Author Topic: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs  (Read 12203 times)

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Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #30 on: October 25, 2014, 02:15:54 AM »

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Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #31 on: October 25, 2014, 02:23:21 AM »

Offline DarkAzcura

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*No defensive big man ala Asik
*focus on three pointers- rarely goes well in the first season and we are going to put up a boat load of threes this season. I love the idea, but it will take one or two season to get the offense going smoothly to the point where these shots aren't forced and our guys learn to shoot half-contested three's.
*Smart has been given the green light to throw as many threes up as he wants.
*We will likely waive Will Bynum, who would have been a very good dribble penetration player for us. If we wanted to win more than anything, why wouldn't we keep him?
* Giving early minutes to James Young and Powell- these guys are going to get minutes this season when they belong in the D League. Sure they look okay against other D Leaguers in pre season but yeah...
*Spreading the defense out like Stevens wants to do is going to PUNISH Olynk and Sullinger inside against dribble penetration.

*Rondo still doesn't have a pick and roll big man other than Zeller.
*Jeff Green is still going to start and Evan Turner may start as well- what a disaster.

We are still going to be a jumpshooting/three point shooting team with no real inside offensive presence.

I don't understand why people can't see the difference between pre-season defense and shot selection vs regular season NBA games.

When you're a poor jumpshooting team, you don't win in the NBA.
Factor in that there will possibly be trades of Green, Bass an Thornton and our bench depth will be crucified if we lose Bass or Thornton.
*what team that wants to win gives Evan Turner a 2 year deal as a key piece of your season? He's only here because he's cheap and nasty and Danny wants to pull one over on some sucker for some other assets (if Turner looks better with the ball in his hands less in Stevens offense).

We are going to be pretty terrible again and if you think we're making the playoffs you're going to be sorely disappointed.
The general idea of these optimistic CBers is that Stevens offense is somehow going to turn us into a young version of the Spurs and that the passing, ball movement and three point shooting is the answer.
The Spurs have Tim Duncan or Tiago Splitter guarding the rim. They have one of the best point guards penetrating consistently as a triple threat, surrounded by three point shooters who can shoot in the face of the top 3 defenses in the NBA. (Heat, Chicago, Pacers).

All this shooting is designed as a way to get these stars open and get them the looks they want. We don't have stars. We have one top 100 player who can't shoot threes.
There are four teams in the NBA with only 1 top 100 player.
The Lakers, the Knicks, the 76ers and the Celtics.
All four teams are going to be terrible- although depending how Bargani plays in the triangle- they may have two top 50 players by mid way through the season and start winning more.


You're right we didn't pick up a defensive big man. I wanted that, but maybe the one Ainge wants in particular wasn't available. Maybe he felt Asik wasn't worth a stop-gap move, but in all honesty, I'm with you on this point.

Next point, I'm not with you on. You're right in the sense that teams will struggle with a culture change like that, but you are wrong about the timing. The 3PT experiment started last season with Sullinger shooting 3 a game at bad percentages. Bradley shot a ton of 3s at 40%. Green shot a ton of 3s. Olynyk had the greenlight obviously. Even Rondo was shooting 3 3PA a game after never shooting above 1 in his whole career. The 3PT movement already began. This is year two, and in a short sample size, we have already seen the fruits of the labor so far.

Penetrating guard that can pass to the 3PT shooters? Like Rondo? I'm pretty sure Rondo can drive and dish better than Parker so I'm not worried about that. Obviously he isn't as good a scorer, but if we are talking penetrating and dishing, I'm not worried whatsoever.

The Spurs have the defensive bigs, and people are making the Spurs comparison based on style, which holds weight no matter what. The Spurs had 7 out of 9 rotation players shooting at least 1.5 3PA last season at an average of 40% combined. I'm not crazy. I know the Celtics won't be at 40%, but the style will be replicated, and considering we have some good shooters in Thornton, Bradley, Olynyk, and Sullinger, I think we will fare pretty well in this department potentially. Turner, Rondo, and Smart will drag the overall percentage down, but the spacing will be there, which is important for those 3 guys to do their work with penetration.

I'm not sure what your point about Will Bynum is. His being waived is not an indication of whether we are trying to win or not. Our backcourt is absolutely loaded. We just have too many good players in front of him deserving of minutes. Rondo, Bradley, Smart, Thornton, and Turner. I'll take all of them over Bynum any day. We already have Pressey as our PG towell waver. If there is one positive thing to say about this team, it's related to the backcourt.

Powell and Young receiving early minutes is another indiction that we are trying to lose? At this point I feel like you are trying to grasp for straws. It was pre-season. Obviously they are going to get minutes. Neither player will see the court in the regular season unless we are hit with the injury bug. Young may see situational minutes if we are down a shooter. Otherwise, expect them to be in the D-League or be practice all-stars. I'm not sure why them receiving pre-season minutes is throwing you off.

Rondo doesn't have another pick and roll guy. You are right there, but this offense has been in the works since last season, and it fits his game really well. The reason our offense died in the late Doc years wasn't because of Rondo. It was because Doc failed to make the offense more 3PT orientated, which has been a work in progress for a season now.

The shooting in SAS wasn't designed to get their stars open. It WAS their offense. It was the basis of their offense. Their core has aged considerably, and Pop found a way to continue to win. Defense and high paced 3PT shooting. We have the backcourt defense down. Lacking in the frontcourt obviously. 3PT shooting is still a work in progress, but in much better shape than last season.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #32 on: October 25, 2014, 08:34:06 AM »

Offline GreenWarrior

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When you're a poor jumpshooting team, you don't win in the NBA.

I wanted to quote your whole post but this pretty much tells our story this season. we're a poor jumpshooting team encouraged to take way too many jumpshots. it's a recipe for disaster and no amount of defense, hype, aggressiveness, average players, young talented players or offensive scheme is going to overcome this. we will be getting a top 10 pick again this yr. 

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #33 on: October 25, 2014, 09:11:17 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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I will be interested if some of the growth shown in preseason will be sustained.  I mean the games do not matter so guys are not Ding up hard if they are starters.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #34 on: October 25, 2014, 11:54:28 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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I will be interested if some of the growth shown in preseason will be sustained.  I mean the games do not matter so guys are not Ding up hard if they are starters.

And my guess would be in that realm, rotating and closing out hard on 3 point shooters is something that really picks up during the regular season, with better defenders who are consistently on the floor together.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #35 on: October 27, 2014, 11:07:30 PM »

Offline chambers

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*No defensive big man ala Asik
*focus on three pointers- rarely goes well in the first season and we are going to put up a boat load of threes this season. I love the idea, but it will take one or two season to get the offense going smoothly to the point where these shots aren't forced and our guys learn to shoot half-contested three's.
*Smart has been given the green light to throw as many threes up as he wants.
*We will likely waive Will Bynum, who would have been a very good dribble penetration player for us. If we wanted to win more than anything, why wouldn't we keep him?
* Giving early minutes to James Young and Powell- these guys are going to get minutes this season when they belong in the D League. Sure they look okay against other D Leaguers in pre season but yeah...
*Spreading the defense out like Stevens wants to do is going to PUNISH Olynk and Sullinger inside against dribble penetration.

*Rondo still doesn't have a pick and roll big man other than Zeller.
*Jeff Green is still going to start and Evan Turner may start as well- what a disaster.

We are still going to be a jumpshooting/three point shooting team with no real inside offensive presence.

I don't understand why people can't see the difference between pre-season defense and shot selection vs regular season NBA games.

When you're a poor jumpshooting team, you don't win in the NBA.
Factor in that there will possibly be trades of Green, Bass an Thornton and our bench depth will be crucified if we lose Bass or Thornton.
*what team that wants to win gives Evan Turner a 2 year deal as a key piece of your season? He's only here because he's cheap and nasty and Danny wants to pull one over on some sucker for some other assets (if Turner looks better with the ball in his hands less in Stevens offense).

We are going to be pretty terrible again and if you think we're making the playoffs you're going to be sorely disappointed.
The general idea of these optimistic CBers is that Stevens offense is somehow going to turn us into a young version of the Spurs and that the passing, ball movement and three point shooting is the answer.
The Spurs have Tim Duncan or Tiago Splitter guarding the rim. They have one of the best point guards penetrating consistently as a triple threat, surrounded by three point shooters who can shoot in the face of the top 3 defenses in the NBA. (Heat, Chicago, Pacers).

All this shooting is designed as a way to get these stars open and get them the looks they want. We don't have stars. We have one top 100 player who can't shoot threes.
There are four teams in the NBA with only 1 top 100 player.
The Lakers, the Knicks, the 76ers and the Celtics.
All four teams are going to be terrible- although depending how Bargani plays in the triangle- they may have two top 50 players by mid way through the season and start winning more.


You're right we didn't pick up a defensive big man. I wanted that, but maybe the one Ainge wants in particular wasn't available. Maybe he felt Asik wasn't worth a stop-gap move, but in all honesty, I'm with you on this point.

Next point, I'm not with you on. You're right in the sense that teams will struggle with a culture change like that, but you are wrong about the timing. The 3PT experiment started last season with Sullinger shooting 3 a game at bad percentages. Bradley shot a ton of 3s at 40%. Green shot a ton of 3s. Olynyk had the greenlight obviously. Even Rondo was shooting 3 3PA a game after never shooting above 1 in his whole career. The 3PT movement already began. This is year two, and in a short sample size, we have already seen the fruits of the labor so far.

Penetrating guard that can pass to the 3PT shooters? Like Rondo? I'm pretty sure Rondo can drive and dish better than Parker so I'm not worried about that. Obviously he isn't as good a scorer, but if we are talking penetrating and dishing, I'm not worried whatsoever.

The Spurs have the defensive bigs, and people are making the Spurs comparison based on style, which holds weight no matter what. The Spurs had 7 out of 9 rotation players shooting at least 1.5 3PA last season at an average of 40% combined. I'm not crazy. I know the Celtics won't be at 40%, but the style will be replicated, and considering we have some good shooters in Thornton, Bradley, Olynyk, and Sullinger, I think we will fare pretty well in this department potentially. Turner, Rondo, and Smart will drag the overall percentage down, but the spacing will be there, which is important for those 3 guys to do their work with penetration.

I'm not sure what your point about Will Bynum is. His being waived is not an indication of whether we are trying to win or not. Our backcourt is absolutely loaded. We just have too many good players in front of him deserving of minutes. Rondo, Bradley, Smart, Thornton, and Turner. I'll take all of them over Bynum any day. We already have Pressey as our PG towell waver. If there is one positive thing to say about this team, it's related to the backcourt.

Powell and Young receiving early minutes is another indiction that we are trying to lose? At this point I feel like you are trying to grasp for straws. It was pre-season. Obviously they are going to get minutes. Neither player will see the court in the regular season unless we are hit with the injury bug. Young may see situational minutes if we are down a shooter. Otherwise, expect them to be in the D-League or be practice all-stars. I'm not sure why them receiving pre-season minutes is throwing you off.

Rondo doesn't have another pick and roll guy. You are right there, but this offense has been in the works since last season, and it fits his game really well. The reason our offense died in the late Doc years wasn't because of Rondo. It was because Doc failed to make the offense more 3PT orientated, which has been a work in progress for a season now.

The shooting in SAS wasn't designed to get their stars open. It WAS their offense. It was the basis of their offense. Their core has aged considerably, and Pop found a way to continue to win. Defense and high paced 3PT shooting. We have the backcourt defense down. Lacking in the frontcourt obviously. 3PT shooting is still a work in progress, but in much better shape than last season.

So we are at a slight disagreement with the 3 point strategy that the team has made a key component of its offense. To me this team hasn't brushed the surface of anything like this before. Sure last year we threw up a reasonable amount of threes but we were 18th out of 30 NBA teams for three pointers attempted.
I just don't think this team can sustain 36% shooting on 29 attempts a game at this stage of their development.

Last season we were about 21 attempts a game at...if I remember correctly at 33%.
Spurs were like 40% from 3 at 21 attempts a game- which to me indicates a team that isn't living and dying by the three. Ie the Warriors with two of the best shooters in the game took 25 threes a game at 38%.
 The Spurs (like Miami) use the three as a way to open the floor up for penetration by Parker, Ginobli and their wings, and spacing for ISO post play for Tim Duncan. They have role players hawking the three point line and stars that are taking the ball to the hole for higher percentage shots. If the defense chooses to do the right thing and guard the penetration with help, then they dish out to these role players and they OWN the three point line- they still only take 21 a game though which is 17th in the league for attempted threes.

The Celtics taking 29 attempts a game, with very few dribble penetration players to capitalise on this floor spacing effectively is a recipe for disaster. I love the idea and it's 100% the right direction to take- unfortunately I don't think we have the personnel to make this strategy successful right now.

Look at last years team rankings in 3 point shots attempted and then tell me how well they fared.
Then note the star players on their team and their skills.
The only team that comes close to us line up wise for me are the Warriors- and again, they have arguably the best shooting backcourt tandem in the NBA and a top 5 defensive big man in Bogut with a solid post presence in David Lee.

 We have no one like Bogut, we have one player on Steph Curry's level (Rondo)- but he can't shoot threes, which means that teams have an easier time sagging off and over guarding on our three point threats. We have Sullinger as our lone post threat and we are yet to see how he does- although I'm confident he'll be a solid post player. We do have Olynyk to attempt to keep the rim protector away from the basket so that Rondo, Turner, Smart and Green can drive- but again other than Jeff Green all these guys stink from behind the arc and ALL of them have questionable FG% other than a healthy Rondo.

It's going to be interesting to see how Rondo works in this offense because they've been encouraging everyone bar Turner to throw up anything that looks open.
I don't think they'll have the room they've had during pre season to hit threes at 36%. At least Rondo can get to the hole and free throw line.

This is why I feel that Will Bynum would have been a keeper if we were trying to get the best line up possible. He could run pick and roll with Sully, Olynyk and Bass when Rondo's off and he can get to the line and create off the dribble.

Anyway, I believe the strategy is great, and we have some really nice plays that will throw a lot of players off when they are defending us with Olynyk and Sully hanging around the 3 point line and drawing their bigs outside.
I just don't think we have the personnel to get more than 30 wins out of it against NBA players.

I think this first stretch of 15 games is going to crush their optimism that they currently have and it's going to affect the mental state of the team at critical moments throughout the season.

Thank god Brad Stevens has taken pre season so seriously because we are going to need all the help we can get in this first stretch. We'll have to hope that he's been cracking them into game shape with a decent fitness regime so we can steal a few games off the elite teams while they're still getting the offseason rust and weight off.

We've got a brilliant coach, with some really solid role players, and some very good All Star caliber potential- but we don't have the pieces to be anything close to a playoff team.

Hey I could be completely wrong and I hope they prove me wrong. I just believe that we've plotted the course and we've started sailing beautifully...I just don't think the ship will last the journey and will probably sink about 60% of the way there :)

"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

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Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #36 on: October 28, 2014, 05:42:05 AM »

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All this shooting is designed as a way to get these stars open and get them the looks they want. We don't have stars. We have one top 100 player who can't shoot threes.
There are four teams in the NBA with only 1 top 100 player.
The Lakers, the Knicks, the 76ers and the Celtics.
All four teams are going to be terrible


I have the Celtics with 3 players in the top 100 -- Rondo, Sully and J.Green.

Although only Rondo in the top 50.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #37 on: October 28, 2014, 08:31:26 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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I don't know, to my eye-test (extremely non-scientific) we have a better roster than last year.  How having a better roster doesn't equate to more wins is beyond me.

completely agree that we have a better roster this season over last year.

however, almost every other team does as well.  the teams that aren't better than last year (Indy, Miami, NY possibly) didn't decline enough for the C's to be better than them.  The teams as bad as us (worse or close to our record) all improved via the draft, injured players returning and young players expected to improve (same situation as C's in that respect). 

Only team that should be clearly worse than the C's is Philly and probably Utah unless Exum becomes an overnight franchise player and their big man rotation makes a real leap forward this year.  We'll be back and forth with Orlando for 3rd/4th worst record in the league I figure.

Point taken on other teams improving as well.  I guess I don't really know if we will jump a lot in the standings versus other teams in the east, I just think we will win more games than last year because of an improved roster. 

I see us better than Philly, Orlando, and maybe Detroit, Milwaukee, and the knicks.  Maybe we just up a spot or two, maybe we don't.   I don't see us being an 8 or 9 seed, def a bit further down the pack.  But if we are in contention for the playoffs I will be stoked either way.  It means our young players are improving.
it looks like you're just sticking to who you think we'll be better than in the East. 

For me, Philly is a given.  As I mentioned, both Orlando and Boston are both relying on young players to make improvements in their games as well as 2 rookies to make an impact.  We could/should very well be better than them since we have more experienced talent and depth but Orlando has a better-balanced roster IMHO.  They could make the 'leap' past us in the standings.

Detroit has a more-talented roster and now has a better coach that should get more from those players. 
Knicks have Melo and some decent players.  Not a roster I would expect to sniff the playoffs but a better roster than ours in terms of balance and if they can keep a game close, Melo is a big weapon for scoring down the stretch.
Milwaukee woefully underperformed last year.  No way they should have been that bad.  I would expect that roster to play much better this year and that's even if they hadn't added Parker.  Since they did add him, he gives that team someone who can score down the stretch (granted that's just speculation on my part until he actually does that in the regular season) which they really needed last year.  Sanders coming back healthy and with his head hopefully screwed on straight and that's the team I would expect to see the biggest improvement in this season.

normally, I would go along with an improved roster translating into more wins since I do believe this is a better roster than last year but when so many of the other bottom teams in the league also improved, I'm having difficulty seeing where we'd be picking up those extra wins.  I have no doubt this team will pull off a few upsets during the season but with a lack of a good center and mediocre starters at SG, SF and PF (hoping Sully makes the leap to Good PF) nevermind a lousy C, the matchups on the floor will give us a rare advantage over the other team but frequently a draw or disadvantage most nights.  Rondo at PG is the only spot where we can typically count on having the advantage most nights.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #38 on: October 28, 2014, 08:46:27 AM »

Offline clover

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All this shooting is designed as a way to get these stars open and get them the looks they want. We don't have stars. We have one top 100 player who can't shoot threes.
There are four teams in the NBA with only 1 top 100 player.
The Lakers, the Knicks, the 76ers and the Celtics.
All four teams are going to be terrible


I have the Celtics with 3 players in the top 100 -- Rondo, Sully and J.Green.

Although only Rondo in the top 50.

I'm with you on Sully in the top 100, but Green? I don't think so.

Meanwhile, 538 seems to have come out with the best overall W-L predictions so far, and they give the C's 32 wins:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nba-preview-the-sixers-are-going-nowhere-fast/

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #39 on: October 28, 2014, 08:57:55 AM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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All this shooting is designed as a way to get these stars open and get them the looks they want. We don't have stars. We have one top 100 player who can't shoot threes.
There are four teams in the NBA with only 1 top 100 player.
The Lakers, the Knicks, the 76ers and the Celtics.
All four teams are going to be terrible


I have the Celtics with 3 players in the top 100 -- Rondo, Sully and J.Green.

Although only Rondo in the top 50.

I'm with you on Sully in the top 100, but Green? I don't think so.

Meanwhile, 538 seems to have come out with the best overall W-L predictions so far, and they give the C's 32 wins:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nba-preview-the-sixers-are-going-nowhere-fast/

32 wins and 11th place seems a lot more reasonable.  I liked this tidbit (mainly about Olynyk):

Quote
Yet something interesting has happened in recent years: Seven-footers are taking more threes. The rate nearly tripled between the 2011 season average of 2.6 percent and last season’s record-shattering high of 7.6 percent.

Wonder how much that'll come back to Earth this year with Byron Mullens out of the league and Hawes in a reduced role.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #40 on: October 28, 2014, 09:28:12 AM »

Offline Fred Roberts

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Not a chance.  I'll take the over on that bet every day of the season and twice on, well, every day of the season.

Mike

Agreed. Silly "experts". . .

Celts will be closer to 35 wins than 25. Bank it.

Everything went wrong last year, we seemingly tried to lose and still wound up at 25 wins. Rondo is back. Avery is back. Jeff proved he could play all 82, and will expand his game. Turner has something to prove and will mesh w/ Sully & Oly, who are both going to be better. Zeller adds an element we lacked, running the floor and giving us true 7'1" height (!!!). Smart, Young and Powell may be the best trio of rookies in terms of potential upside I can recall. Year 2 of Brad Stevens. Thornton a true 3 pt threat. That's about 12 reasons right there.

I'm getting League Pass this season. It's on.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #41 on: October 28, 2014, 09:54:58 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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All this shooting is designed as a way to get these stars open and get them the looks they want. We don't have stars. We have one top 100 player who can't shoot threes.
There are four teams in the NBA with only 1 top 100 player.
The Lakers, the Knicks, the 76ers and the Celtics.
All four teams are going to be terrible


I have the Celtics with 3 players in the top 100 -- Rondo, Sully and J.Green.

Although only Rondo in the top 50.

I'm with you on Sully in the top 100, but Green? I don't think so.

Meanwhile, 538 seems to have come out with the best overall W-L predictions so far, and they give the C's 32 wins:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nba-preview-the-sixers-are-going-nowhere-fast/

Biting my steez: I've been saying 31 for months.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #42 on: October 28, 2014, 10:26:50 AM »

Offline JSD

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According to them , "they'll give the Sixers a run for their money for worst team in the NBA."

Arturo Galletti ends his write-up thusly:

Quote
As a Celtics fan, I don't expect a lot out of this particular season from a basketball standpoint. I have, in fact, embraced my ongoing affair with the team from Texas in black, white and silver (KAWHI!) to keep me entertained. I do however look at the moves, the assets, the front office and feel a great deal of hope for the future of the franchise.

Suck it Laker fans. Schadenfreude!

For comparison, 11% is higher than the 10.3% chance that the team with the fifth-worst record has of ending up with the #1 pick in the NBA draft lottery.

The only color that matters is GREEN

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #43 on: October 28, 2014, 11:25:08 AM »

Offline Celtics18

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Chambers,

You keep referring to the notion that we won't have enough dribble penetration to make the strategy of spacing the floor with 3 point shooters work. 

It confounds me how you consistently ignore the fact that we have one of the best drive and dish players in the game, who is going to be running the show from day one or fairly close to day one. 

DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #44 on: October 28, 2014, 11:36:58 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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My guess is that because teams will be planning around the 'dish' much more so than the drive, Chambers is supposing that the other perimeter players won't be particularly open.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.