Author Topic: #DeflateGate (Court of Appeals Reinstates Suspension)  (Read 596365 times)

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Re: #DeflateGate
« Reply #2085 on: August 04, 2015, 07:24:56 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Anybody that believes that Brady didn't tell those guys to deflate those footballs is a moron. End of story.

Have they even determined if the balls were deflated?

Exactly.  At this point, if you've read all of the evidence that's come out and decided that the balls were definitely, 100% deflated below the legal level in that game on purpose, well, you may not be a moron, but I can think of some negative things to say about you pretty easily.
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Re: #DeflateGate
« Reply #2086 on: August 04, 2015, 07:34:07 PM »

Offline BballTim

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"the margin of error in the measurements will be larger than what they're trying to measure".

Clearly that was going to be the case, and obviously that's what happened.

You don't think that's a pretty serious problem when the NFL seeks to hand down one of the most severe punishments in the history of the league (picks + fines + suspension) for a violation it doesn't have the ability to prove even happened?

  The pats were accused  of doctoring the air pressure in their footballs by another team, and the (poorly done) pressure measurements seem to at least somewhat support the claim. Further investigation (which was probably warranted) uncovered some fairly incriminating texts.

  But the punishments do seem to be exceptionally severe for the infraction.

This is wrong

  It's obviously not wrong. If they'd measured the balls at halftime and the pats PSIs were within the allowable limits then it would have been unlikely that anything untoward happened. Measuring the balls and finding many of the pats balls below the allowable limit and none of the colts balls below the limit clearly seems to somewhat support the claim.

Ummm....except for the part in the Wells Report that showed 3 out the 4 balls from the Colts measured were under the minimum according to one gauge at halftime.

  I stand corrected. One of the colts balls was within range on both measurements, the other three were within range on one measurement. None of the pats balls were within range on either measurement. One of the 8 colts measurements was lower than the highest measurement of a pats ball, and 21 of the 22 measurements of the pats balls were lower than the lowest measurement for the colts balls. So that correction still doesn't really exonerate the pats.

Unless, the colts balls started at 13 psi instead of 12.5 as was WIDELY reported including by Walt Anderson in the wells report

  Do the math, the difference in the average between the pats and colts balls at halftime is probably well over that .5 psi starting difference.


The reasons for that has already been explained by Gas Law which indicated by the nature of them being measured after the Patriot's ones [and whatever time passed between them] was a factor for the increased PSI.

Yup.  There certainly can be a scientific explanation for it & this was also addressed in the Wells Report.   Up to 0.7 PSI in 13 minutes.

  For the record, I'm not oblivious to the ideal gas law, and I didn't need a refresher course in it when this story came out. I'm saying that they didn't take enough measurements to measure the effect of it they didn't take all of the measurements they'd want to, and the measuring they did wasn't accurate enough, they didn't even know (apparently) which gauge they used for some of the measurements. On top of that, they don't know how well the balls held their air pressure. Did I miss anything?

  The only things you can prove or disprove based on that are things that are so far from what was measured that the accumulation of all of the errors aren't great enough to affect them.

1st para sounds like an excellent endorsement for why there should have been absolutely NO punishment, and a promise to tighten up the process for next year (i.e., next BB rule).

CB

  I think that all of the texts that we've heard about were more of an issue for the pats than the measurements were.

yes, but without a "crime", the texts are meaningless

CB

  The texts at least arguably imply that a "crime" was committed.

Re: #DeflateGate
« Reply #2087 on: August 04, 2015, 07:36:43 PM »

Offline BballTim

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  Note it says the Wells report is LIKELY incorrect.
You mean, like, more probably than not?  ;D

  Sure, more probably than not, which probably isn't enough to preclude the investigation which followed.
The investigation  didn't "follow" -- this is the product of said investigation. However, the (obvious) level of uncertainly should have been enough to preclude the way the whole affair was handled, as a minimum.

  Sorry. Apparently I should have specified "the part of the investigation that followed".

Re: #DeflateGate
« Reply #2088 on: August 04, 2015, 07:43:32 PM »

Offline BballTim

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I'm saying that they didn't take enough measurements to measure the effect of it they didn't take all of the measurements they'd want to, and the measuring they did wasn't accurate enough, they didn't even know (apparently) which gauge they used for some of the measurements. On top of that, they don't know how well the balls held their air pressure. Did I miss anything?

I am actually an engineer with a background working with applications of the ideal gas law (and some other gas laws), and there are a couple of things beyond the uncertainties that BballTim has listed.  I am being a total devil's advocate to refute the NFL because I don't believe them anymore.  I don't know what happened but I enjoy trying to shoot down the NFL's case (which isn't hard because it has a lot of holes).

The first has nothing to do with gases but when leather gets wet, it relaxes or stretches a little.  All the balls would have a different level of moisture content at the time of being measured and the leather would be different in every ball.  This doesn't necessarily favor the Pats but their balls would have been a little wetter when tested at halftime than the Colts balls which had a little longer to dry.  This is not a big difference but we are talking about fractions of psi.  We are talking about 0.5 psi out of a total absolute pressure of about 27 psi or 2% so something small can be making the difference in these measurements

The other thing that can make a difference is that as balls are pumped up, the air inside gets hotter.  The pump takes air at 0 psig (14.7 psia or absolute pressure) and compresses it to say 13 psig (27.7 psia) so that it can go through the needle and into the ball.  This small amount of air will be hot per the ideal gas law and will mix with the cooler air already in the ball.  So if the refs added a little air to the Pat's balls, the air in the ball at that moment would be a little hotter than equilibrium (room air) and the cooling effect would reduce the pressure even more.

If the Refs took a little air out of the Colts balls, the air in the balls is expanded a little and cooled a little, reducing its change in temperature and resulting change in pressure.  This type of thing could contribute to the fact that the Pat's balls lost more air pressure than the Colts.  I say "could" because I have never seen a description of what the refs did with the balls before the game.

And my final thought (for now anyway) is if there was a camera on the bathroom to record that McNally went in with the balls for 90 seconds, shouldn't there be film to show any other time he had gone in?  If he had been at work all day and didn't go to the bathroom, wouldn't that make the idea that he just went to the bathroom more plausible?  And if they had film of him taking a leak say 30 minutes earlier, that would destroy his story.  Since the NFL has leaked every other detail true or not, if they had him in the bathroom earlier, I sure we would have heard about that.

It seems reasonable to me that he would take a leak before heading out on the field.  He is probably required to stay on the field and would not have a chance to run back in before halftime.  I know I take a leak before I go to my seat when I go to games.

For anyone still reading this long post I want to explain gage pressure vs. absolute pressure.  When they quote 12.5 or 13.0 psi, they are implying that this is gage pressure or psig.  Gage pressure means the difference between the pressure you are measuring and atmospheric pressure (which varies but averages 14.7 psia at sea level).  Pressure gages can only measure a pressure relative to a reference pressure so gages inherently reference atmospheric pressure (it is right there and easy to reference).  The point is that pressure gages of the type used are not highly accurate and real gases do not behave exactly as ideal gases.  You are comparing a inaccurate measurement of gage pressure to a somewhat simplified calculation of absolute pressure-temperature changes so 0.5 psi of bias (about 2% of the absolute pressure in the ball) is a really small difference.

Why would McNally go to all this trouble to release an almost immeasurable amount of air from the balls?  You could barely get the needle in and out quick enough to limit the release of air to the amount we are talking about.

  Good info.

  So I'm guessing you'd probably agree with my claim that the keystone kops weren't able to show whether the balls were doctored or not?

  I can only imagine what my chem 101 professor would have said if I'd turned in a lab that was done that sloppily.


Re: #DeflateGate
« Reply #2089 on: August 04, 2015, 07:46:20 PM »

Offline BballTim

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I think Brady's explanation for why he had the phone destroyed makes perfect sense. 

Of course, if his attorney had fed him that answer beforehand, it would make perfect sense.

Still, it rings of truth to me regardless.

  The timing's a little fishy, as is the (supposed) fact that he never had the phone he used before that one destroyed.

Re: #DeflateGate
« Reply #2090 on: August 04, 2015, 07:48:27 PM »

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Re: #DeflateGate
« Reply #2091 on: August 04, 2015, 07:49:52 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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I'm reading the transcript of the appeal hearing now (regardless of whether you believed Brady did it or not) the suspension is too harsh. It has little basis when compared to previous cases in the NFL and does not go along with the CBA. The closest comparable violations in the CBA are punished by suspending the ball boy (without punishment to the player) or fining the player, a suspension for this is ridiculous.

 Goodell can not be allowed to make up punishment as he goes along with a disregard for consistency and fairness when it comes to judging players. Past impartial arbiters in cases said as much, which is why Goodell heard the appeal himself.

My theory is that after the Jets game, Brady really laid into the ball boy. Saying something to the effect of if I ever find the balls not how I like them again (after oking them during pregame) I'll make sure you are fired. The ball boy then felt that the balls were not right due to temperature change before the game and was scared to the point that he tried to fix the situation.
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Re: #DeflateGate
« Reply #2092 on: August 04, 2015, 07:51:12 PM »

Offline BballTim

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"the margin of error in the measurements will be larger than what they're trying to measure".

Clearly that was going to be the case, and obviously that's what happened.

You don't think that's a pretty serious problem when the NFL seeks to hand down one of the most severe punishments in the history of the league (picks + fines + suspension) for a violation it doesn't have the ability to prove even happened?

  The pats were accused  of doctoring the air pressure in their footballs by another team, and the (poorly done) pressure measurements seem to at least somewhat support the claim. Further investigation (which was probably warranted) uncovered some fairly incriminating texts.

  But the punishments do seem to be exceptionally severe for the infraction.

This is wrong

  It's obviously not wrong. If they'd measured the balls at halftime and the pats PSIs were within the allowable limits then it would have been unlikely that anything untoward happened. Measuring the balls and finding many of the pats balls below the allowable limit and none of the colts balls below the limit clearly seems to somewhat support the claim.

Ummm....except for the part in the Wells Report that showed 3 out the 4 balls from the Colts measured were under the minimum according to one gauge at halftime.

  I stand corrected. One of the colts balls was within range on both measurements, the other three were within range on one measurement. None of the pats balls were within range on either measurement. One of the 8 colts measurements was lower than the highest measurement of a pats ball, and 21 of the 22 measurements of the pats balls were lower than the lowest measurement for the colts balls. So that correction still doesn't really exonerate the pats.

Unless, the colts balls started at 13 psi instead of 12.5 as was WIDELY reported including by Walt Anderson in the wells report

  Do the math, the difference in the average between the pats and colts balls at halftime is probably well over that .5 psi starting difference.


The reasons for that has already been explained by Gas Law which indicated by the nature of them being measured after the Patriot's ones [and whatever time passed between them] was a factor for the increased PSI.

Yup.  There certainly can be a scientific explanation for it & this was also addressed in the Wells Report.   Up to 0.7 PSI in 13 minutes.

  For the record, I'm not oblivious to the ideal gas law, and I didn't need a refresher course in it when this story came out. I'm saying that they didn't take enough measurements to measure the effect of it they didn't take all of the measurements they'd want to, and the measuring they did wasn't accurate enough, they didn't even know (apparently) which gauge they used for some of the measurements. On top of that, they don't know how well the balls held their air pressure. Did I miss anything?

  The only things you can prove or disprove based on that are things that are so far from what was measured that the accumulation of all of the errors aren't great enough to affect them.

You wrote this a few days ago, "I don't think the ideal gas law says you'd lose that amount of air."  That was in response to my pointing out the IGL accounts for a 1.01 psi drop.  I don't mean to be a jerk by digging up older comments, but I think that is proof that you formed your opinion before knowing the basic facts as the IGL states the balls would lose that amount and even slightly more depending on the temperature of the room Anderson tested the balls in before the game.

  You're right, my first thought on the subject didn't account for stp. From what I read I wasn't alone in that. On the other hand, nobody's really demonstrated that the air inside the footballs was still as low as the outdoor temperature when the halftime measurements were done, so there's that as well.

Re: #DeflateGate
« Reply #2093 on: August 04, 2015, 07:59:42 PM »

Offline knuckleballer

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"the margin of error in the measurements will be larger than what they're trying to measure".

Clearly that was going to be the case, and obviously that's what happened.

You don't think that's a pretty serious problem when the NFL seeks to hand down one of the most severe punishments in the history of the league (picks + fines + suspension) for a violation it doesn't have the ability to prove even happened?

  The pats were accused  of doctoring the air pressure in their footballs by another team, and the (poorly done) pressure measurements seem to at least somewhat support the claim. Further investigation (which was probably warranted) uncovered some fairly incriminating texts.

  But the punishments do seem to be exceptionally severe for the infraction.

This is wrong

  It's obviously not wrong. If they'd measured the balls at halftime and the pats PSIs were within the allowable limits then it would have been unlikely that anything untoward happened. Measuring the balls and finding many of the pats balls below the allowable limit and none of the colts balls below the limit clearly seems to somewhat support the claim.

Ummm....except for the part in the Wells Report that showed 3 out the 4 balls from the Colts measured were under the minimum according to one gauge at halftime.

  I stand corrected. One of the colts balls was within range on both measurements, the other three were within range on one measurement. None of the pats balls were within range on either measurement. One of the 8 colts measurements was lower than the highest measurement of a pats ball, and 21 of the 22 measurements of the pats balls were lower than the lowest measurement for the colts balls. So that correction still doesn't really exonerate the pats.

Unless, the colts balls started at 13 psi instead of 12.5 as was WIDELY reported including by Walt Anderson in the wells report

  Do the math, the difference in the average between the pats and colts balls at halftime is probably well over that .5 psi starting difference.


The reasons for that has already been explained by Gas Law which indicated by the nature of them being measured after the Patriot's ones [and whatever time passed between them] was a factor for the increased PSI.

Yup.  There certainly can be a scientific explanation for it & this was also addressed in the Wells Report.   Up to 0.7 PSI in 13 minutes.

  For the record, I'm not oblivious to the ideal gas law, and I didn't need a refresher course in it when this story came out. I'm saying that they didn't take enough measurements to measure the effect of it they didn't take all of the measurements they'd want to, and the measuring they did wasn't accurate enough, they didn't even know (apparently) which gauge they used for some of the measurements. On top of that, they don't know how well the balls held their air pressure. Did I miss anything?

  The only things you can prove or disprove based on that are things that are so far from what was measured that the accumulation of all of the errors aren't great enough to affect them.

You wrote this a few days ago, "I don't think the ideal gas law says you'd lose that amount of air."  That was in response to my pointing out the IGL accounts for a 1.01 psi drop.  I don't mean to be a jerk by digging up older comments, but I think that is proof that you formed your opinion before knowing the basic facts as the IGL states the balls would lose that amount and even slightly more depending on the temperature of the room Anderson tested the balls in before the game.

  You're right, my first thought on the subject didn't account for stp. From what I read I wasn't alone in that. On the other hand, nobody's really demonstrated that the air inside the footballs was still as low as the outdoor temperature when the halftime measurements were done, so there's that as well.

There have been a lot of experiments done on how fast the balls would come to equilibrium and it takes less than 30 minutes.  So, the temperature in the balls would have matched the outdoor temperature long before halftime.

Re: #DeflateGate
« Reply #2094 on: August 04, 2015, 08:03:18 PM »

Offline knuckleballer

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I think Brady's explanation for why he had the phone destroyed makes perfect sense. 

Of course, if his attorney had fed him that answer beforehand, it would make perfect sense.

Still, it rings of truth to me regardless.

  The timing's a little fishy, as is the (supposed) fact that he never had the phone he used before that one destroyed.

You could also say he waited until his lawyers told him he did not need to hand over his phone before he replaced it.  That would be responsible and rational.

Re: #DeflateGate
« Reply #2095 on: August 04, 2015, 08:10:28 PM »

Offline BballTim

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"the margin of error in the measurements will be larger than what they're trying to measure".

Clearly that was going to be the case, and obviously that's what happened.

You don't think that's a pretty serious problem when the NFL seeks to hand down one of the most severe punishments in the history of the league (picks + fines + suspension) for a violation it doesn't have the ability to prove even happened?

  The pats were accused  of doctoring the air pressure in their footballs by another team, and the (poorly done) pressure measurements seem to at least somewhat support the claim. Further investigation (which was probably warranted) uncovered some fairly incriminating texts.

  But the punishments do seem to be exceptionally severe for the infraction.

This is wrong

  It's obviously not wrong. If they'd measured the balls at halftime and the pats PSIs were within the allowable limits then it would have been unlikely that anything untoward happened. Measuring the balls and finding many of the pats balls below the allowable limit and none of the colts balls below the limit clearly seems to somewhat support the claim.

Ummm....except for the part in the Wells Report that showed 3 out the 4 balls from the Colts measured were under the minimum according to one gauge at halftime.

  I stand corrected. One of the colts balls was within range on both measurements, the other three were within range on one measurement. None of the pats balls were within range on either measurement. One of the 8 colts measurements was lower than the highest measurement of a pats ball, and 21 of the 22 measurements of the pats balls were lower than the lowest measurement for the colts balls. So that correction still doesn't really exonerate the pats.

Unless, the colts balls started at 13 psi instead of 12.5 as was WIDELY reported including by Walt Anderson in the wells report

  Do the math, the difference in the average between the pats and colts balls at halftime is probably well over that .5 psi starting difference.


The reasons for that has already been explained by Gas Law which indicated by the nature of them being measured after the Patriot's ones [and whatever time passed between them] was a factor for the increased PSI.

Yup.  There certainly can be a scientific explanation for it & this was also addressed in the Wells Report.   Up to 0.7 PSI in 13 minutes.

  For the record, I'm not oblivious to the ideal gas law, and I didn't need a refresher course in it when this story came out. I'm saying that they didn't take enough measurements to measure the effect of it they didn't take all of the measurements they'd want to, and the measuring they did wasn't accurate enough, they didn't even know (apparently) which gauge they used for some of the measurements. On top of that, they don't know how well the balls held their air pressure. Did I miss anything?

  The only things you can prove or disprove based on that are things that are so far from what was measured that the accumulation of all of the errors aren't great enough to affect them.

You wrote this a few days ago, "I don't think the ideal gas law says you'd lose that amount of air."  That was in response to my pointing out the IGL accounts for a 1.01 psi drop.  I don't mean to be a jerk by digging up older comments, but I think that is proof that you formed your opinion before knowing the basic facts as the IGL states the balls would lose that amount and even slightly more depending on the temperature of the room Anderson tested the balls in before the game.

  You're right, my first thought on the subject didn't account for stp. From what I read I wasn't alone in that. On the other hand, nobody's really demonstrated that the air inside the footballs was still as low as the outdoor temperature when the halftime measurements were done, so there's that as well.

There have been a lot of experiments done on how fast the balls would come to equilibrium and it takes less than 30 minutes.  So, the temperature in the balls would have matched the outdoor temperature long before halftime.

  No, I mean as soon as you brought them inside they'd start coming back up to room temperature, so you can't really assume they'd all still be at the outdoor temperature when they were being measured. You also can't assume a big spread in temperature between the pats balls and the colts balls.

Re: #DeflateGate
« Reply #2096 on: August 04, 2015, 08:11:04 PM »

Offline cometboy

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"the margin of error in the measurements will be larger than what they're trying to measure".

Clearly that was going to be the case, and obviously that's what happened.

You don't think that's a pretty serious problem when the NFL seeks to hand down one of the most severe punishments in the history of the league (picks + fines + suspension) for a violation it doesn't have the ability to prove even happened?

  The pats were accused  of doctoring the air pressure in their footballs by another team, and the (poorly done) pressure measurements seem to at least somewhat support the claim. Further investigation (which was probably warranted) uncovered some fairly incriminating texts.

  But the punishments do seem to be exceptionally severe for the infraction.

This is wrong

  It's obviously not wrong. If they'd measured the balls at halftime and the pats PSIs were within the allowable limits then it would have been unlikely that anything untoward happened. Measuring the balls and finding many of the pats balls below the allowable limit and none of the colts balls below the limit clearly seems to somewhat support the claim.

Ummm....except for the part in the Wells Report that showed 3 out the 4 balls from the Colts measured were under the minimum according to one gauge at halftime.

  I stand corrected. One of the colts balls was within range on both measurements, the other three were within range on one measurement. None of the pats balls were within range on either measurement. One of the 8 colts measurements was lower than the highest measurement of a pats ball, and 21 of the 22 measurements of the pats balls were lower than the lowest measurement for the colts balls. So that correction still doesn't really exonerate the pats.

Unless, the colts balls started at 13 psi instead of 12.5 as was WIDELY reported including by Walt Anderson in the wells report

  Do the math, the difference in the average between the pats and colts balls at halftime is probably well over that .5 psi starting difference.


The reasons for that has already been explained by Gas Law which indicated by the nature of them being measured after the Patriot's ones [and whatever time passed between them] was a factor for the increased PSI.

Yup.  There certainly can be a scientific explanation for it & this was also addressed in the Wells Report.   Up to 0.7 PSI in 13 minutes.

  For the record, I'm not oblivious to the ideal gas law, and I didn't need a refresher course in it when this story came out. I'm saying that they didn't take enough measurements to measure the effect of it they didn't take all of the measurements they'd want to, and the measuring they did wasn't accurate enough, they didn't even know (apparently) which gauge they used for some of the measurements. On top of that, they don't know how well the balls held their air pressure. Did I miss anything?

  The only things you can prove or disprove based on that are things that are so far from what was measured that the accumulation of all of the errors aren't great enough to affect them.

1st para sounds like an excellent endorsement for why there should have been absolutely NO punishment, and a promise to tighten up the process for next year (i.e., next BB rule).

CB

  I think that all of the texts that we've heard about were more of an issue for the pats than the measurements were.

yes, but without a "crime", the texts are meaningless

CB

  The texts at least arguably imply that a "crime" was committed.

If stories about Brady's footballs in the Jet's game being "overinflated" to 16 psi are true, I can see an infuriated Brady threatening the equipment guys with castration if they let that ever happen again, even if it means "deflating" the balls to the low end of the legal range AFTER the refs take control. Still a violation of the rules, so yes a crime would have been committed, but I think most would agree it's a lesser one all the way around.

This would explain:

1) the "deflator" tag,

2) the reason the equipment guys were so PO'ed with Brady, and

3) the reason Brady so strongly believes he did nothing wrong. After all, he was just doing the ref's job for them, ensuring the balls were in the "legal" range. Granted, a rule would still have been broken, but arguably one to offset the ineptitude of the NFL and the refs.

Just a pet theory of mine.

CB

Re: #DeflateGate
« Reply #2097 on: August 04, 2015, 08:14:09 PM »

Offline BballTim

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I think Brady's explanation for why he had the phone destroyed makes perfect sense. 

Of course, if his attorney had fed him that answer beforehand, it would make perfect sense.

Still, it rings of truth to me regardless.

  The timing's a little fishy, as is the (supposed) fact that he never had the phone he used before that one destroyed.

You could also say he waited until his lawyers told him he did not need to hand over his phone before he replaced it.  That would be responsible and rational.

  His lawyer would have told him from day one that he didn't need to hand over his phone. They wouldn't have just decided that the week of his interview.

Re: #DeflateGate
« Reply #2098 on: August 04, 2015, 08:18:31 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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"the margin of error in the measurements will be larger than what they're trying to measure".

Clearly that was going to be the case, and obviously that's what happened.

You don't think that's a pretty serious problem when the NFL seeks to hand down one of the most severe punishments in the history of the league (picks + fines + suspension) for a violation it doesn't have the ability to prove even happened?

  The pats were accused  of doctoring the air pressure in their footballs by another team, and the (poorly done) pressure measurements seem to at least somewhat support the claim. Further investigation (which was probably warranted) uncovered some fairly incriminating texts.

  But the punishments do seem to be exceptionally severe for the infraction.

This is wrong

  It's obviously not wrong. If they'd measured the balls at halftime and the pats PSIs were within the allowable limits then it would have been unlikely that anything untoward happened. Measuring the balls and finding many of the pats balls below the allowable limit and none of the colts balls below the limit clearly seems to somewhat support the claim.

Ummm....except for the part in the Wells Report that showed 3 out the 4 balls from the Colts measured were under the minimum according to one gauge at halftime.

  I stand corrected. One of the colts balls was within range on both measurements, the other three were within range on one measurement. None of the pats balls were within range on either measurement. One of the 8 colts measurements was lower than the highest measurement of a pats ball, and 21 of the 22 measurements of the pats balls were lower than the lowest measurement for the colts balls. So that correction still doesn't really exonerate the pats.

Unless, the colts balls started at 13 psi instead of 12.5 as was WIDELY reported including by Walt Anderson in the wells report

  Do the math, the difference in the average between the pats and colts balls at halftime is probably well over that .5 psi starting difference.


The reasons for that has already been explained by Gas Law which indicated by the nature of them being measured after the Patriot's ones [and whatever time passed between them] was a factor for the increased PSI.

Yup.  There certainly can be a scientific explanation for it & this was also addressed in the Wells Report.   Up to 0.7 PSI in 13 minutes.

  For the record, I'm not oblivious to the ideal gas law, and I didn't need a refresher course in it when this story came out. I'm saying that they didn't take enough measurements to measure the effect of it they didn't take all of the measurements they'd want to, and the measuring they did wasn't accurate enough, they didn't even know (apparently) which gauge they used for some of the measurements. On top of that, they don't know how well the balls held their air pressure. Did I miss anything?

  The only things you can prove or disprove based on that are things that are so far from what was measured that the accumulation of all of the errors aren't great enough to affect them.

1st para sounds like an excellent endorsement for why there should have been absolutely NO punishment, and a promise to tighten up the process for next year (i.e., next BB rule).

CB

  I think that all of the texts that we've heard about were more of an issue for the pats than the measurements were.

yes, but without a "crime", the texts are meaningless

CB

  The texts at least arguably imply that a "crime" was committed.

If stories about Brady's footballs in the Jet's game being "overinflated" to 16 psi are true, I can see an infuriated Brady threatening the equipment guys with castration if they let that ever happen again, even if it means "deflating" the balls to the low end of the legal range AFTER the refs take control. Still a violation of the rules, so yes a crime would have been committed, but I think most would agree it's a lesser one all the way around.

This would explain:

1) the "deflator" tag,

2) the reason the equipment guys were so PO'ed with Brady, and

3) the reason Brady so strongly believes he did nothing wrong. After all, he was just doing the ref's job for them, ensuring the balls were in the "legal" range. Granted, a rule would still have been broken, but arguably one to offset the ineptitude of the NFL and the refs.

Just a pet theory of mine.

CB
That Brady had the equipment manager print out the rule book and show it to the refs as to the correct PSI really tells me something. It seems like Goodell is punishing Brady for a rule that the refs not only didn't enforce but didn't even know the specifics of.
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Re: #DeflateGate
« Reply #2099 on: August 04, 2015, 08:19:58 PM »

Offline knuckleballer

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"the margin of error in the measurements will be larger than what they're trying to measure".

Clearly that was going to be the case, and obviously that's what happened.

You don't think that's a pretty serious problem when the NFL seeks to hand down one of the most severe punishments in the history of the league (picks + fines + suspension) for a violation it doesn't have the ability to prove even happened?

  The pats were accused  of doctoring the air pressure in their footballs by another team, and the (poorly done) pressure measurements seem to at least somewhat support the claim. Further investigation (which was probably warranted) uncovered some fairly incriminating texts.

  But the punishments do seem to be exceptionally severe for the infraction.

This is wrong

  It's obviously not wrong. If they'd measured the balls at halftime and the pats PSIs were within the allowable limits then it would have been unlikely that anything untoward happened. Measuring the balls and finding many of the pats balls below the allowable limit and none of the colts balls below the limit clearly seems to somewhat support the claim.

Ummm....except for the part in the Wells Report that showed 3 out the 4 balls from the Colts measured were under the minimum according to one gauge at halftime.

  I stand corrected. One of the colts balls was within range on both measurements, the other three were within range on one measurement. None of the pats balls were within range on either measurement. One of the 8 colts measurements was lower than the highest measurement of a pats ball, and 21 of the 22 measurements of the pats balls were lower than the lowest measurement for the colts balls. So that correction still doesn't really exonerate the pats.

Unless, the colts balls started at 13 psi instead of 12.5 as was WIDELY reported including by Walt Anderson in the wells report

  Do the math, the difference in the average between the pats and colts balls at halftime is probably well over that .5 psi starting difference.


The reasons for that has already been explained by Gas Law which indicated by the nature of them being measured after the Patriot's ones [and whatever time passed between them] was a factor for the increased PSI.

Yup.  There certainly can be a scientific explanation for it & this was also addressed in the Wells Report.   Up to 0.7 PSI in 13 minutes.

  For the record, I'm not oblivious to the ideal gas law, and I didn't need a refresher course in it when this story came out. I'm saying that they didn't take enough measurements to measure the effect of it they didn't take all of the measurements they'd want to, and the measuring they did wasn't accurate enough, they didn't even know (apparently) which gauge they used for some of the measurements. On top of that, they don't know how well the balls held their air pressure. Did I miss anything?

  The only things you can prove or disprove based on that are things that are so far from what was measured that the accumulation of all of the errors aren't great enough to affect them.

You wrote this a few days ago, "I don't think the ideal gas law says you'd lose that amount of air."  That was in response to my pointing out the IGL accounts for a 1.01 psi drop.  I don't mean to be a jerk by digging up older comments, but I think that is proof that you formed your opinion before knowing the basic facts as the IGL states the balls would lose that amount and even slightly more depending on the temperature of the room Anderson tested the balls in before the game.

  You're right, my first thought on the subject didn't account for stp. From what I read I wasn't alone in that. On the other hand, nobody's really demonstrated that the air inside the footballs was still as low as the outdoor temperature when the halftime measurements were done, so there's that as well.

There have been a lot of experiments done on how fast the balls would come to equilibrium and it takes less than 30 minutes.  So, the temperature in the balls would have matched the outdoor temperature long before halftime.

  No, I mean as soon as you brought them inside they'd start coming back up to room temperature, so you can't really assume they'd all still be at the outdoor temperature when they were being measured. You also can't assume a big spread in temperature between the pats balls and the colts balls.

I assumed you meant when they brought them in.  Exponent calculated transient curves that show how fast the balls warm up.  Some of the assumptions Exponent used have been criticized including the temperature of the room they used as well as the exact time the Colts balls were measured which is probably the biggest key.  They assumed the Colt balls were measure 8 minutes (I think) into the half.  However, that contradicts statements by the refs who said they only measured 4 balls because they ran out of time.  Had Exponent assumed the balls were measure several minutes later, they would have been consistent with the Patriots balls along the transient curve.