http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12049188/nba-boston-celtics-get-better-rajon-rondo-dallas-mavericks-dealI copied the whole article as it's part of ESPN Insider.
Here's a breakdown of the trade in principle between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday.
Celtics get: Guard Jameer Nelson, forward Jae Crowder, center Brandan Wright, a 2015 first-round pick and a 2016 second-round pick
Mavericks get: Guard Rajon Rondo, forward Dwight Powell
Dallas Mavericks: B-
In his first public explanation for why the Sacramento Kings fired head coach Michael Malone, Kings owner Vivek Ranadive had an interesting comment.
"Just because you win 50 games, doesn't mean you can be satisfied with the status quo," he said, referencing the challenging Western Conference. While it's still unclear how exactly that sentiment related to Ranadive's franchise, which has yet to reach that level of success, it seems to help explain why the Mavericks would shake up their lineup so dramatically despite being on track for 58 wins behind what has been the most effective offense in NBA history.
Despite a 19-8 record, Dallas still stood sixth in the Western Conference, and recent losses to the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors seemed to reinforce the gap between the Mavericks and the West's top teams. So Dallas was willing to make a bold move that stands the chance of propelling the team into the conference's upper crust.
As noted, the Mavericks have been putting points on the board. Their 118.3 offensive rating is 9.8 percent better than league average, which would be the best relative rating dating back to the NBA-ABA merger. Dallas' problems have entirely been at the defensive end. Despite the return of Tyson Chandler to anchor the middle, the Mavericks are 20th in defensive rating, worst of any projected West playoff team. This trade could help.
As great as Wright has been on the offensive end, Dallas is allowing 3.2 more points per 100 possessions with him on the floor than with Chandler at center. Only J.J. Barea has a worse on-court defensive rating among the Mavericks' raters, per NBA.com/stats. So his loss won't hurt -- and might help -- on defense.
Meanwhile Rondo, while struggling against quicker guards this season, remains a positive defensive presence through the prism of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM). He rates 1.3 points better than average per 100 possessions on defense this season, placing him fourth among point guards and far ahead of the average Nelson (minus-0.4 points per 100 possessions on D). In particular, Rondo's terrific defensive rebounding can help a team that ranks 29th on the defensive glass; remarkably, Chandler is the only Mavericks regular with a better defensive rebound rate.
If we're going to reference RPM, however, it must be noted that Rondo has rated as one of the league's weakest offensive point guards at minus-1.4 points per 100 possessions, putting him right between Shane Larkin and Luke Ridnour.
Rondo's offense has always been difficult to quantify because his game is all extremes. He remains a premier playmaker, and his league-leading assist rate (14.7 percent) is the second best of his career. Rondo's dimes single-handedly made Tyler Zeller into a useful scorer this season; Zeller is shooting 68.2 percent this season with Rondo, and 50.0 percent without him, per NBA.com/stats. So it's easy to see him continuing the devastating pick-and-roll game that has been responsible for Dallas' offensive success.
At the same time, Rondo's shooting has gone from bad to disastrous this season. He's making just 43.5 percent of his 2-point attempts, his lowest mark since his rookie season, and is an unthinkable 12-of-36 from the free throw line. Whether because of the free throw woes or declining athleticism, Rondo's rate of shots around the rim has dropped precipitously, and he's attempted nearly as many midrange jumpers as all of last season.
Ultimately, the biggest problem I see here is that the Mavericks already had an effective point guard: Monta Ellis, who effectively played the position with Nelson largely off the ball. Nobody in the NBA has run more pick-and-roll plays that led to shots, according to Synergy Sports, a number that is sure to come down with Rondo splitting those opportunities. And while Rick Carlisle could split up their minutes as much as possible, the second unit already has its own pick-and-roll point guard in Barea.
Rondo can be dangerous as a cutter, but opponents don't have to respect his shooting when he plays off the ball. Ellis is less of a liability, but still a below-average shooter from beyond the arc (30.4 percent this season, 31.8 percent career). Neither is as effective spotting up away from the pick-and-roll as Nelson (36.9 percent from 3) or Devin Harris (41.2 percent).
Add in the downgrade from Wright to Greg Smith behind Chandler -- a loss that would be exacerbated in the case of an extended Chandler absence, since the Mavericks don't have anyone else on the roster who can protect the rim -- and it's entirely possible Dallas has lost as much offensively as it has gained defensively.
That's the real risk the Mavericks are taking here. The picks (one first-rounder, likely to fall late in the round) aren't enough to make a huge difference in the long run, so there's little downside there. But a move designed to help Dallas win now could actually hamper those chances. If the Mavericks felt this unit was going nowhere and they had to take a gamble to win the West, I can understand that, but I can't entirely agree with it.
Boston Celtics: B+
It's easy to look at the Celtics' haul for a four-time All-Star and think, "That's it?" But other teams have scouts, and have seen the same issues with Rondo that could limit his value to the Mavericks. There's also the question of how much teams are willing to surrender for a player who will become a free agent at season's end.
Teams with cap space coming, like the L.A. Lakers and New York Knicks, would be sacrificing not only whatever assets were required to land Rondo but also a player they could have signed in free agency for the same cost. (Dallas could have cleared enough money to potentially sign Rondo outright but would likely have had to sacrifice Chandler to do so, making a trade a more appealing option for the Mavericks.)
So dealing Rondo has ultimately added only a single first-round selection, almost certainly a late one at that, to Boston's treasure trove of future picks. At the same time, the Celtics have also added a couple of interesting players to their rebuilding mix.
The most important is Wright, and a case could be made that he's actually the most valuable player in this deal. Wright, long an advanced-stat darling, has become a per-minute superstar this season. He ranks fifth in the league in PER, directly between MVP leaders Stephen Curry and James Harden, though that obviously overstates Wright's value.
All players' statistics are a product of their own skills and the context in which they play, and the latter looms large for Wright. He's been turned loose in a pick-and-roll system built around creating easy opportunities for the roll man around the rim. So both Wright (74.8 percent, which would surpass Wilt Chamberlain's league record of 72.7 percent) and Chandler (67.9 percent) have been ultra-high-percentage finishers.
Wright surely won't be as effective in Boston, without Dirk Nowitzki spacing the floor or a premier pick-and-roll point guard. Ironically, Wright would be well-suited to play with Rondo, filling the role in which Zeller has excelled this season. That won't be the case, but Wright can still be a useful complement to Jared Sullinger. The duo would together supply all the bulk, length and shooting necessary for a modern frontcourt.
That assumes, of course, that the Celtics hold on to Wright. As an expiring contract with a reasonable $5 million salary, Wright could easily be flipped for additional draft picks or prospects between now and the deadline. Boston may also look to move the remaining season and a half of Nelson's contract to a contender for whom he could serve as a reliable backup point guard.
The final piece of this deal, Crowder, was squeezed this season in Dallas by the arrival of the similar Al-Farouq Aminu. Still, there's a place in the league for his energetic defense and athleticism. In many ways, Crowder is a poor man's version of Celtics small forward Gerald Wallace. He'd fit well alongside a frontcourt of Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk that has ample shooting but is limited defensively, and can be part of the trapping units Brad Stevens has used at times to lead comebacks.
So this package, while perhaps not what Boston fans were dreaming of getting when the day came that Rondo was finally traded, is still far better than letting him walk in free agency. The Celtics have already signaled their commitment to the rebuilding process, and this deal simply closes the book on the era that brought Boston its 17th championship.
So we actually got a better grade, and that's not even taking into consideration the 12.9 trade exception they didn't mention here. Interesting.
Topic: ESPN grades the Rondo trade (Read 1921 times)