#DeflateGate (Court of Appeals Reinstates Suspension)

[Eja117]

I've read virtually the whole thing now.

Evidence in favor of Patriots cheating:
The guy went to the bathroom for a while with the balls
The guy took the balls and generally that doesn't happen. The very experienced ref never had a situation where they couldn't find the balls.
The guy with the balls called himself the deflator
The guys were well aware of Brady's preference for balls inflated low
They had motive
Brady wouldn't share texts or phone records with the investigators
The scientists have concluded a person had to have let air out to get to those levels
The equipment guy told the ball guy "I have a needle for ya"

Evidence against Pats cheating
There is no point anywhere where it can be seen that anyone is encouraging anyone to cheat, especially not Brady
It's common for QBs to have good relationships with equipment guys etc and give them autographs
It's common for players to talk to guys and prepare before games and the Super Bowl
The guys were actually joking about over inflating the balls because Tom is a jerk
It's possible conversations were mixed up about getting tickets for a friend
Various witnesses did say the ball guy takes the balls out from time to time

Conclusion.  Tom can be a bit of a diva about his stuff and people try to make him happy. One stupid ball guy probably took things too far once. 

Punishment....same as those guys that were caught on live national tv doctoring the balls against the rules....a very stern warning. Ball guy can never handle NFL balls ever again. NFL doesn't apologize to Patriots.

[Eja117]

For those folks without legal training or knowledge, "more probable than not" means nothing beyond "at least 50.00000000000000001%" likelihood.

It's a very low bar of proof.  To spend weeks and weeks and thousands of dollars in an investigation and come forward with "more probable than not," and nothing more specific than that, is pretty weak.

Well, it's also the same burden of proof as in almost every civil case in the entire country, and has been for hundreds of years.  It's not quite as flimsy as you're suggesting.  "More likely than not" means that the facts weigh in the direction of culpability.

In our legal system, damages aren't determined by how confident the finder of fact is that a plaintiff has proved his case.  Once the case is proved -- whether it be 50.01% or 100.0% -- it's proved, period.  Damages are what they are, and if the NFL follows that model, penalties should be the same whether there was a smoking gun or simply a likelihood of guilt.

Then again, there is a reason why the standard of proof is lower in civil cases than it is in criminal cases.

Right.  When you're taking away somebody's liberty, you need higher proof, as it should be.  The room for error is higher with a "more likely than not" standard.

I just object to treating the preponderance of the evidence standard almost as if it's some insubstantial standard created by the NFL to screw the Patriots.

I interpreted this whole thing as more of a criminal trial trying to catch them breaking the law than a civil trial for damages to the Colts. That's just me.

[Donoghus]

Also, damages can depend on what was actually proven at trial and to what degree.  Meeting the burden often just means that you are entitled to damages.  It's then up to the jury, in many cases, to determine how far above the minimum penalty they will choose to go in penalizing the defendant.

The minimum penalty here, IIRC, is a five-digit fine...

Knowing how Goodell operates, he'll go whatever direction the winds blow.  Given the initial national media & public reaction to this, he'll go heavy with the penalties and chalk it up to "fair play & the integrity of the shield" or something along those lines.

No one should expect Goodell to show anything resembling consistency here.

[kozlodoev]

The guy with the balls called himself the deflator

In May 2014 -- middle of the offseason, 4 months before the start of the 2014 season and 8 months before the AFC Championship game.

 

[Roy H.]

I interpreted this whole thing as more of a criminal trial trying to catch them breaking the law than a civil trial for damages to the Colts. That's just me.

I think all NFL discipline is subject to a preponderance standard, although I could be wrong on that

EDIT:  Yep.

Per a league source, the “preponderance of the evidence” standard applies in cases involving allegations of conduct that undermines the integrity of the game.  That comes from the league policy manual given to every team.

That's from January.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/27/low-standard-of-proof-applies-to-deflategate/

[Eja117]

The guy with the balls called himself the deflator

In May 2014 -- middle of the offseason, 4 months before the start of the 2014 season and 8 months before the AFC Championship game.

 

True, but then later the guy said he had a needle for him and he disappeared into the bathroom for almost two minutes while the balls couldn't be found. 

[Roy H.]

Also, damages can depend on what was actually proven at trial and to what degree.  Meeting the burden often just means that you are entitled to damages.  It's then up to the jury, in many cases, to determine how far above the minimum penalty they will choose to go in penalizing the defendant.

The minimum penalty here, IIRC, is a five-digit fine...

Knowing how Goodell operates, he'll go whatever direction the winds blow.  Given the initial national media & public reaction to this, he'll go heavy with the penalties and chalk it up to "fair play & the integrity of the shield" or something along those lines.

No one should expect Goodell to show anything resembling consistency here.

Very true there.  It's hard to respect somebody who gives a decision, sees it's unpopular, and then increases the punishment after the fact, with no new allegations.

[Eja117]

I interpreted this whole thing as more of a criminal trial trying to catch them breaking the law than a civil trial for damages to the Colts. That's just me.

I think all NFL discipline is subject to a preponderance standard, although I could be wrong on that

EDIT:  Yep.

Per a league source, the “preponderance of the evidence” standard applies in cases involving allegations of conduct that undermines the integrity of the game.  That comes from the league policy manual given to every team.

That's from January.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/27/low-standard-of-proof-applies-to-deflategate/

Darn it. I wonder if there are any rules about consistency of enforcement. They caught two other teams on national tv breaking rules and they got nothing. Here they say "Well. They probably did it" and are going to get punished.  Way to go NFL. Way to go.

[kozlodoev]

The guy with the balls called himself the deflator

In May 2014 -- middle of the offseason, 4 months before the start of the 2014 season and 8 months before the AFC Championship game.

 

True, but then later the guy said he had a needle for him and he disappeared into the bathroom for almost two minutes while the balls couldn't be found.

Also, one game day crew allegedly inflated game balls to 16 PSI. Context.

Also, if Brady was ticked off about this, it seems they weren't deflating balls at that point -- otherwise there wouldn't have been a 16 PSI ball in play.

There are also multiple other inconsistencies -- e.g. the report suggests that deflation has been discussed for months, yet also states this was the first time McNally took the balls out of the officials locker room on his own. 

[kozlodoev]

When Anderson and other members of the officiating crew were preparing to
leave the Officials Locker Room to head to the field for the start of the game, the
game balls could not be located. It was the first time in Anderson?s nineteen
years as an NFL official that he could not locate the game balls at the start of a
game.

Walt Anderson refereed Broncos-Patriots, a home game that too place just a week after some of the texts that supposedly discuss ball deflation were exchanged. Just saying.

[D.o.s.]

I interpreted this whole thing as more of a criminal trial trying to catch them breaking the law than a civil trial for damages to the Colts. That's just me.

I think all NFL discipline is subject to a preponderance standard, although I could be wrong on that

EDIT:  Yep.

Per a league source, the “preponderance of the evidence” standard applies in cases involving allegations of conduct that undermines the integrity of the game.  That comes from the league policy manual given to every team.

That's from January.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/27/low-standard-of-proof-applies-to-deflategate/

Darn it. I wonder if there are any rules about consistency of enforcement. They caught two other teams on national tv breaking rules and they got nothing. Here they say "Well. They probably did it" and are going to get punished.  Way to go NFL. Way to go.

This is, of course, the time honored tradition of saying "but he/she/they did this too!" in the face of potential punishment.

[Eja117]

I interpreted this whole thing as more of a criminal trial trying to catch them breaking the law than a civil trial for damages to the Colts. That's just me.

I think all NFL discipline is subject to a preponderance standard, although I could be wrong on that

EDIT:  Yep.

Per a league source, the “preponderance of the evidence” standard applies in cases involving allegations of conduct that undermines the integrity of the game.  That comes from the league policy manual given to every team.

That's from January.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/27/low-standard-of-proof-applies-to-deflategate/

Darn it. I wonder if there are any rules about consistency of enforcement. They caught two other teams on national tv breaking rules and they got nothing. Here they say "Well. They probably did it" and are going to get punished.  Way to go NFL. Way to go.

This is, of course, the time honored tradition of saying "but he/she/they did this too!" in the face of potential punishment.

Well yeah. That matters. Consistency and the punishment fitting the crime...definitely. I totally own that. I want the Pats treated the same as anyone else for the same crime. No apologies there.

[kozlodoev]

This is, of course, the time honored tradition of saying "but he/she/they did this too!" in the face of potential punishment.

We discussed this ad nauseam before anything was established on the case, too.

[Eja117]

The guy with the balls called himself the deflator

In May 2014 -- middle of the offseason, 4 months before the start of the 2014 season and 8 months before the AFC Championship game.

 

True, but then later the guy said he had a needle for him and he disappeared into the bathroom for almost two minutes while the balls couldn't be found.

Also, one game day crew allegedly inflated game balls to 16 PSI. Context.

Also, if Brady was ticked off about this, it seems they weren't deflating balls at that point -- otherwise there wouldn't have been a 16 PSI ball in play.

There are also multiple other inconsistencies -- e.g. the report suggests that deflation has been discussed for months, yet also states this was the first time McNally took the balls out of the officials locker room on his own. 

True. It's definitely not a perfect report. And it's just not true that the league was totally unaware or anything like that. The Colts definitely got what they wanted here for being tatle tales.

[Eja117]

Jets got 100K fine for tampering with our guy. I'd accept a 100K fine. I'd want Brady to appeal it, but the Jets clearly clearly broke the rule in front of the world. They just sorta THINK Brady did something. So maybe a 75K fine or a 50K fine. Maybe a stern warning. Maybe 25K seeing as how they had already received the warning.


Too bad that being tatle tales is being rewarded in the league these days. The Pats need to get into that game. Everything from the other team's socks to their kicking tees to their gatorade. Everything. If you can't beat em join em.

It would also be fun if the Pats propose rules changes because they aren't good enough to deal with a rule as is the way the Ravens do. How many times have they changed the rules on the Pats now? 3 times?