Author Topic: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype  (Read 45547 times)

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Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #90 on: November 21, 2014, 01:09:25 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Sigh.  That's not what I'm saying at all and you know you it.  Yes, I acknowledge that there is some uncertainty in drafting players, but it seems like everyone today doesn't want to take the time to develop these guys - they just want an in-their-prime superstar now, now, now, and, with a few exceptions, that's just not how things work.  You make it sound like drafting players is like playing a slot machine at a casino, where, odds are, you'll never win anything because the game is completely rigged, and only a miracle would ever yield even a serviceable player, and what I'm saying is that, if you do your homework, the guys you draft shouldn't be out of the league in less than 2 seasons (cough JR Giddens cough cough ;D).  I realize that every draft class is different, but 2013 wasn't nearly as bad as we previously thought - not when you have MCW, GA, Tim Hardaway JR, I'll throw in McLemore because he seems to intrigue a lot of people, Steven Adams, Trey Burke, Oladipo, Noel, KCP, Otto Porter, Plumlee, Dieng, and some guys haven't even gotten a chance to play yet, like CJ McCollum and Shabazz Muhammed, and Shane Larkin is only getting minutes this year with the Knicks.  That's hardly a bad draft, imo.

Maybe gms have too much information nowadays, and so it's become paralysis by over-analysis in some cases, but I really have no idea.

I did get little snarky which wasn't necessary but to continue the discussion I will take your example of Giddens.  If I recall, he was the 30th pick in 2008.  When picking at 30, you probably have a 1 in 10 chance of picking a player that will stay in the league.  You can say that Giddens turned out to be a "bad pick" but I don't think you can expect a GM to do much better at that point in the draft.  Every once in a while, you can get lucky but I do not fault Danny for picking Giddens any more than I fault Phi for picking Petteri Koponen in 2007 or Cle for picking Christian Eyenga in 2009 or Lazar Hayward in 2010 but you have to hand it to Chi as they got Jimmy Butler in 2011.

It is a crap shoot, even in the top 5 picks, by #30, you have to be extremely lucky to get a player that is going to make a difference.
Since 2000, the last pick in the first round (which was Giddens but some years was pick 28 or 29) have been the following, oldest first

Mark Madsen
Tony Parker
Dan Dickau
Josh Howard
David Harrison
David Lee (this where pick #30 started to be the last pick in the first round)
Joel Freeland
Petteri Koponen
JR Giddens
Christian Eyenga
Lazar Hayward
Jimmy Butler
Festus Ezeli
Nemenja Nedovic
Kyle Anderson

Thus it seems to be that pick at least in the last 15 years has had almost as good a chance to become an all starish type player (Parker, Howard, Lee and Butler) as it does to barely play or not come to the league at all like Koponen (clear busts - Harrison, Giddens, Eyenga, Hayward).  Still too early on Ezeli, Nedovic, and Anderson.


I think you're overstating things because you've just happened to pick a small sample with some better-than-average picks in that range.

Go here:

http://www.draftexpress.com/NBA-draft-pick-stats/27/PER/

Click through the whole range 20-30 and you'll see the big picture from a much larger sample. Few players in that range become starters, much less stars, and many are out after a couple of years at the end of the bench.

(Also you are losing me with "Allstar-ish" as applied to Jimmy Butler...)
Butler has improved each season and currently in his fourth season and is averaging 21.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 3.6 apg shooting 52.1% and playing very strong defense. 

only about 1/3 of all players start any given game.  So by nature you are always going to find less starters than non-starters when you take a huge range of picks like that.  I merely pointed out that there are plenty of all star level players taken with the last pick in the draft.  Just like there are plenty of complete busts taken with that pick.  The problem I have in particular with the selection of Giddens, is there were a number of players taken within in the first 7 picks of the 2nd round you have some great players and in particular I and a number of posters on this board wanted Boston to select Deandre Jordan as we felt he was the perfect high reward type player (and for a team coming off a championship you can risk the bust there).  In retrospect we were correct, but also would have been fine with Nikola Pekovic, Omer Asik, Mario Chalmers, or Mbah a Moute.  A lot of people wanted Chris Douglas Roberts that draft and while he wasn't a great player, he did play nearly 5 times the games that Giddens did.  Goran Dragic was also in that 2nd round.

To be clear, I'm not arguing about Giddens - I did a detailed analysis of Ainge's drafting a while back and Giddens is one of the WORST first round picks ever.

But, Pekovic and Asik weren't options due to buyout issues. Not sure about Dragic. We have to remember that when evaluating Danny's late first round picks (as well as his alleged distaste for Euros).

And more generally saying there are "plenty of All-Star level players taken" is an empty statement, because over time you will have "plenty" of every type of player. The more careful thing to say is the probabilistic statement: by my examination there have been 13 players drafted 20-30 since 1990 who've made one or more All-Star teams. That's a little more than 5%.

In contrast there have been around 75 guys who ended up with less than two full seasons (<160GP) in the NBA. That's around one-third of all players drafted in that range.

So I think the right statement would be something along the lines of "you're 6 times more likely to draft a guy who's out in two years than an All-Star."

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #91 on: November 21, 2014, 01:26:21 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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Sigh.  That's not what I'm saying at all and you know you it.  Yes, I acknowledge that there is some uncertainty in drafting players, but it seems like everyone today doesn't want to take the time to develop these guys - they just want an in-their-prime superstar now, now, now, and, with a few exceptions, that's just not how things work.  You make it sound like drafting players is like playing a slot machine at a casino, where, odds are, you'll never win anything because the game is completely rigged, and only a miracle would ever yield even a serviceable player, and what I'm saying is that, if you do your homework, the guys you draft shouldn't be out of the league in less than 2 seasons (cough JR Giddens cough cough ;D).  I realize that every draft class is different, but 2013 wasn't nearly as bad as we previously thought - not when you have MCW, GA, Tim Hardaway JR, I'll throw in McLemore because he seems to intrigue a lot of people, Steven Adams, Trey Burke, Oladipo, Noel, KCP, Otto Porter, Plumlee, Dieng, and some guys haven't even gotten a chance to play yet, like CJ McCollum and Shabazz Muhammed, and Shane Larkin is only getting minutes this year with the Knicks.  That's hardly a bad draft, imo.

Maybe gms have too much information nowadays, and so it's become paralysis by over-analysis in some cases, but I really have no idea.

I did get little snarky which wasn't necessary but to continue the discussion I will take your example of Giddens.  If I recall, he was the 30th pick in 2008.  When picking at 30, you probably have a 1 in 10 chance of picking a player that will stay in the league.  You can say that Giddens turned out to be a "bad pick" but I don't think you can expect a GM to do much better at that point in the draft.  Every once in a while, you can get lucky but I do not fault Danny for picking Giddens any more than I fault Phi for picking Petteri Koponen in 2007 or Cle for picking Christian Eyenga in 2009 or Lazar Hayward in 2010 but you have to hand it to Chi as they got Jimmy Butler in 2011.

It is a crap shoot, even in the top 5 picks, by #30, you have to be extremely lucky to get a player that is going to make a difference.
Since 2000, the last pick in the first round (which was Giddens but some years was pick 28 or 29) have been the following, oldest first

Mark Madsen
Tony Parker
Dan Dickau
Josh Howard
David Harrison
David Lee (this where pick #30 started to be the last pick in the first round)
Joel Freeland
Petteri Koponen
JR Giddens
Christian Eyenga
Lazar Hayward
Jimmy Butler
Festus Ezeli
Nemenja Nedovic
Kyle Anderson

Thus it seems to be that pick at least in the last 15 years has had almost as good a chance to become an all starish type player (Parker, Howard, Lee and Butler) as it does to barely play or not come to the league at all like Koponen (clear busts - Harrison, Giddens, Eyenga, Hayward).  Still too early on Ezeli, Nedovic, and Anderson.


I think you're overstating things because you've just happened to pick a small sample with some better-than-average picks in that range.

Go here:

http://www.draftexpress.com/NBA-draft-pick-stats/27/PER/

Click through the whole range 20-30 and you'll see the big picture from a much larger sample. Few players in that range become starters, much less stars, and many are out after a couple of years at the end of the bench.

(Also you are losing me with "Allstar-ish" as applied to Jimmy Butler...)
Butler has improved each season and currently in his fourth season and is averaging 21.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 3.6 apg shooting 52.1% and playing very strong defense. 

only about 1/3 of all players start any given game.  So by nature you are always going to find less starters than non-starters when you take a huge range of picks like that.  I merely pointed out that there are plenty of all star level players taken with the last pick in the draft.  Just like there are plenty of complete busts taken with that pick.  The problem I have in particular with the selection of Giddens, is there were a number of players taken within in the first 7 picks of the 2nd round you have some great players and in particular I and a number of posters on this board wanted Boston to select Deandre Jordan as we felt he was the perfect high reward type player (and for a team coming off a championship you can risk the bust there).  In retrospect we were correct, but also would have been fine with Nikola Pekovic, Omer Asik, Mario Chalmers, or Mbah a Moute.  A lot of people wanted Chris Douglas Roberts that draft and while he wasn't a great player, he did play nearly 5 times the games that Giddens did.  Goran Dragic was also in that 2nd round.

To be clear, I'm not arguing about Giddens - I did a detailed analysis of Ainge's drafting a while back and Giddens is one of the WORST first round picks ever.

But, Pekovic and Asik weren't options due to buyout issues. Not sure about Dragic. We have to remember that when evaluating Danny's late first round picks (as well as his alleged distaste for Euros).

And more generally saying there are "plenty of All-Star level players taken" is an empty statement, because over time you will have "plenty" of every type of player. The more careful thing to say is the probabilistic statement: by my examination there have been 13 players drafted 20-30 since 1990 who've made one or more All-Star teams. That's a little more than 5%.

In contrast there have been around 75 guys who ended up with less than two full seasons (<160GP) in the NBA. That's around one-third of all players drafted in that range.

So I think the right statement would be something along the lines of "you're 6 times more likely to draft a guy who's out in two years than an All-Star."
boris, great points and a tp for all the homework. would you be able to link to your earlier analysis? since debates on this topic seem to resurface regularly, it might be useful to bring that data into the discussion now.

thanks.


p.s. mods, this thread is undergone a serious hijack. perhaps you might wish to break out the discussion on draft position into its own thread?
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Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #92 on: November 21, 2014, 01:50:05 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Here's my analysis of "Danny doesn't like foreigners":

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=73940.msg1750079#msg1750079

And my analysis (one of many) on Danny's drafting:

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=65996.msg1502948#msg1502948

And just for fun my specific analysis of why Fab and Giddens are two of the worst picks...EVER.

Quote
Melo is out of the league after playing a total of 36 minutes of NBA ball. Giddens played a total of 247 minutes.

In the last ten drafts leading up to 2012, setting aside a few guys who never played due to injury, and a couple of guys who stayed in Europe, 5 players (out of 300 total) taken in the top 30 have played fewer than 247 minutes in their careers (Craig Brackins, Julius Hodge, Ndubi Ebi, Troy Bell and the immortal Pavel Podkolzin).

Exactly ONE has played fewer than Fab's 36 minutes - Pavel.

(JJJ is pretty close to making the list, with 289 - another "ouch.")

There are other metrics of course but I think by any standard Melo and Giddens are two of the worst 5-10 picks (out of 300) in the last decade of the first round. Melo has a strong case for being the worst, along with Podkolzin.

You can go take a look here.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2012.html
 

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #93 on: November 21, 2014, 03:42:19 PM »

Offline Jonny CC

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He's a 6'11" SHOOTING GUARD which is the definition of a "physical freak".

Wait Ryan Anderson is a physical freak?

Are you trying to say that Ryan Anderson is a shooting guard?  I would love to see him try to cover Giannis, Bradley, etc.

That's the joke -- if Anderson was 6'5"-6'7", he'd be a shooting guard, because he plays like one

Sorry...missed it
Bottom line from my perspective is that Giannis has the potential to be a pretty nasty player. 
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Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #94 on: November 21, 2014, 04:13:29 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Sigh.  That's not what I'm saying at all and you know you it.  Yes, I acknowledge that there is some uncertainty in drafting players, but it seems like everyone today doesn't want to take the time to develop these guys - they just want an in-their-prime superstar now, now, now, and, with a few exceptions, that's just not how things work.  You make it sound like drafting players is like playing a slot machine at a casino, where, odds are, you'll never win anything because the game is completely rigged, and only a miracle would ever yield even a serviceable player, and what I'm saying is that, if you do your homework, the guys you draft shouldn't be out of the league in less than 2 seasons (cough JR Giddens cough cough ;D).  I realize that every draft class is different, but 2013 wasn't nearly as bad as we previously thought - not when you have MCW, GA, Tim Hardaway JR, I'll throw in McLemore because he seems to intrigue a lot of people, Steven Adams, Trey Burke, Oladipo, Noel, KCP, Otto Porter, Plumlee, Dieng, and some guys haven't even gotten a chance to play yet, like CJ McCollum and Shabazz Muhammed, and Shane Larkin is only getting minutes this year with the Knicks.  That's hardly a bad draft, imo.

Maybe gms have too much information nowadays, and so it's become paralysis by over-analysis in some cases, but I really have no idea.

I did get little snarky which wasn't necessary but to continue the discussion I will take your example of Giddens.  If I recall, he was the 30th pick in 2008.  When picking at 30, you probably have a 1 in 10 chance of picking a player that will stay in the league.  You can say that Giddens turned out to be a "bad pick" but I don't think you can expect a GM to do much better at that point in the draft.  Every once in a while, you can get lucky but I do not fault Danny for picking Giddens any more than I fault Phi for picking Petteri Koponen in 2007 or Cle for picking Christian Eyenga in 2009 or Lazar Hayward in 2010 but you have to hand it to Chi as they got Jimmy Butler in 2011.

It is a crap shoot, even in the top 5 picks, by #30, you have to be extremely lucky to get a player that is going to make a difference.

This is very true.  In fact, the odds start to tilt pretty heavily against getting a helpful, rotation player at around #15 and by the time you are in the 20s, it is, as you say, a crap shoot.

Past #20, the odds are over 50% that the player will never be more than a deep bench player and he may not play in the league ever.  By the time you get to #30, basically 2/3 of picks turn out to be no more than deep bench, busts or never play in the league.

I'm not dismissing your assertions, but do you have a link to a site or something that can support your claims?
maybe a year ago a similar debate took place at cb. of the players taken in the most unfavorable 25% of the draft slots, 53% were either out of the nba or marginal players. only 18% were stars or solid starters according to this article:

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Predicting-NBA-Draft-Success-and-Failure-through-Historical-Trends-1362/

basically, if a GM can draft a player from slot 22 on and the player stays in the league, it is above average drafting.

also interesting reading is this:

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

Another very useful analysis is here:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

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Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #95 on: November 21, 2014, 05:16:48 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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Quote

There are other metrics of course but I think by any standard Melo and Giddens are two of the worst 5-10 picks (out of 300) in the last decade of the first round. Melo has a strong case for being the worst, along with Podkolzin.

You can go take a look here.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2012.html
 

There is no doubt that Fab Melo is the worst DA pick ever, you don't need any stats to see  that, just watch him play.  I don't think I ever saw Podkolzin play so maybe he was worse, I don't know.  Hard to believe he could be worse than Melo.

But I want to nit-pic a little regarding Giddens.  So if Giddens is the 10th worst pick in the first round in the last 10 years (which I am not disputing), isn't that statistically exactly where he should be?  If you assume that each of the 10 30th picks are the worst pick each year, then why would you have the expectation that the 30th pick would be any higher than 10th worst in a decade.  The bottom 10 for the decade would be expected to be those 10 30th picks.  Giddens was a 30th pick so if he was above 10th worst, that would mean he jumped over at least one 29th pick and of course Melo.

Giddens failed to fulfill even his modest potential, that is true but my point is that most picks fail to fulfill their full potential.  Giddens was not a total disaster like Melo or even Thabeet who was taken, what, 3rd?  Giddens could play right on the fringe of the NBA level.  Melo's play was on the fringe of the D-League.  Ending up with a guy like Giddens with the 30th pick is just the way it is going to go sometimes.

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #96 on: November 21, 2014, 06:01:14 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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I think trying to 'rank' bust picks as somehow worse than others is a bit dubious.

Any player who ends up simply busting out and not getting minutes doesn't really provide enough sample size to truly say, "This guy is better/worse than this other guy."

And there are a lot of factors that contribute to just how tiny of a look a player gets before being dropped.   Late picks coming in to a strong, contending team, are probably less likely to get a significant look-see than late picks coming in to a crappy team.   Some really awful NBA teams may give a whole season of rotation minutes to a player who would not stand a chance of making roster on any other team.  (We know what kind of teams I am talking about…)   Sometimes it is not who the player is, but what team picked him.

Things are also changing somewhat with the increased use of the D-League, with the much better rules for sending players there and back.  As well as the increased use of Euro leagues for stashing late pick players.

I think you may see more  late pick players get even _less_ of a look at the NBA level since they can now be vetted more at the D-League before the team gives up on them.

I think Boston is ahead of a lot of teams with using the D-League this way and Fab is an example of that.  In an earlier era, he probably would have been give more than 36 minutes in the NBA.   He probably still would be a bust, but they would have wanted to make sure before giving up on him.

So, while it's easy (and imho, accurate) to say, "Fab was definitely a bust.", I don't know if we can truly say he was more of a bust than say, Royce White, #16 from the same draft who played only 9 minutes, or Jared Cunningham, #24 who played only 139.

LOL - Giddens made it to 247 minutes of NBA playing time in his career.  Is he really a bigger bust than #8 pick Joe Alexander who managed to play 745?  Or #20 Alexis Ajinca?

And so on.  They are all busts.   To me, a big difference may just be in how fast the team that drafted them was able to recognize and accept that they were busts and move on.
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Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #97 on: November 21, 2014, 06:12:16 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Quote

There are other metrics of course but I think by any standard Melo and Giddens are two of the worst 5-10 picks (out of 300) in the last decade of the first round. Melo has a strong case for being the worst, along with Podkolzin.

You can go take a look here.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2012.html
 

There is no doubt that Fab Melo is the worst DA pick ever, you don't need any stats to see  that, just watch him play.  I don't think I ever saw Podkolzin play so maybe he was worse, I don't know.  Hard to believe he could be worse than Melo.

But I want to nit-pic a little regarding Giddens.  So if Giddens is the 10th worst pick in the first round in the last 10 years (which I am not disputing), isn't that statistically exactly where he should be?  If you assume that each of the 10 30th picks are the worst pick each year, then why would you have the expectation that the 30th pick would be any higher than 10th worst in a decade.  The bottom 10 for the decade would be expected to be those 10 30th picks.  Giddens was a 30th pick so if he was above 10th worst, that would mean he jumped over at least one 29th pick and of course Melo.

Giddens failed to fulfill even his modest potential, that is true but my point is that most picks fail to fulfill their full potential.  Giddens was not a total disaster like Melo or even Thabeet who was taken, what, 3rd?  Giddens could play right on the fringe of the NBA level.  Melo's play was on the fringe of the D-League.  Ending up with a guy like Giddens with the 30th pick is just the way it is going to go sometimes.

Haha, good point. Giddens was garden-variety bad and Melo was on another level.

Your point highlights that asking whether someone's in the bottom 5-10 out of 300 doesn't tell you the right thing about a 30th pick...as you said it's where he's expected to be. But nor does it reveal whether he came in below expectations, because you just *can't* be worse than the bottom 5-10 out of 300.

What I probably should have done is compare Giddens to the guys taken after him. Of the non-Euros picked after Giddens, 11 out of the next 13 had better outcomes. Four of those guys (Chalmers, DeAndre Jordan, Mbah a Moute and CDR) count as big misses.

Coming back to Melo...I think the ultimate "bust test" for a first rounder is getting waived before your rookie contract is up. That happened with Fab. I can't think of any other examples...anyone?

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #98 on: November 21, 2014, 06:22:16 PM »

Offline Nerf DPOY

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Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #99 on: November 21, 2014, 06:22:26 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Quote

There are other metrics of course but I think by any standard Melo and Giddens are two of the worst 5-10 picks (out of 300) in the last decade of the first round. Melo has a strong case for being the worst, along with Podkolzin.

You can go take a look here.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2012.html
 

There is no doubt that Fab Melo is the worst DA pick ever, you don't need any stats to see  that, just watch him play.  I don't think I ever saw Podkolzin play so maybe he was worse, I don't know.  Hard to believe he could be worse than Melo.

But I want to nit-pic a little regarding Giddens.  So if Giddens is the 10th worst pick in the first round in the last 10 years (which I am not disputing), isn't that statistically exactly where he should be?  If you assume that each of the 10 30th picks are the worst pick each year, then why would you have the expectation that the 30th pick would be any higher than 10th worst in a decade.  The bottom 10 for the decade would be expected to be those 10 30th picks.  Giddens was a 30th pick so if he was above 10th worst, that would mean he jumped over at least one 29th pick and of course Melo.

Giddens failed to fulfill even his modest potential, that is true but my point is that most picks fail to fulfill their full potential.  Giddens was not a total disaster like Melo or even Thabeet who was taken, what, 3rd?  Giddens could play right on the fringe of the NBA level.  Melo's play was on the fringe of the D-League.  Ending up with a guy like Giddens with the 30th pick is just the way it is going to go sometimes.

Haha, good point. Giddens was garden-variety bad and Melo was on another level.

Your point highlights that asking whether someone's in the bottom 5-10 out of 300 doesn't tell you the right thing about a 30th pick...as you said it's where he's expected to be. But nor does it reveal whether he came in below expectations, because you just *can't* be worse than the bottom 5-10 out of 300.

What I probably should have done is compare Giddens to the guys taken after him. Of the non-Euros picked after Giddens, 11 out of the next 13 had better outcomes. Four of those guys (Chalmers, DeAndre Jordan, Mbah a Moute and CDR) count as big misses.

Coming back to Melo...I think the ultimate "bust test" for a first rounder is getting waived before your rookie contract is up. That happened with Fab. I can't think of any other examples...anyone?

How about. TRIPLE J.  ?

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #100 on: November 21, 2014, 06:44:45 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Quote

There are other metrics of course but I think by any standard Melo and Giddens are two of the worst 5-10 picks (out of 300) in the last decade of the first round. Melo has a strong case for being the worst, along with Podkolzin.

You can go take a look here.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2012.html
 

There is no doubt that Fab Melo is the worst DA pick ever, you don't need any stats to see  that, just watch him play.  I don't think I ever saw Podkolzin play so maybe he was worse, I don't know.  Hard to believe he could be worse than Melo.

But I want to nit-pic a little regarding Giddens.  So if Giddens is the 10th worst pick in the first round in the last 10 years (which I am not disputing), isn't that statistically exactly where he should be?  If you assume that each of the 10 30th picks are the worst pick each year, then why would you have the expectation that the 30th pick would be any higher than 10th worst in a decade.  The bottom 10 for the decade would be expected to be those 10 30th picks.  Giddens was a 30th pick so if he was above 10th worst, that would mean he jumped over at least one 29th pick and of course Melo.

Giddens failed to fulfill even his modest potential, that is true but my point is that most picks fail to fulfill their full potential.  Giddens was not a total disaster like Melo or even Thabeet who was taken, what, 3rd?  Giddens could play right on the fringe of the NBA level.  Melo's play was on the fringe of the D-League.  Ending up with a guy like Giddens with the 30th pick is just the way it is going to go sometimes.

Haha, good point. Giddens was garden-variety bad and Melo was on another level.

Your point highlights that asking whether someone's in the bottom 5-10 out of 300 doesn't tell you the right thing about a 30th pick...as you said it's where he's expected to be. But nor does it reveal whether he came in below expectations, because you just *can't* be worse than the bottom 5-10 out of 300.

What I probably should have done is compare Giddens to the guys taken after him. Of the non-Euros picked after Giddens, 11 out of the next 13 had better outcomes. Four of those guys (Chalmers, DeAndre Jordan, Mbah a Moute and CDR) count as big misses.

Coming back to Melo...I think the ultimate "bust test" for a first rounder is getting waived before your rookie contract is up. That happened with Fab. I can't think of any other examples...anyone?

How about. TRIPLE J.  ?

You're right. TP.

http://php.jconline.com/blogs/jeff/houston-rockets-waive-jajuan-johnson/

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #101 on: November 21, 2014, 07:16:19 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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Wasn't Gerald Green waived on his rookie deal?  It was Year 3 for sure.  He's recovered pretty nicely from his bust status though.

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #102 on: November 23, 2014, 01:48:49 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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Just a Giannis update - he had 20 points tonight on 6/11 from the floor and 8/8 from the line to go with 4 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 steals in 36 minutes.  Awesome.  Our captain was his vintage self, as well, scoring 25 points on 8/16 from the floor, 4/5 from deep, and 5-7 from the line, and he also contributed 10 rebounds and 2 assists in only 28 minutes.  Awesome.  Of course, he also fouled out, but who cares?  Someone tell Kobe that that's how you continue to remain so effective at this stage of your career ;D, even though Pierce is off to a horrible shooting start this year, but it looks like he's rounded into form over the past 5.  Sigh.  We miss you.  We love you.  Come home :'(.

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #103 on: November 25, 2014, 10:29:15 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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That was probably GA's worst game of his career to date, tonight.  1-13 with 4 fouls?  Ouch.

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #104 on: November 25, 2014, 10:42:24 PM »

Offline MBunge

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That was probably GA's worst game of his career to date, tonight.  1-13 with 4 fouls?  Ouch.

But he'll take little heat for it because his teammates were good enough to win in spite of his poor game.

Mike