their talent level (not age or any other variable).  Where would each of the following players fit if the draft were held today.  Remember we are comparing relative talent only. 
The numbers indicate the pick value their talent might hold.
 
Brandon Bass    (6-10)
Avery Bradley    (4-10)
Jay Crowder       (12 -15)
Kelly Olynyk        (4-10)
Phil Pressey        (15-20)
Tayshaun Prince   (7-10)
Marcus Smart       (5-7)
Jared Sullinger      (4-7)
Marcus Thornton    (7-11)
Evan Turner           (6-10)
Gerald Wallace    (18-20)
James Young       (10-15)
Tyler Zeller         (5-8)

Offline Alleyoopster

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Sorry, I posted before finishing what I wanted to say.  My point was to question whether the picks we get yield talent levels better than we have now.

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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Not sure I understand your post. Are you saying these players are equivalent to picks A-Z, in terms of how talented they are compared to who will be picked at A-Z? Or the picks they could net us in a trade?

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Offline Chris22

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Sorry, I posted before finishing what I wanted to say.  My point was to question whether the picks we get yield talent levels better than we have now.

I was thinking the same thing the other day.

If we drafted Thornton, Bass, Zeller, and Prince would we be happy?

I think so.


Offline guava_wrench

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Sorry, I posted before finishing what I wanted to say.  My point was to question whether the picks we get yield talent levels better than we have now.

I was thinking the same thing the other day.

If we drafted Thornton, Bass, Zeller, and Prince would we be happy?

I think so.
If we drafted Prince, that would mean that we drafted someone who would be soon retired.

We would be happy if we drafted Thornton or Bass with our second round picks.

Offline guava_wrench

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Below is listed most of players on the Celtics roster. 
Judging only their talent level (not age or any other variable).  Where would each of the following players fit if the draft were held today.  Remember we are comparing relative talent only. 
The numbers indicate the pick value their talent might hold.
 
Brandon Bass    (6-10)
Avery Bradley    (4-10)
Jay Crowder       (12 -15)
Kelly Olynyk        (4-10)
Phil Pressey        (15-20)
Tayshaun Prince   (7-10)
Marcus Smart       (5-7)
Jared Sullinger      (4-7)
Marcus Thornton    (7-11)
Evan Turner           (6-10)
Gerald Wallace    (18-20)
James Young       (10-15)
Tyler Zeller         (5-8)
Uh, age matters. People aren't going to waste a 10 pick on Prince when he will retire soon and when he is already in decline. Kind of a pointless exercise.

Offline GetLucky

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How dare you question the arbitrary value of potential! The allure of possibilities is what keeps us going! We need to all believe that James White can be better than Prime Ray Allen to stop us from jumping into the Charles River!

Offline Depalma2002

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It's kind of hard to separate age out as values start out low, peak, and then decrease towards the end of the career.

So, I'm going to tackle this two ways.

First to look at where each player stands today in career win shares relative to their draft class.

Bass (13)
Bradley (23)
Crowder (16)
Olynyk (5)
Pressey (not drafted. His WS place him around 32)
Prince (5)
Smart (2)
Sullinger (5)
Thornton (16)
Turner (16)
Wallace (8.)
Young (19)
Zeller (9)

The issues with this method is that the WS rank of young players is heavily influenced by opportunity. Those who have remained healthy and had a chance to play get an early advantage on those getting a "redshirt year" or got hurt early. Also, older players such as Prince and Wallace are being compared to a list that has an increasing number of players who are no longer in the league.

The second way is to look at past drafts and see what type of player on average you can expect at a certain slot. There are hits and misses everywhere but on average. These are my rough categories
.
1-2 all stars-superstars
3-5 other foundation pieces (can be your #3)
6-10 other starters
11-15 can be part of a top 8 shortened rotation
16-20 other second-teamers
21-25 Deep Bench
26+  players just taking up a roster spot

So, with these categories, I would place them in (and again, this includes my opinion on a players current role capability. Just because a player is starting on this team doesn't necessarily mean I view them as a starter and just because a player is coming off the bench, doesn't necessarily mean I view them as a bench player. Young players like Smart and Young will be undervalued here because they aren't ready for a bigger role). Anything above 25 I'm just going to consider undrafted.

Bass (16-20)
Bradley (16-20)
Crowder (16-20)
Olynyk (11-15)
Pressey (undrafted)
Prince (undrafted)
Smart (6-10)
Sullinger (6-10)
Thornton (16-20)
Turner (11-15)
Wallace (undrafted)
Young (21-25)
Zeller (16-20)

Again, these are looking at current values not where I would draft them now. This would be in a yearly redraft where there is no future beyond this season.

Offline piercetruth34

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Brandon Bass is better than  Wiggins right now.  Somewhat joking but it's probably closer than people think.  Wiggins is still a young kid makes a lot of mistakes and his upside isn't really there right now. Bass is pretty solid.

I like this thread though. Something I would come up with. Zeller was picked out of the top 10 but has probably raised his value.  He'd probably be an 8-10 pick right now if he were in college and coming out even at his age.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2015, 06:47:30 AM by piercetruth34 »

Offline 2short

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at this point in everyone on our teams career
how many players are quality starters in the nba?

Offline clover

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It's kind of hard to separate age out as values start out low, peak, and then decrease towards the end of the career.

So, I'm going to tackle this two ways.

First to look at where each player stands today in career win shares relative to their draft class.

Bass (13)
Bradley (23)
Crowder (16)
Olynyk (5)
Pressey (not drafted. His WS place him around 32)
Prince (5)
Smart (2)
Sullinger (5)
Thornton (16)
Turner (16)
Wallace (8.)
Young (19)
Zeller (9)

The issues with this method is that the WS rank of young players is heavily influenced by opportunity. Those who have remained healthy and had a chance to play get an early advantage on those getting a "redshirt year" or got hurt early. Also, older players such as Prince and Wallace are being compared to a list that has an increasing number of players who are no longer in the league.

The second way is to look at past drafts and see what type of player on average you can expect at a certain slot. There are hits and misses everywhere but on average. These are my rough categories
.
1-2 all stars-superstars
3-5 other foundation pieces (can be your #3)
6-10 other starters
11-15 can be part of a top 8 shortened rotation
16-20 other second-teamers
21-25 Deep Bench
26+  players just taking up a roster spot

So, with these categories, I would place them in (and again, this includes my opinion on a players current role capability. Just because a player is starting on this team doesn't necessarily mean I view them as a starter and just because a player is coming off the bench, doesn't necessarily mean I view them as a bench player. Young players like Smart and Young will be undervalued here because they aren't ready for a bigger role). Anything above 25 I'm just going to consider undrafted.

Bass (16-20)
Bradley (16-20)
Crowder (16-20)
Olynyk (11-15)
Pressey (undrafted)
Prince (undrafted)
Smart (6-10)
Sullinger (6-10)
Thornton (16-20)
Turner (11-15)
Wallace (undrafted)
Young (21-25)
Zeller (16-20)

Again, these are looking at current values not where I would draft them now. This would be in a yearly redraft where there is no future beyond this season.

Yeah, your talent equivalent of two top-10 picks is probably more accurate.

We love Smart, yet despite all the injuries in his rookie class, he doesn't even crack the top 10 on nba.com's rookie ladder.

Offline jambr380

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I assumed the OP meant if each individual player's respective draft was held today, where would our players be drafted relative to their peers in that draft class? Is that not the case? His draft positions seem to indicate that and it also accounts for age since all players from any draft class have the same NBA experience.

On a related note, I think you need at least a couple of 1-3 level players to really compete. For example, Pierce was drafted #10, but was really top 2. Whereas, somebody like Jeff Green was drafted #5, but was around the 6th best from his draft.

Offline Celts Fan 508

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I assumed the OP meant if each individual player's respective draft was held today, where would our players be drafted relative to their peers in that draft class? Is that not the case? His draft positions seem to indicate that and it also accounts for age since all players from any draft class have the same NBA experience.

On a related note, I think you need at least a couple of 1-3 level players to really compete. For example, Pierce was drafted #10, but was really top 2. Whereas, somebody like Jeff Green was drafted #5, but was around the 6th best from his draft.

That kind of makes sense, the OP had a confusing way of explaining it tho
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Offline mgent

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I assumed the OP meant if each individual player's respective draft was held today, where would our players be drafted relative to their peers in that draft class? Is that not the case? His draft positions seem to indicate that and it also accounts for age since all players from any draft class have the same NBA experience.

On a related note, I think you need at least a couple of 1-3 level players to really compete. For example, Pierce was drafted #10, but was really top 2. Whereas, somebody like Jeff Green was drafted #5, but was around the 6th best from his draft.

That kind of makes sense, the OP had a confusing way of explaining it tho

Yeah I can see how him saying "judged only on talent (not age or any other variable)" could confuse you guys into thinking he believes 35 year olds get picked in the lottery.    ;D
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Offline PhoSita

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Not sure what point youre trying to make exactly, but I think you're overthinking this.

The best question to ask, in my opinion, is where the players on the Celtics roster would be selected if all of the teams in the NBA cleared their rosters and a league-wide draft were held.

Do the Celtics have any players who would be selected in the first three rounds?  Four? How about five?

Top ten picks often don't yield players who make much of an impact right away. But do you believe that Danny Ainge can find a player in that range who can become a "first round" player? I do, especially if he's given a few chances and the resources to move up a few slots if necessary.
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