Celtics have 8 picks in the 2016 NBA Draft

[thehumburger]

This is one reason I hope Ainge doesn't trade Green or any of our other vets who are making contributions this year, unless he gets a ridiculous offer, which isn't likely. We have such a glut of picks we already can't possibly keep all of the players taken with them, so another pick even if it's at the end of the first round isn't going to move the needle any in terms of what we can do. I was all for selling off and bottoming out last year, but part of the reason to do that is to collect assets and clear cap space. Ainge has done a good job of that already.

This team has shown itself to be moderately competitive this year (6th best diff in the East!) and it would be a shame not to give them the best chance to keep getting better and compete for a playoff spot. Even if Green opts out and signs elsewhere, the addition of yet another mediocre pick wouldn't mean anything, while the loss to this team's competitiveness and the experience they could get playing meaningful games and winning basketball, not to mention what it would mean for the fans and organization to watch a playoff team in only the second year of the rebuild, would. (And for those who claim the 7 - 8 seeds are automatically NBA purgatory, not all 7 - 8 seeds are created equally. I.e. if you do it with young guys and a lot of future assets, you're moving up, not standing still, like the Nets or Heat.)

[beantownboy171]

This is one reason I hope Ainge doesn't trade Green or any of our other vets who are making contributions this year, unless he gets a ridiculous offer, which isn't likely. We have such a glut of picks we already can't possibly keep all of the players taken with them, so another pick even if it's at the end of the first round isn't going to move the needle any in terms of what we can do. I was all for selling off and bottoming out last year, but part of the reason to do that is to collect assets and clear cap space. Ainge has done a good job of that already.

This team has shown itself to be moderately competitive this year (6th best diff in the East!) and it would be a shame not to give them the best chance to keep getting better and compete for a playoff spot. Even if Green opts out and signs elsewhere, the addition of yet another mediocre pick wouldn't mean anything, while the loss to this team's competitiveness and the experience they could get playing meaningful games and winning basketball, not to mention what it would mean for the fans and organization to watch a playoff team in only the second year of the rebuild, would. (And for those who claim the 7 - 8 seeds are automatically NBA purgatory, not all 7 - 8 seeds are created equally. I.e. if you do it with young guys and a lot of future assets, you're moving up, not standing still, like the Nets or Heat.)

TP, I don't feel very threatened by NBA purgatory with the # of draft picks we possess.

[footey]

here is an interested set of points on having soooo many picks, some which i saw over on SOSH. the celtics are about to face a major roster crunch from having too many young players with guaranteed contracts.

aside from 2015, keep in mind as noted above that in 2016 the celtics have another 4 first round picks and 4 2nd round picks. (please check me on this since it seems an almost absurd amount of picks.)

even with free agents leaving, contracts expiring, blah, that means the celtics have 3-4 players more than you'd expect to have in your regular rotation due to first rounder alone.  also, i haven't included possible veteran signings or the likelihood that a credible player might come out of one of 2nd rounders.  and i expect ainge to score on at least one of his second rounders.

the point here is that there will be a roster crunch pretty quickly...simply too many guaranteed contracts are on the immediate horizon. 

so, what solutions are there for this embarrassment of riches?
 
one possible solution is the obvious one - package them for a smaller number of very high picks.  the straightforward answer is, of course, simple ... trade a bundle of the so-so picks for something in the top 5. that solution leads us to this interesting study done on the value of draft picks.

fivethirtyeight.com did a study (http://fivethirtyeig...y-really-worth/) suggesting that the proper value for four non-lottery first rounders is approximately the third and fourth picks in a typical draft.  ok, but that strikes me as more than most GMs would actually give the celtics. picks that high up in the draft are valued too highly by most GMs who are all praying for the next lebron. so while tempting, this is an unlikely scenario. so let's look at other possible scenarios.

next would be for ainge to package his many pennies, nickels, and dimes for a smaller number of quarters and dollars. that is, as with the KG and ray trades, use the first rounders with other assets to grab the big star. this reduces the roster crunch. ainge has done an incredible job of acquiring a range of resources, including picks, a range of salaries, TE, etc. and ainge is one of the most "wheeling and dealing" GMs in the nba. he is a gambler and now he has chips to play with.

third, ainge might simple play leapfrog with the picks, ala the play for olly last year. for example, use picks 22 and 24 to grab a player at 17. or use 10 and 20 to move up to 8. if another team at 8 thinks their player will still there at 10, they will probably bite on such an offer. while this may not place the celtics in the top 5 picks, it does allow ainge the chance to grab a great player that is falling...and as we know with pierce and rondo, sometimes that happens.

a fourth option is open to ainge, one in which there's more value in keeping the picks, though that may bring us back to the problem of the pending roster crunch.  it may be wise to draw upon one of danny's true talents - spotting talent in the late-first-round. danny's been good at finding late first-round gems and with so many such picks, it might be more sensible to take players with question marks and high upside like marvelous-melo (tm), rondo, and sullinger, knowing that it's a good thing to miss some of the time. remember, the nba average for getting a credible player late in the first round is around 25%, danny does better historically. this means that the celtics would select "high risk, high ceiling" players intentionally betting that half or more would never last in the nba. danny would swing for the fences with each and every pick and say "screw it" to selecting nice, safe role players.

final option, i suppose keeping players overseas for a season or two is another option. but this only postpones the pending roster crunch, which while better than nothing, does not resolve it. nor are there enough good players would be a fit here, but it is one possibilty.
 
so, after all that, i ask the collective wisdom of cb - what's the best plan here? package assets?  or be like big papi and swing for the fences with most of these picks and assume that you'll hit on some, miss on others?

TP, fine analysis.

[Boris Badenov]

These things have ways of sorting themselves out.

First, several of those second rounders will be middle to end of the 2nd round. Those guys rarely crack rotations, and they're almost never players you'd care much about waiving to clear space.

Second, it's not hard to unload second rounders and late first rounders for future picks.

And third, we don't have more than a few guys we've committed to beyond the 2015-16 season (likely 4-5 from the current roster).

I guess even with all the picks, if I'm Ainge I don't feel any particular urgency to shed them in the near term.

[hwangjini_1]

These things have ways of sorting themselves out.

First, several of those second rounders will be middle to end of the 2nd round. Those guys rarely crack rotations, and they're almost never players you'd care much about waiving to clear space.

Second, it's not hard to unload second rounders and late first rounders for future picks.

And third, we don't have more than a few guys we've committed to beyond the 2015-16 season (likely 4-5 from the current roster).

I guess even with all the picks, if I'm Ainge I don't feel any particular urgency to shed them in the near term.

just a small difference of opinion here. nothing such as this sorts itself out. draft picks will not decide to move/trade themselves. it will take folks such as ainge consciously and intentionally making decisions to sort all this out.

i just wish to foreground the agency and intentionality required through self-reflexivity for these things to happen. 

[Boris Badenov]

To follow on my point: by my count the C's have drafted 13 players in the 2008-2013 period, and three are still on the team. Drafting someone is far from a long-term commitment.

[clover]

I think Danny fully expects to "spend" a number of his picks by this summer, rather than get to the point of known desperation in trading them.

The Rondo trade IMO speeds up the rebuild, because they'll have more flexibility without worrying about trying to build just the right team around him.

Younger FAs will be more interested in joining a faster-developed, more featured young nucleus than a cranky, aging Rondo.

[Lucky17]

Of the list of pending FAs this coming summer, how many figure to sign a contract starting at $13 million?

I think one of those might be gained via the Rondo TPE and a 1st rounder via a sign and trade.

[slamtheking]

didn't realize there were any protections on the Dallas pick until this thread - TP. 

I thought Danny got screwed on the value for Rondo but now that I see how this pick is protected this year and thereby jamming us in 2016 with 4 firsts and a very high second from Philly next year is really questionable managing.  would have been better to get Dallas' first unprotected this year or in 2017 with at most limited protection to spread out the picks.

[aingeforthree]

It's suppose to be a loaded draft in 2016. I'd like to keep 3 of those first rounders.

[aingeforthree]

didn't realize there were any protections on the Dallas pick until this thread - TP. 

I thought Danny got screwed on the value for Rondo but now that I see how this pick is protected this year and thereby jamming us in 2016 with 4 firsts and a very high second from Philly next year is really questionable managing.  would have been better to get Dallas' first unprotected this year or in 2017 with at most limited protection to spread out the picks.

I disagree. Having 4 firsts in that loaded 2016 draft is very valuable. You can do major damage there, both in the draft & away from it as well. Teams will want into that draft & their scouts will let them know it.

[Fan from VT]

here is an interested set of points on having soooo many picks, some which i saw over on SOSH. the celtics are about to face a major roster crunch from having too many young players with guaranteed contracts.

aside from 2015, keep in mind as noted above that in 2016 the celtics have another 4 first round picks and 4 2nd round picks. (please check me on this since it seems an almost absurd amount of picks.)

even with free agents leaving, contracts expiring, blah, that means the celtics have 3-4 players more than you'd expect to have in your regular rotation due to first rounder alone.  also, i haven't included possible veteran signings or the likelihood that a credible player might come out of one of 2nd rounders.  and i expect ainge to score on at least one of his second rounders.

the point here is that there will be a roster crunch pretty quickly...simply too many guaranteed contracts are on the immediate horizon. 

so, what solutions are there for this embarrassment of riches?
 
one possible solution is the obvious one - package them for a smaller number of very high picks.  the straightforward answer is, of course, simple ... trade a bundle of the so-so picks for something in the top 5. that solution leads us to this interesting study done on the value of draft picks.

fivethirtyeight.com did a study (http://fivethirtyeig...y-really-worth/) suggesting that the proper value for four non-lottery first rounders is approximately the third and fourth picks in a typical draft.  ok, but that strikes me as more than most GMs would actually give the celtics. picks that high up in the draft are valued too highly by most GMs who are all praying for the next lebron. so while tempting, this is an unlikely scenario. so let's look at other possible scenarios.

next would be for ainge to package his many pennies, nickels, and dimes for a smaller number of quarters and dollars. that is, as with the KG and ray trades, use the first rounders with other assets to grab the big star. this reduces the roster crunch. ainge has done an incredible job of acquiring a range of resources, including picks, a range of salaries, TE, etc. and ainge is one of the most "wheeling and dealing" GMs in the nba. he is a gambler and now he has chips to play with.

third, ainge might simple play leapfrog with the picks, ala the play for olly last year. for example, use picks 22 and 24 to grab a player at 17. or use 10 and 20 to move up to 8. if another team at 8 thinks their player will still there at 10, they will probably bite on such an offer. while this may not place the celtics in the top 5 picks, it does allow ainge the chance to grab a great player that is falling...and as we know with pierce and rondo, sometimes that happens.

a fourth option is open to ainge, one in which there's more value in keeping the picks, though that may bring us back to the problem of the pending roster crunch.  it may be wise to draw upon one of danny's true talents - spotting talent in the late-first-round. danny's been good at finding late first-round gems and with so many such picks, it might be more sensible to take players with question marks and high upside like marvelous-melo (tm), rondo, and sullinger, knowing that it's a good thing to miss some of the time. remember, the nba average for getting a credible player late in the first round is around 25%, danny does better historically. this means that the celtics would select "high risk, high ceiling" players intentionally betting that half or more would never last in the nba. danny would swing for the fences with each and every pick and say "screw it" to selecting nice, safe role players.

final option, i suppose keeping players overseas for a season or two is another option. but this only postpones the pending roster crunch, which while better than nothing, does not resolve it. nor are there enough good players would be a fit here, but it is one possibilty.
 
so, after all that, i ask the collective wisdom of cb - what's the best plan here? package assets?  or be like big papi and swing for the fences with most of these picks and assume that you'll hit on some, miss on others?

Nice post.

The other thing to do is trade them for future first rounders that you project will be slightly better in the next year. For example, a team lacks a 2016 first rounder or a team sees a late 1st rounder they really like; trade them the dallas 2016 for a 2017 pick that you hope is in the teens instead of 20s. Repeat annually until you get a high pick or have enough spots on your roster. Or it doesn't have to be a better pick; business side, just trade a 2016 for 2017+cash, then a 2017 for 2018+cash and keep revenue good as long as you've got too many picks anyway.

Interestingly, you could trade a future pick with "reverse protections" like our current dallas one. so say a contender in 2016 is prospect depleted and wants a player in the 20s to develp and provide young legs. Trade them one of the 1sts at, say, 20, for a 2017 that is protected 18-30 for 3 years then unprotected or something. Maybe in one of those years it lands at 15 and you've improved the value.


As an aside, I LOVE keeping distant unprotected picks from other teams. I think you should always keep these if you can when you rebuild. This is one of the better ways to add a "Rose," or a "George" or an "Irving" level player to an already .500 or better team by that time.

[GzUP617]

Of the list of pending FAs this coming summer, how many figure to sign a contract starting at $13 million?

I think one of those might be gained via the Rondo TPE and a 1st rounder via a sign and trade.

  If said player agrees to the sign and trade why not just sign them outright, we'd have the cap space.  Unless the player is a RFA I don't see the reason for it.

[hwangjini_1]

here is an interested set of points on having soooo many picks, some which i saw over on SOSH. the celtics are about to face a major roster crunch from having too many young players with guaranteed contracts.

aside from 2015, keep in mind as noted above that in 2016 the celtics have another 4 first round picks and 4 2nd round picks. (please check me on this since it seems an almost absurd amount of picks.)

even with free agents leaving, contracts expiring, blah, that means the celtics have 3-4 players more than you'd expect to have in your regular rotation due to first rounder alone.  also, i haven't included possible veteran signings or the likelihood that a credible player might come out of one of 2nd rounders.  and i expect ainge to score on at least one of his second rounders.

the point here is that there will be a roster crunch pretty quickly...simply too many guaranteed contracts are on the immediate horizon. 

so, what solutions are there for this embarrassment of riches?
 
one possible solution is the obvious one - package them for a smaller number of very high picks.  the straightforward answer is, of course, simple ... trade a bundle of the so-so picks for something in the top 5. that solution leads us to this interesting study done on the value of draft picks.

fivethirtyeight.com did a study (http://fivethirtyeig...y-really-worth/) suggesting that the proper value for four non-lottery first rounders is approximately the third and fourth picks in a typical draft.  ok, but that strikes me as more than most GMs would actually give the celtics. picks that high up in the draft are valued too highly by most GMs who are all praying for the next lebron. so while tempting, this is an unlikely scenario. so let's look at other possible scenarios.

next would be for ainge to package his many pennies, nickels, and dimes for a smaller number of quarters and dollars. that is, as with the KG and ray trades, use the first rounders with other assets to grab the big star. this reduces the roster crunch. ainge has done an incredible job of acquiring a range of resources, including picks, a range of salaries, TE, etc. and ainge is one of the most "wheeling and dealing" GMs in the nba. he is a gambler and now he has chips to play with.

third, ainge might simple play leapfrog with the picks, ala the play for olly last year. for example, use picks 22 and 24 to grab a player at 17. or use 10 and 20 to move up to 8. if another team at 8 thinks their player will still there at 10, they will probably bite on such an offer. while this may not place the celtics in the top 5 picks, it does allow ainge the chance to grab a great player that is falling...and as we know with pierce and rondo, sometimes that happens.

a fourth option is open to ainge, one in which there's more value in keeping the picks, though that may bring us back to the problem of the pending roster crunch.  it may be wise to draw upon one of danny's true talents - spotting talent in the late-first-round. danny's been good at finding late first-round gems and with so many such picks, it might be more sensible to take players with question marks and high upside like marvelous-melo (tm), rondo, and sullinger, knowing that it's a good thing to miss some of the time. remember, the nba average for getting a credible player late in the first round is around 25%, danny does better historically. this means that the celtics would select "high risk, high ceiling" players intentionally betting that half or more would never last in the nba. danny would swing for the fences with each and every pick and say "screw it" to selecting nice, safe role players.

final option, i suppose keeping players overseas for a season or two is another option. but this only postpones the pending roster crunch, which while better than nothing, does not resolve it. nor are there enough good players would be a fit here, but it is one possibilty.
 
so, after all that, i ask the collective wisdom of cb - what's the best plan here? package assets?  or be like big papi and swing for the fences with most of these picks and assume that you'll hit on some, miss on others?

Nice post.

The other thing to do is trade them for future first rounders that you project will be slightly better in the next year. For example, a team lacks a 2016 first rounder or a team sees a late 1st rounder they really like; trade them the dallas 2016 for a 2017 pick that you hope is in the teens instead of 20s. Repeat annually until you get a high pick or have enough spots on your roster. Or it doesn't have to be a better pick; business side, just trade a 2016 for 2017+cash, then a 2017 for 2018+cash and keep revenue good as long as you've got too many picks anyway.

Interestingly, you could trade a future pick with "reverse protections" like our current dallas one. so say a contender in 2016 is prospect depleted and wants a player in the 20s to develp and provide young legs. Trade them one of the 1sts at, say, 20, for a 2017 that is protected 18-30 for 3 years then unprotected or something. Maybe in one of those years it lands at 15 and you've improved the value.


As an aside, I LOVE keeping distant unprotected picks from other teams. I think you should always keep these if you can when you rebuild. This is one of the better ways to add a "Rose," or a "George" or an "Irving" level player to an already .500 or better team by that time.

good call on the "rolling picks over" option. wish i had thought of it.

ainge just has a bushel basket of assets right now, draft picks being perhaps the most fungible among them. i expect ainge will use all of options above to varying ends depending upon opportunities.

but i do like your plan of keeping an on going supply of first round picks.

[Eja117]

Picks are not worth what they used to be.

agreed