Author Topic: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs  (Read 12221 times)

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Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« on: October 24, 2014, 02:17:22 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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According to them , "they'll give the Sixers a run for their money for worst team in the NBA."

Arturo Galletti ends his write-up thusly:

Quote
As a Celtics fan, I don't expect a lot out of this particular season from a basketball standpoint. I have, in fact, embraced my ongoing affair with the team from Texas in black, white and silver (KAWHI!) to keep me entertained. I do however look at the moves, the assets, the front office and feel a great deal of hope for the future of the franchise.

Suck it Laker fans. Schadenfreude!

For comparison, 11% is higher than the 10.3% chance that the team with the fifth-worst record has of ending up with the #1 pick in the NBA draft lottery.
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Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2014, 02:24:54 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Their projection assumes that Rondo is below average, and plays worse than Marcus smart.

All things measured by their once and future stat to end all stats.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2014, 02:26:39 PM »

Offline mef730

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Not a chance.  I'll take the over on that bet every day of the season and twice on, well, every day of the season.

Mike

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2014, 02:32:23 PM »

Online Donoghus

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Yeah, I'll take the over on that too.   I think something around 28-30 should be the O/U. 

Barring injury catastrophes, this team should win more than 25 games.  Although, I'm not sure how many more. 


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Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2014, 02:34:06 PM »

Offline Vox_Populi

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All things measured by their once and future stat to end all stats.
Yep.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2014, 02:38:18 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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What were their numbers from last year?
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Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2014, 02:55:40 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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What were their numbers from last year?

Edit: looks like 39 wins.

http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/the-celtics-the-coin-flip

http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/the-bsg-2013-14-nba-megapreview-the-wrap

So if they predict 39 and we get 25, it stands to reason that predicting 25 now means we'll get 39.  Brilliant!

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2014, 02:58:59 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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What were their numbers from last year?

Edit: looks like 39 wins.

http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/the-celtics-the-coin-flip

http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/the-bsg-2013-14-nba-megapreview-the-wrap

So if they predict 39 and we get 25, it stands to reason that predicting 25 now means we'll get 39.  Brilliant!

Among other missteps, they had Rondo playing a full season.

A little statistics can be a dangerous thing.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2014, 03:02:18 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Our team, on paper, was significantly better at the start of last year than this year. It's proof. MatheMagical Proof.
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Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2014, 03:12:48 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I predicted 28 wins in the other thread.

Rondo in or out has not made that much difference in wins and losses over the last few year.  I think 28 wins whether Rondo plays out the year or we trade him.  Any big trade that occurs mid season usually results in some backwards development so if Rondo or other key players are traded, even for better players (which is unlikely), we probably lose a couple more games as a result but no big swing.

I don't know what formula the Geeks use but in this case, seems about right to me.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2014, 03:12:52 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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What were their numbers from last year?

Edit: looks like 39 wins.

http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/the-celtics-the-coin-flip

http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/the-bsg-2013-14-nba-megapreview-the-wrap

So if they predict 39 and we get 25, it stands to reason that predicting 25 now means we'll get 39.  Brilliant!

Among other missteps, they had Rondo playing a full season.

A little statistics can be a dangerous thing.

What's weird is that we only won 41 the year before, so losing Pierce + KG and having a post-ACL Rondo was only supposed to cost us 2 wins?  Good stats modeling should be blind to stuff like that, but results like those should also indicate that the modeling is flawed.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2014, 03:17:54 PM »

Online Donoghus

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What were their numbers from last year?

Edit: looks like 39 wins.

http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/the-celtics-the-coin-flip

http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/the-bsg-2013-14-nba-megapreview-the-wrap

So if they predict 39 and we get 25, it stands to reason that predicting 25 now means we'll get 39.  Brilliant!

Among other missteps, they had Rondo playing a full season.

A little statistics can be a dangerous thing.

What's weird is that we only won 41 the year before, so losing Pierce + KG and having a post-ACL Rondo was only supposed to cost us 2 wins?  Good stats modeling should be blind to stuff like that, but results like those should also indicate that the modeling is flawed.

Yeah, I have absolutely no idea how they came up with that 39 wins record for last year.  Obviously a little hindsight is involved here but, still, how could you look at that roster turnover along with the young guys and no Rondo and predict 39?


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Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2014, 03:19:36 PM »

Offline blink

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I don't know, to my eye-test (extremely non-scientific) we have a better roster than last year.  How having a better roster doesn't equate to more wins is beyond me.

Re: Box Score Geeks predicts 25 wins, 11.6% chance of playoffs
« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2014, 03:19:49 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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They rate Humphries as I think a 5 win player in that projection, in just 1200 minutes. And in fact their numbers have him as a 6 win player in his 1376 minutes. Which is more productive than they rated KG in 2012-2013 by a wide margin.