(Sorry, this post turned out to be longer than I thought it would be.) tl;dr: I think we're a lottery team.)
TP, because I always read this thread, even if I don't have a chance to comment (Although, as my wife would tell you, it is rare that I don't have a comment for something.).
What makes this year's races (draft and playoffs) so interesting is how tightly teams are bunched. Talk about every game matters! It's all going to come down to strength of schedule remaining (SOS), and it doesn't look great for the C's if you are rooting for the playoffs. Two caveats:
A) A lot of this analysis is going to depend on which teams rest players at the end of the season. In the east, it looks like ATL and CLE have the top 2 locked up. There could be some movement within the 3,4,5 seeds, while Milwaukee will probably stay at 6th. Miami (7-seed) is 2 up on the 8-seed, and here's where it gets interesting:
Miami would beat us and Brooklyn, based on head-to-head, in a tie-breaker.
Miami would lose to Indy and Charlotte, based on divisional record (if it wins its remaining games against each team). It leads each team by 2.5, having played one fewer than Indy and one more than Charlotte.
Then, it becomes a big round-robin in the tie-breaker scheme if there are multiple teams tied.
Confusing much?
B) My analysis isn't based on much "analysis." I wish I had a little more time to go through the numbers in depth, but I don't, so this analysis is strictly anecdotal.
Boston (11 games left): We do not have an easy schedule. We have the Clippers on Sunday, and two each against Cleveland, Toronto and Milwaukee. Cleveland could rest players and still beat us (and they still have two games after those against us; better to rest them then). Milwaukee may rest players in the second game against us. But unless it has some real separation, Toronto is playing hard. We're also playing at Charlotte (pick 'em), and have games at Detroit and New York, while home against Indy. I don't see a lot of easy wins in there.
Indy (10 games left): Not a particularly easy schedule, but not terrible. The plus side is that we win the tie-breaker against them. Their hardest games remaining are home against Dallas and at Memphis. The Memphis game is the last of the season, so maybe Memphis rests players. They play Brooklyn, the Knicks, Detroit and us on the road, Charlotte, Miami, OKC and Washington at home. I anticipate that they'll pick up that game they need to catch us.
Charlotte (12 games left): Also a mixed schedule. Tough games home/away against ATL, home/away against Toronto. We play them in Charlotte next week (2nd game in two nights, 3rd in four for us) and if they win, they win the tie-breaker. If they lose, we win the tie-breaker*. They are also home/away against Detroit and play a few mixed games, including at Indy (And if they lose to Indy, that still hurts us, which is bad, since it hurts us if they win at Indy.), home against Philly and a few others. I think they'll have enough wins to squeak by.
Brooklyn (12 games remaining): The good news is that, well, it's Brooklyn, so they have the potential to lose any given game on any given night. But nine of their last 12 are at home, even if three of those games are against Cleveland, Toronto and Atlanta (They also play at Atlanta.). But there's a few games in there that they should win, including home against the Lakers, Pacers (see above situation with Charlotte), Orlando and at the Knicks. Also some odds and ends in there that include Portland, Washington, Milwaukee and Chicago. Truthfully, I have no idea which way this team shakes out.
Here's what matters, though: Only one of the above teams needs to pass us. They all look like they have easier schedules than we do.
Bonus analysis: We are tied with Utah (11 games remaining). Since they're not competing against us for the playoffs, only for the lottery, we should be rooting for them. But they're in the west, so they have to have a tough schedule, right? Not so much. Home/away against Denver and Sacramento. Home against OKC, which could go either way. At Phoenix in early April, which should be a PHX win. The downside is that their last four games are against Memphis, Portland, Dallas and Houston, all four of which they could lose. Of course, our last four are 2 X Cleveland, Toronto and Milwaukee, all of which we could lose. Whoever goes into their last four games behind has the "advantage," at least as it pertains to the lottery. And since they won the coin flip last year, I think it's only fair that we get it this year.
Mike
*ETA: We lose the tie-breaker to Charlotte based on conference record.