I think the third option is the most reasonable (although only a slight improvement), but I chose #4 with me heart instead of my head. I love Rondo, but I would rather the Mavs just miss the playoffs and the Cs get a [late] lottery pick this year. I realize that the pick has more potential for 2016, but with such a heavy protection on it, I would rather just cash in now and eventually sweep this whole mess under the rug.
#7 isn't that heavy of a protection. The likelihood that the Mavs completely tank next year is about the same as the 13th or 14th pick winding up winning the lottery. They've got a very good team with most of their key players under contract for next year. An injury could cause a dip, and in the West that could knock you out of the playoffs, but it would take multiple season-canceling injuries for the Mavs to finish so low that their protection kicks in.
Thank you.
What we acquired is, like what Chris Mannix said, a late 2016 first round pick. We actually probably have a better chance of resigning Rondo than that pick being meaningful.
While I do love the idea of resigning Rondo next summer, I'd say there's a 50% chance that pick is 26-30 (Mavs a top 4 team in West) a 40% chance that pick is between 18-25 (Mavs a playoff team that's better than a lot of teams in the East, but not top 4 in West), and 10% chance that it's 13-14 (Mavs take a step back due to age finally catching up with Nowitzski and/or other major injury and being one of the top teams to miss playoffs). I think it more likely that our pick is useful than Rondo comes back.
That said, my preference would have been to have the same protection on the pick this year and next, with the top 7 protection coming into play in 2017. Four first round picks next year is bordering on unusable, and I fear the NBA could kill the 2016 draft if they finally follow through on raising the age limit for that draft.