Olynyk is a problem

[BballTim]

Ainge traded up for him. Consider that when you're gauging how you feel about our future. I do not know  a single person, not even a friend that was at Gonzaga when Olynyk was there, who would've traded up into the lottery for him. I almost thought it was a joke. I (and every one I know) would say the same about the JJJ, Moore, and Melo picks. He's a total scrub.

Can not wait till this "rebuild" is deemed a failure and Ainge is gone.

  If you think Moore was bad for a #55 pick you don't know much about the nba draft.

[greg683x]

To  lump Sully in with Olynyk is absurd.

How so, both are relatively skilled on offense.   Both are limited athletically and both are bad on defense.   Sully is the more productive of the two.    They both are nifty passers with high IQs.  Both were good college players.   Both are prone to rookie type slumps.

I would argue, successfully, that Sully is better on offense, defense, passing, bball IQ, college player, and less prone to slumps. Sully's slumps were more of the minutes juggling, results based variety than Kelly's this year IMO. Just my two cents . I know KO is a first round draft pick and fun to follow on Instagram but I really think he takes more off the table than he adds to it

TP for the great username

[greg683x]

i was waiting for this particular knee-jerk thread.
OP is dead wrong.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olynyke01.html
c's have a +1.5 points per 100 possessions differential with KO on the floor. they have a terrible -6 points per 100 possessions differential without him.
so ultimately the boston celtics have a +7.5 points per possession differential with KO than without.

Not only dead wrong from a stats perspective but from an opinion perspective.  KO is one of, if not the most, talented players on the roster.  With Rondo gone, he might be the best passer on the team.

If you really believe he's the most talented on our roster that's more of an indictment on how bad this team is than a compliment to his skills

[greg683x]

I just joined CB to post on this thread as I feel so strongly about it.

Kelly has regressed this year, and even worse, his body language on the floor is as though he does not understand just how many mistakes he is making.

To  lump Sully in with Olynyk is absurd. There may be a number of deeper statistics ie WAR that can talk you into thinking Kelly is a legit player - but make no mistake he is the worst player who has received legitimate minutes on this team. The positive results the team has experienced as a result of Bass being a starter and Zeller taking the big man rotation spot off bench is legit.

I dont think he's regressed.  If you take out those several games that didnt matter at the end of last year he's pretty much playing the same.  The problem everyone is bc of those few games at the end of the year everyone thought he was about to turn some huge corner

[Rosco917]

I could tell by the subject, this was going to cause a flurry of activity.

Kelly is not a bad player, his skills are small man skills. He someday may be a valuable NBA contributor. When the situation calls for a 7' guy that can stretch the floor, he will get minutes. He will never be a starter on a good team that stress any kind of defense. His defensive limitations are well documented by everyone.

As stated by a few, we have two power forwards that are limited defensively, while both having similar offensive qualities. It makes no sense to keep both. A team that is a contender should have different looks on both sides of the ball. (or a young KG)

IMO Sully is the better balanced of the two, just by the fact that he has some big man skills. He likes it down low and has an impact when he's there. That said, he has deficiencies of his own to deal with, and they should be addressed before he signs his next contract.

[jambr380]

I am a little surprised how many people are jumping on KO. I realize this west coast trip is going pretty well, but beating Portland without Aldridge, Lopez, and Batum for half of the game and Denver without Lawson really isn't that impressive. The team spent the first half of the year walking on egg shells, not knowing who was being traded and who was staying.

Now we have veterans like Prince and Bass stepping up and settling things out a bit and Turner, Bradley, and Sully playing better than they have all season.

KO just went out at a bad time (for him). Does anybody honestly think we would be winless without him on this trip. He has shown to a have total plus effect all season, why would that change now? KO may not be the next Dirk, but he doesn't suck and he still has plenty left to offer and learn.

[tstorey_97]

It's difficult to defend Olynyk's game at this time.

He is not a center, never has been and never will be.
Against a NBA starting PF, it's a mismatch.
We are spilling ink on a reputable "6th man" candidate here.

Only in this season, where we have 12 "really good bench players" who have played together for about what? Three weeks? would we care about Olynyk beyond...can he make a couple of threes and stay alive if our "real" power forward fouls out. I have watched all his games since he came here and the Stevens system "likes it" when Olynyk is on the floor because it exploits his passing ability. 

His only true assets at this time are top of the line shooting form, good hustle and probably one of the best passers on the team. In a real world scenario, with these assets? Olynyk should be the third string point guard ahead of Pressey.

[clintonwalker]

so, now that bradley is playing well, olly becomes the new cb whipping boy? 

who will it be next week?

It's still bradley. He continues to have the turnovers of a 6 year old.

[KingofDaPlayazBall]

Its complete absurd to compare Olynyk's defense to Sullingers.  Sullinger might have limitations on defense but he is overall solid, he is strong enough to hold his position, and mentally makes the right rotations. 

Olynyk on the other hand might be the worst defensive liability known to the NBA.  We are talking about a 7 footer with 0 interior presence.  Stop making excuses about him guarding the wrong position, he has guarded power forwards in many occasions, the result is often the opponents blowing right by him in face up situations, many pfs will body KO in the paint too.

Offensively, Olynyk really isnt anything special.  No post moves, not a strong finisher, and turnover prone.  3pt shooting the same % as Smart while making less.  OLYNYK MIGHT BE THE BEST PASSER ON THE TEAM???  THE DUDE AVG 1.7 AST PER GAME.  like cmon, dude is trash

[spikelovetheCelts]

KO

Got the skills and IQ

He needs to put away the kid gloves ......embrace his man card and play hard in the paint


KO needs to go to the Akeem school of big men and learn some pistons moved and foot work ASAP

KO will be a good player in this league. A great 6 man type. He should not start unless you have a true rim protector. Like Davis and Anderson in NO.  Not many 7 footer can shoot like him. Watching will help him Learn. Going to post School is a must for him too. I wish McHale would work with him, too.

[Celtics18]

Why are none of the Olynyk detractors responding to the numbers that say the team has been better both defensively and offensively when he is on the floor than when he isn't?

I understand that these numbers aren't fool proof, and that there are a lot of factors that go in to a given player's +/-.  Yet, it seems hard to jibe Kelly's numbers with how truly awful defensively many are claiming that he is. 

His steal numbers and  block numbers are decent, as well.  He makes plays in the lane. 

It seems to me that the big problem with Kelly's game is that he doesn't always pass the eye test.  The one thing that is glaring is that he falls over too much.  It sounds silly even writing it, but that's my observation.  The kid keeps falling down.  It doesn't look good.  I'm guessing that in the eyes of many fans, seeing this goofy, long haired, short armed young man flail on the ground during a game can mentally negate a lot of the good things he does on the floor.  I can think of instances where I've seen him make positive defensive plays, yet end up on his back at the end of it, which just makes him look kind of pathetic. 

I never really thought this would be a legitimate concern about an NBA player, but staying on his feet is Kelly Olynyk's biggest problem. 

If he would just stop falling over so much, I think it would change a lot of people's minds about him. 

[Bingbangbarros]

Ainge traded up for him. Consider that when you're gauging how you feel about our future. I do not know  a single person, not even a friend that was at Gonzaga when Olynyk was there, who would've traded up into the lottery for him. I almost thought it was a joke. I (and every one I know) would say the same about the JJJ, Moore, and Melo picks. He's a total scrub.

Can not wait till this "rebuild" is deemed a failure and Ainge is gone.

there are few if any players picked after the "busts" you mentioned which would have moved the needle for this franchise. look at the draft boards if you don't believe me.


KO was 13th in a poor draft class. we gave up only a 2nd-rounder to trade up. he still has a lot of upside, and has performed well ahead of where he was drafted.

moore was a second-rounder who is actually OK now on chicago. the fact that he's still in the NBA at all after being a late-2nd rounder says it was a good pick.

JJJ and melo were bad picks, but who would you have picked instead? look at the draft board for those years, there was very little talent late in the first round and beyond.

 IMO the best players taken after JJJ was jimmy butler (30th, 2011) and chandler parsons (38th, 2011). not much else there.

best pick after melo was draymond green (35th, 2012), the rest of that late draft was trash.

the only draft where i think ainge really did poorly was 2008 with JR giddens. ainge missed pekovic (31st), chalmers (34th), deandre jordan (35th), asik (36th), and mbah a moute (37th).
but then again, a ton of other teams missed on those guys too, they are all flawed players with a couple very strong skills. we already had a then-healthy defensive center in perk, as well asa healthy powe, big baby, and KG. bigs were not a need then, and chalmers and mbah a moute wouldn't have made much of a difference then or now.

the bottom line is that, in those 3 drafts where ainge "failed" there was little available talent, and it's easy in retrospect to cherry-pick the best of them from a list; not so easy to do it beforehand.

Agree 100% with this. However, I wasn't a fan of the JJ and Melo picks at the time. I just felt that they didn't project to be good NBA players. But these are all LATE picks. If Ainge wiffed on lottery picks like you see around the league then I would be calling for his head.

BTW, totally expecting a negative Olynyk thread. In my opinion, we are better with KO playing. And if he got more shots in the offense we would be even better.  He's not a great defender but he can't catch a break either with the officials. He's still learning and hopefully he puts it together but right now I think he's a currently a solid player. He gets a bad rap because some people can't get over the fact that he's not a beast down low or something like that. Well, thats not everyone's game.

[danglertx]

I like to think I know a lot about basketball.  I love football, but I didn't play it so I watch it like I think most people watch basketball, they follow the ball and only see the end where KO's man is scoring.

I watch basketball like someone who played it for 6-8 hours a day through high school and when I wasn't playing it, I was watching it.  And when I wasn't watching it I was watching coaching instructional tapes of it.

KO's biggest problem defensively is that he tries to help too much.  Sometimes you have to just let your teammate try to defend his man on his own.  Smart did this last night against Utah and got burnt.  Usually Smart is incredible at help defense and getting back to his man but KO can't do what Smart can as a smaller guy.  But maybe this is the way he is being coached.  Maybe Steven's philosophy is help and make them make the pass and open shot. 

I can say though, if you just watch KO on defense he is a high BBIQ guy.  He constantly sags off his guy to guard cutters, opens the door for guards on picks, helps out from the weak side more than Bass or Sully for sure, and gives great effort even though he lacks some things athletically.  He is terrible at blocking out.  Now he blocks out almost every time and is incredibly physical doing it which he has started getting away with, but it is that face guarding blocking out that doesn't let him get the rebounds.  He has to learn to block out with his rump.  Maybe it is because he gets pushed around from behind and he needs some bulk and to get stronger but his face guarding just means someone else has to get the ball, even if it comes right to him.

Offensively, I don't think I've ever seen a player not want to shoot more, who was actually good at it.  He can't get in a rhythm because he shoots so seldom.  This is OK if we have some chuckers, and hey we do.  So his good passing, moving the ball from side to side, and willingness to set good tough picks is what I think make his +/- good.

[ScoobyDoo]

I don't think Olynyk is a problem at all for this team. He works hard on both ends, is a unusually skilled seven footer on the offensive end and he has made fairly dramatic improvement on his body from year one to year two. I assume he will improve his strength once again this off season.

If you expect him to be a defensive anchor he will never be that. But if you pair him on the floor with a good defensive unit you can help hide some of his weaknesses.

He can be a very good offensive spark plug, just like other guys are defensive and/or 3 & D specialized spark plugs for their team. He may doesn't have to be a cornerstone player to be valuable to our team - he can be a piece, 6th or 7th man - pair him with strong defenders in the front court.
 

[Megalodon]

i was waiting for this particular knee-jerk thread.
OP is dead wrong.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olynyke01.html
c's have a +1.5 points per 100 possessions differential with KO on the floor. they have a terrible -6 points per 100 possessions differential without him.
so ultimately the boston celtics have a +7.5 points per possession differential with KO than without.

Not only dead wrong from a stats perspective but from an opinion perspective.  KO is one of, if not the most, talented players on the roster.  With Rondo gone, he might be the best passer on the team.

If you believe in +/- (a terrible statistic btw) then here is a breakdown from nba.com/stats (See attachment). Olynyk's +/- is only good when we are 15 or more points down - and it skews overall +/-. Just look at magnitudes - we are +6.3 with him if we are down 20 points, but actually worse with him on a court in close games or won ones. Therefore, his positive +/- is a reflection of beating on scrubs in 4th quarter when game is already lost. At that point, you can put me on a floor and result would not change. However, as soon as game becomes close or won he drags the team down as indicated by negative +/-.  +/- is horribly biased and should not be taken at face value, but even a simple breakdown shows how exactly Olynyk hurts statistically.