Author Topic: Celtics have 8 picks in the 2016 NBA Draft  (Read 22673 times)

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Re: Celtics have 8 pick in the 2016 NBA Draft
« Reply #30 on: December 20, 2014, 02:24:55 PM »

Offline Nerf DPOY

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Picks are not worth what they used to be.
agreed

At what point in the past were picks more valuable than they are now? Based off of Billy King and Knicks trades, one would think they don't hold much value, but I see those two franchises as anomalies. A draft pick and freshly drafted Jeremy Lamb were the key assets in the Harden trade, and Dwight Howard was just traded a few years ago for a collection of picks.

Re: Celtics have 8 picks in the 2016 NBA Draft
« Reply #31 on: December 20, 2014, 02:34:18 PM »

Offline Yoki_IsTheName

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I just hope it turns into a player we can build around.

I mean its hard to gauge their value. #6, #17 on a good draft class and good young players is apparently not enough to pry away Kevin Love. I'm not sure what those picks would be worth. We'd have to be really lucky and hope that one of those becomes a top 3 selection.

I'd be upset if we end up not being able to use any or all of that for a player who can dramatically help us moving forward.
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Re: Celtics have 8 picks in the 2016 NBA Draft
« Reply #32 on: December 20, 2014, 02:42:55 PM »

Offline JBcat

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here is an interested set of points on having soooo many picks, some which i saw over on SOSH. the celtics are about to face a major roster crunch from having too many young players with guaranteed contracts.

aside from 2015, keep in mind as noted above that in 2016 the celtics have another 4 first round picks and 4 2nd round picks. (please check me on this since it seems an almost absurd amount of picks.)

even with free agents leaving, contracts expiring, blah, that means the celtics have 3-4 players more than you'd expect to have in your regular rotation due to first rounder alone.  also, i haven't included possible veteran signings or the likelihood that a credible player might come out of one of 2nd rounders.  and i expect ainge to score on at least one of his second rounders.

the point here is that there will be a roster crunch pretty quickly...simply too many guaranteed contracts are on the immediate horizon. 

so, what solutions are there for this embarrassment of riches?
 
one possible solution is the obvious one - package them for a smaller number of very high picks.  the straightforward answer is, of course, simple ... trade a bundle of the so-so picks for something in the top 5. that solution leads us to this interesting study done on the value of draft picks.

fivethirtyeight.com did a study (http://fivethirtyeig...y-really-worth/) suggesting that the proper value for four non-lottery first rounders is approximately the third and fourth picks in a typical draft.  ok, but that strikes me as more than most GMs would actually give the celtics. picks that high up in the draft are valued too highly by most GMs who are all praying for the next lebron. so while tempting, this is an unlikely scenario. so let's look at other possible scenarios.

next would be for ainge to package his many pennies, nickels, and dimes for a smaller number of quarters and dollars. that is, as with the KG and ray trades, use the first rounders with other assets to grab the big star. this reduces the roster crunch. ainge has done an incredible job of acquiring a range of resources, including picks, a range of salaries, TE, etc. and ainge is one of the most "wheeling and dealing" GMs in the nba. he is a gambler and now he has chips to play with.

third, ainge might simple play leapfrog with the picks, ala the play for olly last year. for example, use picks 22 and 24 to grab a player at 17. or use 10 and 20 to move up to 8. if another team at 8 thinks their player will still there at 10, they will probably bite on such an offer. while this may not place the celtics in the top 5 picks, it does allow ainge the chance to grab a great player that is falling...and as we know with pierce and rondo, sometimes that happens.

a fourth option is open to ainge, one in which there's more value in keeping the picks, though that may bring us back to the problem of the pending roster crunch.  it may be wise to draw upon one of danny's true talents - spotting talent in the late-first-round. danny's been good at finding late first-round gems and with so many such picks, it might be more sensible to take players with question marks and high upside like marvelous-melo (tm), rondo, and sullinger, knowing that it's a good thing to miss some of the time. remember, the nba average for getting a credible player late in the first round is around 25%, danny does better historically. this means that the celtics would select "high risk, high ceiling" players intentionally betting that half or more would never last in the nba. danny would swing for the fences with each and every pick and say "screw it" to selecting nice, safe role players.

final option, i suppose keeping players overseas for a season or two is another option. but this only postpones the pending roster crunch, which while better than nothing, does not resolve it. nor are there enough good players would be a fit here, but it is one possibilty.
 
so, after all that, i ask the collective wisdom of cb - what's the best plan here? package assets?  or be like big papi and swing for the fences with most of these picks and assume that you'll hit on some, miss on others?

Nice post.

The other thing to do is trade them for future first rounders that you project will be slightly better in the next year. For example, a team lacks a 2016 first rounder or a team sees a late 1st rounder they really like; trade them the dallas 2016 for a 2017 pick that you hope is in the teens instead of 20s. Repeat annually until you get a high pick or have enough spots on your roster. Or it doesn't have to be a better pick; business side, just trade a 2016 for 2017+cash, then a 2017 for 2018+cash and keep revenue good as long as you've got too many picks anyway.

Interestingly, you could trade a future pick with "reverse protections" like our current dallas one. so say a contender in 2016 is prospect depleted and wants a player in the 20s to develp and provide young legs. Trade them one of the 1sts at, say, 20, for a 2017 that is protected 18-30 for 3 years then unprotected or something. Maybe in one of those years it lands at 15 and you've improved the value.


As an aside, I LOVE keeping distant unprotected picks from other teams. I think you should always keep these if you can when you rebuild. This is one of the better ways to add a "Rose," or a "George" or an "Irving" level player to an already .500 or better team by that time.
good call on the "rolling picks over" option. wish i had thought of it.

ainge just has a bushel basket of assets right now, draft picks being perhaps the most fungible among them. i expect ainge will use all of options above to varying ends depending upon opportunities.

but i do like your plan of keeping an on going supply of first round picks.

Was just going to say this.  It's such a Patriots move.  He could trade a couple of those for say a 2017 and 2019 first round picks so we'll have at least 2 first round picks in the next 5 drafts!  It's gives us tremendous flexibility, and the ability to trade for at least 1 star if one were to become available.

Re: Celtics have 8 pick in the 2016 NBA Draft
« Reply #33 on: December 20, 2014, 03:11:36 PM »

Offline Yoki_IsTheName

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Picks are not worth what they used to be.
agreed

At what point in the past were picks more valuable than they are now? Based off of Billy King and Knicks trades, one would think they don't hold much value, but I see those two franchises as anomalies. A draft pick and freshly drafted Jeremy Lamb were the key assets in the Harden trade, and Dwight Howard was just traded a few years ago for a collection of picks.

But Howard wanted out and OKC didn't want to pay Harden. If OKC wasn't cheap and Dwight was patient, they would not have probably moved.

Let's face it. The only way we can trade for established stars is either their team can't pay him, wants out, or on a losing team with an expiring contract. Other than that, teams would hold on to their stars.

I actually made a post yesterday about how I think Danny should be easily flip pur assets into players we can call pur foundation. The more I think about this, the more I'm backtracking. tams won't give their stars unless either of the three situations are present.And lottery teams are reluctant to give top picks in the draft if they know there's a potential franchise player in their sights. We'd have to be really lucky to land a top pick or find a star in distress or a cheap owner to get a franchise player.

Man, this is really going o be a long rebuild.
2019 CStrong Historical Draft 2000s OKC Thunder.
PG: Jrue Holiday / Isaiah Thomas / Larry Hughes
SG: Paul George / Aaron McKie / Bradley Beal
SF: Paul Pierce / Tayshaun Prince / Brian Scalabrine
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge / Shareef Abdur-Raheem / Ben Simmons
C: Jermaine O'neal / Ben Wallace

Re: Celtics have 8 picks in the 2016 NBA Draft
« Reply #34 on: December 20, 2014, 03:33:25 PM »

Offline Ragingrondo

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Next year is the Ben Simmons draft who is suppose to be really good and he is a fellow aussie which can't hurt.

Re: Celtics have 8 picks in the 2016 NBA Draft
« Reply #35 on: December 20, 2014, 04:14:19 PM »

Offline jay

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Could we package 3 picks each for two good players?

Our 2015, Cavs 2016, Philly 2016 2nd for one starting caliber player.

Our 2016, Clips 2015, Mavs 2016 for another starter?


We still have the Nets 2016 which could be really good.


We could use the TPE to add a decent player. We could combine Bass/Thornton to match salary. Next year at the deadline, we could combine Wallace/Nelson next year to add salary.

There are plenty of players making 10-13 million that might be able to be pried away with 3 picks.

Re: Celtics have 8 picks in the 2016 NBA Draft
« Reply #36 on: December 20, 2014, 04:49:18 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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didn't realize there were any protections on the Dallas pick until this thread - TP. 

I thought Danny got screwed on the value for Rondo but now that I see how this pick is protected this year and thereby jamming us in 2016 with 4 firsts and a very high second from Philly next year is really questionable managing.  would have been better to get Dallas' first unprotected this year or in 2017 with at most limited protection to spread out the picks.

I disagree. Having 4 firsts in that loaded 2016 draft is very valuable. You can do major damage there, both in the draft & away from it as well. Teams will want into that draft & their scouts will let them know it.
I don't know much about the projected talent in that draft so I hope you're right and that the changes to player eligibility hold off until after that draft.

Re: Celtics have 8 picks in the 2016 NBA Draft
« Reply #37 on: December 20, 2014, 04:53:40 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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Next year is the Ben Simmons draft who is suppose to be really good and he is a fellow aussie which can't hurt.

Thon Maker too

Re: Celtics have 8 picks in the 2016 NBA Draft
« Reply #38 on: January 06, 2015, 06:04:18 PM »

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Man, that Cleveland pick next year has my mouth watering right now.  If Love bailed, nobody would be surprised and if LBJ bailed, nobody would blame him this time. 

I would much rather have Dallas' pick next year than this year, as well.  If they don't resign Rondo, it's another year on Dirk and Chandler, they're probably not going to be this good next year. 

Also, if anybody is good at Catfishing, can you make an account that looks like Jada Crawley trying to hide her identity on Twitter, then suggestively message Blake Griffin a bunch with it?  Or conversely, you can try to make an account for Brynn Cameron, as she doesn't have Twitter to begin with, then write CP3 with it.  That one seems more plausible, anyways.

Re: Celtics have 8 picks in the 2016 NBA Draft
« Reply #39 on: January 06, 2015, 06:17:55 PM »

Offline Nerf DPOY

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Man, that Cleveland pick next year has my mouth watering right now.  If Love bailed, nobody would be surprised and if LBJ bailed, nobody would blame him this time. 

I would much rather have Dallas' pick next year than this year, as well.  If they don't resign Rondo, it's another year on Dirk.......

Before you get your hopes too too high, the Cavs pick is top-10 protected through 2018, and the Mavs is top-7 protected through 2020.

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed

 Of course, it probably won't matter but If either of those picks wind up in the teens or high lottery next year, I'd consider that gravy.

Edit: Just to pile on the Mavs, Ellis can opt out this year and may price himself out of Dallas.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2015, 06:34:05 PM by Nerf DPOY »

Re: Celtics have 8 picks in the 2016 NBA Draft
« Reply #40 on: January 06, 2015, 06:27:25 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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Could we package 3 picks each for two good players?

Our 2015, Cavs 2016, Philly 2016 2nd for one starting caliber player.

Our 2016, Clips 2015, Mavs 2016 for another starter?


We still have the Nets 2016 which could be really good.


We could use the TPE to add a decent player. We could combine Bass/Thornton to match salary. Next year at the deadline, we could combine Wallace/Nelson next year to add salary.

There are plenty of players making 10-13 million that might be able to be pried away with 3 picks.
Our 2015 and 2016 pick should be very valuable.  I don't think Danny lets them go for anything short of a star player.  I also have trouble reconciling the different trade appraisals on here.  Not picking on this post in particular, but in general, the things I'm hearing

Jeff Green is worth a late 2nd rounder
Brandan Wright is worth a TPE or nothing at all
We should trade our top 5 lottery pick plus a first and a second for a "starter"

Doesn't add up

Re: Celtics have 8 picks in the 2016 NBA Draft
« Reply #41 on: January 06, 2015, 06:37:26 PM »

Offline knuckleballer

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8 picks, wow!  That means we are getting Simmons and Thon Maker.  Dreaming of unrealistic scenarios is the best thing going for Celtics fans right now.  :)  I can't wait to land Okafor.

Re: Celtics have 8 picks in the 2016 NBA Draft
« Reply #42 on: January 06, 2015, 06:45:14 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Can maybe combine a couple picks here and there to move up from like 26th to 23rd.  It gives us flexibility for small trades, but we're looking at maybe 1 guaranteed lotto pick if Boston continues to struggle next season.

Re: Celtics have 8 picks in the 2016 NBA Draft
« Reply #43 on: January 06, 2015, 06:47:14 PM »

Offline knuckleballer

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Can maybe combine a couple picks here and there to move up from like 22nd to 20.  It gives us flexibility for small trades, but we're looking at maybe 1 guaranteed lotto pick if Boston continues to struggle next season.

 I'd bet there's a good chance the Nets are a lotto picks as well.  Like you said, the additional picks could give us the flexibility to move up a couple of spots to get the guy they want.

Re: Celtics have 8 picks in the 2016 NBA Draft
« Reply #44 on: January 06, 2015, 06:58:22 PM »

Offline Surferdad

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These things have ways of sorting themselves out.

First, several of those second rounders will be middle to end of the 2nd round. Those guys rarely crack rotations, and they're almost never players you'd care much about waiving to clear space.

Second, it's not hard to unload second rounders and late first rounders for future picks.

And third, we don't have more than a few guys we've committed to beyond the 2015-16 season (likely 4-5 from the current roster).

I guess even with all the picks, if I'm Ainge I don't feel any particular urgency to shed them in the near term.
just a small difference of opinion here. nothing such as this sorts itself out. draft picks will not decide to move/trade themselves. it will take folks such as ainge consciously and intentionally making decisions to sort all this out.

i just wish to foreground the agency and intentionality required through self-reflexivity for these things to happen.  ;D
Agreed. Ainge has to make this happen. Regarding 2nd rounders mainly, he cannot predict who will and won't work out. Also Ainge should definitely feel some urgency to shed draft picks because of the roster crunch as explained by the OP. I feel fairly certain there will be a move involving draft picks before the trade deadline, even if it just to "roll over" picks to future years.

1st rounders get guaranteed contracts. There is simply not enough room on the roster for all these first rounders as well as Smart, Olynyk, Young. Keep in mind too that Ainge HAS TO keep some vets too in order to make the minimum team salary. That means he likely cannot dump all of Green, Wallace, Bass, Thorton, Bradley, etc without taking back some similar salaries.