Author Topic: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype  (Read 45613 times)

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Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #75 on: November 20, 2014, 02:30:46 PM »

Offline Jonny CC

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He's a 6'11" SHOOTING GUARD which is the definition of a "physical freak".
He's not a shooting guard.

He plays at SG and he played some PG in the preseason.
Before a game on Christmas against the Pacers, Bird told Chuck Person that he had a present for him. During the game, Bird shot a 3-pointer in front of Person. Immediately after releasing the ball, Bird said to Person, "Merry F!#*ing Christmas!" and then the shot went in.

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #76 on: November 20, 2014, 02:32:46 PM »

Offline Jonny CC

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He's a 6'11" SHOOTING GUARD which is the definition of a "physical freak".

Wait Ryan Anderson is a physical freak?

Are you trying to say that Ryan Anderson is a shooting guard?  I would love to see him try to cover Giannis, Bradley, etc.
Before a game on Christmas against the Pacers, Bird told Chuck Person that he had a present for him. During the game, Bird shot a 3-pointer in front of Person. Immediately after releasing the ball, Bird said to Person, "Merry F!#*ing Christmas!" and then the shot went in.

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #77 on: November 20, 2014, 02:55:15 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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2013 wasn't nearly as bad as we previously thought - not when you have MCW, GA, Tim Hardaway JR, I'll throw in McLemore because he seems to intrigue a lot of people, Steven Adams, Trey Burke, Oladipo, Noel, KCP, Otto Porter, Plumlee, Dieng, and some guys haven't even gotten a chance to play yet, like CJ McCollum and Shabazz Muhammed, and Shane Larkin is only getting minutes this year with the Knicks.  That's hardly a bad draft, imo.

That looks about as bad as people projected to me?
me too.

no one to get excited about even though KO wasn't listed.  no one jumps out as an all-star-level talent.  some rotation guys.  even though MCW was ROY, he would be a backup PG on a lot of teams.

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #78 on: November 20, 2014, 03:00:33 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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2013 wasn't nearly as bad as we previously thought - not when you have MCW, GA, Tim Hardaway JR, I'll throw in McLemore because he seems to intrigue a lot of people, Steven Adams, Trey Burke, Oladipo, Noel, KCP, Otto Porter, Plumlee, Dieng, and some guys haven't even gotten a chance to play yet, like CJ McCollum and Shabazz Muhammed, and Shane Larkin is only getting minutes this year with the Knicks.  That's hardly a bad draft, imo.

That looks about as bad as people projected to me?
me too.

no one to get excited about even though KO wasn't listed.  no one jumps out as an all-star-level talent.  some rotation guys.  even though MCW was ROY, he would be a backup PG on a lot of teams.

Agreed.  2011 is the draft that looks like it was underrated in hindsight.  Though oddly 11-20 was arguably better than 1-10.

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #79 on: November 20, 2014, 03:17:02 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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He's a 6'11" SHOOTING GUARD which is the definition of a "physical freak".

Wait Ryan Anderson is a physical freak?

Are you trying to say that Ryan Anderson is a shooting guard?  I would love to see him try to cover Giannis, Bradley, etc.

That's the joke -- if Anderson was 6'5"-6'7", he'd be a shooting guard, because he plays like one
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #80 on: November 20, 2014, 03:49:08 PM »

Offline ronaldo943

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He's a 6'11" SHOOTING GUARD which is the definition of a "physical freak".

Wait Ryan Anderson is a physical freak?

Are you trying to say that Ryan Anderson is a shooting guard?  I would love to see him try to cover Giannis, Bradley, etc.

That's the joke -- if Anderson was 6'5"-6'7", he'd be a shooting guard, because he plays like one

It wasnt funny. :(

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #81 on: November 20, 2014, 05:13:38 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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Sigh.  That's not what I'm saying at all and you know you it.  Yes, I acknowledge that there is some uncertainty in drafting players, but it seems like everyone today doesn't want to take the time to develop these guys - they just want an in-their-prime superstar now, now, now, and, with a few exceptions, that's just not how things work.  You make it sound like drafting players is like playing a slot machine at a casino, where, odds are, you'll never win anything because the game is completely rigged, and only a miracle would ever yield even a serviceable player, and what I'm saying is that, if you do your homework, the guys you draft shouldn't be out of the league in less than 2 seasons (cough JR Giddens cough cough ;D).  I realize that every draft class is different, but 2013 wasn't nearly as bad as we previously thought - not when you have MCW, GA, Tim Hardaway JR, I'll throw in McLemore because he seems to intrigue a lot of people, Steven Adams, Trey Burke, Oladipo, Noel, KCP, Otto Porter, Plumlee, Dieng, and some guys haven't even gotten a chance to play yet, like CJ McCollum and Shabazz Muhammed, and Shane Larkin is only getting minutes this year with the Knicks.  That's hardly a bad draft, imo.

Maybe gms have too much information nowadays, and so it's become paralysis by over-analysis in some cases, but I really have no idea.

I did get little snarky which wasn't necessary but to continue the discussion I will take your example of Giddens.  If I recall, he was the 30th pick in 2008.  When picking at 30, you probably have a 1 in 10 chance of picking a player that will stay in the league.  You can say that Giddens turned out to be a "bad pick" but I don't think you can expect a GM to do much better at that point in the draft.  Every once in a while, you can get lucky but I do not fault Danny for picking Giddens any more than I fault Phi for picking Petteri Koponen in 2007 or Cle for picking Christian Eyenga in 2009 or Lazar Hayward in 2010 but you have to hand it to Chi as they got Jimmy Butler in 2011.

It is a crap shoot, even in the top 5 picks, by #30, you have to be extremely lucky to get a player that is going to make a difference.

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #82 on: November 20, 2014, 06:43:50 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Sigh.  That's not what I'm saying at all and you know you it.  Yes, I acknowledge that there is some uncertainty in drafting players, but it seems like everyone today doesn't want to take the time to develop these guys - they just want an in-their-prime superstar now, now, now, and, with a few exceptions, that's just not how things work.  You make it sound like drafting players is like playing a slot machine at a casino, where, odds are, you'll never win anything because the game is completely rigged, and only a miracle would ever yield even a serviceable player, and what I'm saying is that, if you do your homework, the guys you draft shouldn't be out of the league in less than 2 seasons (cough JR Giddens cough cough ;D).  I realize that every draft class is different, but 2013 wasn't nearly as bad as we previously thought - not when you have MCW, GA, Tim Hardaway JR, I'll throw in McLemore because he seems to intrigue a lot of people, Steven Adams, Trey Burke, Oladipo, Noel, KCP, Otto Porter, Plumlee, Dieng, and some guys haven't even gotten a chance to play yet, like CJ McCollum and Shabazz Muhammed, and Shane Larkin is only getting minutes this year with the Knicks.  That's hardly a bad draft, imo.

Maybe gms have too much information nowadays, and so it's become paralysis by over-analysis in some cases, but I really have no idea.

I did get little snarky which wasn't necessary but to continue the discussion I will take your example of Giddens.  If I recall, he was the 30th pick in 2008.  When picking at 30, you probably have a 1 in 10 chance of picking a player that will stay in the league.  You can say that Giddens turned out to be a "bad pick" but I don't think you can expect a GM to do much better at that point in the draft.  Every once in a while, you can get lucky but I do not fault Danny for picking Giddens any more than I fault Phi for picking Petteri Koponen in 2007 or Cle for picking Christian Eyenga in 2009 or Lazar Hayward in 2010 but you have to hand it to Chi as they got Jimmy Butler in 2011.

It is a crap shoot, even in the top 5 picks, by #30, you have to be extremely lucky to get a player that is going to make a difference.

This is very true.  In fact, the odds start to tilt pretty heavily against getting a helpful, rotation player at around #15 and by the time you are in the 20s, it is, as you say, a crap shoot.

Past #20, the odds are over 50% that the player will never be more than a deep bench player and he may not play in the league ever.  By the time you get to #30, basically 2/3 of picks turn out to be no more than deep bench, busts or never play in the league.
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Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #83 on: November 20, 2014, 08:30:01 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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Sigh.  That's not what I'm saying at all and you know you it.  Yes, I acknowledge that there is some uncertainty in drafting players, but it seems like everyone today doesn't want to take the time to develop these guys - they just want an in-their-prime superstar now, now, now, and, with a few exceptions, that's just not how things work.  You make it sound like drafting players is like playing a slot machine at a casino, where, odds are, you'll never win anything because the game is completely rigged, and only a miracle would ever yield even a serviceable player, and what I'm saying is that, if you do your homework, the guys you draft shouldn't be out of the league in less than 2 seasons (cough JR Giddens cough cough ;D).  I realize that every draft class is different, but 2013 wasn't nearly as bad as we previously thought - not when you have MCW, GA, Tim Hardaway JR, I'll throw in McLemore because he seems to intrigue a lot of people, Steven Adams, Trey Burke, Oladipo, Noel, KCP, Otto Porter, Plumlee, Dieng, and some guys haven't even gotten a chance to play yet, like CJ McCollum and Shabazz Muhammed, and Shane Larkin is only getting minutes this year with the Knicks.  That's hardly a bad draft, imo.

Maybe gms have too much information nowadays, and so it's become paralysis by over-analysis in some cases, but I really have no idea.

I did get little snarky which wasn't necessary but to continue the discussion I will take your example of Giddens.  If I recall, he was the 30th pick in 2008.  When picking at 30, you probably have a 1 in 10 chance of picking a player that will stay in the league.  You can say that Giddens turned out to be a "bad pick" but I don't think you can expect a GM to do much better at that point in the draft.  Every once in a while, you can get lucky but I do not fault Danny for picking Giddens any more than I fault Phi for picking Petteri Koponen in 2007 or Cle for picking Christian Eyenga in 2009 or Lazar Hayward in 2010 but you have to hand it to Chi as they got Jimmy Butler in 2011.

It is a crap shoot, even in the top 5 picks, by #30, you have to be extremely lucky to get a player that is going to make a difference.

It's fine, don't worry about it.  As for your figures, are those your personal observations over the years or did you get them from a website that tracks such things?  I agree that a 1 in 10 chance of landing a serviceable player at such a position in the draft is hardly a reason to be optimistic, but guys slide all the time, and all I'm saying is that you shouldn't resign yourself to the fact that we aren't going to get anyone at #30 or whatever just because history isn't in our favor.  Each draft is different - it's not like we're playing blackjack here and our past choices will somehow alter our chances in a coming draft.  Deandre Jordan, Mario Chalmers, Dejuan Blair, Lance Stephenson, and Chandler Parsons all slipped to the second round in recent years, and Wesley Matthews, Henry Sims, and Anthony Morrow went undrafted, so it's not impossible to find impact players in the later positions in the draft.  I know that sometimes there isn't anyone left, but that's also rare.  The bottom line, though, is that I don't agree that the draft is a crap shoot, so I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on that one haha :).   

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #84 on: November 20, 2014, 08:31:19 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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Sigh.  That's not what I'm saying at all and you know you it.  Yes, I acknowledge that there is some uncertainty in drafting players, but it seems like everyone today doesn't want to take the time to develop these guys - they just want an in-their-prime superstar now, now, now, and, with a few exceptions, that's just not how things work.  You make it sound like drafting players is like playing a slot machine at a casino, where, odds are, you'll never win anything because the game is completely rigged, and only a miracle would ever yield even a serviceable player, and what I'm saying is that, if you do your homework, the guys you draft shouldn't be out of the league in less than 2 seasons (cough JR Giddens cough cough ;D).  I realize that every draft class is different, but 2013 wasn't nearly as bad as we previously thought - not when you have MCW, GA, Tim Hardaway JR, I'll throw in McLemore because he seems to intrigue a lot of people, Steven Adams, Trey Burke, Oladipo, Noel, KCP, Otto Porter, Plumlee, Dieng, and some guys haven't even gotten a chance to play yet, like CJ McCollum and Shabazz Muhammed, and Shane Larkin is only getting minutes this year with the Knicks.  That's hardly a bad draft, imo.

Maybe gms have too much information nowadays, and so it's become paralysis by over-analysis in some cases, but I really have no idea.

I did get little snarky which wasn't necessary but to continue the discussion I will take your example of Giddens.  If I recall, he was the 30th pick in 2008.  When picking at 30, you probably have a 1 in 10 chance of picking a player that will stay in the league.  You can say that Giddens turned out to be a "bad pick" but I don't think you can expect a GM to do much better at that point in the draft.  Every once in a while, you can get lucky but I do not fault Danny for picking Giddens any more than I fault Phi for picking Petteri Koponen in 2007 or Cle for picking Christian Eyenga in 2009 or Lazar Hayward in 2010 but you have to hand it to Chi as they got Jimmy Butler in 2011.

It is a crap shoot, even in the top 5 picks, by #30, you have to be extremely lucky to get a player that is going to make a difference.

This is very true.  In fact, the odds start to tilt pretty heavily against getting a helpful, rotation player at around #15 and by the time you are in the 20s, it is, as you say, a crap shoot.

Past #20, the odds are over 50% that the player will never be more than a deep bench player and he may not play in the league ever.  By the time you get to #30, basically 2/3 of picks turn out to be no more than deep bench, busts or never play in the league.

I'm not dismissing your assertions, but do you have a link to a site or something that can support your claims?

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #85 on: November 20, 2014, 08:42:40 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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Sigh.  That's not what I'm saying at all and you know you it.  Yes, I acknowledge that there is some uncertainty in drafting players, but it seems like everyone today doesn't want to take the time to develop these guys - they just want an in-their-prime superstar now, now, now, and, with a few exceptions, that's just not how things work.  You make it sound like drafting players is like playing a slot machine at a casino, where, odds are, you'll never win anything because the game is completely rigged, and only a miracle would ever yield even a serviceable player, and what I'm saying is that, if you do your homework, the guys you draft shouldn't be out of the league in less than 2 seasons (cough JR Giddens cough cough ;D).  I realize that every draft class is different, but 2013 wasn't nearly as bad as we previously thought - not when you have MCW, GA, Tim Hardaway JR, I'll throw in McLemore because he seems to intrigue a lot of people, Steven Adams, Trey Burke, Oladipo, Noel, KCP, Otto Porter, Plumlee, Dieng, and some guys haven't even gotten a chance to play yet, like CJ McCollum and Shabazz Muhammed, and Shane Larkin is only getting minutes this year with the Knicks.  That's hardly a bad draft, imo.

Maybe gms have too much information nowadays, and so it's become paralysis by over-analysis in some cases, but I really have no idea.

I did get little snarky which wasn't necessary but to continue the discussion I will take your example of Giddens.  If I recall, he was the 30th pick in 2008.  When picking at 30, you probably have a 1 in 10 chance of picking a player that will stay in the league.  You can say that Giddens turned out to be a "bad pick" but I don't think you can expect a GM to do much better at that point in the draft.  Every once in a while, you can get lucky but I do not fault Danny for picking Giddens any more than I fault Phi for picking Petteri Koponen in 2007 or Cle for picking Christian Eyenga in 2009 or Lazar Hayward in 2010 but you have to hand it to Chi as they got Jimmy Butler in 2011.

It is a crap shoot, even in the top 5 picks, by #30, you have to be extremely lucky to get a player that is going to make a difference.

This is very true.  In fact, the odds start to tilt pretty heavily against getting a helpful, rotation player at around #15 and by the time you are in the 20s, it is, as you say, a crap shoot.

Past #20, the odds are over 50% that the player will never be more than a deep bench player and he may not play in the league ever.  By the time you get to #30, basically 2/3 of picks turn out to be no more than deep bench, busts or never play in the league.

I'm not dismissing your assertions, but do you have a link to a site or something that can support your claims?
maybe a year ago a similar debate took place at cb. of the players taken in the most unfavorable 25% of the draft slots, 53% were either out of the nba or marginal players. only 18% were stars or solid starters according to this article:

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Predicting-NBA-Draft-Success-and-Failure-through-Historical-Trends-1362/

basically, if a GM can draft a player from slot 22 on and the player stays in the league, it is above average drafting.

also interesting reading is this:

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm
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Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #86 on: November 21, 2014, 09:05:43 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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And it is not just low picks, here is an analysis from the very best prospects:

Quote
Quote from: Snakehead on September 22, 2014, 01:42:11 PM

From my previous list, players with 3.0 WARP or higher.  Their projection then the actual


1    Anthony Davis    Kentucky        5.5    8.2
21    Jared Sullinger    Ohio St.        3.1    0.9


22    Kenneth Faried    Morehead St.       5.1    6.5
1    Kyrie Irving    Duke       4.2    7.8
2    Derrick Williams    Arizona        3.3    0.9


5    DeMarcus Cousins    Kentucky        4.1    5.4
7    Greg Monroe    Georgetown       3.3    8.3
9    Gordon Hayward    Butler       3.3    2.4
11    Cole Aldrich    Kansas        3.1    0.1


37    DeJuan Blair    Pitt      5.0    2.8
3    James Harden    Arizona State     4.2    7.5
1    Blake Griffin    Oklahoma    4.2    7.6
7    Stephen Curry    Davidson    . 3.9    8.0
5    Ricky Rubio    DKV Joventut    3.7    2.9
45    Nick Calathes    Florida     3.1    -


5    Kevin Love    UCLA    4.6    8.2
2    Michael Beasley    Kansas St.    3.7    0.2


2    Kevin Durant    Texas     3.7    9.4
1    Greg Oden    Ohio St.    3.6    1.2


4    Tyrus Thomas    Louisiana St.     3.6    2.3
47    Paul Millsap    Louisiana Tech    3.2    4.6


I like that company for the most part.

I think what this list confirms is that drafting is a very inexact science.  These are the top rated 20 or so players from the last 7 years.  The best of the best based on rating.  There are at least 7 that are total busts for one reason or another.  That means that even with a top 3 pick, you have a one in three chance of picking a bust, on average.  Those are pretty bad odds for what is at stake with a top 3 draft pick.

I think you have to concede that there is luck or chance involved in drafting.  There is no way to analyze your way to being sure who will be good.  That is why I am glad the Celtics have lots of picks to help improve their odds.  They can take some chances and hope one or two along the way become surprises.

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #87 on: November 21, 2014, 09:29:41 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Sigh.  That's not what I'm saying at all and you know you it.  Yes, I acknowledge that there is some uncertainty in drafting players, but it seems like everyone today doesn't want to take the time to develop these guys - they just want an in-their-prime superstar now, now, now, and, with a few exceptions, that's just not how things work.  You make it sound like drafting players is like playing a slot machine at a casino, where, odds are, you'll never win anything because the game is completely rigged, and only a miracle would ever yield even a serviceable player, and what I'm saying is that, if you do your homework, the guys you draft shouldn't be out of the league in less than 2 seasons (cough JR Giddens cough cough ;D).  I realize that every draft class is different, but 2013 wasn't nearly as bad as we previously thought - not when you have MCW, GA, Tim Hardaway JR, I'll throw in McLemore because he seems to intrigue a lot of people, Steven Adams, Trey Burke, Oladipo, Noel, KCP, Otto Porter, Plumlee, Dieng, and some guys haven't even gotten a chance to play yet, like CJ McCollum and Shabazz Muhammed, and Shane Larkin is only getting minutes this year with the Knicks.  That's hardly a bad draft, imo.

Maybe gms have too much information nowadays, and so it's become paralysis by over-analysis in some cases, but I really have no idea.

I did get little snarky which wasn't necessary but to continue the discussion I will take your example of Giddens.  If I recall, he was the 30th pick in 2008.  When picking at 30, you probably have a 1 in 10 chance of picking a player that will stay in the league.  You can say that Giddens turned out to be a "bad pick" but I don't think you can expect a GM to do much better at that point in the draft.  Every once in a while, you can get lucky but I do not fault Danny for picking Giddens any more than I fault Phi for picking Petteri Koponen in 2007 or Cle for picking Christian Eyenga in 2009 or Lazar Hayward in 2010 but you have to hand it to Chi as they got Jimmy Butler in 2011.

It is a crap shoot, even in the top 5 picks, by #30, you have to be extremely lucky to get a player that is going to make a difference.
Since 2000, the last pick in the first round (which was Giddens but some years was pick 28 or 29) have been the following, oldest first

Mark Madsen
Tony Parker
Dan Dickau
Josh Howard
David Harrison
David Lee (this where pick #30 started to be the last pick in the first round)
Joel Freeland
Petteri Koponen
JR Giddens
Christian Eyenga
Lazar Hayward
Jimmy Butler
Festus Ezeli
Nemenja Nedovic
Kyle Anderson

Thus it seems to be that pick at least in the last 15 years has had almost as good a chance to become an all starish type player (Parker, Howard, Lee and Butler) as it does to barely play or not come to the league at all like Koponen (clear busts - Harrison, Giddens, Eyenga, Hayward).  Still too early on Ezeli, Nedovic, and Anderson.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #88 on: November 21, 2014, 11:42:58 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Sigh.  That's not what I'm saying at all and you know you it.  Yes, I acknowledge that there is some uncertainty in drafting players, but it seems like everyone today doesn't want to take the time to develop these guys - they just want an in-their-prime superstar now, now, now, and, with a few exceptions, that's just not how things work.  You make it sound like drafting players is like playing a slot machine at a casino, where, odds are, you'll never win anything because the game is completely rigged, and only a miracle would ever yield even a serviceable player, and what I'm saying is that, if you do your homework, the guys you draft shouldn't be out of the league in less than 2 seasons (cough JR Giddens cough cough ;D).  I realize that every draft class is different, but 2013 wasn't nearly as bad as we previously thought - not when you have MCW, GA, Tim Hardaway JR, I'll throw in McLemore because he seems to intrigue a lot of people, Steven Adams, Trey Burke, Oladipo, Noel, KCP, Otto Porter, Plumlee, Dieng, and some guys haven't even gotten a chance to play yet, like CJ McCollum and Shabazz Muhammed, and Shane Larkin is only getting minutes this year with the Knicks.  That's hardly a bad draft, imo.

Maybe gms have too much information nowadays, and so it's become paralysis by over-analysis in some cases, but I really have no idea.

I did get little snarky which wasn't necessary but to continue the discussion I will take your example of Giddens.  If I recall, he was the 30th pick in 2008.  When picking at 30, you probably have a 1 in 10 chance of picking a player that will stay in the league.  You can say that Giddens turned out to be a "bad pick" but I don't think you can expect a GM to do much better at that point in the draft.  Every once in a while, you can get lucky but I do not fault Danny for picking Giddens any more than I fault Phi for picking Petteri Koponen in 2007 or Cle for picking Christian Eyenga in 2009 or Lazar Hayward in 2010 but you have to hand it to Chi as they got Jimmy Butler in 2011.

It is a crap shoot, even in the top 5 picks, by #30, you have to be extremely lucky to get a player that is going to make a difference.
Since 2000, the last pick in the first round (which was Giddens but some years was pick 28 or 29) have been the following, oldest first

Mark Madsen
Tony Parker
Dan Dickau
Josh Howard
David Harrison
David Lee (this where pick #30 started to be the last pick in the first round)
Joel Freeland
Petteri Koponen
JR Giddens
Christian Eyenga
Lazar Hayward
Jimmy Butler
Festus Ezeli
Nemenja Nedovic
Kyle Anderson

Thus it seems to be that pick at least in the last 15 years has had almost as good a chance to become an all starish type player (Parker, Howard, Lee and Butler) as it does to barely play or not come to the league at all like Koponen (clear busts - Harrison, Giddens, Eyenga, Hayward).  Still too early on Ezeli, Nedovic, and Anderson.


I think you're overstating things because you've just happened to pick a small sample with some better-than-average picks in that range.

Go here:

http://www.draftexpress.com/NBA-draft-pick-stats/27/PER/

Click through the whole range 20-30 and you'll see the big picture from a much larger sample. Few players in that range become starters, much less stars, and many are out after a couple of years at the end of the bench.

(Also you are losing me with "Allstar-ish" as applied to Jimmy Butler...)

Re: Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype
« Reply #89 on: November 21, 2014, 12:09:28 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Sigh.  That's not what I'm saying at all and you know you it.  Yes, I acknowledge that there is some uncertainty in drafting players, but it seems like everyone today doesn't want to take the time to develop these guys - they just want an in-their-prime superstar now, now, now, and, with a few exceptions, that's just not how things work.  You make it sound like drafting players is like playing a slot machine at a casino, where, odds are, you'll never win anything because the game is completely rigged, and only a miracle would ever yield even a serviceable player, and what I'm saying is that, if you do your homework, the guys you draft shouldn't be out of the league in less than 2 seasons (cough JR Giddens cough cough ;D).  I realize that every draft class is different, but 2013 wasn't nearly as bad as we previously thought - not when you have MCW, GA, Tim Hardaway JR, I'll throw in McLemore because he seems to intrigue a lot of people, Steven Adams, Trey Burke, Oladipo, Noel, KCP, Otto Porter, Plumlee, Dieng, and some guys haven't even gotten a chance to play yet, like CJ McCollum and Shabazz Muhammed, and Shane Larkin is only getting minutes this year with the Knicks.  That's hardly a bad draft, imo.

Maybe gms have too much information nowadays, and so it's become paralysis by over-analysis in some cases, but I really have no idea.

I did get little snarky which wasn't necessary but to continue the discussion I will take your example of Giddens.  If I recall, he was the 30th pick in 2008.  When picking at 30, you probably have a 1 in 10 chance of picking a player that will stay in the league.  You can say that Giddens turned out to be a "bad pick" but I don't think you can expect a GM to do much better at that point in the draft.  Every once in a while, you can get lucky but I do not fault Danny for picking Giddens any more than I fault Phi for picking Petteri Koponen in 2007 or Cle for picking Christian Eyenga in 2009 or Lazar Hayward in 2010 but you have to hand it to Chi as they got Jimmy Butler in 2011.

It is a crap shoot, even in the top 5 picks, by #30, you have to be extremely lucky to get a player that is going to make a difference.
Since 2000, the last pick in the first round (which was Giddens but some years was pick 28 or 29) have been the following, oldest first

Mark Madsen
Tony Parker
Dan Dickau
Josh Howard
David Harrison
David Lee (this where pick #30 started to be the last pick in the first round)
Joel Freeland
Petteri Koponen
JR Giddens
Christian Eyenga
Lazar Hayward
Jimmy Butler
Festus Ezeli
Nemenja Nedovic
Kyle Anderson

Thus it seems to be that pick at least in the last 15 years has had almost as good a chance to become an all starish type player (Parker, Howard, Lee and Butler) as it does to barely play or not come to the league at all like Koponen (clear busts - Harrison, Giddens, Eyenga, Hayward).  Still too early on Ezeli, Nedovic, and Anderson.


I think you're overstating things because you've just happened to pick a small sample with some better-than-average picks in that range.

Go here:

http://www.draftexpress.com/NBA-draft-pick-stats/27/PER/

Click through the whole range 20-30 and you'll see the big picture from a much larger sample. Few players in that range become starters, much less stars, and many are out after a couple of years at the end of the bench.

(Also you are losing me with "Allstar-ish" as applied to Jimmy Butler...)
Butler has improved each season and currently in his fourth season and is averaging 21.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 3.6 apg shooting 52.1% and playing very strong defense. 

only about 1/3 of all players start any given game.  So by nature you are always going to find less starters than non-starters when you take a huge range of picks like that.  I merely pointed out that there are plenty of all star level players taken with the last pick in the draft.  Just like there are plenty of complete busts taken with that pick.  The problem I have in particular with the selection of Giddens, is there were a number of players taken within in the first 7 picks of the 2nd round you have some great players and in particular I and a number of posters on this board wanted Boston to select Deandre Jordan as we felt he was the perfect high reward type player (and for a team coming off a championship you can risk the bust there).  In retrospect we were correct, but also would have been fine with Nikola Pekovic, Omer Asik, Mario Chalmers, or Mbah a Moute.  A lot of people wanted Chris Douglas Roberts that draft and while he wasn't a great player, he did play nearly 5 times the games that Giddens did.  Goran Dragic was also in that 2nd round. 
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip