Author Topic: The Official W/L Prediction Thread...2014 Edition  (Read 11149 times)

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Re: The Official W/L Prediction Thread...2014 Edition
« Reply #30 on: October 24, 2014, 05:26:36 PM »

Offline fantankerous

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27 wins.  Bottom five team.

Re: The Official W/L Prediction Thread...2014 Edition
« Reply #31 on: October 24, 2014, 05:44:12 PM »

Offline Kadin

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I'm gonna go big and predict a 40-win season. I don't mind being wrong, if I am. I guess we'll see!

Re: The Official W/L Prediction Thread...2014 Edition
« Reply #32 on: October 24, 2014, 06:00:09 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Someone in this forum is cheesing.  :P

Anything else would be an under-performance and/or Rondo didn't come to play at his level.

Take into consideration that our crappy team last year was on a 32-win pace before Lee was traded. I think we're significantly better right now.
Even with a healthy Rondo not being traded and everyone performing near 100% of his ability without any injuries, 35 wins is the upper limit. But this is a lot of "ifs".

Wow.  You have a pretty low opinion of everyone on this team's "100% of his ability".

I mean, think about what that would mean.   Rondo at 100% would be posting triple-doubles every night.   Sully at 100% seems to be an 18 point, 15 rebound beast.  Bradley at 100% seems to be a 40% 3PT shooter capable of posting 15-20 points and driving opposing guards insane on the other end of the court.   Green at 100% is a freak show.

How does a team with that kind of output only win 35 games?

The reality is of course that they _won't_ all be able to operate 100% all year because injuries will happen, some players won't complement each other well, some will have an off day here or there, etc., etc.  The question is really just what percentage of their ability will actually be realized.

It sounds like you expect a lot less than 100%.
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Re: The Official W/L Prediction Thread...2014 Edition
« Reply #33 on: October 24, 2014, 07:16:44 PM »

Offline tstorey_97

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38 wins should be a "median" for a team that has:

Rondo playing more/better
Thornton hitting late game $$ shots
Sully ringing up 31 foot (at least) 3 pointah's at more than a 27% clip

Kelly Olynyk "going Canadian" on the 76'ers some night and swanking them for 40 pointabos
Marcus Smart getting the above mentioned 76'ers for like...9 steals some night in March.
Zeller will get at least 7 blocks in that 6'ers game I'm referring to, I mean carnage, ok?

Turner will begin the season really well....then Ainge will redact the Jordan Crawford "you are messing with my draft position" regulation and trade him for some guys with big contracts who are hurt...but 38 is my numbah.



Re: The Official W/L Prediction Thread...2014 Edition
« Reply #34 on: October 24, 2014, 07:48:34 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Celtics should win between 30 and 32 games if they stay healthy. Less if the injuries stack up.

Re: The Official W/L Prediction Thread...2014 Edition
« Reply #35 on: October 25, 2014, 12:00:01 AM »

Offline chambers

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If it has to be a concrete number I'll stick with 29 wins.

Defense inside is going to be our biggest problem. 3 pointers are going to be harder to make with NBA defenses guarding them.

Stevens came out prepared in the preseason to try and get our confidence up for this horror first quarter stretch of the season.
I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed because against the pathetic line ups of pre season we looked pretty good.

That will change once we're playing NBA players that are in shape.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: The Official W/L Prediction Thread...2014 Edition
« Reply #36 on: October 25, 2014, 12:30:12 AM »

Offline chambers

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My reasoning from another thread which is relevant to this topic:

*No defensive big man ala Asik
*focus on three pointers- rarely goes well in the first season and we are going to put up a boat load of threes this season. I love the idea, but it will take one or two season to get the offense going smoothly to the point where these shots aren't forced and our guys learn to shoot half-contested three's.
*Smart has been given the green light to throw as many threes up as he wants.
*We will likely waive Will Bynum, who would have been a very good dribble penetration player for us. If we wanted to win more than anything, why wouldn't we keep him?
* Giving early minutes to James Young and Powell- these guys are going to get minutes this season when they belong in the D League. Sure they look okay against other D Leaguers in pre season but yeah...
*Spreading the defense out like Stevens wants to do is going to PUNISH Olynk and Sullinger inside against dribble penetration.

*Rondo still doesn't have a pick and roll big man other than Zeller.
*Jeff Green is still going to start and Evan Turner may start as well- what a disaster.

We are still going to be a jumpshooting/three point shooting team with no real inside offensive presence.


I don't understand why people can't see the difference between pre-season defense and shot selection vs regular season NBA games.

When you're a poor jumpshooting team, you don't win in the NBA.
Factor in that there will possibly be trades of Green, Bass an Thornton and our bench depth will be crucified if we lose Bass or Thornton.
*what team that wants to win gives Evan Turner a 2 year deal as a key piece of your season? He's only here because he's cheap and nasty and Danny wants to pull one over on some sucker for some other assets (if Turner looks better with the ball in his hands less in Stevens offense).

We are going to be pretty terrible again and if you think we're making the playoffs you're going to be sorely disappointed.
The general idea of these optimistic CBers is that Stevens offense is somehow going to turn us into a young version of the Spurs and that the passing, ball movement and three point shooting is the answer.
The Spurs have Tim Duncan or Tiago Splitter guarding the rim. They have one of the best point guards penetrating consistently as a triple threat, surrounded by three point shooters who can shoot in the face of the top 3 defenses in the NBA. (Heat, Chicago, Pacers).
All this shooting is designed as a way to get these stars open and get them the looks they want.

We don't have stars. We have one top 100 player who can't shoot threes.
There are four teams in the NBA with only 1 top 100 player.
The Lakers, the Knicks, the 76ers and the Celtics.
All four teams are going to be terrible- although depending how Bargani plays in the triangle- they may have two top 50 players by mid way through the season and start winning more.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: The Official W/L Prediction Thread...2014 Edition
« Reply #37 on: October 25, 2014, 01:46:41 AM »

Offline timpiker

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No rim protector and no crunch time stud equals 25 wins.  Max.

Re: The Official W/L Prediction Thread...2014 Edition
« Reply #38 on: October 25, 2014, 05:04:27 AM »

Offline LatterDayCelticsfan

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Are we really a 'poor' jump shooting team? We ain't the best in the league but surely all of Bradley, Green, Olynyk, Sullinger and Bass, have shown the ability to knock down jumpers at good efficiency.
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Re: The Official W/L Prediction Thread...2014 Edition
« Reply #39 on: October 25, 2014, 05:15:03 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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We don't have stars. We have one top 100 player who can't shoot threes.
There are four teams in the NBA with only 1 top 100 player.
The Lakers, the Knicks, the 76ers and the Celtics.
All four teams are going to be terrible- although depending how Bargani plays in the triangle- they may have two top 50 players by mid way through the season and start winning more.


Is that based on ESPN's rankings?

Re: The Official W/L Prediction Thread...2014 Edition
« Reply #40 on: October 25, 2014, 06:51:52 AM »

Offline greece66

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Someone in this forum is cheesing.  :P

Anything else would be an under-performance and/or Rondo didn't come to play at his level.

Take into consideration that our crappy team last year was on a 32-win pace before Lee was traded. I think we're significantly better right now.
Even with a healthy Rondo not being traded and everyone performing near 100% of his ability without any injuries, 35 wins is the upper limit. But this is a lot of "ifs".

Wow.  You have a pretty low opinion of everyone on this team's "100% of his ability".

I mean, think about what that would mean.   Rondo at 100% would be posting triple-doubles every night.   Sully at 100% seems to be an 18 point, 15 rebound beast.  Bradley at 100% seems to be a 40% 3PT shooter capable of posting 15-20 points and driving opposing guards insane on the other end of the court.   Green at 100% is a freak show.

How does a team with that kind of output only win 35 games?

The reality is of course that they _won't_ all be able to operate 100% all year because injuries will happen, some players won't complement each other well, some will have an off day here or there, etc., etc.  The question is really just what percentage of their ability will actually be realized.

It sounds like you expect a lot less than 100%.
By "performing near 100% of his ability" I meant in terms of effort, concentration, and lack of health issues. I did not mean them having the game of their lives over and over again. The way you put it, sure I agree they would get more than 35 wins.

Re: The Official W/L Prediction Thread...2014 Edition
« Reply #41 on: October 25, 2014, 06:54:24 AM »

Offline greece66

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My reasoning from another thread which is relevant to this topic:

*No defensive big man ala Asik
*focus on three pointers- rarely goes well in the first season and we are going to put up a boat load of threes this season. I love the idea, but it will take one or two season to get the offense going smoothly to the point where these shots aren't forced and our guys learn to shoot half-contested three's.
*Smart has been given the green light to throw as many threes up as he wants.
*We will likely waive Will Bynum, who would have been a very good dribble penetration player for us. If we wanted to win more than anything, why wouldn't we keep him?
* Giving early minutes to James Young and Powell- these guys are going to get minutes this season when they belong in the D League. Sure they look okay against other D Leaguers in pre season but yeah...
*Spreading the defense out like Stevens wants to do is going to PUNISH Olynk and Sullinger inside against dribble penetration.

*Rondo still doesn't have a pick and roll big man other than Zeller.
*Jeff Green is still going to start and Evan Turner may start as well- what a disaster.

We are still going to be a jumpshooting/three point shooting team with no real inside offensive presence.


I don't understand why people can't see the difference between pre-season defense and shot selection vs regular season NBA games.

When you're a poor jumpshooting team, you don't win in the NBA.
Factor in that there will possibly be trades of Green, Bass an Thornton and our bench depth will be crucified if we lose Bass or Thornton.
*what team that wants to win gives Evan Turner a 2 year deal as a key piece of your season? He's only here because he's cheap and nasty and Danny wants to pull one over on some sucker for some other assets (if Turner looks better with the ball in his hands less in Stevens offense).

We are going to be pretty terrible again and if you think we're making the playoffs you're going to be sorely disappointed.
The general idea of these optimistic CBers is that Stevens offense is somehow going to turn us into a young version of the Spurs and that the passing, ball movement and three point shooting is the answer.
The Spurs have Tim Duncan or Tiago Splitter guarding the rim. They have one of the best point guards penetrating consistently as a triple threat, surrounded by three point shooters who can shoot in the face of the top 3 defenses in the NBA. (Heat, Chicago, Pacers).
All this shooting is designed as a way to get these stars open and get them the looks they want.

We don't have stars. We have one top 100 player who can't shoot threes.
There are four teams in the NBA with only 1 top 100 player.
The Lakers, the Knicks, the 76ers and the Celtics.
All four teams are going to be terrible- although depending how Bargani plays in the triangle- they may have two top 50 players by mid way through the season and start winning more.

TP. Lots of good points here.

Re: The Official W/L Prediction Thread...2014 Edition
« Reply #42 on: October 25, 2014, 08:55:24 AM »

Offline mgent

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42 wins.  Top 20 offense.  Top 10ish defense.
Philly:

Anderson Varejao    Tiago Splitter    Matt Bonner
David West    Kenyon Martin    Brad Miller
Andre Iguodala    Josh Childress    Marquis Daniels
Dwyane Wade    Leandro Barbosa
Kirk Hinrich    Toney Douglas   + the legendary Kevin McHale

Re: The Official W/L Prediction Thread...2014 Edition
« Reply #43 on: October 25, 2014, 09:43:49 AM »

Offline Birdman

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27-55
C/PF-Horford, Baynes, Noel, Theis, Morris,
SF/SG- Tatum, Brown, Hayward, Smart, Semi, Clark
PG- Irving, Rozier, Larkin

Re: The Official W/L Prediction Thread...2014 Edition
« Reply #44 on: October 25, 2014, 09:43:55 AM »

Offline footey

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35 wins. Just enough to ensure a mediocre draft pick.