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Current Situation
« on: December 20, 2014, 11:23:12 AM »

Offline Fan from VT

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Where are we? Where are we going? I don't have answers, but:


Current Roster:

Gerald Wallace    $10,105,855.00
Jeff Green     $9,200,000.00
Marcus Thornton$8,697,500.00
Avery Bradley    $7,191,011.00
Brandon Bass    $6,950,000.00
Brandan Wright $5,000,000.00
Marcus Smart    $3,283,320.00
Evan Turner    $3,278,000.00
Will Bynum *    $2,915,908.00
Jameer Nelson    $2,732,000.00
Vitor Faverani    $2,090,000.00
Kelly Olynyk    $2,075,760.00
Tyler Zeller    $1,703,760.00
James Young    $1,674,480.00
Jared Sullinger    $1,424,520.00
Jae Crowder    $915,243.00
Phil Pressey    $816,482.00
Erik Murphy *    $100,000.00
Total            $70,153,839


Now for next year this is the roster:
Gerald Wallace    $10,105,855.00
Jeff Green            $9,200,000.00
Marcus Thornton    $-   
Avery Bradley    $7,730,337.00
Brandon Bass    $-   
Brandan Wright    $-   
Marcus Smart    $3,431,040.00
Evan Turner    $3,425,510.00
Will Bynum *    $-   
Jameer Nelson    $2,854,940.00
Vitor Faverani    $2,180,000.00
Kelly Olynyk    $2,165,160.00
Tyler Zeller    $2,616,975.00
James Young    $1,749,840.00
Jared Sullinger    $2,269,260.00
Jae Crowder    $1,181,348.00
Phil Pressey    $947,276.00
Erik Murphy *    $-   
Total                    $49,857,541


I think Green will decline his option and test free agency. Wright, Bass, and Thornton will also be FAs. If we renounce our bird rights on all of them, this will be the situation:

Gerald Wallace    $10,105,855.00
Avery Bradley    $7,730,337.00
Marcus Smart    $3,431,040.00
Evan Turner    $3,425,510.00
Jameer Nelson    $2,854,940.00
Kelly Olynyk    $2,165,160.00
Tyler Zeller    $2,616,975.00
James Young    $1,749,840.00
Jared Sullinger    $2,269,260.00
Jae Crowder    $1,181,348.00
Phil Pressey    $947,276.00
Total            $38,477,541


That's 11 players, so add 1 minimum salary:
Gerald Wallace    $10,105,855.00
Avery Bradley    $7,730,337.00
Marcus Smart    $3,431,040.00
Evan Turner    $3,425,510.00
Jameer Nelson    $2,854,940.00
Kelly Olynyk    $2,165,160.00
Tyler Zeller    $2,616,975.00
James Young    $1,749,840.00
Jared Sullinger    $2,269,260.00
Jae Crowder    $1,181,348.00
Phil Pressey    $947,276.00
Rookie Minimum    $525,093.00
Total                    $39,002,634.00


From Wikipedia:
The salary cap for the 2010?2011 season was $58.044 million and remained at that level for a further 2 seasons, for the 2013-2014 season the salary cap was $58.679 million and for the upcoming 2014-15 season, the salary cap will be $63.065 million.

Add an increase, say to 66,000,000. That means if you renounced all FAs and had the above roster, the C's would have 27,000,000 or so to work with. Of course, you have to take out rookie salaries; the C's will probably have a couple picks, and one might be high, so take off another 4 million (but it could easily be more). That means its really 23,000,000

Now, remember that if you open up cap space and use it, you lose all the bird rights of your own FAs of that year and you also lose your Bi-Annual, Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level and Taxpayer Mid-Level exceptions. Now, if youthen use up all that cap space, you get the "Room Exception" for 2015-16 is $2.814 million (contract can be 1-2 years, 4.5% raises).

So, if we have 23,000,000 dollars, what does that mean? Well if the cap goes up, so do player individual maximum salaries. Here they were for '14-'15, and estimated for '15-'16 based on a 66 million dollar cap. If the cap is more than 66 million, yes the C's would have more room, but max salaries would be higher too because they are based on a percentage of the cap.
            2014-2015             2015-2016
0-6   25%    $14,746,000.00     $16,500,000.00
7-9   30%    $17,695,200.00     $19,800,000.00
10+   35%    $20,644,400.00     $23,100,000.00

So you can see, with 23 million, you could do one <6 yr player max plus a 6 or so million dollar player.  Or you could get two guys who want to play together to take less than the max, but it would have to be about 6 million less than the max each, and that's just for 0-6 year vets. if it's two 7+ vets, you are asking for them to leave 8+ million on the table for two to play together. Not really gonna happen. So at most it's 1 max player plus a bit player.

An additional consideration: the Rondo TPE is for 12.9 million, so it can be used to obtain up to 13,000,000 in salary. (TPE+100,000). However, if you go below the cap to sign FA's, you lose your TPE. So if the C's want to sign players using free agency, they should figure out a way to use the TPE this year or before they renounce their FA's.


Now how about picks. THere are a lot of protections, but here is the most likely current fallout:
2015: Bos 1, Clip 1, Phi 2, Wash 2 (we get it if Wash finishes with a top 11 record), Bos 2
2016: Bos 1, Brook 1, Cle 1, Dall 1, Phi 2, Dall or Mem 2, Mia 2, Cle 2
2017: Bos or Brook 1, Bos 2, Cle 2
2018: Bos 1, Brook 1, Bos 2

So there we go. That's where we are.

So, do you think they:

1. Package assets to trade for a few vets.
2. Don't renounce rights, sign short deals to keep rolling over expirings and see how the draft picks develop to make a trade splash later
3. Renounce players, sign a FA to be part of a core, then keep our picks to supplement that core
4. Renounce players, Sign a FA to be part of a core, then trade a bunch of other assets to add to that core.
5. A combination; for example we could renounce players, keep our picks, but not really get anyone long term, then tread water into 2016, renounce wallace, and maybe have space to add 2 max guys to a developing core of sully/olynyk/Smart/Bradley (though bradley's deal would be getting in the way at that time since sully will need to be re-upped then and his cap hold will also be in the way.

I'll post more later.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2014, 11:42:25 AM by Fan from VT »

Re: Current Situation
« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2014, 11:27:21 AM »

Offline beantownboy171

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Quick correction: We have Philly's 2nd rounder in 2016 also.

Re: Current Situation
« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2014, 12:09:53 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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Cap may be close to 68 million based off speculation that NBA doesn't want a crazy bump up with TV $ set to hit in 2016-2017.

Stretch provision on Wallace if done saves 6 million next year.

With both above cap space could be 30 million.

Good call on TPE. DA may want to use it up on an expiring this year. Perhaps he does on a soon to be FA he believes he can resign. Getting them in here gives them time to embrace the team which may be an edge.


Re: Current Situation
« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2014, 12:25:58 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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OK, so how about that TPE? Remember, if we want to use capspace this offseason, we need to use it before the end of the year. So, we need to keep these things in mind:

- If we take back a player who's not expiring, there's that much less capspace for next year (and the year after, if applicable)

- Therefore, if we're taking back an expiring, the only reason a team would give us an expiring player is really if we are giving them a pick they want or they want to get out from under the tax this year (or they want a tpe to make a 3 way deal to get a different player).

- If the player is not expiring this year, the C's are taking that player either because they like him and want to keep him going forward or because there's another asset (pick, prospect) coming too.


This is part of the reason I don't see the C's using capspace this offseason. They could use the TPE now to gain an asset and a contract that doesn't expire this year but does expire next year with Wallace; then when wallace and the TPE player come off the books, they'd have more room and a bunch of picks to make or deal. Or they keep their own FAs on 1 year deals and keep the TPE into next season to do the same thing.


So who's in that range?

Here's players making under 13 million down to 5.4 million, with some notes.
Nene Hilario, PF   Washington Wizards    $13,000,000.00
- no way, they want to compete.
Eric Bledsoe, PG   Phoenix Suns    $13,000,000.00
- Don't see it. Just signed him, we have smart and bradley, and we'd have to give up extra assets to get him with the TPE
Andrew Bogut, C   Golden State Warriors    $12,972,973.00
- THE key defender on a title favorite
Derrick Favors, PF   Utah Jazz    $12,950,000.00
- Hmmm. A binky of mine who is a rebounding/defending anchor who would perfectly complement sully and olynyk?
Rajon Rondo, PG   Boston Celtics    $12,909,090.00
- Obvs, no
Joakim Noah, C   Chicago Bulls    $12,700,000.00
- Defensive anchor for a contender.
Tony Parker, PG   San Antonio Spurs    $12,500,000.00
- No
Serge Ibaka, PF   Oklahoma City Thunder    $12,350,000.00
- Defensive anchor for a contender.
Andre Iguodala, SG   Golden State Warriors    $12,289,544.00
- GS does have wing depth, does want to get under the tax, and David Lee doesn't fit into our TPE. However, Iggy would not be part of a rebuild plan. He's on the decline. He's signed through 16-17. And GS's picks are bad, they owe a furture 1st to Utah, and they don't have any prospects I want that they'd be willing to deal. No.
Nikola Pekovic, C   Minnesota Timberwolves    $12,100,000.00
- Intriguing, useful, overpaid, probably cheap to obtain in terms of assets, but a bad C fit for our two PFs since he is good at offense, weak at D.
David West, PF   Indiana Pacers    $12,000,000.00
- Too old.
Kyle Lowry, PG   Toronto Raptors    $12,000,000.00
- On a contender.
Al Horford, C   Atlanta Hawks    $12,000,000.00
- On a playoff team, FA soon, i'm a bit scared of his health.
Nicolas Batum, SF   Portland Trail Blazers    $11,765,500.00
- Plateaued and declined.
Ty Lawson, PG   Denver Nuggets    $11,595,506.00
Andrea Bargnani, C   New York Knicks    $11,500,000.00
DeAndre Jordan, C   Los Angeles Clippers    $11,440,123.00
- Contender
Tyreke Evans, SF   New Orleans Pelicans    $11,265,416.00
- Nah.
JaVale McGee, C   Denver Nuggets    $11,250,000.00
Larry Sanders, C   Milwaukee Bucks    $11,000,000.00
- Interesting.
Danilo Gallinari, SF   Denver Nuggets    $10,854,850.00
Stephen Curry, PG   Golden State Warriors    $10,629,213.00
Marcin Gortat, C   Washington Wizards    $10,434,782.00
Jrue Holiday, PG   New Orleans Pelicans    $10,404,495.00
Tim Duncan, PF   San Antonio Spurs    $10,361,446.00
Gerald Wallace, SF   Boston Celtics    $10,105,855.00
DeMar DeRozan, SG   Toronto Raptors    $10,100,000.00
Luol Deng, SF   Miami Heat    $9,714,461.00
- See Iggy.
Anderson Varejao, C   Cleveland Cavaliers    $9,704,545.00
Steve Nash, PG   Los Angeles Lakers    $9,701,000.00
Kendrick Perkins, C   Oklahoma City Thunder    $9,654,342.00
Paul Millsap, PF   Atlanta Hawks    $9,500,000.00
- FA soon.
Thaddeus Young, SF   Minnesota Timberwolves    $9,410,869.00
Tiago Splitter, PF   San Antonio Spurs    $9,250,000.00
Jeff Green, SF   Boston Celtics    $9,200,000.00
Lance Stephenson, SG   Charlotte Hornets    $9,000,000.00
Jordan Hill, C   Los Angeles Lakers    $9,000,000.00
Mike Conley, PG   Memphis Grizzlies    $8,694,216.00
Trevor Ariza, SF   Houston Rockets    $8,579,089.00
Channing Frye, PF   Orlando Magic    $8,579,088.00
Marcus Thornton, SG   Boston Celtics    $8,575,000.00
Ryan Anderson, PF   New Orleans Pelicans    $8,491,500.00
Jeremy Lin, PG   Los Angeles Lakers    $8,374,646.00
Omer Asik, C   New Orleans Pelicans    $8,374,646.00
Monta Ellis, SG   Dallas Mavericks    $8,360,000.00
George Hill, PG   Indiana Pacers    $8,000,000.00
O.J. Mayo, SG   Milwaukee Bucks    $8,000,000.00
Jeff Teague, PG   Atlanta Hawks    $8,000,000.00
Taj Gibson, PF   Chicago Bulls       $8,000,000
- Intriguing as a defensive pair to oly/sully, but he's already 29!
Dirk Nowitzki, PF   Dallas Mavericks    $7,974,482.00
Ersan Ilyasova, PF   Milwaukee Bucks    $7,900,000.00
Tayshaun Prince, SF   Memphis Grizzlies    $7,707,865.00
Boris Diaw, PF   San Antonio Spurs    $7,500,000.00
Arron Afflalo, SG   Denver Nuggets    $7,500,000.00
Wesley Matthews, SG   Portland Trail Blazers    $7,245,640.00
Isaiah Thomas, PG   Phoenix Suns    $7,238,606.00
Avery Bradley, PG   Boston Celtics    $7,191,011.00
Pau Gasol, PF   Chicago Bulls    $7,128,000.00
Jose Calderon, PG   New York Knicks    $7,097,191.00
Kyrie Irving, PG   Cleveland Cavaliers    $7,070,730.00
Marvin Williams, PF   Charlotte Hornets    $7,000,000.00
Amir Johnson, PF   Toronto Raptors    $7,000,000.00
Manu Ginobili, SG   San Antonio Spurs    $7,000,000.00
Brandon Bass, PF   Boston Celtics    $6,900,000.00
Kevin Martin, SG   Minnesota Timberwolves    $6,792,500.00
J.J. Redick, SG   Los Angeles Clippers    $6,792,500.00
Wilson Chandler, SF   Denver Nuggets    $6,757,913.00
Jason Richardson, SG   Philadelphia 76ers    $6,601,125.00
Carl Landry, PF   Sacramento Kings    $6,500,000.00
Greivis Vasquez, PG   Toronto Raptors    $6,400,000.00
Derrick Williams, PF   Sacramento Kings    $6,331,404.00
Jarrett Jack, PG   Brooklyn Nets    $6,300,000.00
Kyle Korver, SG   Atlanta Hawks    $6,253,521.00
Landry Fields, SG   Toronto Raptors    $6,250,000.00
Robin Lopez, C   Portland Trail Blazers    $6,124,729.00
Jason Thompson, PF   Sacramento Kings    $6,037,500.00
Gerald Henderson, SG   Charlotte Hornets    $6,000,000.00
Jodie Meeks, SG   Detroit Pistons    $6,000,000.00
J.R. Smith, SG   New York Knicks    $5,982,375.00
Chuck Hayes, C   Toronto Raptors    $5,958,750.00
Jason Terry, SG   Houston Rockets    $5,850,313.00
Patrick Patterson, PF   Toronto Raptors    $5,831,326.00
P.J. Tucker, SF   Phoenix Suns    $5,700,000.00
Enes Kanter, C   Utah Jazz    $5,694,674.00
Anthony Davis, PF   New Orleans Pelicans    $5,607,240.00
Anthony Bennett, PF   Minnesota Timberwolves    $5,563,920.00
Andrew Wiggins, SF   Minnesota Timberwolves    $5,510,640.00
Greg Monroe, PF   Detroit Pistons    $5,479,934.00
- Available, but no point. We would't have his bird rights. So we'd need space to sign him and if we have space, just sign him.
Louis Williams, SG   Toronto Raptors    $5,450,000.00
Courtney Lee, SG   Memphis Grizzlies    $5,450,000.00

Obviously Ainge is a lot more creative than me. The market will change to in the offseason when there's a new cleveland that wants to pay to ditch salary and open up space. but it looks more bare than i expected.

I think Favors is intriguing; does Utah really see Favors as part of their plan since they've got a very young team, like exum, just maxed out Hayward, need to sign Kanter, will need to sign trey burke, and alec burks is signed long term for more than Bradley? Would teh TPE plus a Cle#1 and another #2 get it done? What else to add?

Because if Smart progresses, a Favors/Olynyk/Sully frontcourt is pretty balanced. Add a real wing (overpay via trade with more assets, luck out in draft, wait for FA in 1-2 years, luck out with drafting a 4th legit big and deal oly/sully for a wing, etc) and there's maybe a glimmer of hope.



« Last Edit: December 20, 2014, 12:47:10 PM by Fan from VT »

Re: Current Situation
« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2014, 12:31:41 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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great thread and fabulous homework putting it together fanvt. thanks and a tp. heck i would give you more but i have to wait an hour.

one small, very small, addition to the above is wallace's salary. ainge COULD stretch it out, paying only $2 millionish each year for 5 years. this would allow a short term cap space if necessary, without burdening the celtics with salary since the cap will rise.

next, i will get back with other thoughts, but need time to digest all this.

again, great work.

p.s. mods, is there someway to pin this thread, or, have the info above made easily available? it would help a lot of posters as a resource as they write i think.
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Re: Current Situation
« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2014, 12:42:22 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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Now, the TPE may be used for something much smaller. For example, a team that is over the tax and wants to get under. They may want to just barely get under to avoid paying the tax, or they may want to get a bit under to use the full MLE this offseason.

Now, the projected tax is 76.8 million. Here's the top payrolls:
Brooklyn Nets   $94,045,708
New York Knicks   $90,105,050
Los Angeles Clippers   $79,679,772
Boston Celtics   $78,721,821
Memphis Grizzlies   $76,234,943
Sacramento Kings   $75,852,705
Oklahoma City Thunder   $75,175,206
Indiana Pacers   $73,895,309
Toronto Raptors   $73,393,600
Denver Nuggets   $73,000,779

Re: Current Situation
« Reply #6 on: December 20, 2014, 01:14:51 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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And so how about teams that are contending (or want to at least just be in the playoffs) and could use a Thornton/Bass/Wright?

Some random ideas:

Wright (or bass):

Washington for Otto Porter
Toronto for neguira and hayes (filler), or Caboclo and filler
Cleveland (into the bogans TPE) for mroe picks.
Charlotte for Zeller or Vonleh and salary filler.
Would Milwaukee to Bass+Wright (at the deadline, when wright can be combined) for Sanders? Would we?
Wright and a good 2nd for Henson and Bayless? For Henson and Zaza (we'd need to use the TPE or include a bit more salary on our end) to help them clear some salary?
Would houston give us Motiejunas and a filler for wright or bass if we threw in a good 2nd rounder? probably not.

Re: Current Situation
« Reply #7 on: December 20, 2014, 01:25:04 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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Nuggets deal for TPE makes sense. They will want to dump Gali for the TPE. They could throw in Harris; C's throw in Philly pick*. Remember Faried kicks in next year and they want to avoid the tax. Harris is like getting a 1st. Gali would then replace Green's scoring making the Green trade that is coming not a big deal.
Smart, Harris, Young not a bad 2014 draft haul.

P.S. Break down Rondo trade is now
Rondo, Powell, Philly pick for
2016 first, Wright, Crowder, Harris, Gali.

I could go for that!
« Last Edit: December 20, 2014, 01:32:23 PM by Csfan1984 »