I do think this team will be better then expected. I think this team would have been fringe playoff team LAST YEAR. This year the easy has improved and I expect this team to be around +/- 35 wins. Ten more then last year and 3 short of the 38 that got the hawks the 8th seed. I think the east shakes out as follows:
1. Bulls
2. Cavs
3. Wiz
4. Raptors
5. Heat
6. Bobcats
7. Hawks
8. Pacers
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9. Pistons
10. Nets
11. Celtics
12. Knicks
13. Magic
14. Bucks
15. 76ers
I could flip 9-12 in any order with the Pacers barely holding onto the 8th seed. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Hawks go after Jeff Green at the trade deadline to solidify themselves for the playoffs. Either way ATL makes for a tough first round for the Cavs. This trade will likely take away any chance of a surprise Cs playoff push.
The Cs hole at center defensively is what separates them from the 7th and 8th seeds but their perimeter defense and depth will win them games.
Lots of good points in your post. I understand this is not your main point, but IMHO you really overestimate Indiana's chances of entering the playoffs. Nets, Pistons and NYK (in this order) have better chances.
I think Indiana is also going to be better than people think. They're well-coached, have a lot of experience, play good D and the main toxic lockerroom guy is gone.
They're gonna struggle like crazy to score and play some ugly games but they'll still compete for the playoffs unless they consciously decide to blow off the season via trades.
Believe me, Indiana is going to be bad...real bad.
Their highest scorer and best perimeter defender (Paul George) is out for the season.
Their second highest scorer and second best perimeter defender (Lance Stephenson) is gone.
That means the Pacer's have lost their two best scorers and their two best perimeter defenders. Their performance in both categories is going to do way downhill, and their offense was already horrible.
Right now Indiana's best player is David West, who is around 35 years old. Their second best player is Roy Hibbert, who they've been trying to trade for years reportedly.