Author Topic: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star  (Read 24717 times)

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Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #45 on: November 19, 2014, 11:07:11 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

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If he is able to get in shape then he might be a borderline all star. Until that happens he is just hurting himself and his potential.

Seems to be progressing just fine to me.

I assume it's flying under the radar because good players on bad teams aren't worth very much excitement.
Pretty much this.

DMC was shrugged at around the league till this year when the Kings started winning some games. If they fall back to earth he'll be shrugged at again..

This is true, but I was referring more to the lack of excitement within our own Celtics fan community. James Young comes in and hits one three and suddenly he's the next Klay Thompson, yet Sully's posting 15/9/3 and can hardly get any love. I guess the more they play, the less we like them  ::)

In limited minutes. Someone please look up his 36 min adjustment. Been saying this for 2 seasons now... he's borderline all-star caliber player in the East.

  Right now he's one of 8 players in the league who averages 18/10 per36, one of only 3 in the east.


This is my point. His minutes are "limited" because he can't stay on the court for 36 minutes a game. Which brings me back to my original comment. If he was able to get in shape he might be a borderline all star, but since he can't get in shape and can't stay on the court for those 36 minutes, those PER36 stats mean nothing to me.

Jusuf Nurkic is averaging 17 points and 15 rebounds per 36 minutes. And to me that basically means, "So what?"
In limited minutes. Someone please look up his 36 min adjustment. Been saying this for 2 seasons now... he's borderline all-star caliber player in the East.
Tyler Zeller and Marcus Thornton are averaging 18 pp36 "in limited minutes". Perhaps they're "borderline all-stars" too?

Actually playing the time is part of the equation.

This is a terrible argument. Sully plays 30 minutes a game. Using per 36 to project the type of player he could be if he got in fair enough shape to play 5-6 more mins. is far more relevant and appropriate than using it to project the type of player Tyler Zeller could be if he played a whopping 22 more mins. than he does now. Sully's per 36 is primarily based on actual data and has little to do with extrapolation. Zeller's per 36 has much to do with extrapolation and is thus a poor measurement for the impact he could have as a guy playing three quarters of an NBA game.

If you can't understand that, you're likely not trying to, for whatever reason.
What I understand is that being on the court for extended minutes is a measure of achievement.

If Sullinger is so great, "a borderline allstar" in some people's words, why isn't the team playing him those extra 5-6 minutes?
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Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #46 on: November 19, 2014, 11:59:39 AM »

Offline Who

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I am really annoyed at Stevens not giving Sully more minutes.

Sully would be a much better trade asset if he just got 4-5 minutes extra a game. The difference in his stats could be the difference between Boston having the best offer for a disgruntled superstar or being beaten by another offer.

Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #47 on: November 19, 2014, 12:07:32 PM »

Offline Rondo9

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I am really annoyed at Stevens not giving Sully more minutes.

Sully would be a much better trade asset if he just got 4-5 minutes extra a game. The difference in his stats could be the difference between Boston having the best offer for a disgruntled superstar or being beaten by another offer.

I think it's because of the logjam, Brandon Bass still needs to get his minutes after all. Once he's traded, I think there'll be an uptick in Sullinger's minutes.

Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #48 on: November 19, 2014, 12:22:32 PM »

Offline pearljammer10

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I am really annoyed at Stevens not giving Sully more minutes.

Sully would be a much better trade asset if he just got 4-5 minutes extra a game. The difference in his stats could be the difference between Boston having the best offer for a disgruntled superstar or being beaten by another offer.

I think it's because of the logjam, Brandon Bass still needs to get his minutes after all. Once he's traded, I think there'll be an uptick in Sullinger's minutes.

I'm with Who in using Sullinger as our best trade asset to net a superstar at the deadline. Let Bass see less minutes until the all star break, let Sully be traded and then Bass sees his minutes rise again.

Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #49 on: November 19, 2014, 12:23:26 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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I don't agree that he is playing like a borderline all star. For him to play like an an all star he would need to be knocking down 3's, and rebound at the same rate while increasing his minutes. Unfortunately he isn't in the shape to play those extended minutes at this time.

My problems with him this season has been his lack of help defense (for example, I counted 3 times last game where a Suns player got an easy layup and instead of rotating to stop penetration Sullinger just stuck to his man like glue and boxed out in case the Suns missed a gimme lay up) and his inability to knock down the 3 because of his insistence on fading away.

He is still young, but I don't think he will be an all star until he loses weight, corrects his help defense and finds consistency on his three point shooting.
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Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #50 on: November 19, 2014, 12:30:43 PM »

Offline TheFlex

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If he is able to get in shape then he might be a borderline all star. Until that happens he is just hurting himself and his potential.

Seems to be progressing just fine to me.

I assume it's flying under the radar because good players on bad teams aren't worth very much excitement.
Pretty much this.

DMC was shrugged at around the league till this year when the Kings started winning some games. If they fall back to earth he'll be shrugged at again..

This is true, but I was referring more to the lack of excitement within our own Celtics fan community. James Young comes in and hits one three and suddenly he's the next Klay Thompson, yet Sully's posting 15/9/3 and can hardly get any love. I guess the more they play, the less we like them  ::)

In limited minutes. Someone please look up his 36 min adjustment. Been saying this for 2 seasons now... he's borderline all-star caliber player in the East.

  Right now he's one of 8 players in the league who averages 18/10 per36, one of only 3 in the east.


This is my point. His minutes are "limited" because he can't stay on the court for 36 minutes a game. Which brings me back to my original comment. If he was able to get in shape he might be a borderline all star, but since he can't get in shape and can't stay on the court for those 36 minutes, those PER36 stats mean nothing to me.

Jusuf Nurkic is averaging 17 points and 15 rebounds per 36 minutes. And to me that basically means, "So what?"
In limited minutes. Someone please look up his 36 min adjustment. Been saying this for 2 seasons now... he's borderline all-star caliber player in the East.
Tyler Zeller and Marcus Thornton are averaging 18 pp36 "in limited minutes". Perhaps they're "borderline all-stars" too?

Actually playing the time is part of the equation.

This is a terrible argument. Sully plays 30 minutes a game. Using per 36 to project the type of player he could be if he got in fair enough shape to play 5-6 more mins. is far more relevant and appropriate than using it to project the type of player Tyler Zeller could be if he played a whopping 22 more mins. than he does now. Sully's per 36 is primarily based on actual data and has little to do with extrapolation. Zeller's per 36 has much to do with extrapolation and is thus a poor measurement for the impact he could have as a guy playing three quarters of an NBA game.

If you can't understand that, you're likely not trying to, for whatever reason.
What I understand is that being on the court for extended minutes is a measure of achievement.

If Sullinger is so great, "a borderline allstar" in some people's words, why isn't the team playing him those extra 5-6 minutes?

To answer your question, there is a logjam at Sully's position, especially with Stevens trying to showcase Jeff Green at the four.

Your question is rather irrelevant to the argument you were trying to make anyways. You're avoiding the subject now. Using per 36 for a guy playing 30 minutes is much different than using it for a guy playing 14. Care to challenge that contention?


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Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #51 on: November 19, 2014, 01:13:51 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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To answer your question, there is a logjam at Sully's position, especially with Stevens trying to showcase Jeff Green at the four.
Yep, that's what it is, you convinced me. We're benching our all-star because we have a "logjam". In fact, we don't -- we have 4 rotational bigs (most teams will consider this merely adequate depth), and Green has barely played any 4 this season (to be precise, he's been at the 4 for about 30 of his 315+ minutes).  ::)

Using per 36 for a guy playing 30 minutes is much different than using it for a guy playing 14.
No, not really. Until you play 36 minutes a game you haven't played 36 minutes a game, so either is pretty much a crap shoot.

But the point remains that the fact that a player can't sustain or command 36 minutes of floor time is a should absolutely be held against a player when evaluating their production.
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Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #52 on: November 19, 2014, 01:40:56 PM »

Offline TheFlex

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To answer your question, there is a logjam at Sully's position, especially with Stevens trying to showcase Jeff Green at the four.
Yep, that's what it is, you convinced me. We're benching our all-star because we have a "logjam". In fact, we don't -- we have 4 rotational bigs (most teams will consider this merely adequate depth), and Green has barely played any 4 this season (to be precise, he's been at the 4 for about 30 of his 315+ minutes).  ::)

Sully is certainly neither K. Love nor Anthony Davis, but he's no slouch either. He's arguably been our best player this season. 15/9/3 is nothing to ignore. I don't think he's an All-Star, but those are numbers that cannot evade such a discussion, and thus he is a *borderline* All-Star.

Also: 30 mins/9 games = 3 1/3 mpg. 30 + 3 1/3 = 33 1/3. It's a relevant observation considering that said 3 1/3 mins is more than 50% of the differential between the projected 36 mins and Sully's actual 30 mpg.

Using per 36 for a guy playing 30 minutes is much different than using it for a guy playing 14.
No, not really. Until you play 36 minutes a game you haven't played 36 minutes a game, so either is pretty much a crap shoot.

But the point remains that the fact that a player can't sustain or command 36 minutes of floor time is a should absolutely be held against a player when evaluating their production.

Haha, if you cannot, or refuse to (the latter being my guess since you're a smart fella) understand why it's more valid to salivate at the per 36 numbers of a player providing actual data in 83% of the desired 36 minutes than to salivate at the per 36 numbers of a player providing actual data in 39% of the desired 36 minutes, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.


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Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #53 on: November 19, 2014, 01:41:33 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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Most All-Star bigs don't play 36 mpg.  Last year only Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge did, and they were at 36.3 and 36.2.   Tim Duncan hasn't cracked 36 mpg in a decade. 

Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #54 on: November 19, 2014, 02:03:17 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Also: 30 mins/9 games = 3 1/3 mpg. 30 + 3 1/3 = 33 1/3. It's a relevant observation considering that said 3 1/3 mins is more than 50% of the differential between the projected 36 mins and Sully's actual 30 mpg.
The problem is Sullinger was also on the court for 22 of those 30 minutes, so in the end he may or may not be using a minute a game or so...

Haha, if you cannot, or refuse to (the latter being my guess since you're a smart fella) understand why it's more valid to salivate at the per 36 numbers of a player providing actual data in 83% of the desired 36 minutes than to salivate at the per 36 numbers of a player providing actual data in 39% of the desired 36 minutes, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.
Fine, I'm exaggerating to make a point. But I still don't think the whole limited minutes narrative strengthens Sullinger's hypothetical ASG bid in any way.
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Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #55 on: November 19, 2014, 02:04:08 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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He's been a top 15 big man this year so far... his numbers are similar to Greg Monroe.

Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #56 on: November 19, 2014, 02:34:06 PM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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I am really annoyed at Stevens not giving Sully more minutes.

Sully would be a much better trade asset if he just got 4-5 minutes extra a game. The difference in his stats could be the difference between Boston having the best offer for a disgruntled superstar or being beaten by another offer.

I don't have any data to back this up, but I'm guessing it's because Sully isn't physically up to playing at our pace for that many minutes. I don't think it's a coincidence that the one guy on our team who IS getting 35 minutes a night (Jeff Green) is our best athlete.

Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #57 on: November 19, 2014, 03:29:48 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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No, he's not.

Sully is playing like a starting caliber big man but nowhere near All-Star level.



Exactly, Sully is a very good NBA player but if he is your first or second best player on the team then that means that team is not that good. He is not an all-star.

He's 22 years old...

There may be a valid argument that Sullinger does not have All-Star potential but I have yet to hear it. Young forwards playing at the level he is now that still have skills in the process of development (in his case, a mid-range jumper) are not typically brushed off as Sully is by some members of this board. Again, he's not Kevin Love. But saying he could become a Zach Randolph-type isn't exactly unrealistic from my point of view.

I think I agree with the people who compare him to Paul Millsap, even though he's a much better rebounder and passer.  Is that disappointing?  Yeah, a little, as I was hoping that he'd turn into a Boozer/David West type, but he almost never plays inside so how would we know if he's improved his post moves lol?  Still, like you said, he's only 22, and, quite honestly, he's putting up 15/9/3 with few plays being called for him, so take from that what you will.  I'd just like to see how he plays when he isn't forced to play as a center.  Even if Hassan Whiteside was playing next to him, at least Sully would be able to play his true position of power forward, but we'll see.

I dunno... Paul Millsap with better passing and rebounding skills sounds pretty good to me  ;D

I mean I guess.  I was just selfishly hoping for more, like everyone else is/was.  Sigh.  Like you said, though, he's still only 22.  I just want to see him in the post instead of on the perimeter, because he's probably the only guy (other than Jeff Green at times) who can draw a double team, but I guess that that's not how Stevens plays the game.  Sigh.

Well, after the last couple of games, Sully has increased the percentage of his shots within 3 feet of the post to 33.6%.  That's up from earlier in the season (and definitely up from last season).  So the trend is good.

Ironically, that's the same percentage of such at rim shots as Millsap at the moment -- though Sully is finishing his at a much higher rate (73.2% compared to 64.6% for Millsap).
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Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #58 on: November 19, 2014, 03:52:13 PM »

Offline TheFlex

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Also: 30 mins/9 games = 3 1/3 mpg. 30 + 3 1/3 = 33 1/3. It's a relevant observation considering that said 3 1/3 mins is more than 50% of the differential between the projected 36 mins and Sully's actual 30 mpg.
The problem is Sullinger was also on the court for 22 of those 30 minutes, so in the end he may or may not be using a minute a game or so...

Haha, if you cannot, or refuse to (the latter being my guess since you're a smart fella) understand why it's more valid to salivate at the per 36 numbers of a player providing actual data in 83% of the desired 36 minutes than to salivate at the per 36 numbers of a player providing actual data in 39% of the desired 36 minutes, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.
Fine, I'm exaggerating to make a point. But I still don't think the whole limited minutes narrative strengthens Sullinger's hypothetical ASG bid in any way.

Don't think it strengthens his ASG bid this year but it is promising for those of us who believe the per 36 numbers can come true in the future if he continues to work on his game.

This is really nitpicking and since we've come to a settlement, rather unnecessary, but even if Sully is on the floor for 22 of those 30 minutes he is still keeping Olynyk/Zeller on the bench and in turn Sully must be benched earlier -- or later -- on in order to make up for their lost minutes. Correct me if I'm wrong in using that line of thinking.


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Re: Sullinger playing like a borderline All-Star
« Reply #59 on: November 19, 2014, 04:23:31 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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This is really nitpicking and since we've come to a settlement, rather unnecessary, but even if Sully is on the floor for 22 of those 30 minutes he is still keeping Olynyk/Zeller on the bench and in turn Sully must be benched earlier -- or later -- on in order to make up for their lost minutes. Correct me if I'm wrong in using that line of thinking.
Well, I don't believe in minute quotas, so in my mind if Sullinger had established himself as the clearly superior option, he'd get all the minutes he could handle.
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