"Danny doesn't like to draft foreigners": analysis

[Boris Badenov]

I posted this in the Nurkic thread in response to some comments there, but thought it might be its own topic too.

I went back as far as the 2004 draft.

For each pick we had, I looked at all foreign players taken in the next 10 slots. These are guys Ainge plausibly "passed" on when he had the chance to take them.

I'm disregarding guys who were early 2nd round picks we couldn't plausibly have taken with an earlier 1st because of contract/buyout issues (famously, Pekovic - and also I think Asik).

Names in parentheses indicate the player we took. Names that follow are Euros we passed on.

Apologies if I've missed anything, I did this pretty quickly.

2004 (Jefferson). Passed on: Pozdolkine, Khryapa, Monia.

2004 (Justin Reed). Passed on: Sanikizde, Seung-jin, Lishouk.

2005 (Gerald Green). Passed on: Petro, Mahinmi.

2005 (Gomes). Passed on: Hervelle, Gortat, Slokar, Ankyol.

2006 (7th pick). Passed on: Sene, Sefolosha. (Traded for pieces later used in KG trade).

2006 (Rondo). Passed on: Rodriguez, Freeland.

2007 (5th pick). Passed on: Jianlian. (Traded for Ray Allen.)

2007 (Pruitt). Passed on: Fesenko, Barak, Yue, Gasol. (Note that Gasol was more than 10 picks later...but I know people will bring him up...in which case we also passed on Seibutis, Newley and Printezis).

2008 (Giddens). Passed on: Jawai. (See above for buyout issues on Pek and Asik).

2010 (Bradley). Passed on: None. (Tibor Pleiss and Nemjana Bjelica were the next two Euros taken.)

2010 (Harangody). Passed on: Sy.

2011 (JJJ). Passed on: none.

2011 (Moore). Passed on: Maduabum, Ngombo, Majok, Hanga.

2012 (Sully/Melo). Passed on: none. (Satoransky was the next Euro taken, in round 2).

2012 (Joseph). Passed on:Kuzmic, Karaman.

2013 (Olynyk). Passed on: Giannis, Noguiera, Schroder, Karasev, Gobert.

2013 (Iverson). Passed on: Lauvergne, Dubljevic, Timma.

2014 (Smart). Passed on: Saric, Nurkic.

2014 (Young). Passed on: Caboclo, Capela, Bogdanovic.


Summing it all up I'd say that Ainge has missed two guys (Gasol and Gortat), possibly missed another depending on how hot you are for Giannis....and skipped countless Euros taken by others later, nearly all of whom turned out to be absolute scrubs and nobodies. Even if you look at Ainge's misses they are more often domestic than foreign.

It looks less like bias and more like smart drafting to me.

[GetLucky]

I agree with your analysis. The fact that I haven't heard of about half those people (and I actively follow the NBA) is encouraging.

Also, of the people that are on that list, very few of them has drawn high praises in recent memory.

[aingeforthree]

It's so hard to scout the foreign player.  Generally, you get only the games they play nationally to actually look at them against 'some' NBA/NCAA competition.

The foreign player is usually going up against lesser competition, even lesser than NCAA competition at times.  How do you scout that ?  How do you compare ?

What happens when they play the best of the best ?  Or get out there with guys in division 1, who often times dominate a lesser conference but yet are still drafted late in the first or early in the second rounds ?  I.E. Guys like J.R. Giddens (ran through the Mountain West Conf. like it was nothing)

Do you take Giddens who dominated tougher competition here, or do you take Jawai who dominated slugs ?

It's a true guessing game when it comes to the foreign players.  You get lucky every once in a blue moon.

[loco_91]

Agreed. Also recall that Ainge personally scouted Saric and Nurkic in Europe, so clearly he was interested in at least one of those players. I'd believe that he tends to lean a bit toward domestics relative to DX/ESPN's rankings, but there's no evidence for anything stronger.

[hwangjini_1]

great post bb. tp for all the homework needed to put this together.

just to add a bit to it all, let's remember than ainge did draft olly and melo, both of whom are "internationals" by virture of them not being born in the US. but then again, both of them played their college ball in the US, so i guess each side of the "ainge is a xenophobe" debate could lay claim to this.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Is Semih Erden the only foreign player that Danny drafted?

[sahara]

Oh that xenophobic Danny

</sarcasm>

[Boris Badenov]

let's remember than ainge did draft olly and melo, both of whom are "internationals" by virture of them not being born in the US. but then again, both of them played their college ball in the US, so i guess each side of the "ainge is a xenophobe" debate could lay claim to this.

Of course in Melo's case the argument would be more about why the other side needs to claim him.

[kozlodoev]

Is Semih Erden the only foreign player that Danny drafted?

No.

[Eja117]

Semih is one of the only Euros drafted that late that ever played in the league

[Finkelskyhook]

Based on Boris' list....I'd say Danny has done pretty well not drafting from overseas.

[erisred]

Is Semih Erden the only foreign player that Danny drafted?

Well, Canada is a foreign country...so no.

[colincb]

TP for the OP.

Good job.

[Smartacus]

Agreed. Also recall that Ainge personally scouted Saric and Nurkic in Europe, so clearly he was interested in at least one of those players. I'd believe that he tends to lean a bit toward domestics relative to DX/ESPN's rankings, but there's no evidence for anything stronger.

These could have also been European Smoke Screen Vacations. Danny never like's to tip off who he's interested in unless it benefits him or an ally in the league like the time we were suddenly interested in trading up for Austin Rivers on draft day. Always felt that was the final push that NO needed to pick him.

Meanwhile Danny get's to get away from Boston for a bit to watch a little Euroleague the whole time knowing he's never going to draft this player but making teams think again about who he's actually interested in. A bit of a reach? Sure. Impossible? Not with our GM.

[Chris22]

Giddens over DeAndre Jordan.

What the flagnogg?