Author Topic: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015  (Read 66821 times)

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Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #180 on: March 17, 2015, 09:34:31 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Potentially a really good night for our Clips pick, with the Grizzlies, Spurs, Rockets and Pelicans all most likely coming out with wins.

If the Hornets can somehow beat the Clips, which I am rooting for because I don't see the Hornets overcoming us even if they win tonight, it will go a long way to getting us a pick in the low 20s instead of the mid 20s.  Dallas and the Clippers are both 5-5 in their last 10 games, while NO is 7-3 and looks to be locking up a win tonight.  My dream scenario of us getting the 6th seed and the Clippers giving us an unprotected lottery pick is coming closer to fruition.
tough call there.

hope for Clips to miss playoffs means Dallas stays in so we don't get their pick but Clips is unprotected but extremely unlikely to move up from #14.  on the other hand, if Dallas misses playoffs they'd be unlikely to move up from #14 and C's would get the Clips at hopefully something in the high teens.  C's with 3 picks in the teens could help add some good players for next year or give them a chance to combine 2 to move up to around 9-10

Dallas isn't in the lottery this year.  People need to give that up.  They are 6 games ahead of New Orleans, whom they hold a tiebreaker over, with 14 games to go.  Not to mention their sizable lead over an OKC team that's now without Ibaka and Durant. They'd have to fall below both of them.  They'd probably have to 3-11 over that stretch for New Orleans to have a chance.  They're not going 3-11.

If the Clippers lose games, we'll get a better pick this year, even if they make the playoffs.  Makes sense to keep rooting for one thing.  Maybe we'll get pick 21, which would be fine.

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #181 on: March 17, 2015, 09:51:02 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Potentially a really good night for our Clips pick, with the Grizzlies, Spurs, Rockets and Pelicans all most likely coming out with wins.

If the Hornets can somehow beat the Clips, which I am rooting for because I don't see the Hornets overcoming us even if they win tonight, it will go a long way to getting us a pick in the low 20s instead of the mid 20s.  Dallas and the Clippers are both 5-5 in their last 10 games, while NO is 7-3 and looks to be locking up a win tonight.  My dream scenario of us getting the 6th seed and the Clippers giving us an unprotected lottery pick is coming closer to fruition.
tough call there.

hope for Clips to miss playoffs means Dallas stays in so we don't get their pick but Clips is unprotected but extremely unlikely to move up from #14.  on the other hand, if Dallas misses playoffs they'd be unlikely to move up from #14 and C's would get the Clips at hopefully something in the high teens.  C's with 3 picks in the teens could help add some good players for next year or give them a chance to combine 2 to move up to around 9-10

Dallas isn't in the lottery this year.  People need to give that up.  They are 6 games ahead of New Orleans, whom they hold a tiebreaker over, with 14 games to go.  Not to mention their sizable lead over an OKC team that's now without Ibaka and Durant. They'd have to fall below both of them.  They'd probably have to 3-11 over that stretch for New Orleans to have a chance.  They're not going 3-11.

If the Clippers lose games, we'll get a better pick this year, even if they make the playoffs.  Makes sense to keep rooting for one thing.  Maybe we'll get pick 21, which would be fine.

don't get me wrong - I'm not saying either will miss the playoffs.  just hypothesizing if either could miss, which to root for.

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #182 on: March 17, 2015, 10:04:08 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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Potentially a really good night for our Clips pick, with the Grizzlies, Spurs, Rockets and Pelicans all most likely coming out with wins.

If the Hornets can somehow beat the Clips, which I am rooting for because I don't see the Hornets overcoming us even if they win tonight, it will go a long way to getting us a pick in the low 20s instead of the mid 20s.  Dallas and the Clippers are both 5-5 in their last 10 games, while NO is 7-3 and looks to be locking up a win tonight.  My dream scenario of us getting the 6th seed and the Clippers giving us an unprotected lottery pick is coming closer to fruition.
tough call there.

hope for Clips to miss playoffs means Dallas stays in so we don't get their pick but Clips is unprotected but extremely unlikely to move up from #14.  on the other hand, if Dallas misses playoffs they'd be unlikely to move up from #14 and C's would get the Clips at hopefully something in the high teens.  C's with 3 picks in the teens could help add some good players for next year or give them a chance to combine 2 to move up to around 9-10

Dallas isn't in the lottery this year.  People need to give that up.  They are 6 games ahead of New Orleans, whom they hold a tiebreaker over, with 14 games to go.  Not to mention their sizable lead over an OKC team that's now without Ibaka and Durant. They'd have to fall below both of them.  They'd probably have to 3-11 over that stretch for New Orleans to have a chance.  They're not going 3-11.

If the Clippers lose games, we'll get a better pick this year, even if they make the playoffs.  Makes sense to keep rooting for one thing.  Maybe we'll get pick 21, which would be fine.

don't get me wrong - I'm not saying either will miss the playoffs.  just hypothesizing if either could miss, which to root for.
Obviously root for the Clips to lose because we're getting their pick this year no matter what.  Chandler and Rondo are free agents and Ellis has a player option so there is a chance that Dallas gets significantly worse next year. 

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #183 on: March 17, 2015, 10:12:15 PM »

Offline mef730

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Potentially a really good night for our Clips pick, with the Grizzlies, Spurs, Rockets and Pelicans all most likely coming out with wins.

If the Hornets can somehow beat the Clips, which I am rooting for because I don't see the Hornets overcoming us even if they win tonight, it will go a long way to getting us a pick in the low 20s instead of the mid 20s.  Dallas and the Clippers are both 5-5 in their last 10 games, while NO is 7-3 and looks to be locking up a win tonight.  My dream scenario of us getting the 6th seed and the Clippers giving us an unprotected lottery pick is coming closer to fruition.
tough call there.

hope for Clips to miss playoffs means Dallas stays in so we don't get their pick but Clips is unprotected but extremely unlikely to move up from #14.  on the other hand, if Dallas misses playoffs they'd be unlikely to move up from #14 and C's would get the Clips at hopefully something in the high teens.  C's with 3 picks in the teens could help add some good players for next year or give them a chance to combine 2 to move up to around 9-10

Dallas isn't in the lottery this year.  People need to give that up.  They are 6 games ahead of New Orleans, whom they hold a tiebreaker over, with 14 games to go.  Not to mention their sizable lead over an OKC team that's now without Ibaka and Durant. They'd have to fall below both of them.  They'd probably have to 3-11 over that stretch for New Orleans to have a chance.  They're not going 3-11.

If the Clippers lose games, we'll get a better pick this year, even if they make the playoffs.  Makes sense to keep rooting for one thing.  Maybe we'll get pick 21, which would be fine.

I can't speak for others, but I would be disappointed if Dallas did end up in the lottery this year.  I think they will be a 7-10 lottery pick next year.

Mike

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #184 on: March 17, 2015, 11:04:44 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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Potentially a really good night for our Clips pick, with the Grizzlies, Spurs, Rockets and Pelicans all most likely coming out with wins.

If the Hornets can somehow beat the Clips, which I am rooting for because I don't see the Hornets overcoming us even if they win tonight, it will go a long way to getting us a pick in the low 20s instead of the mid 20s.  Dallas and the Clippers are both 5-5 in their last 10 games, while NO is 7-3 and looks to be locking up a win tonight.  My dream scenario of us getting the 6th seed and the Clippers giving us an unprotected lottery pick is coming closer to fruition.
tough call there.

hope for Clips to miss playoffs means Dallas stays in so we don't get their pick but Clips is unprotected but extremely unlikely to move up from #14.  on the other hand, if Dallas misses playoffs they'd be unlikely to move up from #14 and C's would get the Clips at hopefully something in the high teens.  C's with 3 picks in the teens could help add some good players for next year or give them a chance to combine 2 to move up to around 9-10

Dallas isn't in the lottery this year.  People need to give that up.  They are 6 games ahead of New Orleans, whom they hold a tiebreaker over, with 14 games to go.  Not to mention their sizable lead over an OKC team that's now without Ibaka and Durant. They'd have to fall below both of them.  They'd probably have to 3-11 over that stretch for New Orleans to have a chance.  They're not going 3-11.

If the Clippers lose games, we'll get a better pick this year, even if they make the playoffs.  Makes sense to keep rooting for one thing.  Maybe we'll get pick 21, which would be fine.

I can't speak for others, but I would be disappointed if Dallas did end up in the lottery this year.  I think they will be a 7-10 lottery pick next year.

Mike
I doubt they miss the playoffs next year but even if they do they'd be 9th or 10th in the west and therefore 13th or 14th in the lottery. 

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #185 on: March 18, 2015, 01:09:56 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Potentially a really good night for our Clips pick, with the Grizzlies, Spurs, Rockets and Pelicans all most likely coming out with wins.

If the Hornets can somehow beat the Clips, which I am rooting for because I don't see the Hornets overcoming us even if they win tonight, it will go a long way to getting us a pick in the low 20s instead of the mid 20s.  Dallas and the Clippers are both 5-5 in their last 10 games, while NO is 7-3 and looks to be locking up a win tonight.  My dream scenario of us getting the 6th seed and the Clippers giving us an unprotected lottery pick is coming closer to fruition.

I think best to let the night play-out quietly next time lol.

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #186 on: March 20, 2015, 11:51:11 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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STANDINGS WATCH  as of 3/20/15
Boston Pick
#11 (2-way tie) right now based on winning % but would get #15 as the 8th seed based on the tie breaker with Indiana

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Miami              +1                    31                      15               6-4
Utah                 +.5                   31                      14               8-2  different conference
Boston            even                30                      15                 7-3
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Indiana             even                 30                      15                 7-3
Charlotte           .5                    29                       16               6-4
Brooklyn           2.5                   27                      16                4-6

--> C's in the playoffs based on the tiebreaker with Indy which would give them #15 right now.  hard to believe how fast they've climbed up (and now out of) the lottery standings.

Clips Pick #24 (2-way tie)
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Houston            +2.5                     46                   14                 6-4
Portland           +1.5                     44                   16                 7-3
Clippers            even                     44                   13                 6-4
Dallas             even                     44                   13                5-5
Cleveland         .5                        44                   12                 7-3
SA                    1                        42                   15                 8-2
Toronto              2.5                      41                   14                 4-6
Chicago              3                         41                   13                 4-6

--> jockeying for position.  still hoping Dallas pulls away and that Cleveland and SA catch and pass them.  would give them (us) #22.

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #187 on: March 27, 2015, 08:50:11 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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STANDINGS WATCH  as of 3/27/15
Boston Pick
#13 (2-way tie) right now based on winning % but would get #15 as the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Miami              +2                    33                      11               6-4
Utah                 even                 31                      11               6-4  different conference
Boston            even                31                      11                 6-4
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Indiana              .5                    31                      10                 3-7
Charlotte            .5                    30                       12               3-7
Brooklyn            .5                    30                      12                5-5

--> C's remain in the playoffs at the moment.  3 teams just a half game behind them in the conference though.  Their draft position could swing from #15 to #9 overnight.

Clips Pick #26
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Houston            +1.5                     48                   11                 7-3
Clippers            even                     47                   10                 7-3
Cleveland         .5                        47                   9                  8-2
Portland            1                        45                   12                 4-6
SA                    1.5                      45                  11                 7-3
Dallas               2                         45                   10                5-5

--> still jockeying for position but looks like they're firmly ahead of Chicago and Toronto so I've dropped those teams from standings.  getting frustrated that SA and Cleveland still haven't caught them and now they have Blake.
Also frustrated that Portland and Dallas aren't making a late push to put the Clips behind them. 

Of note (to me anyways), the first team of the ones I'm tracking (Cleveland) now has only single-digit games remaining.  season is nearing the end.

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #188 on: March 27, 2015, 10:37:01 AM »

Offline mef730

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(Sorry, this post turned out to be longer than I thought it would be.)  tl;dr: I think we're a lottery team.)

TP, because I always read this thread, even if I don't have a chance to comment (Although, as my wife would tell you, it is rare that I don't have a comment for something.).

What makes this year's races (draft and playoffs) so interesting is how tightly teams are bunched.  Talk about every game matters!  It's all going to come down to strength of schedule remaining (SOS), and it doesn't look great for the C's if you are rooting for the playoffs.  Two caveats:

A) A lot of this analysis is going to depend on which teams rest players at the end of the season.  In the east, it looks like ATL and CLE have the top 2 locked up.  There could be some movement within the 3,4,5 seeds, while Milwaukee will probably stay at 6th.  Miami (7-seed) is 2 up on the 8-seed, and here's where it gets interesting:

Miami would beat us and Brooklyn, based on head-to-head, in a tie-breaker.

Miami would lose to Indy and Charlotte, based on divisional record (if it wins its remaining games against each team).  It leads each team by 2.5, having played one fewer than Indy and one more than Charlotte.

Then, it becomes a big round-robin in the tie-breaker scheme if there are multiple teams tied.

Confusing much?

B)  My analysis isn't based on much "analysis."  I wish I had a little more time to go through the numbers in depth, but I don't, so this analysis is strictly anecdotal.

Boston (11 games left): We do not have an easy schedule.  We have the Clippers on Sunday, and two each against Cleveland, Toronto and Milwaukee.  Cleveland could rest players and still beat us (and they still have two games after those against us; better to rest them then).  Milwaukee may rest players in the second game against us.  But unless it has some real separation, Toronto is playing hard.  We're also playing at Charlotte (pick 'em), and have games at Detroit and New York, while home against Indy.  I don't see a lot of easy wins in there.

Indy (10 games left): Not a particularly easy schedule, but not terrible.  The plus side is that we win the tie-breaker against them.  Their hardest games remaining are home against Dallas and at Memphis.  The Memphis game is the last of the season, so maybe Memphis rests players.  They play Brooklyn, the Knicks, Detroit and us on the road, Charlotte, Miami, OKC and Washington at home.  I anticipate that they'll pick up that game they need to catch us.

Charlotte (12 games left): Also a mixed schedule.  Tough games home/away against ATL, home/away against Toronto.  We play them in Charlotte next week (2nd game in two nights, 3rd in four for us) and if they win, they win the tie-breaker.  If they lose, we win the tie-breaker*.  They are also home/away against Detroit and play a few mixed games, including at Indy (And if they lose to Indy, that still hurts us, which is bad, since it hurts us if they win at Indy.), home against Philly and a few others.  I think they'll have enough wins to squeak by.

Brooklyn (12 games remaining): The good news is that, well, it's Brooklyn, so they have the potential to lose any given game on any given night.  But nine of their last 12 are at home, even if three of those games are against Cleveland, Toronto and Atlanta (They also play at Atlanta.).  But there's a few games in there that they should win, including home against the Lakers, Pacers (see above situation with Charlotte), Orlando and at the Knicks.  Also some odds and ends in there that include Portland, Washington, Milwaukee and Chicago.  Truthfully, I have no idea which way this team shakes out.

Here's what matters, though: Only one of the above teams needs to pass us.  They all look like they have easier schedules than we do.

Bonus analysis: We are tied with Utah (11 games remaining).  Since they're not competing against us for the playoffs, only for the lottery, we should be rooting for them.  But they're in the west, so they have to have a tough schedule, right?  Not so much.  Home/away against Denver and Sacramento.  Home against OKC, which could go either way.  At Phoenix in early April, which should be a PHX win.  The downside is that their last four games are against Memphis, Portland, Dallas and Houston, all four of which they could lose.  Of course, our last four are 2 X Cleveland, Toronto and Milwaukee, all of which we could lose.  Whoever goes into their last four games behind has the "advantage," at least as it pertains to the lottery.  And since they won the coin flip last year, I think it's only fair that we get it this year.

Mike

*ETA: We lose the tie-breaker to Charlotte based on conference record.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2015, 12:11:17 PM by mef730 »

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #189 on: March 27, 2015, 01:04:00 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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TP for your commentary mef.  looking forward to seeing how the next 3 weeks shake out for the team

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #190 on: March 27, 2015, 02:06:00 PM »

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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http://deadspin.com/blake-griffins-austin-rivers-impression-is-so-cold-and-1694079631#

I'm not sure if this is going to help our pick because it will hurt their morale, or hurt it because Rivers will get so shook that he stops getting played

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #191 on: March 29, 2015, 10:33:40 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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http://deadspin.com/blake-griffins-austin-rivers-impression-is-so-cold-and-1694079631#

I'm not sure if this is going to help our pick because it will hurt their morale, or hurt it because Rivers will get so shook that he stops getting played
didn't seem to matter tonight unfortunately

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #192 on: April 03, 2015, 09:07:32 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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STANDINGS WATCH  as of 4/3/15
Boston Pick
#11 (3-way tie) right now based on winning % but due to tiebreakers, Miami gets the 8th playoff spot and C's are tied with Utah for that #11 pick

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Brooklyn          +.5                    34                     8                8-2
Miami              even                  34                     7                5-5
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Utah                 even                  34                     7               5-5  different conference
Boston            even                  34                     7               5-5
Charlotte            1.5                    32                    8                3-7
Indiana               2                      32                     7                2-8

--> C's remain in the playoff hunt at the moment.  5 teams still battling for 2 spots in the East.  With so few games left, Bucks probably won't drop back into that mix to make it 6 teams fighting for 3 spots -->if there were another 5 games left in the season I'd think differently.  Really looking like that C's are going to wind up with either #11, #12 (lose coin flip to Utah again) or #15.

Clips Pick #26
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Houston              +2                       52                   6                 8-2
Memphis           +1.5                    51                    7                6-4
Clippers            even                    50                   6                 8-2
SA                     .5                       49                   7                 8-2
Portland             1                        48                   8                 4-6
Cleveland          1                        49                    6                 8-2

--> still jockeying for position but now Memphis has dropped into the mix.  still frustrated that SA and Cleveland still haven't caught them even though SA did it briefly this week.  Dallas has completely fallen off the chase so their now dropped from the list.  Portland is dropping fast as well.  Really hoping for a Clips collapse while the others pick up their games in the next 2 weeks to drop the Clips to #23

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #193 on: April 03, 2015, 09:27:24 AM »

Offline KeepRondo

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STANDINGS WATCH  as of 4/3/15
Boston Pick
#11 (3-way tie) right now based on winning % but due to tiebreakers, Miami gets the 8th playoff spot and C's are tied with Utah for that #11 pick

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Brooklyn          +.5                    34                     8                8-2
Miami              even                  34                     7                5-5
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Utah                 even                  34                     7               5-5  different conference
Boston            even                  34                     7               5-5
Charlotte            1.5                    32                    8                3-7
Indiana               2                      32                     7                2-8

--> C's remain in the playoff hunt at the moment.  5 teams still battling for 2 spots in the East.  With so few games left, Bucks probably won't drop back into that mix to make it 6 teams fighting for 3 spots -->if there were another 5 games left in the season I'd think differently.  Really looking like that C's are going to wind up with either #11, #12 (lose coin flip to Utah again) or #15.

Clips Pick #26
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Houston              +2                       52                   6                 8-2
Memphis           +1.5                    51                    7                6-4
Clippers            even                    50                   6                 8-2
SA                     .5                       49                   7                 8-2
Portland             1                        48                   8                 4-6
Cleveland          1                        49                    6                 8-2

--> still jockeying for position but now Memphis has dropped into the mix.  still frustrated that SA and Cleveland still haven't caught them even though SA did it briefly this week.  Dallas has completely fallen off the chase so their now dropped from the list.  Portland is dropping fast as well.  Really hoping for a Clips collapse while the others pick up their games in the next 2 weeks to drop the Clips to #23
I Don't see the clips collapsing. They are playing the best they have all season.

Re: Standings watch for C's picks in 2015
« Reply #194 on: April 03, 2015, 09:33:58 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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STANDINGS WATCH  as of 4/3/15
Boston Pick
#11 (3-way tie) right now based on winning % but due to tiebreakers, Miami gets the 8th playoff spot and C's are tied with Utah for that #11 pick

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Brooklyn          +.5                    34                     8                8-2
Miami              even                  34                     7                5-5
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Utah                 even                  34                     7               5-5  different conference
Boston            even                  34                     7               5-5
Charlotte            1.5                    32                    8                3-7
Indiana               2                      32                     7                2-8

--> C's remain in the playoff hunt at the moment.  5 teams still battling for 2 spots in the East.  With so few games left, Bucks probably won't drop back into that mix to make it 6 teams fighting for 3 spots -->if there were another 5 games left in the season I'd think differently.  Really looking like that C's are going to wind up with either #11, #12 (lose coin flip to Utah again) or #15.

Clips Pick #26
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Houston              +2                       52                   6                 8-2
Memphis           +1.5                    51                    7                6-4
Clippers            even                    50                   6                 8-2
SA                     .5                       49                   7                 8-2
Portland             1                        48                   8                 4-6
Cleveland          1                        49                    6                 8-2

--> still jockeying for position but now Memphis has dropped into the mix.  still frustrated that SA and Cleveland still haven't caught them even though SA did it briefly this week.  Dallas has completely fallen off the chase so their now dropped from the list.  Portland is dropping fast as well.  Really hoping for a Clips collapse while the others pick up their games in the next 2 weeks to drop the Clips to #23
I Don't see the clips collapsing. They are playing the best they have all season.
I don't see it either but I'm still hoping for it.  even just slightly tailing off would be satisfying if SA, Portland and Cleveland can pass them in the standings.