Sigh. That's not what I'm saying at all and you know you it. Yes, I acknowledge that there is some uncertainty in drafting players, but it seems like everyone today doesn't want to take the time to develop these guys - they just want an in-their-prime superstar now, now, now, and, with a few exceptions, that's just not how things work. You make it sound like drafting players is like playing a slot machine at a casino, where, odds are, you'll never win anything because the game is completely rigged, and only a miracle would ever yield even a serviceable player, and what I'm saying is that, if you do your homework, the guys you draft shouldn't be out of the league in less than 2 seasons (cough JR Giddens cough cough ). I realize that every draft class is different, but 2013 wasn't nearly as bad as we previously thought - not when you have MCW, GA, Tim Hardaway JR, I'll throw in McLemore because he seems to intrigue a lot of people, Steven Adams, Trey Burke, Oladipo, Noel, KCP, Otto Porter, Plumlee, Dieng, and some guys haven't even gotten a chance to play yet, like CJ McCollum and Shabazz Muhammed, and Shane Larkin is only getting minutes this year with the Knicks. That's hardly a bad draft, imo.
Maybe gms have too much information nowadays, and so it's become paralysis by over-analysis in some cases, but I really have no idea.
I did get little snarky which wasn't necessary but to continue the discussion I will take your example of Giddens. If I recall, he was the 30th pick in 2008. When picking at 30, you probably have a 1 in 10 chance of picking a player that will stay in the league. You can say that Giddens turned out to be a "bad pick" but I don't think you can expect a GM to do much better at that point in the draft. Every once in a while, you can get lucky but I do not fault Danny for picking Giddens any more than I fault Phi for picking Petteri Koponen in 2007 or Cle for picking Christian Eyenga in 2009 or Lazar Hayward in 2010 but you have to hand it to Chi as they got Jimmy Butler in 2011.
It is a crap shoot, even in the top 5 picks, by #30, you have to be extremely lucky to get a player that is going to make a difference.
It's fine, don't worry about it. As for your figures, are those your personal observations over the years or did you get them from a website that tracks such things? I agree that a 1 in 10 chance of landing a serviceable player at such a position in the draft is hardly a reason to be optimistic, but guys slide all the time, and all I'm saying is that you shouldn't resign yourself to the fact that we aren't going to get anyone at #30 or whatever just because history isn't in our favor. Each draft is different - it's not like we're playing blackjack here and our past choices will somehow alter our chances in a coming draft. Deandre Jordan, Mario Chalmers, Dejuan Blair, Lance Stephenson, and Chandler Parsons all slipped to the second round in recent years, and Wesley Matthews, Henry Sims, and Anthony Morrow went undrafted, so it's not impossible to find impact players in the later positions in the draft. I know that sometimes there isn't anyone left, but that's also rare. The bottom line, though, is that I don't agree that the draft is a crap shoot, so I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on that one haha
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