Author Topic: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015  (Read 66820 times)

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Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #120 on: February 21, 2015, 08:00:54 PM »

Offline BornReady

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on thursday, tankathon.com had the celtics at #11 in the draft, with a 3.3% chance at a top 3 pick.

today, after one single loss, the celtics are #9 in the draft, with a 6.1% chance at a top 3 pick. and they are 1.5 games out of the #6 slot.

right now, the draft positions from #6 to #11 have 6 teams separated by at total of TWO games. things are really volatile and where the celtics will end up is hard to predict.

What's funny is that the potential draftees between #6 and #11 are just as volatile as the standings of the teams that could draft them.  There just isn't that much talent difference within that group and the mock drafts are going to be shuffling them up and down until draft day. 

That could be to our benefit.  In a normal year, moving from an 11 to, say, #8, would be difficult.  The Clippers pick wouldn't be enough to do it.  This year, though, that whole second tier of players is almost interchangeable, particularly if you are going BPA. 

I'm really looking forward to the Nets picks in 16 and especially 2017.  I don't want to go too far OT, but Thad Young actually makes Brooklyn better.  What are the chances that he opts out this summer?  I don't know if he'll get >$9m elsewhere. 

Mike


Thad young resigns
Too many good PF in the league so he wouldn't really command that money else where
Besides Brooklyn should be happy they get a nice young player in an era where they wont get another first round draft pick until 2019

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #121 on: February 21, 2015, 08:02:38 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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Man, I am hoping Kings and Pistons start playing better. I believe Denver and Utah may have trouble tanking they have some good players still. If Stevens can manage some more Pressey, Crowder, Wallace combos we can lock down a top 8 pick and a decent top 3 pick lotto shot.

http://www.libertyballers.com/
That is the ultimate tank. They risking way too much by not establishing better chemistry and development. We have developing talent playing OK minutes together with good bench guys. Philly is putting out almost full DL roster and rooks.
I want a productive development year that still gets Cs a top 10 pick.

You don't understand. Poor, poor child.
No I did understand. Sixer's are over kill to compare my views to their all out views.

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #122 on: February 21, 2015, 10:28:41 PM »

Offline mef730

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on thursday, tankathon.com had the celtics at #11 in the draft, with a 3.3% chance at a top 3 pick.

today, after one single loss, the celtics are #9 in the draft, with a 6.1% chance at a top 3 pick. and they are 1.5 games out of the #6 slot.

right now, the draft positions from #6 to #11 have 6 teams separated by at total of TWO games. things are really volatile and where the celtics will end up is hard to predict.

What's funny is that the potential draftees between #6 and #11 are just as volatile as the standings of the teams that could draft them.  There just isn't that much talent difference within that group and the mock drafts are going to be shuffling them up and down until draft day. 

That could be to our benefit.  In a normal year, moving from an 11 to, say, #8, would be difficult.  The Clippers pick wouldn't be enough to do it.  This year, though, that whole second tier of players is almost interchangeable, particularly if you are going BPA. 

I'm really looking forward to the Nets picks in 16 and especially 2017.  I don't want to go too far OT, but Thad Young actually makes Brooklyn better.  What are the chances that he opts out this summer?  I don't know if he'll get >$9m elsewhere. 

Mike


Thad young resigns
Too many good PF in the league so he wouldn't really command that money else where
Besides Brooklyn should be happy they get a nice young player in an era where they wont get another first round draft pick until 2019

Thanks, that's what I was afraid of.  I really don't want them to have anyone good. :D

BTW, they do get a pick in 2017.  We just have a right to switch with them.  Not sure what our pick will look like.

Mike

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #123 on: February 27, 2015, 09:12:05 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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STANDINGS WATCH  as of 2/27/15
Boston Pick
#9 right now based on winning %
            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Miami              +2.5                  25                      26               5-5
Brooklyn          +1                     23                      27                5-5
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Charlotte          +1                    23                      27               4-6
Detroit              even                23(+1)                25                6-4
Indiana             even                 23(+1)               25                7-3
Boston            even                22                      27                 6-4
Utah                  1.5                   21                       26                5-5
Sacramento       2                     20                       27                4-6
Denver             2.5                    20                     25                1-9

--> Denver and Sac falling off the pace while the C's picking it up.  C's might be looking at #8 at best is this keeps up.

Clips Pick #23
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Houston            +2.5                     39                   25                 6-4
Portland           +1                       37                   26                 5-5
Dallas               +1                       39                   22                 6-4
Toronto             +.5                      37                   25                 5-5
Clippers            even                     37                   24                 4-6
Cleveland         .5                        37                   23                 8-2
Chicago              1                         36                   24                 6-4
SA                    2.5                       34                   25                4-6

-->Clips continuing to slide without Blake.  Cleveland should pass them in the next week.  Chicago may not be a threat without Rose.  SA can't seem to put together that late push to improve their standings. 

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #124 on: February 27, 2015, 01:53:26 PM »

Offline CFAN38

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STANDINGS WATCH  as of 2/27/15
Boston Pick
#9 right now based on winning %
            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Miami              +2.5                  25                      26               5-5
Brooklyn          +1                     23                      27                5-5
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Charlotte          +1                    23                      27               4-6
Detroit              even                23(+1)                25                6-4
Indiana             even                 23(+1)               25                7-3
Boston            even                22                      27                 6-4
Utah                  1.5                   21                       26                5-5
Sacramento       2                     20                       27                4-6
Denver             2.5                    20                     25                1-9

--> Denver and Sac falling off the pace while the C's picking it up.  C's might be looking at #8 at best is this keeps up.

Clips Pick #23
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Houston            +2.5                     39                   25                 6-4
Portland           +1                       37                   26                 5-5
Dallas               +1                       39                   22                 6-4
Toronto             +.5                      37                   25                 5-5
Clippers            even                     37                   24                 4-6
Cleveland         .5                        37                   23                 8-2
Chicago              1                         36                   24                 6-4
SA                    2.5                       34                   25                4-6

-->Clips continuing to slide without Blake.  Cleveland should pass them in the next week.  Chicago may not be a threat without Rose.  SA can't seem to put together that late push to improve their standings.

Coming off a win vs Memphis and having 5 game left vs the elite tank teams (NY, LAL and 76ers) I expect Sac to pass the Cs at some point. Im figuring the Cs end up at #8 and #23.
Mavs
Wiz
Hornet

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #125 on: February 27, 2015, 02:07:44 PM »

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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STANDINGS WATCH  as of 2/27/15


TP for the info and meticulous formatting.  Pick 9 would be great.  It's going to go like this:

Okafor, Mudiay & Russell top 3
Towns, Stanley Johnson & Hezonja 4-6

Then the next group of:

Myles Turner, WCS, Porzingis, Justice Winslow, Kevon Looney (0% chance we draft him) & Kelly Oubre

I have no idea how that second group shakes out, but any of them would be great


Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #126 on: February 27, 2015, 02:25:36 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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thanks for the praise.  TP back to ya Q. 

WCS at 9 would be a welcome surprise

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #127 on: February 27, 2015, 02:34:59 PM »

Offline blink

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STANDINGS WATCH  as of 2/27/15


TP for the info and meticulous formatting.  Pick 9 would be great.  It's going to go like this:

Okafor, Mudiay & Russell top 3
Towns, Stanley Johnson & Hezonja 4-6

Then the next group of:

Myles Turner, WCS, Porzingis, Justice Winslow, Kevon Looney (0% chance we draft him) & Kelly Oubre

I have no idea how that second group shakes out, but any of them would be great

Yeah the group of players anticipated from 7-12 are all interesting prospects.  If WCS isn't available, or we trade for a big prior to using our pick, who knows which way we would go.  Turner and Oubre have been impressive during the big12 conf schedule.  Both players are getting better and better as the season goes along.  If James Young can't learn to play D, Oubre would be a nice substitute because he is already a talented def player.

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #128 on: February 27, 2015, 02:42:50 PM »

Offline mef730

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STANDINGS WATCH  as of 2/27/15
Boston Pick
#9 right now based on winning %
            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Miami              +2.5                  25                      26               5-5
Brooklyn          +1                     23                      27                5-5
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Charlotte          +1                    23                      27               4-6
Detroit              even                23(+1)                25                6-4
Indiana             even                 23(+1)               25                7-3
Boston            even                22                      27                 6-4
Utah                  1.5                   21                       26                5-5
Sacramento       2                     20                       27                4-6
Denver             2.5                    20                     25                1-9

--> Denver and Sac falling off the pace while the C's picking it up.  C's might be looking at #8 at best is this keeps up.

Clips Pick #23
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Houston            +2.5                     39                   25                 6-4
Portland           +1                       37                   26                 5-5
Dallas               +1                       39                   22                 6-4
Toronto             +.5                      37                   25                 5-5
Clippers            even                     37                   24                 4-6
Cleveland         .5                        37                   23                 8-2
Chicago              1                         36                   24                 6-4
SA                    2.5                       34                   25                4-6

-->Clips continuing to slide without Blake.  Cleveland should pass them in the next week.  Chicago may not be a threat without Rose.  SA can't seem to put together that late push to improve their standings.

Coming off a win vs Memphis and having 5 game left vs the elite tank teams (NY, LAL and 76ers) I expect Sac to pass the Cs at some point. Im figuring the Cs end up at #8 and #23.

CFAN gets a TP because I came here with the intention of showing you why that statement about Sac passing the Cs is wrong, and it turns out that I was wrong (I'll blame it on the schedulers.). 

With the understanding that we are 2 games ahead of SAC in the standings, here is a peek at the remainder of the schedule for both teams:

Celtics:
Games remaining against teams with a worse record: 5
Games remaining against teams with a win % >.600 (includes San Antonio): 8
Home games remaining: 13

Sac:
Games remaining against teams with a worse record: 9 (includes one win out of 2 games against Utah, which is the only team btw the Celts and Sac in the rankings)
Games remaining against teams >.600: 7
Home games remaining: 16

The only area where we have it easier is that their dreck looks better than our dreck.  Of the remaining games, only 3 of the teams that they play are under .500, while 8 of our games are.

I just banged that out, so sorry if I missed a few.

Mike


Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #129 on: February 27, 2015, 03:25:33 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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STANDINGS WATCH  as of 2/27/15
Boston Pick
#9 right now based on winning %
            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Miami              +2.5                  25                      26               5-5
Brooklyn          +1                     23                      27                5-5
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Charlotte          +1                    23                      27               4-6
Detroit              even                23(+1)                25                6-4
Indiana             even                 23(+1)               25                7-3
Boston            even                22                      27                 6-4
Utah                  1.5                   21                       26                5-5
Sacramento       2                     20                       27                4-6
Denver             2.5                    20                     25                1-9

--> Denver and Sac falling off the pace while the C's picking it up.  C's might be looking at #8 at best is this keeps up.

Clips Pick #23
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Houston            +2.5                     39                   25                 6-4
Portland           +1                       37                   26                 5-5
Dallas               +1                       39                   22                 6-4
Toronto             +.5                      37                   25                 5-5
Clippers            even                     37                   24                 4-6
Cleveland         .5                        37                   23                 8-2
Chicago              1                         36                   24                 6-4
SA                    2.5                       34                   25                4-6

-->Clips continuing to slide without Blake.  Cleveland should pass them in the next week.  Chicago may not be a threat without Rose.  SA can't seem to put together that late push to improve their standings.

Coming off a win vs Memphis and having 5 game left vs the elite tank teams (NY, LAL and 76ers) I expect Sac to pass the Cs at some point. Im figuring the Cs end up at #8 and #23.

CFAN gets a TP because I came here with the intention of showing you why that statement about Sac passing the Cs is wrong, and it turns out that I was wrong (I'll blame it on the schedulers.). 

With the understanding that we are 2 games ahead of SAC in the standings, here is a peek at the remainder of the schedule for both teams:

Celtics:
Games remaining against teams with a worse record: 5
Games remaining against teams with a win % >.600 (includes San Antonio): 8
Home games remaining: 13

Sac:
Games remaining against teams with a worse record: 9 (includes one win out of 2 games against Utah, which is the only team btw the Celts and Sac in the rankings)
Games remaining against teams >.600: 7
Home games remaining: 16

The only area where we have it easier is that their dreck looks better than our dreck.  Of the remaining games, only 3 of the teams that they play are under .500, while 8 of our games are.

I just banged that out, so sorry if I missed a few.

Mike
not sure why you'd feel compelled to come here just to tell me I'm wrong but whatever. 

My observations are based on how things have gone since my last posting of the standings which would be accurate considering Sac has fallen off the pace since the all-star break.  As things wind down during the season I'll probably start taking a look at the bigger picture and throwing in my 2 cents. 

By all means feel free to throw in your 2 cents as well whether you agree or disagree but please keep in mind I'm not passing this off as an intense scouting report and/or speculation of things to come but just as a helpful (hopefully helpful) piece of info people can refer to if they want to see how the C's and Clips stand in relation to their draft position.

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #130 on: February 27, 2015, 03:35:44 PM »

Offline mef730

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STANDINGS WATCH  as of 2/27/15
Boston Pick
#9 right now based on winning %
            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Miami              +2.5                  25                      26               5-5
Brooklyn          +1                     23                      27                5-5
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Charlotte          +1                    23                      27               4-6
Detroit              even                23(+1)                25                6-4
Indiana             even                 23(+1)               25                7-3
Boston            even                22                      27                 6-4
Utah                  1.5                   21                       26                5-5
Sacramento       2                     20                       27                4-6
Denver             2.5                    20                     25                1-9

--> Denver and Sac falling off the pace while the C's picking it up.  C's might be looking at #8 at best is this keeps up.

Clips Pick #23
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Houston            +2.5                     39                   25                 6-4
Portland           +1                       37                   26                 5-5
Dallas               +1                       39                   22                 6-4
Toronto             +.5                      37                   25                 5-5
Clippers            even                     37                   24                 4-6
Cleveland         .5                        37                   23                 8-2
Chicago              1                         36                   24                 6-4
SA                    2.5                       34                   25                4-6

-->Clips continuing to slide without Blake.  Cleveland should pass them in the next week.  Chicago may not be a threat without Rose.  SA can't seem to put together that late push to improve their standings.

Coming off a win vs Memphis and having 5 game left vs the elite tank teams (NY, LAL and 76ers) I expect Sac to pass the Cs at some point. Im figuring the Cs end up at #8 and #23.

CFAN gets a TP because I came here with the intention of showing you why that statement about Sac passing the Cs is wrong, and it turns out that I was wrong (I'll blame it on the schedulers.). 

With the understanding that we are 2 games ahead of SAC in the standings, here is a peek at the remainder of the schedule for both teams:

Celtics:
Games remaining against teams with a worse record: 5
Games remaining against teams with a win % >.600 (includes San Antonio): 8
Home games remaining: 13

Sac:
Games remaining against teams with a worse record: 9 (includes one win out of 2 games against Utah, which is the only team btw the Celts and Sac in the rankings)
Games remaining against teams >.600: 7
Home games remaining: 16

The only area where we have it easier is that their dreck looks better than our dreck.  Of the remaining games, only 3 of the teams that they play are under .500, while 8 of our games are.

I just banged that out, so sorry if I missed a few.

Mike
not sure why you'd feel compelled to come here just to tell me I'm wrong but whatever. 

My observations are based on how things have gone since my last posting of the standings which would be accurate considering Sac has fallen off the pace since the all-star break.  As things wind down during the season I'll probably start taking a look at the bigger picture and throwing in my 2 cents. 

By all means feel free to throw in your 2 cents as well whether you agree or disagree but please keep in mind I'm not passing this off as an intense scouting report and/or speculation of things to come but just as a helpful (hopefully helpful) piece of info people can refer to if they want to see how the C's and Clips stand in relation to their draft position.

Wasn't you, it was CFAN. ;)  But here's what happened:

 But my apologies, apparently, I phrased it poorly; I was actually being self-deprecating.  After reading CFAN's post about Sacramento having an easier schedule than we do and being likely to pass us, I was sure that he/she was wrong.  But after I actually bothered to look at the schedule and figure out who each team was playing, I realized that CFAN was right and I was wrong. 

Sigh, my brain goes soft on Fridays.

Mike
« Last Edit: February 27, 2015, 03:45:57 PM by mef730 »

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #131 on: March 03, 2015, 09:29:53 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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STANDINGS WATCH  as of 2/27/15
Boston Pick
#9 right now based on winning %
            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Miami              +2.5                  25                      26               5-5
Brooklyn          +1                     23                      27                5-5
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Charlotte          +1                    23                      27               4-6
Detroit              even                23(+1)                25                6-4
Indiana             even                 23(+1)               25                7-3
Boston            even                22                      27                 6-4
Utah                  1.5                   21                       26                5-5
Sacramento       2                     20                       27                4-6
Denver             2.5                    20                     25                1-9

--> Denver and Sac falling off the pace while the C's picking it up.  C's might be looking at #8 at best is this keeps up.

Clips Pick #23
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Houston            +2.5                     39                   25                 6-4
Portland           +1                       37                   26                 5-5
Dallas               +1                       39                   22                 6-4
Toronto             +.5                      37                   25                 5-5
Clippers            even                     37                   24                 4-6
Cleveland         .5                        37                   23                 8-2
Chicago              1                         36                   24                 6-4
SA                    2.5                       34                   25                4-6

-->Clips continuing to slide without Blake.  Cleveland should pass them in the next week.  Chicago may not be a threat without Rose.  SA can't seem to put together that late push to improve their standings.

Coming off a win vs Memphis and having 5 game left vs the elite tank teams (NY, LAL and 76ers) I expect Sac to pass the Cs at some point. Im figuring the Cs end up at #8 and #23.

CFAN gets a TP because I came here with the intention of showing you why that statement about Sac passing the Cs is wrong, and it turns out that I was wrong (I'll blame it on the schedulers.). 

With the understanding that we are 2 games ahead of SAC in the standings, here is a peek at the remainder of the schedule for both teams:

Celtics:
Games remaining against teams with a worse record: 5
Games remaining against teams with a win % >.600 (includes San Antonio): 8
Home games remaining: 13

Sac:
Games remaining against teams with a worse record: 9 (includes one win out of 2 games against Utah, which is the only team btw the Celts and Sac in the rankings)
Games remaining against teams >.600: 7
Home games remaining: 16

The only area where we have it easier is that their dreck looks better than our dreck.  Of the remaining games, only 3 of the teams that they play are under .500, while 8 of our games are.

I just banged that out, so sorry if I missed a few.

Mike
not sure why you'd feel compelled to come here just to tell me I'm wrong but whatever. 

My observations are based on how things have gone since my last posting of the standings which would be accurate considering Sac has fallen off the pace since the all-star break.  As things wind down during the season I'll probably start taking a look at the bigger picture and throwing in my 2 cents. 

By all means feel free to throw in your 2 cents as well whether you agree or disagree but please keep in mind I'm not passing this off as an intense scouting report and/or speculation of things to come but just as a helpful (hopefully helpful) piece of info people can refer to if they want to see how the C's and Clips stand in relation to their draft position.

Wasn't you, it was CFAN. ;)  But here's what happened:

 But my apologies, apparently, I phrased it poorly; I was actually being self-deprecating.  After reading CFAN's post about Sacramento having an easier schedule than we do and being likely to pass us, I was sure that he/she was wrong.  But after I actually bothered to look at the schedule and figure out who each team was playing, I realized that CFAN was right and I was wrong. 

Sigh, my brain goes soft on Fridays.

Mike
My misunderstanding.  TP for setting me straight

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #132 on: March 06, 2015, 09:44:17 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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STANDINGS WATCH  as of 3/6/15
Boston Pick
#10 right now based on winning %
            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Miami              +2.5                  27                      22               6-4
Charlotte          +2                    26                      23               4-6
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Indiana             +1.5                 26                     22                8-2
Brooklyn          +1                     25                     23                4-6
Boston            even                24                      23                 5-5
Utah                  .5                    24                       22                7-3
Detroit               1.5                  23                      22                4-6
Denver              3                    22                      21                 3-7
Sacramento       3                    21                      23                4-6

--> Denver and Sac continue to fall off the pace while the C's picking it up.  C's more and more looking at #8 at best if this keeps up.

Clips Pick #25
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Portland           +2                       41                   22                 7-3
Houston            +1.5                     41                   21                 6-4
Clippers            even                     40                   20                 7-3
Dallas               .5                        40                   19                 5-5
Chicago              1                         39                   20                 7-3
Toronto              1.5                      38                   21                 4-6
Cleveland         1.5                       39                  19                 7-3
SA                    2                         37                   22                5-5

-->Clips seem to be stabilizing now without Blake.  Finding it hard to believe they haven't fallen more by now and that the teams behind them can't put it together long enough to pass them.

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #133 on: March 06, 2015, 02:40:10 PM »

Offline mef730

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As always, TP for the effort. 

I was really hoping that Sacramento would start winning, but with only 23 games left, a 3-win difference is a heck of a hurdle.  I was counting on our really tough April schedule to bail us out, but if the top of the playoffs picture is in order by that time, Toronto and Cleveland might rest their starters.  Brooklyn and Indiana seem to be holding in, so I'm hopeful that they won't pass us. 

For teams that we could catch, I think Denver is a lost cause.  They're just a mess.  I'm surprised Detroit isn't doing better, though.  We have two more against them between now and the end of the year.

And just for the sake of fairness, if we end up tied with Utah again, I vote that we should get the pick this year, since they got it last year.

Mike

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #134 on: March 06, 2015, 02:45:57 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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As always, TP for the effort. 

I was really hoping that Sacramento would start winning, but with only 23 games left, a 3-win difference is a heck of a hurdle.  I was counting on our really tough April schedule to bail us out, but if the top of the playoffs picture is in order by that time, Toronto and Cleveland might rest their starters.  Brooklyn and Indiana seem to be holding in, so I'm hopeful that they won't pass us. 

For teams that we could catch, I think Denver is a lost cause.  They're just a mess.  I'm surprised Detroit isn't doing better, though.  We have two more against them between now and the end of the year.

And just for the sake of fairness, if we end up tied with Utah again, I vote that we should get the pick this year, since they got it last year.

Mike

It seems weird to be focusing on the lottery when we are 2 games out of the playoffs... I think everyone can agree rooting for wins is more fun than losses. Second, it is not like we are in the in the first or second spot where we are really changing our chances of a top 3 pick. Maybe worry about this after we get eliminated from the playoffs and it is the last week of the season where a win by sacramento and Utah can get us two spots higher.  Right now it just seems like a depressing exercise in futility.