Author Topic: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star  (Read 24670 times)

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Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #90 on: November 20, 2014, 08:23:41 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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http://www.82games.com/1415/1415BOS5.HTM

I recognize that this is a small sample at this point in the season but I find it interesting that based on Position PER, our two strongest positions are SF and C while most of the "conventional wisdom" is that our strongest positions are PG and PF.

Sullinger has minutes at both PF and C and actually has much better PER numbers according to 82Games when he plays C. http://www.82games.com/1415/14BOS12.HTM .
 
Go figure....   

(I recognize that PER is not an end all stat but it is reasonable to gage a trend or relative performance).


Some of those numbers seem shaky. Here's why:

According to the team data we are +5.9 at C and +2.2 at SF and -1.6 at PF, -3.3 at SG and -2.7 at PG, right?

So then go to the C's front page and look at the individual players. Let's look at who as an individual is positive:
Sullinger is +9; according to the same site he's played twice as much at PF than at C. Smart is at +2.3 and Rondo is at 2.0 vs their opponent; these guys should be our PGs. Zeller is +1.2, so between his contribution and Sully's C contribution, that's the C positive component. Thornton is +2.9, 5 times as much at SG than SF, but SF is the one that is positive. Everyone else is Negative. Green, the majority of time at SF, is negative, but somehow SF as the team is positive.

I don't know. Seems sloppy. Basically our positive players are 2 PGs, a solid young player best suited at PF long term, a journeyman gunner SG and a young interesting C playing only 14 mpg.

Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #91 on: November 21, 2014, 12:39:12 PM »

Offline nostar

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Sully is playing like at an all-star level. Who are the all-star PFs in the East? Here is my list:

Bosh
Gasol
Harris
Millsap
Love
Sully

With that tidy list here is a comparison:
http://bkref.com/tiny/EY1lU

Sully has the best FG%, 3rd highest PPG, 2nd highest rebounding numbers and leads in offensive win shares, win shares per/48, VORP and overall +/-. That is without delving in to his assist numbers or the fact that he has a lower turnover ratio than anyone on that list.

Now, I will say that we're not a playoff team and that guys putting up numbers on playoff teams should get the nod. I would also say that Sully has some pretty big holes in his game. He, as though this was obvious, can't shoot the 3 well enough to merit the amount he takes, and he hasn't been good defensively this season.

It's worth noting that Sully is transitioning from being a center in the NBA to being a PF. The last two seasons about 70% of his court time was as a center. This season that number is down to 35%. I'm not saying that he doesn't have experience as a PF, he has over 1300 minutes of time logged there. It's just something to consider when judging his defense over the past 10 games. In seasons past he's been an above average defensive player while playing out of position. My feeling is that he'll get there.

At the moment Sully is outplaying Love, Millsap and Harris, albeit not by much. He scores more than they do, shoots a higher FG% and gets more rebounds per-36 than any of them while dishing out 3+ assists per game. Gasol outscores and rebounds Sully while also being on a top-flight EC team. Bosh is a #1 option putting up the best scoring of the bunch.

Unfortunately the way all-star voting works Sully won't be an all-star. There are 3 forward spots and in the EC those will go to James, Melo and Bosh. Backups will likely be Gasol, Love and maybe Vucevic.

Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #92 on: November 21, 2014, 01:04:26 PM »

Offline ScoobyDoo

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If Sullinger "really" gets in shape ( I acknowledge he's made improvements since last season, and good ones), but I'm talking about Karl Malone, Kendrick Perkins, Barkeley type physical transformations) he could be a 20-10 guy.

It's really up to him and about getting into the absolute best possible shape he can get into that enables him to maximize "his" ceiling for speed, quickness, lift and strength.

Just by looking at him from last year to this year, I'd say on a scale of 100 for peak physical condition I think he's at about 65 yo 70 percent and he's doing a lot of damage at that level...

Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #93 on: November 21, 2014, 05:21:57 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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http://www.82games.com/1415/1415BOS5.HTM

I recognize that this is a small sample at this point in the season but I find it interesting that based on Position PER, our two strongest positions are SF and C while most of the "conventional wisdom" is that our strongest positions are PG and PF.

Sullinger has minutes at both PF and C and actually has much better PER numbers according to 82Games when he plays C. http://www.82games.com/1415/14BOS12.HTM .
 
Go figure....   

(I recognize that PER is not an end all stat but it is reasonable to gage a trend or relative performance).


Some of those numbers seem shaky. Here's why:

According to the team data we are +5.9 at C and +2.2 at SF and -1.6 at PF, -3.3 at SG and -2.7 at PG, right?

So then go to the C's front page and look at the individual players. Let's look at who as an individual is positive:
Sullinger is +9; according to the same site he's played twice as much at PF than at C. Smart is at +2.3 and Rondo is at 2.0 vs their opponent; these guys should be our PGs. Zeller is +1.2, so between his contribution and Sully's C contribution, that's the C positive component. Thornton is +2.9, 5 times as much at SG than SF, but SF is the one that is positive. Everyone else is Negative. Green, the majority of time at SF, is negative, but somehow SF as the team is positive.

I don't know. Seems sloppy. Basically our positive players are 2 PGs, a solid young player best suited at PF long term, a journeyman gunner SG and a young interesting C playing only 14 mpg.

The net 'by position' differentials are positional PER differentials whereas the plus/minus numbers on the front page are simple net plus/minus ratings.  They are totally different numbers so don't look for them to match up.

If you look at Sullinger's positional page, in the third of his time that he has played the Center position, he has posted a PER of 36.3, whereas during those minutes, the opposing team's Center has posted a PER of 12.2.  Thus, for those minutes, the Celtics enjoyed a positional advantage of 24.1 PER rating at that position.

In his minutes at PF, the Net PER advantage has been smaller, just 1.5.   Yet he has played 2/3 of his minutes at that position.

When Kelly has been at center, his net positional PER differential has been -1.6.  He's enjoyed a much better positional advantage at PF, with a net PER of 5.6, but he has played only 11% of his minutes at PF.

Finally, Zeller has played all of his limited minutes at Center, and has posted a net PER of 5.5.

Bass hasn't really played Center at all - just a blink of time so we'll ignore him.

Basically what this shows is that we've actually manned the Center position with those three guys to an aggregate of:

Kelly:  234 minutes at Net PER of -1.5
Sully:  108 minutes at Net PER of +24.1
Zeller: 138 minutes at Net PER of 5.5

The weighted average of that is: +5.9   So that's where that number comes from.

Now, the simplistic analysis might think that this means that Sully should be playing center more than Kelly and Kelly should be playing more PF than Sully.  And maybe that is true.  Or not.  You have to look at the actual match ups.  Maybe, in this short, small-sample season so far Sully has played center against inferior opposing centers.  Or maybe Kelly has had the fortune of playing PF against inferior PFs.  The sample sizes need to get bigger and against more varied opponents before we use this sort of data to start to form an opinion.

Similarly, at other positions.  For example, the team SF net PER is +2.2.   Green's personal overall  net PER is negative, so you ask how can that be?  Well, Green's net PER at the SF position is a solid +5.2.  It's the 19% of his minutes that he's been at PF that are killing his PER rating as, at that position his Net PER is a horrible -19.3.

In addition to dragging Green's individual net numbers down, of course, his minutes at PF also drag down the team's positional Net PER at PF.   That's why, even though both Sully and Kelly have overall positive PF numbers, the team Net PER at PF is just -1.6.

Dear Brad:  Please.  Stop putting Green at PF.  This is something a lot of us have been screaming about for years.  Green is an SF.  Not a PF.  Oh, and while you are at it, please keep Turner at SG.  He is sucking wind at SF.

And so on.   Hopefully this makes the numbers a little clearer.

It also suggests that so far, we probably have not always played players at the most optimal positions.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2014, 05:37:00 PM by mmmmm »
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Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #94 on: November 21, 2014, 05:54:31 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
If Sullinger "really" gets in shape ( I acknowledge he's made improvements since last season, and good ones), but I'm talking about Karl Malone, Kendrick Perkins, Barkeley type physical transformations) he could be a 20-10 guy.

It's really up to him and about getting into the absolute best possible shape he can get into that enables him to maximize "his" ceiling for speed, quickness, lift and strength.

Just by looking at him from last year to this year, I'd say on a scale of 100 for peak physical condition I think he's at about 65 yo 70 percent and he's doing a lot of damage at that level...

I agree completely, time to take the next step and be a true professional.

Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #95 on: November 21, 2014, 06:16:16 PM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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Maybe Ainge has been keeping Sully fat all this time. For his contract year. More leverage.

Though if they were negotiating on seesaws, Sully would have a lot more leverage.

I hate myself.

Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #96 on: November 21, 2014, 06:26:19 PM »

Offline Nerf DPOY

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Maybe Ainge has been keeping Sully fat all this time. For his contract year. More leverage.

Though if they were negotiating on seesaws, Sully would have a lot more leverage.

I hate myself.

Don't. I'm thoroughly bored with all of the latest forum topics. It was the right time for a post like this.

Have a TP.