Author Topic: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs  (Read 12202 times)

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Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2014, 03:35:29 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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They rate Humphries as I think a 5 win player in that projection, in just 1200 minutes. And in fact their numbers have him as a 6 win player in his 1376 minutes. Which is more productive than they rated KG in 2012-2013 by a wide margin.

Wonder how many wins Brandan Wright is worth in their estimation, since I think he's an even bigger advanced stats darling than Hump.

EDIT:  Hahahaha can't find a projection yet, but I guess last year he was worth 6.5 wins in 1077 minutes.  Guy's legitimately a really efficient player, but give me a break.

http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/players/203-brandan-wright

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2014, 03:36:46 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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I don't know, to my eye-test (extremely non-scientific) we have a better roster than last year.  How having a better roster doesn't equate to more wins is beyond me.

completely agree that we have a better roster this season over last year.

however, almost every other team does as well.  the teams that aren't better than last year (Indy, Miami, NY possibly) didn't decline enough for the C's to be better than them.  The teams as bad as us (worse or close to our record) all improved via the draft, injured players returning and young players expected to improve (same situation as C's in that respect). 

Only team that should be clearly worse than the C's is Philly and probably Utah unless Exum becomes an overnight franchise player and their big man rotation makes a real leap forward this year.  We'll be back and forth with Orlando for 3rd/4th worst record in the league I figure.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2014, 03:53:20 PM »

Offline Diggles

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I went to sports book.  They have them at 27!   

I took them to win the Eastern Conference, and Division too.  Go GREEN!


Not a chance.  I'll take the over on that bet every day of the season and twice on, well, every day of the season.

Mike
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Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #18 on: October 24, 2014, 04:04:31 PM »

Offline blink

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I don't know, to my eye-test (extremely non-scientific) we have a better roster than last year.  How having a better roster doesn't equate to more wins is beyond me.

completely agree that we have a better roster this season over last year.

however, almost every other team does as well.  the teams that aren't better than last year (Indy, Miami, NY possibly) didn't decline enough for the C's to be better than them.  The teams as bad as us (worse or close to our record) all improved via the draft, injured players returning and young players expected to improve (same situation as C's in that respect). 

Only team that should be clearly worse than the C's is Philly and probably Utah unless Exum becomes an overnight franchise player and their big man rotation makes a real leap forward this year.  We'll be back and forth with Orlando for 3rd/4th worst record in the league I figure.

Point taken on other teams improving as well.  I guess I don't really know if we will jump a lot in the standings versus other teams in the east, I just think we will win more games than last year because of an improved roster. 

I see us better than Philly, Orlando, and maybe Detroit, Milwaukee, and the knicks.  Maybe we just up a spot or two, maybe we don't.   I don't see us being an 8 or 9 seed, def a bit further down the pack.  But if we are in contention for the playoffs I will be stoked either way.  It means our young players are improving.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2014, 04:13:28 PM »

Offline Moranis

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25 wins seems about right as I think Boston is in the 22-28 win range.  All of the problems that existed last year, still exist.  This is an incredibly flawed team.
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Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2014, 04:19:34 PM »

Offline Chris22

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We win 35 games at least.

Last year we were trying to lose. That won't be the case this year.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #21 on: October 24, 2014, 05:26:10 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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I went to sports book.  They have them at 27!   

I took them to win the Eastern Conference, and Division too.  Go GREEN!


Not a chance.  I'll take the over on that bet every day of the season and twice on, well, every day of the season.

Mike

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At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #22 on: October 24, 2014, 05:55:44 PM »

Offline Kadin

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According to them , "they'll give the Sixers a run for their money for worst team in the NBA."

Arturo Galletti ends his write-up thusly:

Quote
As a Celtics fan, I don't expect a lot out of this particular season from a basketball standpoint. I have, in fact, embraced my ongoing affair with the team from Texas in black, white and silver (KAWHI!) to keep me entertained. I do however look at the moves, the assets, the front office and feel a great deal of hope for the future of the franchise.

Suck it Laker fans. Schadenfreude!

For comparison, 11% is higher than the 10.3% chance that the team with the fifth-worst record has of ending up with the #1 pick in the NBA draft lottery.

So basically this guy says he thinks the team sucks and he's a fan of another team now? What a loser.

Opinion discarded.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2014, 06:29:29 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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According to them , "they'll give the Sixers a run for their money for worst team in the NBA."

Arturo Galletti ends his write-up thusly:

Quote
As a Celtics fan, I don't expect a lot out of this particular season from a basketball standpoint. I have, in fact, embraced my ongoing affair with the team from Texas in black, white and silver (KAWHI!) to keep me entertained. I do however look at the moves, the assets, the front office and feel a great deal of hope for the future of the franchise.

Suck it Laker fans. Schadenfreude!

For comparison, 11% is higher than the 10.3% chance that the team with the fifth-worst record has of ending up with the #1 pick in the NBA draft lottery.

So basically this guy says he thinks the team sucks and he's a fan of another team now? What a loser.

Opinion discarded.

Yeah, that's basically not what he said.
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Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2014, 08:07:17 PM »

Offline BballTim

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According to them , "they'll give the Sixers a run for their money for worst team in the NBA."

Arturo Galletti ends his write-up thusly:

Quote
As a Celtics fan, I don't expect a lot out of this particular season from a basketball standpoint. I have, in fact, embraced my ongoing affair with the team from Texas in black, white and silver (KAWHI!) to keep me entertained. I do however look at the moves, the assets, the front office and feel a great deal of hope for the future of the franchise.

Suck it Laker fans. Schadenfreude!

For comparison, 11% is higher than the 10.3% chance that the team with the fifth-worst record has of ending up with the #1 pick in the NBA draft lottery.

So basically this guy says he thinks the team sucks and he's a fan of another team now? What a loser.

Opinion discarded.

  Don't worry, he'll be back on the bandwagon when the team's good.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #25 on: October 24, 2014, 08:16:03 PM »

Offline Who

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Looks like they undervalued Sullinger and Rondo.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #26 on: October 24, 2014, 08:34:39 PM »

Offline Birdman

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25-30 is my guess
C/PF-Horford, Baynes, Noel, Theis, Morris,
SF/SG- Tatum, Brown, Hayward, Smart, Semi, Clark
PG- Irving, Rozier, Larkin

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #27 on: October 24, 2014, 08:44:50 PM »

Offline GreenWarrior

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I can't think of a team that might be worse than us or philly. indy maybe? i'm wondering because my initial reaction to this thread was "i think we're a bad team but not one of the worst".

then I couldn't think of any other teams that might be. but thought back to the lottery teams this past yr. Mil., Utah, Orl.? i'm probably missing others but I think we're better than those teams. I could see us drafting from the same spot or a lil lower as last yr.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #28 on: October 24, 2014, 11:17:21 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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These guys do it for a living, I think I read Vegas has at 27 wins.    I would not bet against these guys if we won 35 I would be surprised.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #29 on: October 25, 2014, 12:22:02 AM »

Offline chambers

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These guys do it for a living, I think I read Vegas has at 27 wins.    I would not bet against these guys if we won 35 I would be surprised.

Exactly.
These guys are very good- Arturo in particular is a genius and he'll admit that there are some flaws in his system- ie Rondo being fully healthy and playing at All Star level last season when neither of those things happened-hence his 39 win prediction for us last season. I was shocked at that when I saw it last year and I went against his advice and put us at 24-26 wins thinking we'd be way better with Rondo and we won 25 which was surprisingly high to me.

For those criticizing Arturo, he predicted the Spurs in 2013, the Spurs in 2014 and was basically the first person to state that Ibaka was more important to the Thunder than Westbrook given his defensive impact on their win %.... and he was basically correct in all of those models other than the Spurs losing in 2013 ([dang] you Ray!). He also said that once Mike Miller was traded, and the Heat had failed to bring in more real three point shooting help, that the Spurs were going to walk it in- right from the beginning of the season.
He is biased towards the Celtics and although his 2013-14 simulation was way off, he did give Rondo 2500 minutes when it was no where near that. He also gave Wallace decent minutes which didn't happen.
Note his prediction in 2012-13 of 41 wins. He was spot on.

You'll notice that in the 2013-14 Celtics preview he said that if a big trade couldn't be done then the Celtics would shut it down and head for the draft. Patrick chimes in and give his two cents on the prediction...

I had to chime in here, too. This team is a real enigma. It has all the potential to be an "over-achiever" that wins Brad Stevens the coach of the year award as a rookie coach, but unfortunately, there is a ton of room for Boston to implode, either on purpose or accidentally.

For instance, the team should roll out a lineup of Rondo (when healthy), Lee, Wallace, Humphries and Sullinger, with Green off the bench and playing the 3, but instead they might very well roll out a lineup of Rondo, Bradley, Lee, Green, and Sullinger. And they might do something stupid like keep Rondo on the bench all year.


Anyway, Arturo is of the same opinion as me that this team has been constructed to be a lottery team. Not getting any kind of servicable defensive big man is the key again this season.

*No defensive big man ala Asik
*focus on three pointers- rarely goes well in the first season and we are going to put up a boat load of threes this season. I love the idea, but it will take one or two season to get the offense going smoothly to the point where these shots aren't forced and our guys learn to shoot half-contested three's.
*Smart has been given the green light to throw as many threes up as he wants.
*We will likely waive Will Bynum, who would have been a very good dribble penetration player for us. If we wanted to win more than anything, why wouldn't we keep him?
* Giving early minutes to James Young and Powell- these guys are going to get minutes this season when they belong in the D League. Sure they look okay against other D Leaguers in pre season but yeah...
*Spreading the defense out like Stevens wants to do is going to PUNISH Olynk and Sullinger inside against dribble penetration.

*Rondo still doesn't have a pick and roll big man other than Zeller.
*Jeff Green is still going to start and Evan Turner may start as well- what a disaster.

We are still going to be a jumpshooting/three point shooting team with no real inside offensive presence.

I don't understand why people can't see the difference between pre-season defense and shot selection vs regular season NBA games.

When you're a poor jumpshooting team, you don't win in the NBA.
Factor in that there will possibly be trades of Green, Bass an Thornton and our bench depth will be crucified if we lose Bass or Thornton.
*what team that wants to win gives Evan Turner a 2 year deal as a key piece of your season? He's only here because he's cheap and nasty and Danny wants to pull one over on some sucker for some other assets (if Turner looks better with the ball in his hands less in Stevens offense).

We are going to be pretty terrible again and if you think we're making the playoffs you're going to be sorely disappointed.
The general idea of these optimistic CBers is that Stevens offense is somehow going to turn us into a young version of the Spurs and that the passing, ball movement and three point shooting is the answer.
The Spurs have Tim Duncan or Tiago Splitter guarding the rim. They have one of the best point guards penetrating consistently as a triple threat, surrounded by three point shooters who can shoot in the face of the top 3 defenses in the NBA. (Heat, Chicago, Pacers).

All this shooting is designed as a way to get these stars open and get them the looks they want. We don't have stars. We have one top 100 player who can't shoot threes.
There are four teams in the NBA with only 1 top 100 player.
The Lakers, the Knicks, the 76ers and the Celtics.
All four teams are going to be terrible- although depending how Bargani plays in the triangle- they may have two top 50 players by mid way through the season and start winning more.

« Last Edit: October 25, 2014, 12:28:21 AM by chambers »
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.