The disappearing Celtics tank threads

[celticsclay]

I have for the last month or so (mainly since the move of rondo) been writing updates of how the other teams were doing in battle for high lottery picks. In all of these threads the consensus seemed to be that the Celtics were clearly the 4th worst team, with an occasional poster saying they were the 5th worst.

I am wondering on the heels of our 3 win (so far west coast trip) and now past the halfway point of the season if posters are starting to change their tunes.

We are now up to 16 wins and if the season ended today would have the 8th or 9th pick depending on a coin flip with Sacramento.

While we have started to play much better ball, other teams are starting to do the opposite.

Sacramento is in a free fall at the moment having lost 6 in a row and 8 of 10. In my opinion they are now a real threat to sink deep into the lottery, particularly with Cousins becoming increasingly petulant and some of their starters having nagging injuries.

Denver- They have also really changed their season outlook in the last few weeks having lost 7 straight and having their best player arrested for a DUI the morning before a game. More than other team these have a lot of tradeable players for other teams as it becomes apparent they are not playoff ready (affalo, chandler, faried, lawson)

Orlando - I thought they had turned the corner a few weeks ago with Oladipo and their rookie pg playing well. They have also lost 6 straight and the majority have not been close.

Lakers - They have lost 8 straight. Kobe is done for the year, Nick Young is injured and arguing with the coach and their lineups are increasingly pathetic. Whoever argued their roster had more talent than ours must be in hiding.

Indiana Just snapped a 7 game losing streak. As much as I have expected them to turn things around the fact is they have been worse as the season has gone on and they have gotten more players back. It is hard to believe that George is the difference between a 50 win team and a team 16 games under .500, but right now they suck.

I must say I have a really hard gauging where the celtics are going at the moment, but at the very least it seems like there is definitely no clear cut path to a top 5 pick right now and the other bad teams are currently losing at an epic rate. (The 5 teams I listed are 1-34 in last 35 games)

[KeepRondo]

Good post. I think unless we start trying to develop James Young, or we trade players like Bass, then we are in the exact position you described. It's just too hard to figure this team out yet. We could get the 12th pick or we could get the 4th if we bottom out again.

[nickagneta]

Cleveland won the lottery with 33 wins last year.

[obnoxiousmime]

Cleveland won the lottery with 33 wins last year.

You're right, we should be hoping for that awesome 1.7% chance at the top pick. Because there's no difference between that and say, 10-25% if you're in the bottom 5.

Not to mention your record dictates where you pick after the top three so it still matters.

[celticsclay]

Cleveland won the lottery with 33 wins last year.

I am well aware.. that is really hardly related to the post. I would be more curious how often there have been 5 teams that went on a combined 1-34 stretch. That is insane and warrants discussion.

[nickagneta]

Cleveland won the lottery with 33 wins last year.

I am well aware.. that is really hardly related to the post. I would be more curious how often there have been 5 teams that went on a combined 1-34 stretch. That is insane and warrants discussion.

Of course it is relevant. You are wondering whether the Celtics are too good a team to get low enough to get what you consider to be a good lottery pick next year. But last year the team with the 9th worse record and 33 wins(a win total the Celtics will probably not exceed) won the lottery and got the first pick. Over the last 7 years the 8th or 9th worst team has won the first pick three times. Over the last ten years teams that win the lottery average around 30 wins.

The C's had a few fortunate circumstances lead to them winning 3 of 4. So has just about every bad team in the league. Then they go back to being bad again. The C's are going to be bad this year. How bad, who knows. But you just have to look back to know that not ending up with a top 2 or 3 worst record in the league doesn't mean you can't get lucky by winning the lottery or drafting a superstar that some teams let slip to you if you do draft in the 6-10 area.

[mctyson]

Cleveland won the lottery with 33 wins last year.

You're right, we should be hoping for that awesome 1.7% chance at the top pick. Because there's no difference between that and say, 10-25% if you're in the bottom 5.

Not to mention your record dictates where you pick after the top three so it still matters.

This team is not going to be in the bottom 5 record-wise this year.  If they keep the same win % for the rest of the year most likely will be in the 8-10 range. 

With both Charlotte and Brooklyn at severe risks of cratering, it's very likely that Boston finishes at worst 9th in Eastern conference.

[Evantime34]

I was one of the people who thought we were the 5th-6th worst team in the league. I was assuming that they would find a way to trade/buy out the expiring veterans like Bass, Thornton and Prince. If those moves happen I think we sink like a stone.

If not I think we will slide into the last spot in the playoffs then get swept by the Hawks.

[Eja117]

The players don't want to tank. They don't want to lose their jobs to a superior player. What incentive does Pressey have to tank? Or Zeller? Or KO? Or James Young? Or Evan Turner? Or Avery B? These guys want to play and start. Not tank.

[SHAQATTACK]

Yup players and good coaches ( one you'd want during good times). Are n't tankers .


Only some of those GM / Coach combos who control much of the organization personal , draft , and coach can possibly get away with some tanking .


I see tanking at the end of the season...after the season is decided far as playoffs go .

People don't want to pay to see poor basketball played on purpose.

[Ed Hollison]

This is an excellent thread, because we're finally discussing an important reality: There are so many bad teams -- worse than last year, even -- that even if the Celtics completely gut the roster beyond what they've done already, there's no guarantee we'll get a pick at 4-6. I think it's more likely, with the roster we have now, that we end up in the 7-10 range.

Is it worth melting down the roster, and dragging the remaining players through the humiliation and morale-destroying experience of playing for a franchise that's trying to lose on purpose? The reward for such an experience may only be a few more spots in the draft, maybe the difference between 15 and 10.

No reason not to at least go for the playoffs. Let the young players develop in a winning culture, buildup the trade value of the guys you already have, and send a strong signal to potential free agents and trade targets with all the cap space and assets we have.

[esel1000]

Cleveland won the lottery with 33 wins last year.

I am well aware.. that is really hardly related to the post. I would be more curious how often there have been 5 teams that went on a combined 1-34 stretch. That is insane and warrants discussion.

This list doesn't even include New York or the Wolves or the Sixers, three epic losers... wow

[GreenFaith1819]

Good - may the tank threads continue to go:



Let's build on the last few games and enjoy a competitive season.

[PAOBoston]

The C's are in a 4 way tie for 6the fewest wins at 16 at the moment. Yes, they have won 3 games recently. They still have a to finish with a high draft pick. The lottery is a lottery for a reason. Go look at the past winners and top of the lottery finishers. It never works out like the record indicates. Let the team play and thinga will work themselves out. I care about our players getting better. They seem to be getting better. At the end, they will still lose a lot of games and be a lottery team.

[mef730]

This is an excellent thread, because we're finally discussing an important reality: There are so many bad teams -- worse than last year, even -- that even if the Celtics completely gut the roster beyond what they've done already, there's no guarantee we'll get a pick at 4-6. I think it's more likely, with the roster we have now, that we end up in the 7-10 range.

Is it worth melting down the roster, and dragging the remaining players through the humiliation and morale-destroying experience of playing for a franchise that's trying to lose on purpose? The reward for such an experience may only be a few more spots in the draft, maybe the difference between 15 and 10.

No reason not to at least go for the playoffs. Let the young players develop in a winning culture, buildup the trade value of the guys you already have, and send a strong signal to potential free agents and trade targets with all the cap space and assets we have.

A couple of weeks ago, I would have completely disagreed with you.  Now, not so much.  The "younger" core appears to be better than expected.  Smart is definitely turning out to be better than I would have thought.  And this is not a group of players that has been together forever; best as I can tell, the one who has been on the Celtics the longest is Avery Bradley.  Let's let them get some wins.  It's fun to go to games and not secretly be rooting for them to lose.

The bigger issue that I have regarding how bad the East looks is that so many people seem to be counting on a huge pick from Brooklyn next year.  As bad as they are going to be, much of the East is still going to be worse.

Mike