The Boston Celtics are on track for 27 wins this season + other stats

[chambers]

So we are currently on pace for 27 wins.

Some other interesting facts after the first 12 games:

The Celtics are ranked:

#1 in field goal attempts at 88 per game
#5 in points scored per game at 104.7
#3 in Field Goal percentage at 47.2% from those 88 attempts per game
#14 in rebounding at 42.7 rebounds per game whilst holding the 5th best defensive rebound percentage rate in the NBA at 77.7%
* 4th worst in opponent field goal percentage at  47.6%

*The 5th worst defensive rating in the NBA at 106.9 points allowed per 100 possessions and the 3rd worst opponents point allowed per game at 107.2 points scored against us per game. This is behind the Lakers and Minnesota.
*What's interesting about this is that at home we are allowing 108 points per possession and on the road that number is 106.
*The good news is that our last 3 games we allowed an average of 100.3 points per game which would put us at #20 in the NBA rather than #27.

*We are also the 3rd worst three point shooting team in the NBA at 30%, and we are #10 at 3 point attempts per game.

*We are allowing 49.8 points in the paint per game which is the WORST in the NBA.

We are on track for 27 wins, but if we trade Green, Bass and Thornton we will likely lose a few more.

Start thinking about our top 6 pick again- it's another decent draft with a lot of bigs.
Also start thinking about what players we may be able to trade for with that pick and the picks we already have. It appears that this team has been structured to score a lot of points, build up the value of certain assets, whilst letting teams crush us inside and ultimately lose more games than we win with a purposely built lack of rim protection and shot alteration.
The players are playing their hearts out, unfortunately the front office has other ideas and values picks, cap room and assets more than anything as we head into a summer with some very nice free agents and players with player options available.

What are your thoughts?

[BleedGreen1989]

Thanks for this. Interesting stuff.

Points in the paint is glaring. This team really, really needs a defensive minded big.

The schedule isn't getting any easier and I do wonder at what point is it going to be "too late" this season to make a "win now" trade. At what point will it be futile?

[manl_lui]

No more tanking!

Our offense is doing well, so we can keep working on that. At this point this is sort of a common sense statement. Our defense SUCKS. It's crap. We need a rim protector VERY VERY bad. Most of the losses we had were against teams with good big duos.

Dwight and Jones destroyed us
Dirk and Chandler destroyed us
Zach and Gasol destroyed us
yesterday, Aldridge and Lopez destroyed us

if anything, I feel optimistic with some of these loss'. Like with the Cavaliers, Raptors, Portland and the major comeback vs Dallas

We could hang with some of these above average to elite teams. Our defense need major work. If our defense is respectable and even average (and not bottom 10), 2-3 games could've been won

[Evantime34]

Some positive stats
1. We have the 7th most difficult schedule in the league. We play in potentially the worst division in basketball so by the end of the season we will be closer to the easiest schedule than the most difficult. I'm not willing to kick dirt on our season until we see how we do against the Eastern conference teams.
2. Basketball Reference has a rating that uses point differential and strength of schedule to determine how good a team is. Take this for what it's worth but in that we are the 15th best team in the league.

Yes the season hasn't been great to start, but we have about as difficult a schedule as you can have out of the gate.

[Fafnir]

Some positive stats
1. We have the 7th most difficult schedule in the league. We play in potentially the worst division in basketball so by the end of the season we will be closer to the easiest schedule than the most difficult. I'm not willing to kick dirt on our season until we see how we do against the Eastern conference teams.
2. Basketball Reference has a rating that uses point differential and strength of schedule to determine how good a team is. Take this for what it's worth but in that we are the 15th best team in the league.

Yes the season hasn't been great to start, but we have about as difficult a schedule as you can have out of the gate.

Yeah, if we keep playing at the same level we should win more of these close games and have a better record than last year, especially given the schedule.

Not that I'm very confident that we will at the moment.

[Csfan1984]

At end of year will be interesting to see if they shot over 36% from 3 the number of games they would possibly have won.

[Evantime34]

Thanks for this. Interesting stuff.

Points in the paint is glaring. This team really, really needs a defensive minded big.

The schedule isn't getting any easier and I do wonder at what point is it going to be "too late" this season to make a "win now" trade. At what point will it be futile?

Our schedule is getting easier. I wouldn't be surprised if we had an above .500 December.

That's not to say I'm confident, just that I'm not willing to write this team off completely just yet.

[fairweatherfan]

#13 in opponent field goal percentage at  59.6%

Can you clarify this?  Opponents aren't shooting ~60% against us - is this a true shooting % or something?

...anyway, I think extrapolating to 27 wins isn't really very useful at this point, since we've played an unusually tough schedule.  We knew going into the season that the first 14 games would be brutal - 11 playoff teams, plus a team expected to contend for the conference (Cleveland) and the lottery team with the best record in league history (Phoenix).   Philly is the only team we've played that finished below .500 last season.

So far, we've consistently competed for 3-3.5 quarters against high-end competition, then usually fallen apart at the end (the Bulls are one of a couple notable exceptions).  If we continue to blow games against bad teams, then it won't look good.  But until we play those teams, it's too soon to start counting Ping-Pong balls.

[rondohondo]

So we are currently on pace for 27 wins.

Some other interesting facts after the first 12 games:

The Celtics are ranked:

#1 in field goal attempts at 88 per game
#5 in points scored per game at 104.7
#3 in Field Goal percentage at 47.2% from those 88 attempts per game
#14 in rebounding at 42.7 rebounds per game whilst holding the 5th best defensive rebound percentage rate in the NBA at 77.7%
#13 in opponent field goal percentage at  59.6%

*The 5th worst defensive rating in the NBA at 106.9 points allowed per 100 possessions and the 3rd worst opponents point allowed per game at 107.2 points scored against us per game. This is behind the Lakers and Minnesota.
*What's interesting about this is that at home we are allowing 108 points per possession and on the road that number is 106.
*The good news is that our last 3 games we allowed an average of 100.3 points per game which would put us at #20 in the NBA rather than #27.

*We are also the 3rd worst three point shooting team in the NBA at 30%, and we are #10 at 3 point attempts per game.

*We are allowing 49.8 points in the paint per game which is the WORST in the NBA.

We are on track for 27 wins, but if we trade Green, Bass and Thornton we will likely lose a few more.

Start thinking about our top 6 pick again- it's another decent draft with a lot of bigs.
Also start thinking about what players we may be able to trade for with that pick and the picks we already have. It appears that this team has been structured to score a lot of points, build up the value of certain assets, whilst letting teams crush us inside and ultimately lose more games than we win with a purposely built lack of rim protection and shot alteration.
The players are playing their hearts out, unfortunately the front office has other ideas and values picks, cap room and assets more than anything as we head into a summer with some very nice free agents and players with player options available.

What are your thoughts?

Nothing shocking there with the stats , but I completely agree with the last paragraph . 

Trade Bass and Bradley(if we can) to contenders for future assets. I would rather trade Bradley than Green because the contracts  . Drop down and get a top 5-8 pick.  Keep Jeff around to lure old college teammate Roy Hibbert . Paul George is a question mark coming back, plus I think playing with a PG like Rondo could really help his offensive game .

Let's say we can sign Hibbert in the off-season.

Core moving forward should be

Rondo                   /  Vet Min
Smart                   /  Young
Green (exp)          /  2015 Lotto pick
Sully                    / KO
Hibbert               / Zellar ?
 
Other Assets
* 2015 Clippers 1st rd
* 2015 Philly     2nd rd( which is basically a 1st , because they are the worst team in the league)
* 2016 Bos       1st rd
* 2016 Brk        1st rd ( Possible lottery)
* 2016 Cle        1st rd
*2017 Bos/Brk  1st rd ( Possible lottery )
*2018 Brk         1st rd ( Possible lottery)   

I think I would eventually offer a lot of those picks for Melo  to add to Rondo and Hibbert . I like the balance of that team . Sully and Smart as high end role players. KO coming off the bench as 6th man .  Fill the rest with vets who can 3 and D

[Eddie20]

So we are currently on pace for 27 wins.

Some other interesting facts after the first 12 games:

The Celtics are ranked:

#1 in field goal attempts at 88 per game
#5 in points scored per game at 104.7
#3 in Field Goal percentage at 47.2% from those 88 attempts per game
#14 in rebounding at 42.7 rebounds per game whilst holding the 5th best defensive rebound percentage rate in the NBA at 77.7%
#13 in opponent field goal percentage at  59.6%

*The 5th worst defensive rating in the NBA at 106.9 points allowed per 100 possessions and the 3rd worst opponents point allowed per game at 107.2 points scored against us per game. This is behind the Lakers and Minnesota.
*What's interesting about this is that at home we are allowing 108 points per possession and on the road that number is 106.
*The good news is that our last 3 games we allowed an average of 100.3 points per game which would put us at #20 in the NBA rather than #27.

*We are also the 3rd worst three point shooting team in the NBA at 30%, and we are #10 at 3 point attempts per game.

*We are allowing 49.8 points in the paint per game which is the WORST in the NBA.

We are on track for 27 wins, but if we trade Green, Bass and Thornton we will likely lose a few more.

Start thinking about our top 6 pick again- it's another decent draft with a lot of bigs.
Also start thinking about what players we may be able to trade for with that pick and the picks we already have. It appears that this team has been structured to score a lot of points, build up the value of certain assets, whilst letting teams crush us inside and ultimately lose more games than we win with a purposely built lack of rim protection and shot alteration.
The players are playing their hearts out, unfortunately the front office has other ideas and values picks, cap room and assets more than anything as we head into a summer with some very nice free agents and players with player options available.

What are your thoughts?

Nothing shocking there with the stats , but I completely agree with the last paragraph . 

Trade Bass and Bradley(if we can) to contenders for future assets. I would rather trade Bradley than Green because the contracts  . Drop down and get a top 5-8 pick.  Keep Jeff around to lure old college teammate Roy Hibbert . Paul George is a question mark coming back, plus I think playing with a PG like Rondo could really help his offensive game .

Let's say we can sign Hibbert in the off-season.

Core moving forward should be

Rondo                   /  Vet Min
Smart                   /  Young
Green (exp)          /  2015 Lotto pick
Sully                    / KO
Hibbert               / Zellar ?
 
Other Assets
* 2015 Clippers 1st rd
* 2015 Philly     2nd rd( which is basically a 1st , because they are the worst team in the league)
* 2016 Bos       1st rd
* 2016 Brk        1st rd ( Possible lottery)
* 2016 Cle        1st rd
*2017 Bos/Brk  1st rd ( Possible lottery )
*2018 Brk         1st rd ( Possible lottery)   

I think I would eventually offer a lot of those picks for Melo  to add to Rondo and Hibbert . I like the balance of that team . Sully and Smart as high end role players. KO coming off the bench as 6th man .  Fill the rest with vets who can 3 and D

You forgot to include our own 1st rd pick in 2018 and Phillys 2nd rd pick in 2016.

[BleedGreen1989]

Thanks for this. Interesting stuff.

Points in the paint is glaring. This team really, really needs a defensive minded big.

The schedule isn't getting any easier and I do wonder at what point is it going to be "too late" this season to make a "win now" trade. At what point will it be futile?

Our schedule is getting easier. I wouldn't be surprised if we had an above .500 December.

That's not to say I'm confident, just that I'm not willing to write this team off completely just yet.

Yeah, I'm likely being too pessimistic.

The offense really isn't a concern to me but our defense makes me want to vomit. Teams are absolutely having their way with us and unless Stevens schemes something different or Danny adds a defensive big, I don't see us getting a whole lot more successful.

[slamtheking]

27 wins?  feeling like a genius because that's the number I picked before the season started

[Celtics4ever]

I picked them to win between 27-32 wins, with 27 being the low side.   I like our fight and even we are losing we have been fun to watch most games.

The rim protection promise was clearly broken.

[Smartacus]

As for the draft spot wed be looking at Myles Turner, Willy Caulue Stein, Stanley Johnson, Justise Winslow or Kelly Oubre.

Any of these players could carved out a role on this team.

[chambers]

#13 in opponent field goal percentage at  59.6%

Can you clarify this?  Opponents aren't shooting ~60% against us - is this a true shooting % or something?

...anyway, I think extrapolating to 27 wins isn't really very useful at this point, since we've played an unusually tough schedule.  We knew going into the season that the first 14 games would be brutal - 11 playoff teams, plus a team expected to contend for the conference (Cleveland) and the lottery team with the best record in league history (Phoenix).   Philly is the only team we've played that finished below .500 last season.

So far, we've consistently competed for 3-3.5 quarters against high-end competition, then usually fallen apart at the end (the Bulls are one of a couple notable exceptions).  If we continue to blow games against bad teams, then it won't look good.  But until we play those teams, it's too soon to start counting Ping-Pong balls.

Yeah my bad I'm not sure what that state was, the actual stay was 46% Opp.  Fg% and that may have been true shooting %.

Teamrankings.com  has us at 32.6 wins and 29% chance of making the playoffs.
Being in the East gives us a great shot at getting 30 wins but 32 is a stretch to me.