Standings watch for C's picks in 2015

[Quetzalcoatl]

We're two games out, but Charlotte and the Pacers are about to get their impact players back next week.  It seems really unlikely we're going to catch the Pacers in particular and we'd have to pass Miami, Brooklyn and one of those first two to make the playoffs.  I'm all for trying, but I wouldn't get your hopes up.  I'm mostly scared that if we don't at least go super hard for the playoffs, Stevens will bolt for Indiana in the offseason.   

I will say that if we had been playing like this all season, we'd be a lock for the playoffs.  Next year is looking really promising, at least from an entertainment perspective.

[celticsclay]

We're two games out, but Charlotte and the Pacers are about to get their impact players back next week.  It seems really unlikely we're going to catch the Pacers in particular and we'd have to pass Miami, Brooklyn and one of those first two to make the playoffs.  I'm all for trying, but I wouldn't get your hopes up.  I'm mostly scared that if we don't at least go super hard for the playoffs, Stevens will bolt for Indiana in the offseason.   

I will say that if we had been playing like this all season, we'd be a lock for the playoffs.  Next year is looking really promising, at least from an entertainment perspective.

I posted this in another thread, but I am not so sure that Walker is as good as everyone seems to think he is. He shoots like 39% and the hornets were playing a lot worse before he got hurt. He will bump down Mo Williams minutes who is explicably having an amazing run. He has been averaging 20 point and 10 assists since joining them on like 50% shooting.

[slamtheking]

As always, TP for the effort. 

I was really hoping that Sacramento would start winning, but with only 23 games left, a 3-win difference is a heck of a hurdle.  I was counting on our really tough April schedule to bail us out, but if the top of the playoffs picture is in order by that time, Toronto and Cleveland might rest their starters.  Brooklyn and Indiana seem to be holding in, so I'm hopeful that they won't pass us. 

For teams that we could catch, I think Denver is a lost cause.  They're just a mess.  I'm surprised Detroit isn't doing better, though.  We have two more against them between now and the end of the year.

And just for the sake of fairness, if we end up tied with Utah again, I vote that we should get the pick this year, since they got it last year.

Mike

It seems weird to be focusing on the lottery when we are 2 games out of the playoffs... I think everyone can agree rooting for wins is more fun than losses. Second, it is not like we are in the in the first or second spot where we are really changing our chances of a top 3 pick. Maybe worry about this after we get eliminated from the playoffs and it is the last week of the season where a win by sacramento and Utah can get us two spots higher.  Right now it just seems like a depressing exercise in futility.

no disagreement that rooting for wins is more fun but I'm just putting this together for informational purposes whether people prefer the playoffs or a better pick --> added the playoff cutoff once the playoffs became a possibility.

Personally, I don't see them making it to the playoffs this year.  probably end up 3-4 games out from the #8 spot and around the tenth pick.

[celticsclay]

As always, TP for the effort. 

I was really hoping that Sacramento would start winning, but with only 23 games left, a 3-win difference is a heck of a hurdle.  I was counting on our really tough April schedule to bail us out, but if the top of the playoffs picture is in order by that time, Toronto and Cleveland might rest their starters.  Brooklyn and Indiana seem to be holding in, so I'm hopeful that they won't pass us. 

For teams that we could catch, I think Denver is a lost cause.  They're just a mess.  I'm surprised Detroit isn't doing better, though.  We have two more against them between now and the end of the year.

And just for the sake of fairness, if we end up tied with Utah again, I vote that we should get the pick this year, since they got it last year.

Mike

It seems weird to be focusing on the lottery when we are 2 games out of the playoffs... I think everyone can agree rooting for wins is more fun than losses. Second, it is not like we are in the in the first or second spot where we are really changing our chances of a top 3 pick. Maybe worry about this after we get eliminated from the playoffs and it is the last week of the season where a win by sacramento and Utah can get us two spots higher.  Right now it just seems like a depressing exercise in futility.

no disagreement that rooting for wins is more fun but I'm just putting this together for informational purposes whether people prefer the playoffs or a better pick --> added the playoff cutoff once the playoffs became a possibility.

Personally, I don't see them making it to the playoffs this year.  probably end up 3-4 games out from the #8 spot and around the tenth pick.

Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the efforts, especially for the other picks that are not tied to the Celtics record. Seems like all fans have to acknowledge the playoffs are a possibility. It is worth noting that the Hornets are about to play 6 of their next 9 games on the road and have games like last night where they look truly awful. The Celtics are also playing really well, their only losses in their last night were to Cleveland, Golden State and a meltdown to Orlando in the 4th quarter. We are underdogs still, but as other teams start to fade (Detroit it out) and battle injuries (everyone on Miami is injured or manufacturing injuries), our chances improve.

[JHTruth]

We should definitely want the lottery. Our being in the playoff hunt is really a reflection of how bad the East is, not how good this team is. There is no way a team 10 games under .500 in the lowly EC should be gunning for the playoffs. This team needs a lot more talent and needs it now. We should be tanking for picks at this point and getting ready for the offseason.

[celticsclay]

We should definitely want the lottery. Our being in the playoff hunt is really a reflection of how bad the East is, not how good this team is. There is no way a team 10 games under .500 in the lowly EC should be gunning for the playoffs. This team needs a lot more talent and needs it now. We should be tanking for picks at this point and getting ready for the offseason.

you can wish all you want.. the ship sailed. Why bother worrying about? Do you realize the Celtics have been playing over .500 ball for over two months? How long do they have to do that before you just accept what they are? They were an awful team with Green and Rondo. With IT and the development of smart and others we are an average team in the East. We can't change that by lamenting over it.

[arctic 3.0]

With the suns winning tonight, spurs up 10 in the 4th  and Dallas down big to cavs it's getting tight at the bottom of the western conf playoff race.
If results stand dal will slip to 7th, only 4 games up on NO in the loss column.
They have a tough schedule coming up.
Conceivable that they miss playoffs and we snag a late lotto pick.
Wouldn't it be awesome if we grabbed 8th seed, and still got a chance at lotto magic!

[The Rondo Show]

With the suns winning tonight, spurs up 10 in the 4th  and Dallas down big to cavs it's getting tight at the bottom of the western conf playoff race.
If results stand dal will slip to 7th, only 4 games up on NO in the loss column.
They have a tough schedule coming up.
Conceivable that they miss playoffs and we snag a late lotto pick.
Wouldn't it be awesome if we grabbed 8th seed, and still got a chance at lotto magic!

More people should be talking about this.

[quidinqui33]

Yup, I've been tracking this as well.  Watching to see if the mavs miss the playoffs is almost as important as watching us try and make the playoffs.

If I'm not mistaken, the pick is top 3 protected to protect the mavs, and playoff protected to protect us from getting non-lotto first rounder so ideally we need the mavs to miss the playoffs but not win the lotto.

Come on Rondo! Keep messin with the chemistry!!!

Btw, rondo show, I'm a fellow longhorn and live in Austin. Hook em!

[fairweatherfan]

With the suns winning tonight, spurs up 10 in the 4th  and Dallas down big to cavs it's getting tight at the bottom of the western conf playoff race.
If results stand dal will slip to 7th, only 4 games up on NO in the loss column.
They have a tough schedule coming up.
Conceivable that they miss playoffs and we snag a late lotto pick.
Wouldn't it be awesome if we grabbed 8th seed, and still got a chance at lotto magic!

More people should be talking about this.

4.5 games up with 16 to go is still a little unrealistic.  If it's down to say 2 games with 8 to go, then it starts seeming more likely and it'll get more attention.  Unfortunately no lottery magic though, the pick is top 3 protected.  We'd have to hope their handful of ping-pong balls didn't come up.

...now the Clips dropping behind the Spurs, that does seem pretty likely, and would help our guaranteed pick a little bit.

[saltlover]

With the suns winning tonight, spurs up 10 in the 4th  and Dallas down big to cavs it's getting tight at the bottom of the western conf playoff race. If results stand dal will slip to 7th, only 4 games up on NO in the loss column. They have a tough schedule coming up. Conceivable that they miss playoffs and we snag a late lotto pick. Wouldn't it be awesome if we grabbed 8th seed, and still got a chance at lotto magic!

More people should be talking about this.

4.5 games up with 16 to go is still a little unrealistic.  If it's down to say 2 games with 8 to go, then it starts seeming more likely and it'll get more attention.  Unfortunately no lottery magic though, the pick is top 3 protected.  We'd have to hope their handful of ping-pong balls didn't come up. ...now the Clips dropping behind the Spurs, that does seem pretty likely, and would help our guaranteed pick a little bit.

Yeah, the odds that they drop 4.5 games on TWO teams in that time is quite low.  Fun to think about, but low.  However, Dirk is aging quickly, and it seems all the more probable that Dallas is a mid-to-late lottery team next year, giving us a great pick.  If we keep both that pick and the Brooklyn pick, we'd have a chance to be a playoff team with two lottery picks the following draft (and if we miss the playoffs, we'd then get three lotto picks as a consolation prize.  And oh year, go Minnesota!)  For example, the Mavs are 9-7 in their last 16, while the Thunder are 12-4 and Pelicans are 10-6.  If those three teams won at the same pace over the final 16, neither New Orleans nor the Pelicans would catch the Mavs, much less both.

It's fun to root against the Mavs, but the better option is to root for the Mavs to pass the Clippers (as well as for the Spurs to do the same) to send our Clippers pick lower in the 20's.  The Mavs would probably need to go 6-10 over their final 16 to miss the playoffs, and that's just not likely (nor guaranteed they'd miss even if that occurred).

[arctic 3.0]

With the suns winning tonight, spurs up 10 in the 4th  and Dallas down big to cavs it's getting tight at the bottom of the western conf playoff race. If results stand dal will slip to 7th, only 4 games up on NO in the loss column. They have a tough schedule coming up. Conceivable that they miss playoffs and we snag a late lotto pick. Wouldn't it be awesome if we grabbed 8th seed, and still got a chance at lotto magic!

More people should be talking about this.

4.5 games up with 16 to go is still a little unrealistic.  If it's down to say 2 games with 8 to go, then it starts seeming more likely and it'll get more attention.  Unfortunately no lottery magic though, the pick is top 3 protected.  We'd have to hope their handful of ping-pong balls didn't come up. ...now the Clips dropping behind the Spurs, that does seem pretty likely, and would help our guaranteed pick a little bit.

Yeah, the odds that they drop 4.5 games on TWO teams in that time is quite low.  Fun to think about, but low.  However, Dirk is aging quickly, and it seems all the more probable that Dallas is a mid-to-late lottery team next year, giving us a great pick.  If we keep both that pick and the Brooklyn pick, we'd have a chance to be a playoff team with two lottery picks the following draft (and if we miss the playoffs, we'd then get three lotto picks as a consolation prize.  And oh year, go Minnesota!)  For example, the Mavs are 9-7 in their last 16, while the Thunder are 12-4 and Pelicans are 10-6.  If those three teams won at the same pace over the final 16, neither New Orleans nor the Pelicans would catch the Mavs, much less both.

It's fun to root against the Mavs, but the better option is to root for the Mavs to pass the Clippers (as well as for the Spurs to do the same) to send our Clippers pick lower in the 20's.  The Mavs would probably need to go 6-10 over their final 16 to miss the playoffs, and that's just not likely (nor guaranteed they'd miss even if that occurred).

They have 8 games against western conf playoff teams plus 1against Indy, 2 against the suns (who are fighting for the 8th seed) and one against the new look jazz, who are playing some of their best ball in years.
That's 12 potential losses. Not at all outside the realm off possibility that they miss the playoffs

[saltlover]

With the suns winning tonight, spurs up 10 in the 4th  and Dallas down big to cavs it's getting tight at the bottom of the western conf playoff race. If results stand dal will slip to 7th, only 4 games up on NO in the loss column. They have a tough schedule coming up. Conceivable that they miss playoffs and we snag a late lotto pick. Wouldn't it be awesome if we grabbed 8th seed, and still got a chance at lotto magic!

More people should be talking about this.

4.5 games up with 16 to go is still a little unrealistic.  If it's down to say 2 games with 8 to go, then it starts seeming more likely and it'll get more attention.  Unfortunately no lottery magic though, the pick is top 3 protected.  We'd have to hope their handful of ping-pong balls didn't come up. ...now the Clips dropping behind the Spurs, that does seem pretty likely, and would help our guaranteed pick a little bit.

Yeah, the odds that they drop 4.5 games on TWO teams in that time is quite low.  Fun to think about, but low.  However, Dirk is aging quickly, and it seems all the more probable that Dallas is a mid-to-late lottery team next year, giving us a great pick.  If we keep both that pick and the Brooklyn pick, we'd have a chance to be a playoff team with two lottery picks the following draft (and if we miss the playoffs, we'd then get three lotto picks as a consolation prize.  And oh year, go Minnesota!)  For example, the Mavs are 9-7 in their last 16, while the Thunder are 12-4 and Pelicans are 10-6.  If those three teams won at the same pace over the final 16, neither New Orleans nor the Pelicans would catch the Mavs, much less both.

It's fun to root against the Mavs, but the better option is to root for the Mavs to pass the Clippers (as well as for the Spurs to do the same) to send our Clippers pick lower in the 20's.  The Mavs would probably need to go 6-10 over their final 16 to miss the playoffs, and that's just not likely (nor guaranteed they'd miss even if that occurred).

They have 8 games against western conf playoff teams plus 1against Indy, 2 against the suns (who are fighting for the 8th seed) and one against the new look jazz, who are playing some of their best ball in years.
That's 12 potential losses. Not at all outside the realm off possibility that they miss the playoffs

I mean, keep your hopes up if that makes you happy.  But New Orleans has 8 games against western conference playoff games, 2 against Phoenix, and 1 against Milwaukee, not to mention fewer home games than Dallas.  There's little reason to think Dallas will lose 4.5 games to New Orleans based on schedule alone, when they have a very similar schedule.  Dallas would have to really go in the tank the last fifth of the season for that to occur.  And for all the narrative about Rondo messing things up, they're still playing good enough basketball to win on most nights.

Is it beyond the realm of possibility?  No.  But the odds are probably beneath 5%.  ESPN's playoff odds give the Mavs a 98.5% chance to make it as of this writing.  It's about as likely that the Celtics get the #1 pick in the lottery as it is the Celtics get #14 overall from the Mavs.

[Quetzalcoatl]

TP to artic 3.0.  This draft > next year's draft, so here's hoping they fall apart.

Just so everyone can see it, Dallas' next games are:

vs Clippers
vs OKC
vs Magic
vs Memphis
@ Phoenix
vs San Antonio
@ San Antonio
@ Indy
@ OKC
vs Houston
vs Golden State
vs Phoenix
@ Denver
@ Los Angeles
@ Utah
vs Portland

I mean, they really are looking terrible right now and through the second Phoenix game caps off just a brutal stretch.  Meanwhile, the Pellies are up against:

vs Denver
vs Milwaukee
@ Phoenix
@ Golden State
@ LAC
vs Houston
vs Sactown
vs Minny
@ LAL
@ Sacramento
@ Portland
vs Golden State
@ Memphis
vs Phoenix
@ Houston
@ Minny
vs San Antonio

So in other words, the Mavs have 6/16 games vs Lottery teams and only Denver and LAL are going to be layups.  The Pelicans have 8/17 vs lottery games and they are against much worse lotto teams at that.  I mean, I'm counting the Suns as a lottery team and the Bucks as a playoff team, but which one would you rather play? 

I mean, would you take this bet right now?  If the Mavs go to the playoffs, you win $5 million.  If they don't, you die.  I wouldn't take that bet.

[saltlover]

TP to artic 3.0.  This draft > next year's draft, so here's hoping they fall apart.

Just so everyone can see it, Dallas' next games are:

vs Clippers
vs OKC
vs Magic
vs Memphis
@ Phoenix
vs San Antonio
@ San Antonio
@ Indy
@ OKC
vs Houston
vs Golden State
vs Phoenix
@ Denver
@ Los Angeles
@ Utah
vs Portland

I mean, they really are looking terrible right now and through the second Phoenix game caps off just a brutal stretch.  Meanwhile, the Pellies are up against:

vs Denver
vs Milwaukee
@ Phoenix
@ Golden State
@ LAC
vs Houston
vs Sactown
vs Minny
@ LAL
@ Sacramento
@ Portland
vs Golden State
@ Memphis
vs Phoenix
@ Houston
@ Minny
vs San Antonio

So in other words, the Mavs have 6/16 games vs Lottery teams and only Denver and LAL are going to be layups.  The Pelicans have 8/17 vs lottery games and they are against much worse lotto teams at that.  I mean, I'm counting the Suns as a lottery team and the Bucks as a playoff team, but which one would you rather play? 

I mean, would you take this bet right now?  If the Mavs go to the playoffs, you win $5 million.  If they don't, you die.  I wouldn't take that bet.

Seriously, the Mavs aren't looking "terrible".  They're not looking like a team that can win a championship, but in the last 10 games they're 5-5 with wins over Houston, Toronto, and the very Pelicans team that you think can catch them from behind.  It's unlikely the Mavs go worse than 6-10, and if that happens, the Pellies need to finish 12-5 to pass the Mavs (since Dallas holds the tiebreaker.)  Dallas will win some games against good Western conference teams.  It's just going to happen.  Not all, and maybe not half, but enough to fend off New Orleans.

Would I bet my life on it?  No, because I'm rather afraid of death.  But if I weren't, I would absolutely take that bet.  Certainly the odds are more in my favor than Russian Roulette, and $5 million is a lot of money.

I tell you what I will bet:  Tommy points.  You can have all of mine if the Mavs miss the playoffs, and I'll get 1/4 of yours if they don't.  You on?