Author Topic: Evaluating the progress of an NBA scorer  (Read 2343 times)

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Evaluating the progress of an NBA scorer
« on: January 27, 2015, 06:58:23 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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Just some fun with numbers.  I downloaded historical data and ran a couple queries on it to see how players usually progress to being 20 point scorers.

Since the 3 point era began in 1979, there have been 168 players who averaged 20 ppg.

15 (9%), did it their first year in the league.  By their 2nd year in the league, 56 (33%) of the players who would eventually become 20 points scorers had already done it.  By their 3rd year in the league, 91 (54%).

13 players scored 20 in each of their first 3 seasons.


x axis is which season

If you haven't scored 20 by your 4th year in the league, it probably isn't happening.

I downloaded this from basketball-reference and I can't attest to the accuracy, but it's probably good.

Re: Evaluating the progress of an NBA scorer
« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2015, 07:29:45 PM »

Offline marlon.oddo

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Hey, Pick-

you finally made a good post.  And you actually found a useful graphic.

I would use this graphic to make the point that AB is not our long term answer at SG and therefore we should trade him, although that isn't a priority by the deadline.  I have a similar concern about Sully and also about Smart, but we have a way too small sample size on Smart.

I made this same point multiple times in the Rondo arguments, because most franchises are not built around players who are not 20+ point scorers.

Re: Evaluating the progress of an NBA scorer
« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2015, 07:35:25 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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Also, if you want a 20ppg scorer, you should probably look for guys who scored 20 in college (duh).  Among the NBA's current leading scorers:



marlon - that's not needed

Re: Evaluating the progress of an NBA scorer
« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2015, 07:49:12 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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PnR, good thread. thanks for the info. it raises a question for me. what about other scorers, not just the infrequent 20 points a game players. (only 168 since 1979? wow.)

what is the pattern followed by most nba players? do they follow the same pattern shown above? or do most of them stay flat? since almost every every celtic player on the team now will not be a 20 point/game guy, it would be nice to see projections that shed light on folks such as smart.

but then, i suppose it makes a big difference on the TYPE of scorer too. do they score by 3 pointers? drive to basket? put backs? etc.

for your second point, the counter question would be - of the 20 point/game college players drafted by the nba, what did they average as pros?
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Re: Evaluating the progress of an NBA scorer
« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2015, 08:02:26 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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PnR, good thread. thanks for the info. it raises a question for me. what about other scorers, not just the infrequent 20 points a game players. (only 168 since 1979? wow.)

what is the pattern followed by most nba players? do they follow the same pattern shown above? or do most of them stay flat? since almost every every celtic player on the team now will not be a 20 point/game guy, it would be nice to see projections that shed light on folks such as smart.

but then, i suppose it makes a big difference on the TYPE of scorer too. do they score by 3 pointers? drive to basket? put backs? etc.

for your second point, the counter question would be - of the 20 point/game college players drafted by the nba, what did they average as pros?
Both good questions.  It's difficult to generalize the entire league because there are so many specialty roles. I'll run the numbers and see what it looks like.

The second question is especially good, but I haven't found a place to download all college bball history.

Re: Evaluating the progress of an NBA scorer
« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2015, 08:37:52 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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Also, if you want a 20ppg scorer, you should probably look for guys who scored 20 in college (duh).  Among the NBA's current leading scorers:



marlon - that's not needed

You'd think that that would be the case, but it's not always true.  Some of the best scorers in college never even get drafted today, lol, and those who are, if they're not a one-and-done, aren't looked upon as a future start because heaven forbid that a guy should play 4 years of college basketball, lol. ;D 

Don't get me wrong - I get what you're saying, it's just that I don't think that it's always the case.  Just look at guys like Adam Morrison, Lester Hudson, Freeman Williams, Luke Babbitt, Jimmer Fredette, Wayne Simien, Aubrey Coleman, Michael Smith, Rodney Stuckey, Jose Barea, Dominique Jones, Toney Douglas, Gary Neal, Jordan Crawford, Marshon Brooks, Landry Fields, OJ Mayo, Michael Beasley, JJ Redick, etc.  Shall I go on, lol? ;D  I mean, some of these guys became at least serviceable NBA players, but none of them could ever be considered as a star, let alone as a cornerstone of a franchise.  That's all I'm saying.

Re: Evaluating the progress of an NBA scorer
« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2015, 09:02:53 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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Also, if you want a 20ppg scorer, you should probably look for guys who scored 20 in college (duh).  Among the NBA's current leading scorers:



marlon - that's not needed

You'd think that that would be the case, but it's not always true.  Some of the best scorers in college never even get drafted today, lol, and those who are, if they're not a one-and-done, aren't looked upon as a future start because heaven forbid that a guy should play 4 years of college basketball, lol. ;D 

Don't get me wrong - I get what you're saying, it's just that I don't think that it's always the case.  Just look at guys like Adam Morrison, Lester Hudson, Freeman Williams, Luke Babbitt, Jimmer Fredette, Wayne Simien, Aubrey Coleman, Michael Smith, Rodney Stuckey, Jose Barea, Dominique Jones, Toney Douglas, Gary Neal, Jordan Crawford, Marshon Brooks, Landry Fields, OJ Mayo, Michael Beasley, JJ Redick, etc.  Shall I go on, lol? ;D  I mean, some of these guys became at least serviceable NBA players, but none of them could ever be considered as a star, let alone as a cornerstone of a franchise.  That's all I'm saying.
You have to come from the other direction.

1. pick a guy you think will be a prolific NBA scorer
2. Did he score 20 in college?  If no, drop him

Starting with 20 point college scorers is bound to be a wasteland of small-conference scoring specialists.

Re: Evaluating the progress of an NBA scorer
« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2015, 12:33:18 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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Also, if you want a 20ppg scorer, you should probably look for guys who scored 20 in college (duh).  Among the NBA's current leading scorers:



marlon - that's not needed

You'd think that that would be the case, but it's not always true.  Some of the best scorers in college never even get drafted today, lol, and those who are, if they're not a one-and-done, aren't looked upon as a future start because heaven forbid that a guy should play 4 years of college basketball, lol. ;D 

Don't get me wrong - I get what you're saying, it's just that I don't think that it's always the case.  Just look at guys like Adam Morrison, Lester Hudson, Freeman Williams, Luke Babbitt, Jimmer Fredette, Wayne Simien, Aubrey Coleman, Michael Smith, Rodney Stuckey, Jose Barea, Dominique Jones, Toney Douglas, Gary Neal, Jordan Crawford, Marshon Brooks, Landry Fields, OJ Mayo, Michael Beasley, JJ Redick, etc.  Shall I go on, lol? ;D  I mean, some of these guys became at least serviceable NBA players, but none of them could ever be considered as a star, let alone as a cornerstone of a franchise.  That's all I'm saying.
You have to come from the other direction.

1. pick a guy you think will be a prolific NBA scorer
2. Did he score 20 in college?  If no, drop him

Starting with 20 point college scorers is bound to be a wasteland of small-conference scoring specialists.

Actually, that's not what I'm saying at all.  What I am saying is that just because you can score 20+ ppg in college doesn't mean that it will translate to the pros, because there are plenty of other factors to consider.  Look at Jimmer Fredette.  Many people were comparing him to Mark Price, imo because he's a small white guy who is also a great shooter, when in reality he's really more like Eddie House, because he doesn't have Price's handle, passing ability, or quickness and overall speed, obviously.  I'm not sure if that's a racist thing by only comparing white players to other white players, but it still doesn't excuse the fact that his game just didn't translate to the NBA.  At least not in the way it was expected to by the various people who wrote that he would be like Price.

Re: Evaluating the progress of an NBA scorer
« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2015, 12:44:52 AM »

Offline PickNRoll

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It's not racist.  And i think i addressed your exact point already.

It isn't useful to look at all the 20 point scorers in college.  85% of them won't even declare for the draft.  However, it is useful, once you've found a  scoring prospect you like, to ask "did he score 20 a game in college?".  If he didn't, he probably won't do it in the pros either.

Re: Evaluating the progress of an NBA scorer
« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2015, 02:25:59 AM »

Offline BballTim

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Also, if you want a 20ppg scorer, you should probably look for guys who scored 20 in college (duh).  Among the NBA's current leading scorers:



marlon - that's not needed

You'd think that that would be the case, but it's not always true.  Some of the best scorers in college never even get drafted today, lol, and those who are, if they're not a one-and-done, aren't looked upon as a future start because heaven forbid that a guy should play 4 years of college basketball, lol. ;D 

Don't get me wrong - I get what you're saying, it's just that I don't think that it's always the case.  Just look at guys like Adam Morrison, Lester Hudson, Freeman Williams, Luke Babbitt, Jimmer Fredette, Wayne Simien, Aubrey Coleman, Michael Smith, Rodney Stuckey, Jose Barea, Dominique Jones, Toney Douglas, Gary Neal, Jordan Crawford, Marshon Brooks, Landry Fields, OJ Mayo, Michael Beasley, JJ Redick, etc.  Shall I go on, lol? ;D  I mean, some of these guys became at least serviceable NBA players, but none of them could ever be considered as a star, let alone as a cornerstone of a franchise.  That's all I'm saying.
You have to come from the other direction.

1. pick a guy you think will be a prolific NBA scorer
2. Did he score 20 in college?  If no, drop him


  Not sure how you arrived at "id he score 20 in college?  If no, drop him". You list 14 top scorers. Half of them scored 20 a game in college, the other half didn't. I don't see why those numbers would lead to your conclusion.

Re: Evaluating the progress of an NBA scorer
« Reply #10 on: January 28, 2015, 02:41:41 AM »

Offline guava_wrench

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  Not sure how you arrived at "id he score 20 in college?  If no, drop him". You list 14 top scorers. Half of them scored 20 a game in college, the other half didn't. I don't see why those numbers would lead to your conclusion.
Rather disappointing to see someone post stats and at the same time make claims that contradict the stats they post.

Re: Evaluating the progress of an NBA scorer
« Reply #11 on: January 28, 2015, 06:42:27 AM »

Offline PickNRoll

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Also, if you want a 20ppg scorer, you should probably look for guys who scored 20 in college (duh).  Among the NBA's current leading scorers:



marlon - that's not needed

You'd think that that would be the case, but it's not always true.  Some of the best scorers in college never even get drafted today, lol, and those who are, if they're not a one-and-done, aren't looked upon as a future start because heaven forbid that a guy should play 4 years of college basketball, lol. ;D 

Don't get me wrong - I get what you're saying, it's just that I don't think that it's always the case.  Just look at guys like Adam Morrison, Lester Hudson, Freeman Williams, Luke Babbitt, Jimmer Fredette, Wayne Simien, Aubrey Coleman, Michael Smith, Rodney Stuckey, Jose Barea, Dominique Jones, Toney Douglas, Gary Neal, Jordan Crawford, Marshon Brooks, Landry Fields, OJ Mayo, Michael Beasley, JJ Redick, etc.  Shall I go on, lol? ;D  I mean, some of these guys became at least serviceable NBA players, but none of them could ever be considered as a star, let alone as a cornerstone of a franchise.  That's all I'm saying.
You have to come from the other direction.

1. pick a guy you think will be a prolific NBA scorer
2. Did he score 20 in college?  If no, drop him


  Not sure how you arrived at "id he score 20 in college?  If no, drop him". You list 14 top scorers. Half of them scored 20 a game in college, the other half didn't. I don't see why those numbers would lead to your conclusion.
I should have been more clear.  3 of the guys were one and done in college and near locks to be 20 point scorers if they'd stuck around.  Also, I meant that that it's improbable that a guy would be a 20 point NBA scorer if he wasn't a prolific scorer in college.  If you were trying to find 1 20 point scorer from the college ranks, this would be a pretty good criteria for elimination.  If a guy scored 12 in college, it's unlikely he'll jump up in the pros.  But I only looked at 14 guys.